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China's iron ore imports in January and February will fall as cyclones affect Australian supply

Analysts predict that iron ore imports for China's top consumer in the first two months 2025 will decline due to tropical cyclones, bad weather and other factors affecting shipments from Australia, a major producer.

Analysts said that imports of the main steelmaking ingredient are expected to be 10% lower in January and Febraury than the 209,45 million metric tonnes imported during the same period last.

Kpler, a ship tracking service, estimates that Chinese iron ore exports in January and February were 191.7 million metric tons. This is a 10.4% drop year-over-year.

In the first two months 2025, cyclones and bad weather are expected to cause a drop of 8-20 million tons of iron ore shipments coming from Australia. Australia is the source of nearly two-thirds (or more) of China's supply.

Pei Hao is a senior analyst with international brokerage Freight Investor Services.

The official import data for February and January will be released on March 7. China releases the data from both months in one go to reduce the impact of Lunar New Year holidays.

Rio Tinto announced last month that heavy rains following Cyclone Sean would affect its first quarter shipments. It said it would provide an update to the market when it releases its results.

Before Zelia, the latest tropical storm, forced the miner's port to close this week. Zelia made landfall in Australia's west on Friday.

BHP and Fortescue have suspended their Port Hedland operation for safety reasons. Fortescue also announced that it had closed its Iron Bridge mine and cancelled non-essential trips to Pilbara sites.

Rio Tinto has announced that it has closed its Cape Lambert and Dampier ports and no ships or trains are operating in these ports.

The new tariffs imposed by U.S. president Donald Trump have caused prices to fall.

FIS' Pei stated that the ore price upside is limited, with a maximum of $115 per ton. Trump's tariffs will likely have a negative impact on demand. Reporting by Amy Lv and Melanie Burton from Beijing; editing by Eileen Soreng

(source: Reuters)