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Russell: India's sponge iron boom will save South African coal
It's been difficult to find thermal coal exporters in recent years, given the soft prices and lower demand from China and India. For Indonesian miners, it was also difficult because of the uncertainty surrounding government policy. One group of coal exporters seems to be quite optimistic. South Africa's coal miners look forward to increased demand from India, their biggest buyer. They also anticipate improvements in rail infrastructure which will enable them to increase volumes. The coal that South African producers are seeing a high demand for, however, is not the coal used for electricity generation. Instead, it's for industrial processes like making sponge iron or cement. Last week, the South African Coal Conference was held in Cape Town by McCloskey and OPIS. The main message was that South Africa is finally restoring its rail network, and as much as six million metric tonnes more coal will be transported in 2026. South Africa's coal exported in 2025 was 60.96 millions tons, according to commodity analysts Kpler. Half of that amount went to India. It was up from 58.13 millions tons in 2024, and the third consecutive year of growth. However, it is still short of the 77.2 Million recorded in 2018. South Africa's miner are confident of a growing market if they can increase exports from around 45 million tons to 65 millions in 2026. India is the largest producer of sponge-iron, an intermediate between iron ore (ore) and crude steel. According to the Sponge Iron Manufacturers Association it produced about 55.7 millions tons in fiscal year 2024-25. Analysts estimate this could rise to 75 million tons by 30 given India's high demand for steel. South African coal meets the requirements for producing each ton of sponge-iron. The most efficient way to produce sponge iron is by using coal with an energy level of 5,000-?5,500 kilocalories (kcal/kg). South Africa has an advantage on the basis of delivered costs over Australia, Russia and U.S. mines, despite producing similar quality coal. Indonesia is the largest coal exporter in the world. It produces lower energy coal that is very popular among Indian electric utilities, as it is less expensive than other grades. South Africa, which has little competition from Indonesia as a supplier, is preferred by India's producers of sponge iron, who are unable to obtain enough domestic coal because policy dictates power companies take priority. The additional coal consumption if sponge iron production increases by 20 million tonnes per year by 2030 is 24 million tonnes. South Africa is unable to meet the demand alone, but the exporters of the country will sell any volume they can due to the high demand. CEMENT HELPS India's cement manufacturers also depend on coal imported from other countries. They also expect their output to rise, going from 453 millions tons in fiscal year 2024-25 to around 480 in the current 12-month period. Although cement production is less energy-intensive than the production of sponge iron, up to 250kg of coal are required to produce a ton. The increase in cement production will result in a rise of several million tons per year for India's coal consumption. However, the domestic market will not be able meet the entire demand, so imports will again become a major factor. This demand is likely to spark a rise in coal prices. They dropped to four-year levels in the middle last year and have only modestly recovered since. China, Japan, South Korea and other developed economies in North Asia will play a major role. As Japan and South Korea reduce coal-fired electricity generation, and China continues its rapid rollout of renewables, it's likely the demand for high quality thermal coal will remain flat or?trending lower. Even if the seaborne price is relatively stable, South Africa’s exporters will still be able sell as much as they can given their relative advantage. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by Christian Schmollinger).
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RPT-Angola wants to own 20%-30% of De Beers, a senior official has said
Angola wants to buy a 20-30% stake in Anglo American De Beers' diamond division. This proposal is currently being discussed with other African diamond producing nations, according to a senior official of the Angola mining ministry. Anglo has put De Beers up for sale amid the falling prices of diamonds and the rise of synthetic diamonds. Angola made a bid in October 2025 for a majority share in De Beers, although it originally sought a minor stake. Paulo Tanganha is the national director for mineral resources in Angola. He said at the African mining conference held in Cape Town that "taking the majority stake in luxury commodities can be very risky because it depends on market conditions." To de-risk this, we need to have a part of our economy that is sustainable. We are pleased with the range of between 20% and 30%. NEIGHBOURS TALK IN PRIVACY Angola’s bid for a majority share in De Beers has set up the country for a possible bidding war against Botswana. Botswana owns 15% in De Beers, and it has stated that it is working to acquire a majority interest in the company. Tanganha stated that discussions were ongoing behind closed doors between Botswana and Angola as well as Namibia and South Africa in order to find a consensus on the benefits each country could gain from owning De Beers. However, no agreement has yet been reached. "There's a saying that says: Together we are stronger. We are doing this. If my?neighbour suffers, then I too will suffer. We must fight as a united team, Tanganha said. Tanganha stated that the government of Angola would purchase De Beers shares from state-owned diamond mining company Endiama as well as its national diamond trading firm Sodiam. Tanganha has not disclosed how Angola will fund the acquisition of the De Beers stake but stated that the country has many sources for funding. Anglo announced on Thursday that it would be reviewing the value the De Beers diamonds after the production of rough diamonds for 2025 dropped. De Beers and Endiama's joint Angolan venture discovered a kimberlite group in the country last year. It was the first discovery of this kind in over 30 years, proving the promise that the vastly unexplored country holds geologically. Kimberlite, a rare type of rock where diamonds can be found, is the most common. (Written by Olivia Kumwenda Mtambo, edited by Helen Popper).
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MORNING Bid EUROPE - Japan markets welcome the chance to have a long-staying PM
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The markets like it when there is a political event. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first woman Prime Minister, blew the competition out of the water in the election. This sparked a rally of 4.5% in the Nikkei index to "all-time" highs. The index actually broke 55,000, 56, 000, and 57,000 in a single go. The LDP's best ever result was a resounding victory as it took 316 out of 465 seats at the lower house of parliament. Takaichi, together with its coalition partner Japan Innovation Party, controls 352 seats, a supermajority two-thirds. If Takaichi follows through on her election promises, this will open the door to more defence spending, tax reductions, corporate reform, and a reflationary strategy in general. Two-year JGB yields reached their highest level since 1996, at 1.3%. The yen was already sold in anticipation of victory. So the knee-jerk adjustment to the position helped the currency make a modest recovery. The dollar dropped around 0.3%, to 156.80yen. Meanwhile, the euro and Swiss Francs slid from their early record highs. In the longer term, Japan may have a leader and government that will last 'for more than one year or two, providing a period of welcome stability in a time when geopolitical changes are tearing at its foundations. The Mandelson scandal claimed another victim, and Prime Minister Starmer had to bid his chief adviser goodbye over the weekend. There is still no clarity on whether Starmer will be able to hold onto power or who would succeed him if the party were to remove him. This leaves gilts susceptible to periodic debt fears. The carnage of leveraged momentum play seems to have slowed down for the time being, with the price of silver rising another 3%, and Bitcoin remaining steady, if a little bit drunk. The payrolls report, retails sales and CPI are all expected to be released this week due to delays in U.S. data. This could be a first. Forecasts vary from a 10% drop to 135,000 jobs, due to statistical quirks and the birth-death models. Analysts assume that there will also be significant downward revisions in the payroll levels for last year. Markets are heavily pricing in a rate cut from the Fed for June, so any positive surprise would have a huge impact. Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, as does board member Philip Lane. Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann is speaking - Fed speakers are governors Christopher Waller, Stephen Miran and Fed Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic
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BHP Vicuna's investment in Argentina copper project could double to $800 million in 2026 according to executive
A company executive stated that Vicuna Corp., located in the Andes Mountains at more than 4,200 meters above the sea level, on the Argentina-Chile Border, is aiming to double its investment in this year's one of the biggest copper bets in the world. Caterina Dzugala, communications director at Vicuna Corp. (formed by BHP Australia and Lundin Mining Canada) said that the company could invest up to $800 million in the Filo del Sol mine and Josemaria Mine this year. Both projects may be the most important copper developments in history. "In 2025 almost $400 million were invested...and we aim to double that number this year," Dzugala stated during a visit to the Batidero Camp, the project's operating base in San Juan Province. According to the company, the projects make up the Vicuna District. This is one of the largest undeveloped copper, gold, and silver deposits in the world. Vicuna estimates the total investment at around $5 billion. However, local officials and industry experts put it as high as $15 Billion. The company refused to confirm the final amount before a technical report integrated due in the second quarter. Since the Alumbrera Mine closed in 2018, Argentina hasn't produced copper. The country is attempting to re-enter global markets as governments and automakers warn about looming shortages of this metal, which is critical for electrification. A February afternoon sees the sun setting over Vicuna, a project where thin air, sudden weather changes, and other daily challenges are part of operations. Oxygen levels are drastically reduced at that altitude. Before visiting the site, visitors must undergo a medical screening. As crews travel along the rough mountain roads, they sort newly extracted samples. The camp is built to accommodate more than 1,000 workers in a harsh landscape of foxes roaming free and vicunas. The project will begin in 2030. Both mines will process concentrate in a central facility in Josemaria. This plant has a lifespan estimated at 25 years. A Strategic Bet The flagship copper project in Argentina is progressing as Javier Milei tries to attract foreign investment through generous incentives for the mining industry. Vicuna applied to be part of the government's Large Investment Incentive Program (RIGI), a program that offers tax and legal advantages to major export projects. According to the company, these deposits contain 13 million metric tonnes of copper measured and 25 millions inferred along with significant gold?and argent resources. Even so, the construction of roads and powerlines in the high Andes is a difficult task. There are debates over who should bear the burden, the government or private companies. Juan Arrieta is the geology manager at Vicuna. He believes that the value of Vicuna lies in what has yet to be proved. Arrieta stated that "the Filo del Sol district is four times bigger than Josemaria," adding that it "has been described by many as the biggest discovery in the last 30 year worldwide, when it comes to resources." Lucila Sigal reported; Cassandra Garrison, David Gregorio and Cassandra Garrison edited.
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Iron ore prices fall as concerns about disruptions in Australian supply ease
Iron ore futures in Dalian fell for the sixth time on Monday, as concerns over supply disruptions subsided after the Australian hub port resumed operations after a cyclone alert. As of 0258 GMT, the most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was trading 0.33% lower. It was 762.5 Yuan ($109.98). The benchmark March ore traded on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.72% to $99.75 per ton. Singapore's benchmark dropped below $100 per ton, as the demand in China slowed before the Lunar New Year holiday. Data from Steelhome, released on 6 February, showed that iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports increased by 0.58%. Portside stocks have been increasing in recent weeks, as the industry moves into the seasonal shutdown phase. The operator of Western Australia's Port Hedland said that the 'world's largest iron-ore export hub' resumed its operations at 12 noon on Sunday, after it was cleared by Friday as Tropical Cyclone Mitchell developed near the coasts of the resource rich Pilbara region. A report from ANZ Research on Monday said that this is the first major cyclone disruption in Pilbara for 2018. This follows a particularly active cyclone period between 2024 and 2025. The 'Port of Port Hedland' has resumed its operations. However, Ashburton and the other ports in the Pilbara region, such as Cape Preston West, Dampier and Varanus Island, remain closed. An alert will be sent out once it is safe for them to reopen. After six cities issued air pollution alerts on February 8, the Hebei region, China's main steel-making region, has sparked concerns over production?cuts that will further reduce feedstock demand. Coking coal and coke, which are both used in steelmaking, fell by 0.87% and 1.10%, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Hot-rolled coils softened by 0.49% and stainless steel by 0.74%. Wire rod, meanwhile, hardened by 0.18%. $1 = 6.9333 Yuan (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Ruth Chai)
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Oil prices drop as US and Iran commit to continuing talks
The oil prices dropped on Monday, after the U.S. &?Iran committed to continuing talks about the Middle Eastern producer’s nuclear 'programme. This eased concerns over a potential conflict that could disrupt the supply from the area. Brent crude futures dropped 49 cents or 0.72% to $67.56 per barrel at 0134 GMT, after closing up 50 cents Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $63.13 per barrel, down by 42 cents or 0.66% after a 26-cent increase at Friday's settlement. Tony Sycamore, IG's market analyst, said that crude oil prices have eased a bit in early trading this week. The market is relived by the positive outcome of the U.S. and Iran nuclear talks?in Oman. The immediate fear of disruptions to supply in the Middle East has been reduced quite a lot with more talks at the horizon. Iran and the U.S. have pledged to continue indirect nuclear talks after what both sides described as positive discussions on Friday in Oman despite differences. This allayed fears that failure to reach an agreement could push the Middle East closer to war, as the U.S. had positioned more forces in the region. Investors worry about disruptions in supply coming from Iran and regional producers, as about a fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Last week, both benchmarks declined by more than 2% on the back of a lowering of tensions. This was their first drop in seven weeks. Tehran's Foreign Minister said that Tehran will not be a threat to the United States. Strike U.S. bases If U.S. forces attack the Middle East, it shows that the threat of war is still present. Investors continue to struggle with the efforts to reduce Russian oil exports to pay for its war against Ukraine. On Friday, the European Commission proposed a Ban on sweeping Any services that support the seaborne crude oil imports of Russia. India's refiners, once the largest buyers of Russian seaborne crude oil, are now a growing market. avoiding purchases Refining and Trade sources said that they expect to avoid such trades until April, and this could help New Delhi sign a trade agreement with Washington. Baker Hughes reported Friday that U.S. Energy firms added more capacity last week, a sign of rising energy prices. Oil and Natural Gas Rigs For the first time in November, it was a third consecutive week.
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Three people are killed and a Catholic priest is abducted by gunmen in Northern Nigeria
Church and police sources confirmed that gunmen attacked the residence of a Catholic priest in Kaduna, a northern Nigerian state early Sunday morning. They killed three people as well as abducted several others. The?assault on Saturday in Kauru District highlights the persistent insecurity of the region. It came just days after security forces rescued all 166 worshippers who were abducted by gunmen in attacks against two churches in Kaduna. These attacks have attracted the attention of U.S. president Donald Trump who has accused Nigeria's government, Abuja, of failing to protect Christians. U.S. troops struck what they 'described as terrorist targets' in northwestern Nigeria, on December 25, The Catholic Diocese Kafanchan has named the abducted clergyman Nathaniel Asuwaye. He is the parish priest at Holy Trinity Catholic Church, Karku. They also said that 10 other people were taken. The diocese released a statement saying that three residents were killed in the attack. It began at about 3:20 am (0220 GMT). The Kaduna Police spokesperson confirmed the incident. He said that five people were abducted and three of them died. He said that security agents had exchanged gunfire and killed some bandits. Unfortunately, two soldiers?and one police officer died. Amnesty International, a rights group, said that Nigeria's security situation was "increasingly out of control" in a Sunday statement. Amnesty International accused the Nigerian government of "gross negligence" and failing to protect civilians as gunmen terrorised, killed and abducted rural communities in several northern states. No one from the White House could be reached immediately for comment. Pope Leo expressed his solidarity with victims of recent Nigerian attacks during his weekly address in St. Peter's Square. Leo stated, "I hope the competent authorities continue to act with a determination to ensure security and protection for every citizen's lives." (Reporting Ado Hazzard and Hamza Ibrahm; Additional reporting Crispian Balmer, Rome; Writing Ben Ezeamalu and Editing Emelia Sithole Matarise and Helen Popper).
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Angola wants to own 20%-30% of De Beers, a senior official has said
Angola wants to take a 20-30% stake in Anglo American’s diamond unit De Beers. This proposal is being discussed with African countries that produce diamonds, according to a senior official of the Angola mining ministry. Anglo has put De Beers up for sale amid the falling prices of diamonds and the rise of synthetic diamonds. Angola made a bid in October 2025 for a majority share in?De Beers, although it originally sought a minor stake. Paulo Tanganha is the national director of minerals for Angola. He said at the African mining conference held in Cape Town that "taking the majority stake in luxury commodities is very risky because it depends on market." To de-risk this, we need to have a portion of the?economy that is sustainable. We are pleased that the range is between 20-30%. NEIGHBOURS ARE HOLDING CLOSED DOOR?TALKS Angola’s bid to acquire a majority stake of De Beers has set up the country for a possible bidding war against Botswana. Botswana owns 15% and said that it is working towards acquiring a majority stake. Tanganha stated that discussions were ongoing behind closed doors between Botswana and Angola as well as Namibia and South Africa in order to find a consensus on the benefits each country could gain from owning a stake in De Beers. However, no agreement has yet been reached. "There's a saying that says: Together we are stronger. We are doing this. If my neighbour suffers, then I too will suffer. We have to fight as a unit and be united," Tanganha explained. Tanganha stated that the government of Angola would purchase the De Beers stake from the state-owned diamond mining company Endiama as well as its national diamond trading firm Sodiam. Tanganha has not disclosed how Angola will fund the acquisition of De?Beers shares but stated that the country has many sources for funding. Anglo announced on Thursday that it would be reviewing the value and future of De Beers' diamond business, after the production of rough diamonds for 2025 dropped. De Beers and Endiama's joint Angolan venture discovered a new cluster of kimberlite in the country last year. This was the first discovery made in over 30 years, proving the promise that the country holds in terms of geology. Kimberlite, a rare type of rock where diamonds can be found, is the most common. (Writing and editing by Helen Popper; Olivia Kumwenda Mtambo)
Australian business profits' decrease to accelerate this year, says UBS
Australian companies will likely post a steeper drop in profit this year than they did in 2015, as they struggle to match the 'abnormally high' earnings since the COVID19 pandemic, UBS stated on Tuesday.
The revenues at companies listed on the benchmark S&P ASX 200 index are most likely to decline 3.5% in fiscal 2024, steeper than the 2.9% decline in 2015, the brokerage estimated.
Agreement experts anticipate earnings to fall again this year as business continue to come off the high earnings base they set through the COVID years, UBS analysts wrote in a note.
Mining giant Rio Tinto is set to kick off the revenues season on July 31, while other bellwether stocks such as BHP Group and Fortescue will report during the last week of August.
UBS anticipates the biggest drag to come from the heavyweight banking, consumer staples and merchants sectors as they come off last year's profits peak.
The leaders, states UBS, are likely to emerge among insurers, due to improved profitability, and business with U.S. exposure, who must gain from a weaker Australian dollar.
The ASX 200 has risen 4.7% up until now this year and struck a record high in mid-July. It increased 7.8% over the entire of 2023.
UBS, however, stated that due to the stretched assessments of the business, broad-based share price upside will not be easy through this results season.
It said that the business projections for the rest of this will be crucial to setting the scene for stocks for the next six months.
(source: Reuters)