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This week, it's all central banks in MORNING BID Europe
Gregor Stuart Hunter gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. You wait for central bank meetings to happen, but then they all come at once. Last week, the ECB was in charge. This week, however, we will see the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the Bank of Japan, make decisions on interest rates. The Fed's latest policy meeting is held with an historic challenge to the Fed's leadership still pending in courts, and a rush to confirm the nominee of President Donald Trump to fill a vacant seat on the Board of Governors. This should resolve questions about the central bank's autonomy that have been bubbling throughout the summer. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point cut on Wednesday but have lowered expectations of a 50-basis point reduction to only 3.8%. Stocks in Asia started the week with a 0.1% rise, despite the Japanese markets being closed. South Korea's Kospi index also hit a record, as the government dropped plans to raise taxes on capital gains. Early European trades saw the pan-regional futures up 0.11%. German DAX Futures were flat and FTSE Futures fell 0.1%. OAT futures continued to decline for a second consecutive day following Fitch's downgrade of France's credit ratings on Friday. The S&P 500 eminis U.S. Stock Futures are up 0.1% before Friday's Triple Witching Event, which will see the expiration of single-stock and equity index futures, as well options. The U.S. is preparing to announce an agreement on civil nuclear energy and technology during U.S. president Donald Trump's second unprecedented state visit to Britain this week. Meanwhile, the UK hopes that steel tariffs will be finalised under a much-vaunted international trade deal. Other trade news: U.S. officials and Chinese officials will continue their talks on Monday after concluding a first-day of discussions in Madrid. Trump said that he is still negotiating the divestiture date for the Chinese short-video application TikTok. A source told the U.S. was expected to extend the deadline of September 17 for China's ByteDance, to divest their U.S. Assets. The Chinese economy lost momentum in August as a number of indicators were below expectations. The industrial output of China grew at a slower pace than the 5.7% growth rate in the previous month. Retail sales also grew only 3.4% compared to a year earlier. There were also signs in China that the hot Labubu bubble was about to burst. Hong Kong shares of plushie maker Pop Mart fell as much as 9 percent after J.P. Morgan reduced the rating to neutral. The company said the stock was priced for perfection and susceptible to setbacks. Wall Street analysts expressed their disappointment at the lack of visibility of the next version of the brand. This includes the release date for new interactive toys or animations. Pop Mart, give the people what they desire! Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact Economic Data Eurozone trade balance for July Euro zone reserves for August Debt auctions: France: four-month, five-month, six-month and one year government debt auctions Germany: 1-year government debt auction
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China's crude steel production falls for the third consecutive month due to clean-air restrictions and slow demand
China's crude output of steel in August fell for the third consecutive month, as steelmakers in northern China curtailed operations in order to clean up the air in preparation for an early September military parade in Beijing and due to a seasonal drop in demand. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed on Monday that the world's biggest producer produced 77.37 millions metric tons of raw steel in August - the lowest level since December. The volume in August was 2.9% less than the previous month, when it had been 79.66 millions tons. Calculations based on data show that the average daily production in August was 2,57 million tonnes, down from 2,57 million tons in June. The top steelmaking hub in China, Tangshan (east of Beijing), was required to limit operations in order to maintain good air quality in time for the military parade that will take place in the capital, on the 3rd of September, to commemorate World War II's end. Data from the consultancy Mysteel revealed that hot metal production had fallen to its lowest level in over a month by late August. Steel production for the first eight-month period of this year totaled 671.81 millions tons, which is a decrease of 2.8% on an annual basis.
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China's property sector is struggling, and iron ore prices are falling.
Iron ore futures prices fell in the early trading on Monday due to persistent weakness in China's top consumer, its property sector. Steel benchmarks and steelmaking components, however, posted gains. As of 0215 GMT, the most traded January iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 0.5% to 794.5 Yuan ($111.54). The benchmark iron ore for September on the Singapore Exchange fell by 0.38% to $105.3 per ton. China's new house prices dropped by 0.3% from the previous month in August. This continues a downward trend which began in May 2023, and highlights ongoing weakness on the housing market. In China, however, the number of new bank loans rebounded after an unexpected decline in July. However, the recovery was less than expected as the government's efforts to reduce industrial overcapacity and the property slump continued to dampen demand for credit. China's crude-steel output fell 0.7% on an annual basis, and output in the first eight month of this year was 2.8% lower than the same period last. Analysts from ANZ said that iron ore futures still posted a third weekly gain in a row last week. This was due to renewed activity at steel mills in China following the end of environmental production restrictions relating to a military display. According to Chinese consultancy Mysteel, the domestic demand for construction steel will recover in September due to better weather conditions and improved financial health in certain non-real estate industries. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also increased in price, by 2.77% and a 3.07% respectively. Broker Hexun Futures stated in a report that coke and steel firms are increasing the restocking coking coal as Chinese National Day approaches. All steel benchmarks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained ground. Rebar increased by 0.26%. Hot-rolled coils rose by 0.21%. Wire rod gained 0.18%. Stainless steel grew 0.81%.
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Base metals are ranging with the focus on Sino-US Trade Talks and Fed rate movements
The price of base metals in Shanghai, London and New York was largely unchanged on Monday due to renewed concerns about trade tensions between two of the largest economies in the world. This offset optimism over a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. U.S. officials and Chinese officials are set to begin a second round of negotiations on Monday, after concluding their first day of discussions in Madrid on Sunday. The talks were aimed at repairing the strained ties between them. Washington has demanded that its allies impose tariffs on Chinese imports over their purchases of Russian crude oil. Meanwhile, Beijing launched an anti-discrimination probe into U.S. policy on trade over chips, and a separate inquiry into dumping. By 0247 GMT the SHFE copper edged up 0.09%. Nickel added 0.19%. Lead advanced 0.95%. Aluminium fell 0.17%. Zinc slipped 0.09%. Tin shed 0.43%. LME copper grew 0.05%. Aluminium grew 0.06%. Nickel fell 0.33%. Lead dropped 0.32%. Tin declined 0.69%. Zinc dipped by 0.05%. A series of disappointing data from China, the world's largest consumer, also weighed on sentiment. Analysts use the outstanding total social financing (TSF) as a measure of credit and liquidity in the economy. It is used to gauge industrial metals demand. In August, it rose by 8.8% compared to July's pace of 9.0%. China's new house prices dropped 0.3% from the previous months in August, showing that the housing sector continues to be a drag on the economy. Investors also focused on this week's U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting, where policymakers were expected to announce an interest rate cut after consecutive weak labor reports. Dollar-priced goods are cheaper for foreign buyers when the dollar is weaker. Click here to see the latest news in metals.
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Investors look at impact of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure to see if oil gains.
Investors weighed the impact of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, which could disrupt Russia's crude and fuel exports. They also looked at U.S. fuel demand growth. Brent crude futures rose 3 cents, to $67.02 per barrel at 0009 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude crude was up 8 cents at $62.77 per barrel. Both contracts gained more than 1% last week as Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including the largest oil exporting terminal Primorsk and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of the two largest refineries in Russia. In a note referring to the attack in Primorsk, JPMorgan analysts headed by Natasha Kaneva stated that "the attack indicates a growing willingness" to disrupt international oil market, which could add upward pressure to oil prices. Primorsk is the largest port of western Russia and has the capacity to load approximately 1 million barrels of crude oil per day. Surgutneftegaz operates the Kirishi refinery which processes approximately 17.7 million tons of Russian crude per year (355 000 bpd), or 6.4% of its total. Radiy Khabirov, the regional governor of Bashkortostan in Russia, said that despite Saturday's drone attack an oil company will continue to produce at its current levels. As U.S. president Donald Trump reiterated Sunday that he was willing to impose sanction on Russia, Europe must act in a manner commensurate to the United States. "Europe buys oil from Russia." Trump told reporters that he didn't want Europe to buy oil. "I don't want them to buy oil," Trump told reporters on Sunday. Investors will also be watching the U.S. and China trade talks that began in Madrid on Sunday, amid Washington's demand that its allies impose tariffs on imports of Chinese oil due to its purchase by China. The Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates at its meeting on September 16-17. However, last week's softer data regarding job creation and inflation raised concerns over the economic growth of the U.S. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman; Florence Tan is the reporter)
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Trump's visit to Britain will see the signing of a nuclear power agreement between the US and Britain
The British government announced that during Donald Trump's visit to the United States this week, Britain and the United States would sign an agreement to boost nuclear power together, which will help secure funding for new plants. The British government has been pushing to expand the use of nuclear energy in recent months. It has pledged to invest 19 billion dollars in a new Sizewell C plant and is advancing plans to have a Rolls-Royce division build Britain's first small-modular reactors. Trump will arrive in Britain on Tuesday for a 2-day visit, where he and Keir starmer, the Prime Minister of Britain, will announce their nuclear power partnership. The collaboration aims at accelerating new projects and investment, including plans that are expected to be announced from U.S. Nuclear reactor company X-Energy (and Britain's Centrica) to build up 12 advanced modular nuclear reactors in Northeast England. The statement also said that a 15 billion-pound project, powered by SMRs, to build advanced data centres in central England, at the former Cottam Coal-fired Power Station, was set to be announced soon by the U.S. firm Holtec International and France's EDF, along with real estate partner Tritax. Starmer stated on Monday that "these major commitments put us on a course for a golden age in nuclear power, which will reduce household bills over the long term." When Trump and Starmer met in Scotland at the U.S. President's golf club in July, they discussed working together more closely on SMRs. In a statement, U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright stated that "Today's deals will create a framework for commercial access both in the U.S.A. and UK". The new tie-up covers nuclear regulation. If a reactor passes safety tests in one country then the other can use those findings to support their own checks. This will reduce the licensing time from three to four to two years. Chris O'Shea, Group CEO of Centrica, commented on the new partnership with X-Energy. He said that it would create a low-carbon, resilient energy system. J. Clay Sell, CEO of X-Energy said Hartlepool is the best place to scale up its technology in Britain, given its skilled workforce and local service. Simone Rossi CEO of EDF UK said that the plan will benefit energy security. Holtec CEO Kris Singh stated that the plan will create thousands of jobs in Michigan by leveraging the lessons learned from the Palisades Project in Michigan. Rolls-Royce announced that it has entered the U.S. regulation process for its SMR. This could lead to new jobs and investments in the U.S. Urenco, a UK-based company, is expected to announce a deal to supply uranium of varying levels of enrichment to the U.S. ($1 = 0.7377 pound) (Reporting and editing by Helen Popper; Sarah Young)
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Australia faces cascading climate risks, government report says
A government climate report released on Monday said that Australia would experience extreme climate events more often - and sometimes simultaneously. This will put severe strain on the health and emergency services as well as critical infrastructure, primary industries and other sectors. The National Climate Risk Assessment Report warned that no Australian community would be immune to climate risks, which will cascade, compound and occur simultaneously. In a recent statement, Energy Minister Chris Bowen stated that "while we cannot avoid climate impacts any longer, every action taken today to achieve net zero by the year 2050 will help us avoid the worst effects on Australian businesses and communities." Bowen noted that the report is the first comprehensive assessment on the risks of climate change in Australia. It shows that the northern part of the country, remote areas and the outer suburbs of large cities are particularly vulnerable. Bowen stated that "Australians already live with the effects of climate change but it is clear that every degree of warming prevented now will help future generation avoid the worst impact in years to come." Bowen also announced a national adaptation plan, which would guide Australia's responses to the findings of the report. Bowen said that the plan would provide a framework to help federal, state, and local governments better coordinate their actions. Bowen stated that the government will announce the next step of its plans soon to reduce carbon emissions, and set an "ambitious and achievable target" for 2035. Since its election in 2022 the center-left Labor Government has invested A$3.6 billion (2.39 billion dollars) into climate-adaptation programs. It aims to reduce carbon emissions by 43 percent by 2030, and achieve net-zero emission levels by 2050. Clean energy advocates considered the previous conservative government to be a global laggard in its emission policies. Reporting by Peter Hobson and Renju José in Canberra; editing by Jamie Freed.
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Iraq signs joint operating agreement with France TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy LNG
The Iraqi Prime Minister's Office announced on Sunday that the Iraqi oil ministry had signed a joint operating agreement with France TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy LNG, as well as Iraq's Basra Oil Company. This deal relates to the operation of Artawi Oilfield as part of Gas Growth Integrated Project. The GGIP is an initiative by QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies in collaboration with Basra Oil Company. It aims to improve Iraq’s electricity supply. The GGIP also includes renewable energy project. QatarEnergy released a statement shortly afterwards, stating that the CEO of the company and State Minister for Energy Saad al-Kaabi had met with Iraqi Prime Minster Mohammed Shia al-Sudani on Sunday and TotalEnergies' CEO Patrick Pouyanne to announce the beginning of construction of phase two of the Artawi Oil Field Development Project and the Common Seawater Supply Project. According to a Qatari press release, the CSSP will process and transport up to 5 million barrels per day of seawater to the main oilfields in southern Iraq. TotalEnergies and ENKA Construction, a Turkish company, signed a separate deal to build a central oil-and-gas processing facility in Iraq. The facility will have a daily capacity of 210,000 barrels and 163 millions standard cubic feet. TotalEnergies signed a deal with China's Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corp to build a plant for gas processing in southern Iraq. The plant will have a capacity of 600,000,000 standard cubic feet/day. The French company has also signed a contract with Hyundai Engineering and Construction of South Korea to build a seawater-treatment plant in southern Iraq, with a capacity of 7.5 millions barrels per day. Sudani made a statement at the event to welcome the increase in foreign investment.
Gold prices fall as dollar strengthens ahead of Fed rate decision
Gold prices fell on Monday due to profit-taking, a rise in the dollar and investors' anticipation of a U.S. Federal Reserve Meeting, where rate cuts are expected after a string of poor labour market reports.
As of 0152 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $3,633.86 an ounce. Bullion rose about 1.6% in the last week and reached a record-high of $3,673.95 per ounce on Tuesday.
U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell by 0.4% to $3671.30.
"Gold looked overbought from a technical perspective, which led to some profit-taking at the start of this week." "The dollar's resilience is also a factor that works against gold," said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.
The U.S. Dollar Index edged up 0.1%, making greenback priced bullion costlier for overseas buyers.
The relative strength index of gold is currently at 75. This suggests that the metal has been overbought. The RSI, a momentum indicator, ranges between 0 and 100. Readings above 70 indicate 'overbought conditions', which means the asset is likely overpriced, or due for a correction.
Waterer stated that "a period of consolidation for gold is possible, and any pullbacks to support at $3.500 would attract buyers as long as the Fed maintains its dovish stance."
Inflation data released last Thursday came in slightly above expectations, but market believes this will not deter the Fed from a widely anticipated quarter-percentage-point rate cut on Wednesday.
The Fed's meeting on policy this week is taking place amid challenges. These include a legal dispute about its leadership, and the efforts to confirm Donald Trump's nominee for the Board of Governors.
Goldman Sachs wrote in a Friday note that while the risks of our forecast for $4,000/toz by mid-2026 are skewed upwards, the increasing speculative duration increases the risk of a tactical pullback, since positioning tends towards mean-reversion.
In the week ending September 9, speculators reduced their gold net long position by 2,445 contracts, to 166 417.
Other metals, such as spot silver, were unchanged at $42.14 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.5% to 1,397.76, while palladium fell 0.9% to $1187.06.
(source: Reuters)