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Silver reaches 13-year-high; gold poised to gain weekly
The price of gold rose on Friday and it was expected to rise for the week after U.S. interest rate cuts were anticipated by the Federal Reserve. Silver also hit a record high. As of 0854 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.4% to $3,367.45 per ounce. Bullion is up 2.4% this week. U.S. Gold Futures rose 0.5% to $3.390.70. Alexander Zumpfe is a precious metals dealer at Heraeus Metals Germany. He said that the disappointing data on jobless claims, which indicates a possible labor market weakness has had a greater impact on gold than President Trump's phone call with President Xi. U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping made a rare phone call on Thursday amid tensions over trade and a dispute about critical minerals. The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of Americans who filed new claims for unemployment benefits reached a seven-month record high. The markets are now awaiting the release of the non-farm payroll report in the U.S., which is due at 1230 GMT. This follows a number of data releases that indicated a softening labor market this week. The economists polled predicted that nonfarm payrolls would increase by 130,000 jobs by May, and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%. Zumpfe said that a softening US labour market would increase pressure on Fed to ease its monetary policy. This is especially true if payrolls are disappointing. In a low rate environment, gold, which is traditionally viewed as a safe haven during times of political and economic unrest, thrives. Silver spot rose 0.2%, to $36.23 an ounce. It had previously reached a record high of more than 13 years. Platinum rose by 2.7% to reach $1,163.95, the highest since March 2022. Palladium rose 1.4% to $1,019.62. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He said that gold has been struggling to rise in value over the short-term, which has led investors towards undervalued platinum and silver. (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru, Additonal)
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Tesla shares gain ground in premarket, as stocks watch for US employment data
The global stock markets were subdued Friday as investors prepared for the release of key U.S. employment data. Tesla shares recovered some ground during pre-market trading following a public spat between President Donald Trump, and billionaire Elon Musk. The markets are wary after a string of weak economic data, including a deterioration in the U.S. payrolls figure. This would increase concerns about stagflation while increasing pressure on Federal Reserve policy. Investors also pondered whether a telephone call between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, made on Thursday, and the prospect of future talks could help ease the deep tensions in trade between the two world's largest economies. Jason da Silva is the global investment strategy director of Arbuthnot-Latham. He said that any breakthrough would likely be the most important thing for markets. Tesla shares jumped nearly 5% during pre-market trading, and its Frankfurt listed stock gained 4% following a Politico report that White House aides had scheduled a phone call between Elon Musk CEO and Trump. Tesla shares fell 14% overnight, wiping out $150 billion of market value. Trump had threatened to stop government contracts for Musk's businesses as their once-close relationship turned into an open bitter disagreement. European stocks opened flat, following a similar muted Asian trading. Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose by 0.4%. The euro was trading near its six-week-highs against the dollar after the European Central Bank, as expected, cut interest rates on Thursday, but hinted that it would pause the year-long cycle of easing. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.14245 on Friday, slightly weighed down by weak German export figures, but was still on track for a weekly gain of 0.7%. The money markets are now pricing in a 19% chance that a cut will occur in July, compared to almost 30% before Christine Lagarde's press conference. Martins Kazaks, a policymaker at the ECB, said that it was time to stop cutting rates every meeting and keep its powder dry in light of an uncertain economy. The dollar rose 0.2% against major peers, just a little above its six-week low. Payrolls report expectations have been dampened by weaker-than-expected U.S. Labour Market data. This includes a 47% jump in layoffs recorded by Challenger, and a major surprise on the downside in ADP’s private payrolls. Forecasts predict a gain of 130,000 new jobs in May with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. A sudden weakness in the U.S. economy could trigger a rate cut and cause a massive rally in Treasuries. Futures prices indicate that there is little chance of a rate reduction until September. This is approximately 76% priced in. On the commodities market, oil prices are slightly lower than last week but they will likely rise this coming week due to supply concerns. U.S. Crude Futures fell 0.5% to $63.05 per barrel. Gold prices rose 0.3% to $3363 per ounce.
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London copper to gain weekly on the back of easing trade tensions and supply concerns
London copper rose on Friday, and is on course to finish the week higher. This was boosted by expectations of a easing of U.S. China trade tensions as well as concerns over supply disruptions. As of 0706 GMT, the three-month contract for copper on LME rose 0.1% to $9.746 per metric tonne. The price is up 2.7% this week and will be the biggest weekly gain since April. The market reached its highest level since March 31, at $9,809.50. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract gained 1%, to 78.930 yuan per ton ($10.996), and is up 0.5% for the week. Donald Trump, the U.S. president and Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader held a rare call between them on Thursday. They left the key issues for further discussions, but they invited each other to their respective countries. According to ANZ, "Market sentiment has been boosted by easing of trade tensions. Trump and Xi have agreed to further trade talks after Trump claimed that they had resolved disputes over rare earth exports in a phone call." LME copper stock fell to 138,000 tonnes, the lowest level in almost a year. They are down nearly half this year. . Teck Resources, a copper miner, reported this week production setbacks in two Chilean operations. The Kakula copper project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, ANZ stated, was also affected by seismic activity resulting in flooding of the underground part of the project. LME aluminium fell 0.5%, to $2,466.5 per ton, and LME lead rose 0.6%, to $1,990. SHFE Tin remained the best performer Friday, with a 1.8% increase to 263,600 Yuan. Two analysts in China said that the gains in tin are due to market speculation about disruptions of tin concentrats shipments from Myanmar via Thailand to China. Other SHFE metals saw a 0.1% increase in aluminium to 20,070 Yuan per ton. Lead gained 0.4% at 16,780 Yuan and nickel increased 0.4% to 122,220 Yuan. The copper inventories of SHFE registered warehouses increased by 1.5% in the last week. $1 = 7.1842 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Edwinn Gibbs and Janane Venkatraman)
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Governor of Engels says that a drone attack caused a fire at an industrial site in Russia.
The regional governor reported that drones caused a fire at an industrial facility in the southern Russian city of Engels. A video posted on social media, and confirmed by, showed a fierce fire emitting massive clouds of black smoke. The Governor Roman Busargin didn't specify which industrial site was the target. In January, the state of emergency in Engels was declared after a Ukrainian drone struck an oil depot serving a nearby Russian base for nuclear bomber aircraft, causing an fire that took several days to extinguish. Busargin confirmed that a high-rise building was also struck, but no one was injured. The Ukrainian general staff stated that it had struck Russian airfields and fuel reservoirs in the Saratov region, as well as in the Ryazan region, during an attack overnight on Friday. Saratov includes Engels. Since the middle of March the United States negotiated a one-month pause on attacks against energy facilities. A drone strike on March 14 caused an oil refinery in Russia, Black Sea Tuapse, to catch fire. The fire was extinguished after three days.
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European shares hold steady ahead of US key jobs data
Investors stayed away from major bets on Friday ahead of the crucial U.S. employment data. Trade tensions also added to the uncertainty. As of 0809 GMT the pan-European STOXX 600 remained at 551.95 and was on course for a second weekly gain if momentum continues. The day will begin with a monthly reading of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. This will help investors gauge how President Donald Trump’s trade policies have affected the labor market, and how the Federal Reserve may navigate the uncertain trade environment. Commerzbank analysts stated that "a print above the consensus could reinforce Fed's cautious position and serve as a bullish impetus" Double up Tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, imposed earlier this week by the United States, heightened trade tensions. Investors remained hopeful about signs of a possible easing of U.S. - China tariff tensions after Trump's phone call On Thursday, President Xi Jinping of China met with the United States. On Thursday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also said that Germany and America aim to strengthen Trade ties without providing any details Investors have lowered their expectations of further interest rate cuts due to President Christine Lagarde’s indications that the central banks is nearing the end its easing cycle. Investors will focus on whether the public spat between Trump and Tesla's top boss Elon Mohs could have wider implications for markets. Fiona Cincotta is the senior analyst at City Index. She said that the comments made by Musk yesterday regarding Trump tariffs and the U.S. going into recession in the second part of this year, combined with the weak data released this week, has caused investors to stay away for the moment. On the market, healthcare and energy share dominated and offset declines in industrial products and services and miners. Adidas and Puma, two sportswear retailers, fell 0.6% and 1,4% respectively after U.S. competitor Lululemon Athletica reduced its profit forecast for the year. Dassault Systemes shares fell by 1.5% after it extended its target period for medium-term earnings forecasts per share by an additional year. Renk fell about 5% and was among the worst performers in the STOXX 600 after Exane BNP Paribas lowered the stock from "neutral" to "underperform". Data is a big deal. German exports The U.S. demand for goods has decreased after months of high purchases made in anticipation of U.S. Tariffs. In May, British house prices The drop was larger than expected.
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Document shows that Indonesia's Pertamina is looking for more gasoline in the term range from July to September.
Pertamina, Indonesia, is looking to purchase up to 1.2million barrels of gasoline term cargoes per month for delivery between July to September. This was its second tender this month. Pertamina wants to purchase up to 500,000 barrels octane 92 gasoline per month and up to 700,00 barrels octane 90 gasoline, according to the document. However, restrictions remain on the origins of the deliveries. The company's trading arm Pertamina Patra Niaga issued this tender. It closes on 10 June, with validity until 16 June. Multiple trade sources confirmed that the firm had purchased some cargoes on a discounted basis linked to a Singapore free-on-board basis through an earlier tender held in May. The oil company had sought to purchase up to 1.6 millions barrels octane 90 gasoline and 1.2million barrels octane 92 gasoline, for delivery every month between July and December. No further details about the volume awarded in the previous bid could be confirmed. However, trade sources stated that the company bought both grades of gas. Pertamina Niaga did no respond immediately to a comment request. Reporting by Mohi N. Narayan, New Delhi; Trixie Yap, Singapore; Bernadette C. Christina added reporting; Eileen Soreng edited.
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India auto dealers cautious about June sales due to rare earth restrictions and high inventory
Indian auto dealers expect a cautious demand in June, as the industry is impacted by high inventory levels and tighter financing. The Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations of India stated that while an above-normal rainy season is expected to boost sales of tractor and two-wheelers in semi-urban areas and rural areas, a shortage of rare earths, which are critical for EV production, could dampen demand. Around 55% of members of the trade body expect flat sales in June. Automakers and dealers are counting on the new EV launch to help them grow this year, and offset the slowdown in sales of combustion engines cars in urban areas. "... "Global supply-chain headwinds - from rare-earth shortages in EV components, to ongoing geopolitical conflicts - may keep urban consumer sentiment under control," FADA said. While EV sales in India are growing faster than gasoline cars, they only accounted for 2.5% of 4.3 million vehicles sold during the last fiscal year. The suspension of China's exports of rare earths, magnets, and other related materials has disrupted supply chains vital to automakers and aerospace manufacturers. Semiconductor companies, military contractors, and automotive manufacturers have also been affected. Export restrictions have caused global automakers to warn of production halts. Although Indian automakers have not yet publicly disclosed the impact of curbs, a private industry group told the government privately last month that it expected production to "come to a grinding stop" as soon as the end or early June. Bajaj Auto, India's largest e-scooter manufacturer, said last week that any delays in lifting export restrictions would affect the production of electric scooters starting July. TVS Motor has also warned that an impact is expected by June or July. FADA said that dealers continue to face a high inventory of automobiles and commercial vehicles. In May, inventories of cars were 52-53 days above the FADA recommended level. (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema and Niveditarjee in Bengaluru, Niveditarjee in New Delhi and Saumyadeb Chkrabarty).
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Iron ore gains for the week on Trump-Xi discussions and resilient China demand
The price of iron ore futures rose to an all-time high on Friday, and was set for a weekly gain, buoyed up by the progress made in Sino-U.S. negotiations and the steady demand from China, its largest consumer. However, seasonally low steel consumption limited gains. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trading 0.86% higher, at 707.5 Yuan ($98.48), logging a week-long gain of 0.6%. Earlier in the session, the contract reached its highest level since 26 May at 713.5 Yuan per ton. As of 0716 GMT on Friday, the benchmark July iron ore traded at the Singapore Exchange had risen 0.9% to $95.7 per ton. This is a 0.1% increase this week. In the early part of the session, it reached its highest level since May 29, at $96.4. The market was optimistic after U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping addressed weeks of brewing tensions over trade and a fight over vital minerals during a rare leader to leader call on Thursday. Analysts at Everbright Futures wrote in a report that the call between Sino-U.S. leader is a sign that trade tensions are easing between the two superpowers. This has sparked a risk-on mood. Analysts at Chaos Ternary Futures say that near-term ore consumption is expected to remain firm, as steelmakers will need to stockpile cargo in order to maintain production. Hot metal output has been relatively high, and the mills' inventory remains low. A survey by consultancy Mysteel revealed that the average daily hot metal production, which is a measure of iron ore consumption, was 2.42 million tonnes as of 5 June, up 2.6% compared to a year ago. As summer temperatures increased, construction was hampered. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking ingredients have increased by 3.18% and 0.67 percent, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a majority of steel benchmarks rise. Rebar was up 0.57%, while hot-rolled coils and wire rod were also higher. Stainless steel fell 0.16%.
JP Morgan lowers oil price forecasts due to weak demand and higher output
JP Morgan lowered Monday its oil price predictions for 2025 as well as next year. They cited higher production by OPEC+, and weaker demand.
The bank lowered its forecast for 2025 Brent prices to $62 per barrel, down from $73, and its target price for 2026 to $58 per barrel, up from $61. The bank lowered its 2025 WTI forecast to $62 from $69 per barrel and its 2026 outlook to $53 from $71.
Brent crude futures traded around $65 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures around $61.
JP Morgan expects the global oil demand to rise by 0.8 millions barrels per daily (mbd), but only a growth of 0.3 mbd on average in the third quarter.
The bank stated in a report that "higher production volumes by the OPEC+ Alliance indicate a change in reaction function. This, combined with weaker demands, will push the balances to a large excess and drive Brent below $60 at the end of the year."
Analysts at JP Morgan said that the oil market is still under pressure due to an "80% chance of a mild economic recession, coupled with an increase of 1 mbd in production" by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
JP Morgan stated that while OPEC+ will gain market share by 2025, to stabilize the market at $60 Brent for 2026, the alliance would need to not only reverse the current production increases but also implement further reductions.
This month has been a busy one for us.
Goldman Sachs has reduced its
Brent and WTI Oil Forecasts for 2025-2026 will be based on an expectation of increased OPEC+ oil supply, and the possibility of escalating trade conflicts. This will cause a global recession and dent demand.
(source: Reuters)