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Chile's mining firm expects another global lithium surplus this year

Production cutbacks by lithium companies in response to low costs for the metal have tightened supply forecasts, however a worldwide surplus is still expected for 2024 and 2025, Chilean copper commission Cochilco stated on Thursday.

The global market was expected to post a surplus of 89,000 lots of lithium in 2024 and 141,000 lots in 2025, according to a. report from Cochilco, Chile's government firm for mining. studies. Chile is the world's second-biggest producer of lithium, a secret. part for electric vehicle batteries. U.S.-based Albemarle. and Chile's SQM are the only business. extracting lithium in the South American nation.

The strong lithium supply would place the marketplace balance. in 2024 and 2025 in surplus, the report stated, adding that. supply and need are expected to be more well balanced as quickly as. 2027.

With lithium prices down as much as 78% for many years,. there has actually been a supply reaction with cutbacks and a slowdown in. both greenfield and brownfield tasks, which has brought. forward forecasts of a market rebalancing towards 2027-28, the. report stated.

It noted that lithium rates in the September-November. duration were so low that they might have reached a floor.

Cochilco stated the country was expected to have actually produced. about 285,000 metric lots of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). in 2024, a figure set to increase to 305,000 loads in 2025.

The report kept in mind that other nations are expected to end up being. more significant worldwide lithium players.

Zimbabwe was anticipated to have actually produced 75,000 heaps in 2024,. about 6% of the international supply, while Mali's Goulamina and. Congo's Manono mines were forecast to substantially increase. production in the next few years.

Argentina was forecast to produce more than 100,000 tons of. lithium in 2026 as large jobs come online, and attract. financial investment due to rewards under libertarian President Javier. Milei. Cochilco likewise flagged risks connected to the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, who was sworn in on Monday, and has. threatened to enforce broad import tariffs.

The outcomes of the U.S. elections are a major source of. uncertainty for products ... due to concerns that the tariffs. proposed by the new (U.S.) president will minimize worldwide growth,. Cochilco stated.

The heavy reliance on lithium consumption in China, a. country that is involved in trade disputes with the United. States and the European Union, which could intensify, has actually created. extra negative pressure on its cost..

(source: Reuters)