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The US claims that more oil is escaping the Middle East. But is this true? Russell
How much crude oil leaves the Strait of Hormuz each day? The U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright claims that almost nine million barrels of crude oil are exported every day. However, companies tracking vessel movements claim it's only about half. Wright said on social?media platform X that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military?and?our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd." This oil goes into Asia, which has been the hardest hit since the U.S. Wright stated on the social?media platform X that the U.S. Military?and our gulf ally's coordinated efforts have resulted in the seven-day oil average leaving the Strait of Hormuz reaching almost 9 million bpd. Wright said on social media platform X that "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military?and?our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million bpd." If Wright's figures are correct, the oil market may not be as tight as many analysts think. Wright's figures don't match those of several tracking services. Wright did not specify the exact time frame for his seven-day mean, but data from Kpler's commodity analysts shows that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were 2.77 million bpd for the week starting July 27. The week starting August 3 will see a drop to just 1.74 million bpd. Even the best week of the conflict, the week that began June 29, saw only 6.98 millions bpd. What is the total amount of exports to and from the Middle East region? This includes cargoes departing from the Red Sea port of Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, as well as those from Oman and shipments from the Fujairah facility located in the United Arab Emirates. Kpler data indicates crude shipments were 9.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in the week starting August 3 and an average of 12.26 millions bpd over a period of four weeks. LSEG Oil Research data, filtered so that only cargoes being loaded or already loaded are shown, as well as those in progress, show Middle East crude exports at 9.33 million bpd during the first 12 days of august, down from 12.35 millions bpd recorded for July. The tracking data indicates that the Middle East's total exports are still below the pre-conflict level, with Kpler showing shipments of 18.7 million bpd for the three months up to the end February. It would be logical, if Wright's figures are correct, for import data from the Middle East to show an increase. Kpler showed a surge in Middle East crude imports in July. Of the 13.27 million barrels per day (bpd) that arrived, 10.86 million were discharged in Asian ports. The imports of crude oil from the Middle East were up from 9.26 million barrels per day in April. This was the lowest Kpler data since 2013. However, the number for July was still far below the average of 18.71 million barrels per day in the three months prior to the Iran War. This was partly due to the fact that a lot of tankers were able to leave the Strait of Hormuz after the ceasefire was declared between Iran and the United States in mid-June. MIND THE GAP The vessel tracking data shows a difference between what they see and what Wright claims is being shipped out of the Middle East. Three main explanations are possible for the?gap. 1. Wright's department provided the correct numbers, but tracking services miss some clandestine shipments which are done out of sight. 2. Wright and his department "genuinely believe" their numbers but are wrongly counting shipments. 3. Wright is aware that his numbers are incorrect, but he continues to disseminate the information because it fits the narrative of U.S. president Donald Trump who wants to portray the war as going well. Wright could resolve the first possibility by sharing his knowledge of what he knows, such as vessel names, cargo details, and the loading and discharge ports. The tracking service could then compare the data to determine where discrepancies lie. The second possibility, which is the most likely one, involves the U.S. Navy doubling-counting exports that are transferred from ship to ship. Wright's third option is the most disturbing. And doubts will continue to persist as long as he doesn't present evidence. You can also 'wait a few more weeks' to see what the import numbers are from various countries who buy crude oil from the Middle East. The arrival numbers will reflect this if 15 million barrels per day are truly leaving the region. This is because tankers take time to travel from one destination to another. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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As global shortages worsen, diesel prices in Europe surpass jet fuel
LSEG data shows that diesel cargoes cost more in Europe than jet fuel for the first time since a year. The continent is replacing lower Middle East airfuel shipments with alternative sources of supply but struggles to obtain more diesel for agriculture and industry. After the Iran War, when crude and fuel supplies were disrupted by the war in Iran, Europe was able to import jet cargoes. The global diesel supply was further tightened when Russia banned its exports in response to Ukrainian attacks on their refineries. Goldman Sachs analysts said that they saw a greater risk of diesel prices remaining high than crude as we head into winter. JET FUEL IS RISING AS THE DIESEL SUPPLY WILTS According to Kpler, Europe increased its imports of jet-fuel to 750,000 barrels a day in June – the highest rate since October 2025 – and to a similar level in July from 612,000 BPD in January. In contrast, European Diesel imports fell to 1.56 million bpd from 1.97 million in January. LSEG data revealed that diesel prices surpassed jet fuel in this week's market. Diesel prices are only 14% lower than their April highs due to the impasse in Iran's peace talks, as well as Russian export disruptions. Jet fuel prices have also increased in recent weeks but are still 25% below their records from March. Karim Fawaz of S&P Global Energy said that "a brief period of cautious optimistic for refined products markets was quickly overtaken" by renewed hostilities along the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of Russian supply. Analyst: WEAKENING JET Demand Will Likely Impact Prices. As a further indication of the relative weakness of Jet, its price has fallen against the futures of gasoil - the benchmark by which it is valued in Europe. Price assessment for a jet cargo arriving in Europe According to LSEG, gasoil futures were trading at a discount of $24 per metric ton on August 10. According to LSEG and Argus media, this is the largest discount since July 2025. LSEG & Argus rated the jet premium in March at over $500 per barrel. Prices are likely to be affected by a waning demand for jets after the seasonal peak in summer travel and an expectation of increased European imports, according to Jay Maroo at Sparta Commodities.
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As investors profit from the rally, gold prices drop.
Gold prices fell on Thursday, after reaching a two-month high. Investors took profits as a result of the U.S. inflation figures that have sharply reduced expectations about a Federal Reserve rate increase next month. Gold spot fell by 0.3% at $4,395.04 an ounce as of 1116 GMT. It had risen earlier in the day, about 1%, to its highest level since June 5. U.S. Gold Futures?for December Delivery fell 0.3% per ounce to $4,452.70. Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that gold has reversed recent gains, falling below a key chart?support of $4,387. Profit-taking had set in following a stellar run. Norman stated that the market had "over-positioned" itself in anticipation of the soft inflation data. "Having bought the rumour it now sells the fact," Norman added. In the 12-month period ending in July, the U.S. Consumer Price Index?rose by 3.4%. This is down from 3.5% and in line with expectations. This was the second consecutive month that annual inflation slowed. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the markets now price a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, down from 55% about a week ago. The Producer Price Index is due on Thursday and will provide further information on the Fed's outlook on policy. Gold, which doesn't pay interest, is supported by lower interest rates, as they reduce the opportunity costs of holding gold bullion. OBCB Group research said that further gains in precious metals will depend on whether the Fed's repricing remains intact and if ETF accumulation continues. Norman says that gold, despite its setbacks, is eager to resume its bull market, but for the moment, the geopolitics favours the dollar as the safest haven. A SEC filing revealed that Bank of Korea owned a $250-million stake in a US-listed Gold ETF at the end of June. Spot silver, on the other hand, fell by 0.5% in price to $64.99. This is after it had risen to its highest level since June 22 during the previous session. Palladium fell 2.1% and platinum 1.4%, respectively, to $1.341.24 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala, Shailesh Kuber and Dharna Baffna in Bengaluru)
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The Danube's record low levels expose nuclear power plants in Hungary and Romania to climate risks
The record?low river levels in Hungary have forced the country to struggle to keep running its nuclear power plants, while Romania had to shut down?its last reactor. This has raised questions about how atomic energy can be adapted to an ever-more extreme climate. The reliance on river water to cool nuclear reactors is a long-standing issue and has led to a reduction in power production?in summer months. This has been especially true for France, whose nuclear power dependence is greater than any other country. The extreme heat and drought in Europe this year, where the continent has been experiencing more warming, have heightened the urgency of a discussion about adaptation. Hungary's 2-gigawatt Paks Nuclear Plant was forced to reduce its output by just 10% in the beginning of this month. This is the first time since 1944 that a complete shutdown has been avoided. Now, it is operating at only 25% of its maximum capacity. Nuclearelectrica, a Romanian state-owned company, shut down its final working reactor Thursday after it was not able to divert enough cooling water into the plant. A PART OF THE SOLUTION, BUT ALSO PROBLEM The advantage of nuclear power plants is that they generate baseload electricity without carbon emissions. This means that they can play a part in preventing fossil fuel combustion and tackling climate changes. Both Romania and Hungary have committed to increasing their nuclear power production to provide ample domestic energy. But to do so, they need to find a cooling system that is less dependent on the level of river water. Diana Urge Vorsatz, a professor of Central European University, Vienna, stated that scientific modeling showed that Central Eastern Europe was on the rise. She said that soil drying is due not only to the lack of rain, but also because groundwater levels and soil moisture have decreased over the years. Water engineers warned at a conference of the Hungarian Hydrological Society last year that "flow patterns could become more extreme and volatil" on the Danube, Europe's longest river. Governments are now under pressure to find solutions as emergency output reductions at Hungary and Romania's nuclei plants have forced them into asking companies and households to reduce?energy consumption. Peter Magyar, the Hungarian prime minister, said that his government was planning to build a "riverbed sill" - an underwater dam-like structure to raise water levels. Two barges may also be sunk to raise water levels on Friday in an effort to avoid a river shutdown. The country is also reviewing designs for the planned Paks 2 expansion, which relies on the Danube as a cooling source. In 2014, the former Viktor Orban government selected Rosatom of Russia for the project without an open tender. Different technology but still water required Nuclearelectrica, a Romanian company, operates two reactors with a combined capacity of 706 megawatts. These reactors account for about a fifth (50%) of Romania's electricity production. The reactors use CANDU, a Canadian technology which relies on heavy-water, where the hydrogen in the water is replaced with a heavier element to slow down neutrons. Russian pressurised-water reactors are used in the four reactors at Hungary's Paks Plant, which produce around half of Hungary’s electricity. Both technologies use water from the Danube to cool the air and then return the water into the river. In contrast, Czechoslovak nuclear plants use wet-cooling towers that require?less water. The steam emitted in the process is then emitted into the atmosphere. Scientists have proposed a hybrid cooling system that combines river cooling and tower cooling. Attila Azzodi is a professor and nuclear expert from the Budapest University of Technology and Economics. He said that retrofitting a cooling system to the original Paks Reactors would not be cost-effective. Aszodi said: "I do not think it is cost-effective to install a large cooling system for the next twenty years, i.e., the remaining life of the Paks 1 plant." "A new assessment of the cooling methods on site is absolutely necessary." ROMANIA PLANS AN INTERVENTION ON THE DANUBE The only nuclear power plant in Romania is located on the Old Danube branch of the river, which intersects Bala. The government has approved a project in 2024 worth 1,02 billion lei (225 million dollars) to raise the riverbed of the Bala Branch to regulate the water flow. The solution proposed?includes moving upstream the intersection of branches, and raising the riverbed sill along the deeper Bala arm. The government has not provided any information about when the project could be completed. Nuclearelectrica responded that studies had shown the Bala project to be a way of ensuring four reactors can operate at their full capacity, when asked about the effect low Danube levels would have on plans to build two additional reactors. Eugenia Gushilov, director at the Romania Energy Center, said it is feasible and that alternative cooling methods can be considered before work begins. She said that "Building Units 3, 4 and 5 still makes sense, if necessary hydrotechnical work is done."
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Brief relief MORNING BID AMERICAS
What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan, Editor at Large, Finance and Markets The July consumer inflation report was not spectacular, but it did offer some relief to the markets who were worried about a surprise on the upside. The annual headline and core rates were lower than expected. However, the core price increase for July was higher than forecast. Below, I will get to that and more. Check out my latest article, which explores AI's impact on inflation and employment so far. Listen to the most recent episode of Morning Bid, the daily podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. BRIEF RELIEF The interest rate markets breathed a sigh of relief after the CPI report, reducing the odds of a Federal Reserve hike next month to just under 50%. The government also felt some relief with short-term Treasuries, but that didn't stop it from selling 10-year bonds at the highest yields in nearly 20 years yesterday. The yield curve between two and?30 years has risen slightly. A game changer? Hardly. The Fed will be releasing the next installment of its overall inflation report today. This includes the Producer Price Report, which contains important components of their preferred PCE measure, like airfares. Both headline and core PCE inflation is expected to remain above 3% for July. The rebound in oil prices from?July to now could also aggravate the inflation readings for August, and the Fed's September meeting will be informed by the CPI report of that month. Brent crude was hovering just under $90 a barrel Thursday, despite the Gulf impasse. This is a slight drop from previous week's highs. Japan's wholesale price inflation was also a sour note, with rates above 7% for the year in July despite big increases in energy prices. The Bank of Japan is still unsure how these data will affect its decision-making. However, monthly rates were lower than expected. Other than that, the world's markets are in a lull, with little change to major stock indexes and Wall Street nearing records after Wednesday's surges of AI-related firms CoreWeave, and Super Micro. Chart of the Day The British economy grew at a rapid 0.4% rate in the second quarter 2026, thanks to a surprise jump in GDP in June as World Cup spending increased. It was a little cooler than in the first quarter but the UK economy has an annualized rate of growth of?2.0%. This was the second consecutive quarter that the UK economy was the fastest growing G7 economy. The second half of the calendar year is usually slower. However, the first half challenges the narrative that the UK economy is struggling. This will be a positive for the new prime minister Andy Burnham's first budget plan, which he will present in October. Watch today's events * U.S. PPI for July (8:30 am EDT), Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am EDT). * U.S. 30 year bond auction (1 pm EDT) *?Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed Thomas Barkin? speak Want the Morning Bid delivered to your inbox each weekday morning? Subscribe to the newsletter by clicking here. Follow us on LinkedIn, X and ROI. The opinions expressed by the author are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to independence, integrity and neutrality under the Trust Principles. (By Mike Dolan, Editing by Hugh Lawson).
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India's trade deficit in goods reaches 6-month high due to the Mideast conflict.
India's trade deficit in goods grew more than expected, reaching a six-month high of $31,98 billion during July. The Middle East conflict pushed up India's oil imports and global freight costs. Data shows that India's external imbalance is under increasing pressure as the wider trade deficit weighs on its rupee and inflows of capital. According to a poll the merchandise trade deficit for July was higher than expected at $30.20 billion. This is compared to a previous month's deficit of $30.43. Exporters and industry data show that freight rates from South 'Asia have increased sharply over the past few weeks. Rates to the Middle East are also high - due to regional disruptions, high fuel prices and limited vessel capacity. Goods exports reached a record of $44.24 billion for July, exceeding the previous peak of $38.34 in 2022. In June, it was $40.41. Data showed that imports increased to $76.22 bn, up from $70.84 bn in June. This was due to a rise of crude oil prices. Rajesh Agrawal told reporters that exports of electronics, engineering and petroleum products have seen a strong increase so far in this fiscal year. Shipments to the Middle East also increased 8.6% on an annual basis to $5.7 billion last July. According to a senior Iranian official, Iran and the United States are still at odds over the issue of ending the "war". The source said that there has been no progress made in the talks to revive the June interim agreement and to define a time frame for its implementation. Estimates from the trade ministry showed that India's service exports for July were strong at $35.89 Billion, and services imports came in at $18.94 Billion, with a?surplus of $16.95 Billion. India's trade minister Piyush Goyal stated on Wednesday that exports increased by about 15% between April and July, expressing confidence that the country will reach its $1 trillion goods-and-services export target for the fiscal year ending in March. Data showed that the U.S. was India's top export destination, with goods shipments reaching $33,49 billion between April and July, almost matching last year's level. A trade official stated that about 45% of India's exports remain exempt from the new 10% tariff introduced by Washington last July. India is actively working with U.S. officials to resolve any outstanding issues and hopes to conclude a bilateral agreement as soon as possible.
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Copper falls on dollar firmness and concerns about global economy
The price of copper and other industrial metals fell on Thursday. This was due to a stronger dollar, and concerns about the global economy as 'the Middle East conflict continues. Benchmark 'three-month' copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.7% to $14,028 per metric tonne at 0920 GMT. It had fallen by 0.2% the previous session. LME copper rose to a six month high last week on tighter inventories outside of the United States. It's obvious that the market is tight. Nitesh Shah is a commodity strategist with WisdomTree. He said that there are a lot more questions about the global economic situation and the dollar, which has a negative impact on prices. As long as there is a war in the Middle East, the risk that the economy will be hampered and the demand may not be as strong initially expected. According to a senior Iranian official, Iran and the U.S. remain at odds over the efforts to reach a permanent "end to the conflict". The dollar index reached its highest level in almost two weeks Thursday, causing commodities priced in U.S. dollars to be more expensive for buyers who use other currencies. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell by 0.7%, to 107.410 yuan per ton. This was due to signs of a waning demand in the world’s largest metals-consuming nation. Yangshan Copper Premium The price of a ton, which is a barometer to measure China's demand for imports, has fallen to $95 per ton, its lowest level in the last four weeks. LME aluminium fell 1.2% to $3.271 per?ton. This is the second consecutive decline after a seven session rally. The Middle East is a major supplier of aluminium globally, and it's improving supply prospects, as well as the anticipated?returning of some war-damaged capacity, helped ease supply concerns. David Wilson, BNP Paribas' head of commodity strategy, said that there is more uncertainty regarding a peace agreement, even though smelters from the Gulf are shipping materials out via Saudi Arabia and Oman. (Reporting by Eric Onstad Additional reporting by Solomon Cefai in Singapore; Editing and Leroy Leo) (Reporting and editing by Leroy Leo; Additional reporting by Solomon Cefai, Singapore)
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As investors profit from the rally, gold prices drop.
Gold reversed its course on Thursday, falling about 1% as 'investors booked their profits following softer than expected U.S. inflation data that slashed the expectations of Federal Reserve rate increases in the near future. Spot gold dropped 0.7% at $4,373.29 an ounce as of 0838 GMT. It had risen about 1% in the early Asia trade to its highest level since June?5. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery fell 0.8% per ounce to $4,430.20 Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said that "gold has reversed its recent increase, sliding below important chart supports at $4,387, as profit-taking sets in after a stellar run." Norman stated that the market had over-positioned itself in anticipation of the soft inflation data. "Having bought the rumour, the market is now selling it as fact," Norman said. Gold is eager to resume its bull run despite setbacks but this rally is currently on hold as geopolitics favours the dollar at the moment, he said. The Fed is unlikely to feel any new urgency to increase interest rates in the next month, after data released on Wednesday showed that inflation had cooled for a second consecutive month on an annual basis. In line with expectations, the consumer price index increased by 3.4% over the past 12 months, compared to 3.5% in June. The focus now shifts to the Producer Price Index due later that day for further evidence of?moderating prices and reduced prospects for U.S. interest rate hikes in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are only pricing in a 36% chance of a hike during the September meeting. This is down from the 55%?seen just a week ago. Gold is more attractive at lower rates because it does not yield interest. Spot silver, on the other hand, fell by 1.36% at $64.41 an ounce after reaching its highest level since June 22 during the previous session. Palladium dropped 2.16% and platinum fell 1.93%. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala; Swati verma and Dharna bafna in Bengaluru)
Firefighter entrapments in the US have reached a 20-year record high.
Federal data shows that U.S. firefighters are facing the most wildfires in 20 years, with six deaths and?dozens of injuries. This grim statistic comes during an unprecedented fire season for the United States.
According to the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center (a federal agency), there have been 12 entrapments in 2026. This is already'more than the average full-year number of nine over the past 20 years and the highest year-to date?number? since 2006. Wildfire entrapments can be life-threatening situations where fire behavior compromises escape routes or safety zones for firefighting personnel.
Firefighting personnel are at greater risk due to the sheer scale and number of wildfires that have occurred this year. Experts attribute these fires in part to climate changes caused by fossil fuel burning.
Seven retired and active firefighters expressed concern that firefighters took unusual risks due to the Trump administration's all-out effort to stop fires. They questioned also the impact of U.S. Forest Service cuts in staffing as part of federal downsizing.
Firefighter safety is the highest priority for the U.S. Forest Service. The agency, which is part of the Department of Agriculture, has traditionally taken the lead in fighting wildfires.
USFS didn't immediately respond to requests about the impact of aggressive firefighting tactics and staff cuts.
The newly formed U.S. Wildland Fire Service is reviewing entrapments in order to improve the safety of firefighter.
INTENSE FIRE SESSION
The U.S. West is experiencing a fire season that will be intense after a record-low winter snowpack and temperatures, as well as decades of drought.
According to the National Interagency?Center, 6.4 million acres (about 2.5 million hectares), or about five times as much land has burned in Europe so far this year. U.S. firefighters had to deal with 46,500 fires in the last decade, which is a record.
Wesley Page of the U.S. Forest Service, who has studied entrapments, explained that this means they are in danger for longer periods under drier and more extreme conditions.
According to data from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) and USFS, entrapment deaths account for four out of an average of 17 wildland firefighters who die each year in the US. Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center statistics show that six out of 13 firefighter deaths in 2026 have been entrapped.
In 2026, a quarter (25%) of entrapments were caused by helicopter-borne firefighters. These crews are often dropped close to fires in order to create firebreaks. After an entrapment on June 27, four helitack crews died and another was severely burnt in Colorado's Knowles Fire. This is the deadliest entrapment for 13 years.
The U.S. Wildland Fire Service issued a statement saying that the fact that Helitack crews may have been involved in three incidents does not mean Helitack operations are more dangerous.
In Washington and Oregon, bulldozer operators were entrapped by fires as they were scraping fire breaks.
Former and current firefighters expressed concern that fire personnel were taking greater risks than usual, after officials in the administration of President Donald Trump stressed the importance of putting out all fires immediately. This approach is known as "full suppression".
In an April letter, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins (who is responsible for the Forest Service) said that her priority was "to accelerate initial attacks and use a complete suppression strategy."
Riva Duncan, President of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters and advocate for firefighter groups, said this was not always appropriate given the conditions on the ground, which were "insanely volatile" with extreme drying and strong winds.
Duncan, a fire duty officer who was assigned to fires in the U.S. Southwest in this year, said, "We just can't" put people in front.
U.S. Wildland Fire Service director Brian Fennessy said on the Hotshot Wake Up Podcast earlier this month he was confused about 2025 policies that encourage firefighters to be aggressive in the initial attack of a wildfire. He added their?procedures are already aggressive.
He said that "aggressive" does not mean to take extra or extraordinary risks of harming people.
COLORADO DEATHS
Page, a U.S. Forest Service specialist who works in Colorado said that the agency's emphasis upon full suppression could have caused firefighters to act more aggressively on the Knowles Fire than they normally would.
Page, who was assigned to firefighting duty in the same area two days after the entrapment said that a blaze such as the Knowles Fire will die on its own once the wind drops due to the rough terrain and sparse vegetation of the area.
Scott Fitzwilliams is a former supervisor at Colorado's White River National Forest. He said that full suppression was a return of failed policies of the '20th century, which led to the accumulation of forest fuel, now driving the wildfire crisis in the United States.
He said that over 6,000 USFS jobs were cut in 2025 as part of federal downsizing, destroying the support system for the agency's 11300 firefighters. This also caused increased fatigue.
Fitzwilliams said that the pressure to extinguish all fires at once, even if they are small, puts firefighters in danger. He retired last year, and knew Emily Barker who was one of the Rifle Helitack team members who died in Knowles Fire, and who worked in his forest. Andrew Hay reported from New Mexico, and Donna Bryson edited the story.
(source: Reuters)