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Australian business profits' decrease to accelerate this year, says UBS

Australian companies will likely post a steeper drop in profit this year than they did in 2015, as they struggle to match the 'abnormally high' earnings since the COVID19 pandemic, UBS stated on Tuesday.

The revenues at companies listed on the benchmark S&P ASX 200 index are most likely to decline 3.5% in fiscal 2024, steeper than the 2.9% decline in 2015, the brokerage estimated.

Agreement experts anticipate earnings to fall again this year as business continue to come off the high earnings base they set through the COVID years, UBS analysts wrote in a note.

Mining giant Rio Tinto is set to kick off the revenues season on July 31, while other bellwether stocks such as BHP Group and Fortescue will report during the last week of August.

UBS anticipates the biggest drag to come from the heavyweight banking, consumer staples and merchants sectors as they come off last year's profits peak.

The leaders, states UBS, are likely to emerge among insurers, due to improved profitability, and business with U.S. exposure, who must gain from a weaker Australian dollar.

The ASX 200 has risen 4.7% up until now this year and struck a record high in mid-July. It increased 7.8% over the entire of 2023.

UBS, however, stated that due to the stretched assessments of the business, broad-based share price upside will not be easy through this results season.

It said that the business projections for the rest of this will be crucial to setting the scene for stocks for the next six months.

(source: Reuters)