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US CPC expects ENSO neutral weather conditions in June and August.

The United States Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday that El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions will be likely in summer 2025 in the Northern Hemisphere, with an 82% chance of occurring in June-August.

ENSO neutral conditions could continue into winter 2025-2026. However, confidence is lower. There's a 48% chance for neutral, and a 41% chance for La Nina.

Why it's important

La Nina is a part of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, a climatic cycle that affects the water temperatures in central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which increases the risk of droughts and floods. This can have an impact on crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to better weather and possibly higher crop yields.

CONTEXT

The Japanese weather bureau stated on Tuesday that there is a 60% probability of normal weather conditions continuing into autumn.

The National Weather Service of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast above-normal activity for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the 2025 season.

KEY QUOTES "While ENSO neutrality will have some benefits, the crops will not produce as much as they would under a La Nina setup," Tyler Roys, Senior Forecaster, Lead European at AccuWeather.

While the United States has seen a good amount of rainfall in spring, any dry spells that occur in conjunction with high temperatures in July and August could ruin what would otherwise be a great crop year. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)