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Questions are raised about some trades made ahead of Trump's policy changes
Experts have questioned whether some of Donald Trump's most important policy decisions were preceded by well timed bets. This is a list. March 23, 2026: IRAN ATTACK pause. An unidentified trader or traders placed $500 million in bets on Brent and WTI futures within a minute, shortly before Trump announced that he would delay the?attacks against Iran's energy infrastructure for five days. After Trump's announcement, oil prices dropped 15%. LSEG data indicates that between 1049 and 10:00 GMT,?5,100?? lots changed hands. Selling dominated volume. Trump's announcement on social media at 1105 GMT caused over 13,000 lots, or 13 million barrels, to trade in just 60 seconds. Brent fell to $99 from $112 per barrel and WTI to $86 from $99. February 28, 2026 – IRAN STRIKES KILLED SUPREME LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI Wagers made on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi prior to the death of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ayatollah Khamenei heightened scrutiny over prediction markets. Democratic lawmakers called for a ban on wagers that are tied to military action, which could reward those who have privileged information. A review of Polymarket’s website revealed that at the time, $529 million had been wagered on a variety of contracts tied to timing of U.S. - Israeli strikes against Iran. Another $150 million had been staked on Khamenei’s removal as supreme ruler. Prediction markets allow users to wager on real-world events through a range of tradable contracts. Bubblemaps, an analytics firm, identified six accounts which made a total profit of $1.2 million from Polymarket bets funded just hours before the raids on February 28. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin from California highlighted one particular Polymarket bet that was placed just before the Iran strike. Separately traders moved the opposite way on February 27 despite hotter than expected inflation data, which would normally prompt investors to sell long-dated Treasuries. They pushed yields on 10-year notes below 4%. Analysts say that such a shift to safe-haven assets is usually driven by macroeconomic events which are negative or imminent. The Dow Jones U.S. Airlines Index fell 5.13% that day, as oil prices increased. January 3, 2026 -- U.S. CAPTURE OF FORMER VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT NICOLASMADURO An unknown trader made a profit of approximately $410,000 in January after betting on the ouster Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Before the weekend raid on Maduro’s Caracas compound by U.S. Special Forces, a trader’s account at Polymarket had built up contracts that were?tied to Maduro’s removal. The terms implied high odds. These wagers, which were worth approximately $34,000 before his capture, soared in value when news of the U.S. military action broke on January 3. Trading data shows that unidentified traders bet millions on the U.S. Stock Market rebounding in the moments before Trump's announcement of a tariff pause. This triggered a huge rally in April last year. Trump's Truth Social post pausing the tariffs was posted at 1:18 pm. ET on April 9 triggered a 9.5% increase for the S&P 500. Data from the market shows that certain options contracts saw a surge in trading activity before it. Around 1 p.m., 5,105 call options for SPY were traded. The average price of the SPY call options was $4.20. These calls rose as high as 42 dollars, turning 2,14 million dollars into approximately $21.44 millions on paper. Other SPY calls that bet on the ETF going above $509 were traded around 1:10 pm. ET; their value increased from $624,000 to $10 million at the end of the day. The trader could not tell if the calls had been?all bought or sold by a single trader, or whether several traders were involved and if they had closed their position with a profit. Kush Desai, White House spokesperson, said that government ethics guidelines prohibit federal employees from profiting from nonpublic information. In an email, he stated that any implication of Administration officials engaging in such activities without evidence was baseless and irresponsible.
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Fears of wider Iran conflict has led to a relaxation in the Gulf markets
Investors' sentiment was affected by the sagging of most Gulf stock markets in early Sunday trading, as concerns about a wider conflict linked to Iran weighed heavily on their minds. This came after Yemen’s Houthis launched the?first? attacks on Israel since the conflict started and the U.S. sent additional forces into the Middle East. The Washington Post reported Saturday that U.S. officials had said that the Pentagon was preparing for a possible multi-week?operation on the ground in Iran. However, it remained unclear whether President Donald Trump would authorize the deployment. The Qatari Index fell by 1.1% as Qatar National Bank, which is the Gulf's largest?lender based on assets?, declined by 1.3%. Kuwait's bourse slid by 0.4%, and Bahrain's market dropped by 0.1%. Saudi Arabia's benchmark indices bucked trend and gained 0.4%, thanks to a?0.4% increase for Al Rajhi Bank as well as a 0.6% gain for Saudi?Aramco. Bloomberg News reported that Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which circumvents?the Strait of?Hormuz?, pumps oil at its full capacity, 7 million barrels a day, according to a source familiar with the issue. Brent crude futures rose $4.56 or 4.2% to $112.57 per barrel on Friday. This reflects skepticism about prospects for a truce in the Iran War, which has been ongoing for over a month.
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Vedanta, India's largest company, will split into five companies in the next few months.
The Financial Times, citing an Anil Agarwal interview, reported that India's Vedanta would be split into five listed companies by the end of next month as part of a reorganization program that has been ongoing for years. In December, a tribunal approved the plan of the oil-to metals conglomerate to divide?into 5 listed entities. Vedanta will be operating as Vedanta Ltd, housing the?base metals division. Vedanta Aluminum, Talwandi Sabo Power, Vedanta Iron and Steel,?and Malco Energy are the other?four entities. Agarwal, a FT reporter, said that the combined market capitalisation of five companies would be higher than the current $27 billion conglomerate. Agarwal's private parent company will retain around?half the shares of each new entity, he said. The government, which first proposed the plan in 2023, was opposed to it, as they feared that a breakup would make it more difficult for them to recover debts. In an interview with in January, Chief Financial Officer Ajay Goel said that Vedanta plans to list the four demerged units on Indian exchanges before mid-May. Preetika parashuraman, Bengaluru. Christopher Cushing, editing.
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Bahrain's Alba confirms Iranian attacks on its facilities
Aluminium Bahrain (also known as Alba) confirmed early on Sunday that its facilities had been targeted by an Iranian attack just a day earlier, Bahrain’s state news agency reported. Alba said that two people were slightly injured during the attack and was assessing the damage to the facility. Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirmed the attack after they said that they targeted Alba, Emirates Global Aluminium and other companies in response to attacks on two Iranian Steel Plants. The IRGC stated, without elaborating on the matter, that both companies were linked to U.S. aeronautics and military firms. Could not independently verify IRGC claims. Alba initiated a?shutdown of three aluminium smelting?lines in March, which accounted for 19% of its?capacity to maintain business continuity amid the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The company declared force majeure on March 4, when it could not ship metals to its customers because of the closure. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has had a major impact on the Middle East aluminum sector. This sector accounts for around 9 % of global supply. Separately, Bahrain's Foulath Holding, parent company of Bahrain Steel declared a force majeure for its operations on Saturday due to the regional conflict, "associated security disruptions and?logistical interruptions". The company said that the current situation in the Middle East has created circumstances "outside of its?control" which have affected operations and 'logistics' across various parts of the group's business, without giving details about the magnitude of the impact. Reporting by Menna alaa el-din and Nayera abdallah Editing and Chizu nomiyama by Rod Nickel
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Emirates Global Aluminium reports "significant damage" from Iranian attacks
Emirates 'Global Aluminium'said on Sunday that its Al Taweelah manufacturing base in the UAE suffered "significant damage" from Iranian missile and drone strikes. The company released a statement saying that a number of EGA staff were injured during the attack on the Khalifa economic zone?in Abu Dhabi. It added that none of the injuries was life-threatening. EGA CEO Abdulnasser Bin Kalban stated in a statement that "the safety and security of EGA's people are our top priority at all times." "We are deeply saddened by the incident and are assessing damage to our facilities." Since the U.S. and Israel war against Iran, most aluminium producers from the Gulf region, who account for around 9 percent of global production, have not been able to ship metal via their usual channels to world markets due to the closure of the Strait?Hormuz. EGA's Al Taweelah aluminum smelter will produce 1.6 million metric tonnes of cast metal by 2025. The company has an adjacent refinery that produces 2.4 million metric tons of aluminium raw materials. EGA, which operates a smelter in Jebel Ali, in the emirate Dubai, claimed to have substantial metal stocks on the water and some overseas locations. Reports earlier in the month indicated that the company was rerouting aluminium exports to the Omani port Sohar and importing raw materials via this port. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Louise Heavens, and Tom Daly)
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Prime Minister says Egypt will slow down state projects in Egypt for two months due to the war with Iran
Egypt will'slow down' large state projects that require a high fuel and diesel usage for at least two months, while fuel allocations for government vehicles will be reduced by 30%. Madbouly said that the public sector, as well as the private sector, except for the services and manufacturing industries, would work remotely 'every Sunday in April. This measure can be extended by an additional day per week, or for several months if war continues. This is part of wider measures to deal with the economic fallout caused by the 'Iran War, which has pushed up energy prices and strained the public finances. Egypt, despite not being directly involved, has suffered a great deal, especially in its energy sector. It is heavily dependent on fuel imported from abroad. The disruption in oil and gas trade and production across the Middle East has led to a rise in costs. Fuel prices and public transport costs have already been raised by the government. Madbouly emphasized that these measures were temporary and that the government was 'working to help the citizens. Finance minister Ahmed Kouchouk stated that debt servicing costs, the mainstay of Egypt's budget which is usually consumed by the service of debt, will only rise 5% in the fiscal year beginning July. Ahmed Tolba in Cairo, Mohamed Ezz in Alexandria and Jaidaa T. Taha edited by Jan Harvey and Louise Heavens.
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Baghdad orders probe after drone targets Kurdistan president's home
Security?sources say that a 'drone attack' targeted the home of the President of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region?early Saturday morning. This?incidences comes at a time when tensions are rising in northern Iraq. Sources added that air defences shot down a drone in Duhok near a base of Peshmerga warriors. The strikes come amid an increase in attacks against both Iran-aligned forces and?Kurdish ones as the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran spills?over into Iraq, attracting multiple armed group and straining Baghdad’s efforts to contain?the fallout. His office reported that Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani spoke to him on the phone and condemned the attack on Kurdish President Nechirvan Barzani’s house. Sudani also ordered the formation of a joint federal and Kurdistan technical and security team to investigate and identify the perpetrators. Since the beginning of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, airstrikes have targeted sites that belong to Iraq's umbrella organization for Iran-backed Shi’ite militias. The Popular Mobilization Forces also target Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in 'Iraqi Kurdistan. Iraqi military claimed that the U.S., Israel and others carried out some of the airstrikes against the PMF. Tehran-backed armed group have also launched attacks on U.S. base?in Iraq as well as?the U.S. Embassy. Reporting by Jaidaa Taka, additional reporting by Muayad Saadi; Writing by Ahmed Tolba from Cairo; Editing and proofreading by Joe Bavier & Louise Heavens
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FinMin: Italian state finances are able to absorb shocks due to the Middle East Crisis
Italian state finances are able to absorb the negative impact of the Middle East crisis, said Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti on Saturday as the government prepared to update its budget targets and growth estimations for 2026 and subsequent years. Giorgetti stated that he still hoped for a downward adjustment of the deficit last year to 3% from 3.1% of national production by the national statistics office ISTAT. This would allow Italy to 'exit' early this year EU's excessive-deficit procedure. Giorgetti, speaking at a financial conference in Cernobbio (northern Italy), said: "We face this crisis from a position of relative strength, because our numbers are not exceptional but they are definitely positive." A source familiar with the matter stated that Prime Minister Giorgia meloni's Government expects Italy's Economy to Grow by 0.5%, 0.6% or even 0.7% this year and 0.7% by 2027 if policy remains unchanged. The two forecasts are both slightly below the 0.7% and 0.8% GDP growth targets that the government set in September. GOVERNMENT SEES SLOWER Growth Ahead These figures are still subject to change before they are published on April 10. They do not include any potential stimuli measures that the government might adopt to help households and businesses cope with rising energy prices. Giorgetti stated that despite the bleak economic outlook, the state finances were in a good position to absorb any shock from the Iran War. Italy did not achieve its goal of bringing the deficit under the 3% key ceiling for the European Union as originally planned, but ISTAT stated that if additional information becomes available, ISTAT could revise these figures by April 21. In September, the Treasury set a goal of 2.8% for this year's ratio of deficit to GDP. Giorgetti called for an EU-wide coordinated approach to adopt measures to deal with the current crisis and stated that Italy is not experiencing any shortages of energy at this time. The government has set aside 417.4 millions euros ($480.34) to cut excise duty on fuels until April 7. However, prices have not changed much and industry lobbyists are calling for more effective measures. Giorgetti stated that "we will listen to the different groups to identify the most urgent issues".
Finland reports suspected drone territorial violations
The?defence minister of Finland reported Sunday that there was a'suspected territorial breach by unmanned aerial vehicle in the southeast?of the country.
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are nearby, said earlier this week that several Ukrainian drones crashed on their territories after they went astray while attacking Russian oil exportation facilities?on the Baltic Sea Coast.
Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, export routes and other military targets in recent weeks to try and weaken Russia's war-economy and because peace talks, mediated by Washington, are stalling.
The origin of the drones that were detected in Finland was not immediately known.
"Drones strayed onto Finnish territory." "We are treating this matter very seriously," wrote Defence Minister Antti hakkanen in a post on social media, adding that an investigation is ongoing.
In a statement, the Ministry of Defence said that on Sunday morning several small objects were seen flying low in altitude over an area near a sea and in southeastern Finland.
It said that one drone landed on the ground north of Kouvola. Another fell east of Kouvola.
It was reported that the Finnish Air Force carried out a?identification flight with a?F/A-18 Hornet jet fighter. Anne Kauranen reported from Helsinki, and Terje Solsvik from Oslo. Mark Potter edited the article.
(source: Reuters)