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Oil and stocks are both shaky ahead of the US jobs report
Investor optimism about robust earnings growth, and excitement over AI, helped to offset concerns about the conflict in the Middle East. MSCI's All-World Index has increased 2.4% in the last week, the most in the past three months. On Friday, it was stable, but shares of drugmakers and tech companies boosted Europe's STOXX600 by 0.6% for the day, and 2% over the course of the week. Investors are now focused on the U.S. Payrolls Report due later that day. This could be crucial for interest rate forecasts. Forecasts predict a gain of 80,000 jobs in July, following a gain of 57,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. TRADERS SPLIT OVER FED RATE INCREASE The money markets indicate that traders are divided over whether or not the Federal Reserve will increase rates next month. Friday's payrolls data could tip the balance one way or the other. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economics, said that yields and inflation are still the main risks for stocks. A strong NFP will reinforce higher prices and increase pressure on rates. Feroli added that equities could also respond positively to the softness of the non-farm payrolls data, as yields are expected to ease and expectations will shift toward a more dovish policy. Analysts said that given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s unwillingness to provide any guidance as to what to expect from monetary policy, the employment data may cause a greater impact than usual on the market. "An extremely poor or strong print can have a greater impact on prices than it did in the past, when the Fed's options were more clear. "Vacuums have to be filled and the market will always choose itself as a solution," Caxton strategist David Stritch stated. Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose by 0.6% on the U.S. stock market. Cloudflare shares rose 16% on Friday morning, after soaring 18% following Thursday's close. This was due to the cloud services provider?s positive forecast. OIL CLIMBS AGAIN The conflict in the Middle East erupted again after Yemeni Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, attacked Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a major oil-supplier. Riyadh warned that coordinated attacks between the Houthis, and Iran-backed Iraqi militas would be imminent. Brent crude futures reversed their course on Friday, falling 0.7% to $82 per barrel as investors ignored Saudi Arabia's warnings. Iran is meanwhile reviewing a preliminary bill which would prohibit U.S. and?Israeli vessels, as well as other "hostiles" from transiting Strait of Hormuz. This was reported by Iran's semiofficial Fars News Agency on Thursday. It cited a lawmaker. The draft bill could impose fines up to 20% of the value of a ship’s cargo for violating proposed restrictions. Treasury yields remained essentially unchanged as trading activity was subdued due to uncertainty surrounding the employment data. The 2-year note yield remained at 4.243% while the 10-year rate traded at 4.67%. The U.S. dollar remained steady at 158.3 yen to the US dollar. The U.S. employment report could determine the next moves in the yen, after last week's historic currency?intervention from Japan and the U.S. The dollar has been trading at six-week lows, while gold is rising. Gold has increased by almost 7% in the past week. This is its highest performance since mid-January when it reached a record of $5,594. Last seen at $4,322, it was up 2%. (Stella Qiu contributed additional reporting from Sydney; editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kate Mayberry in Sydney, Susan Fenton, Alex Richardson, and Kate Mayberry)
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Overcrowding in Sri Lanka jails causes riots that leave three dead and 23 injured
Wijepala: * Special forces and police quelled disturbances in two facilities As inmates were being moved from rooftops, heavy police and riot units were deployed. * * * * *?Government plans to change judicial tenure in order to reduce 1 million-case backlog By Uditha Jayasinghe COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO. COLOMBO 7th August. Three prisoners were killed in two prison riots and at least '23 other prisoners? were injured. Unrest continues in the overcrowded prisons of Sri Lanka. A riot began at the New Magazine Prison in Colombo late Thursday night. One prisoner died and 10 were injured. Ananda Wijepala, Minister of Public Security, told the parliament that a second riot took place at Kuruwita Prison, located about 80 kilometers (50 miles), resulting in two deaths and 14 injuries. Wijepala stated that the police and special forces had brought both disturbances to a halt. Police sources said that the unrest in a?open prison? located about 40km (25miles) away from Colombo was also contained when police used tear gas on protesting 'inmates. All three prisons had heavy police and riot squads deployed. Prisoners who had "climbed on rooftops" or moved to open areas, were then returned to their cells. The overcrowding crisis is widespread in the prison system of the country, where more than 41,000 prisoners are housed in 22 prisons designed to hold 11,000 people. Over three quarters of the inmates are on remand awaiting trial. Many have drug-related charges. We have now 'controlled the situation. Security is not a concern. Taken together, it seems that these incidents were planned and an attempt was made at sabotage. Wijepala told lawmakers that we could only comment further following a 'comprehensive investigation. In early July, ten prison officials and twenty prisoners were killed in two days' worth of fighting in a prison located in the coastal town of Negombo. This is about 35 km north of Colombo. A riot occurred last weekend in Mahara prison, which is located about 14 km north of Colombo. One inmate was killed and many others injured. Sri Lanka plans to amend its constitution in order to extend the tenure of superior court judges by two years. This is part of an effort to reduce prisoner numbers and clear up a backlog more than one million court cases. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens, Uditha Jayasinghe)
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ROI-Weekend Reads: Inflation heat, green steel, bond angst
Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads?reports on what the Open Interest team is reading, watching and listening to every Friday. This week, the picks focus on America's reliance upon Chinese goods, U.S.?overheating?, geothermal energy, green steel, and risks emanating from bond market. We're reading this 'weekend'... MIKE DOLAN. ROI Finance & Markets columnist. Mary Lovely and Christine Wan from Washington's Peterson Institute discuss how U.S. Policymakers have not made much progress in reducing America’s dependency on Chinese goods and services despite many years of effort. Direct trade declined sharply over the seven-year period from 2010 to 2024. However, direct and indirect trade, including goods with 'Chinese components', decreased by only 2 percentage points. This raises the question whether the new tariffs will also have a limited impact. CLYDE RUSSELL is a ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist. This insightful article from nonprofit news organization Dialogue Earth questions whether the Iran war has slowed down the transition to green steel. It appears the conflict could be a short term?negative, but potentially a long-term positive. JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets columnist: It would be a small miracle if the elevated U.S. Inflation returns to "target" without tighter fiscal or monetary policy. Why? The U.S. is at risk of an overheating economy due to its overstimulation. Mike Dolan, ROI's Global Energy Transition Columnist, explains in a compelling way why this is so, in light of the slowing GDP, chaos in politics, and global conflict. GAVIN MAGUIRE is the ROI Global Energy Transition columnist. This report by the Energy Transitions Commission argues that geothermal energy could solve multiple global energy challenges, thanks to recent advances in drilling techniques and successful pilot projects. This podcast by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies examines the impact of the Iran War on the global economy and energy sector. We're watching... JAMIE McGEEVER, ROI markets columnist: The world market has experienced a seismic shift in the last few weeks. The highest U.S. bonds yields have been seen since 2007. Intervention to support the Japanese currency, a crash in South Korea's AI dominated?stock markets, and Wall Street grinding up to new heights. They may seem isolated, but these events are interconnected. In the latest episode of Wealthion's investing podcast "Could Treasury yields Break the AI Boom?," Jesse Felder, an investor and financial writer, explains and explores why wider market turmoil is possible. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. The opinions expressed do not represent the views of News. News is bound by the Trust Principles to maintain integrity, independence and neutrality. (By Anna Szymanski Editing by Marguerita Choy)
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INDIA RUPEE Rupee rises on a weekly basis; traders remain cautious as oil companies and US payrolls loom.
The Indian rupee was essentially unchanged on Friday, and has firmed up modestly over the past week. This is due to central bank intervention that helped ease pressure from rising oil prices. The labour market report. The rupee ended the session at 95.2075 to the dollar. This is a slight increase from its previous close of 95.22, but only 0.2% higher than it was last week. The price of oil rose by 0.3% on Friday to $82.7, as concerns about the reopening of Strait of Hormuz and possible Iranian sanctions against vessels that it considers hostile or in breach of its proposed rules led to the increase. The Middle East conflict continues to be a major overhang for the markets. This has led traders to avoid holding positions going into the weekend. The rupee was kept on a 'tight leash on Friday by dollar sales made by state-run bankers, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India. Its intra-day fluctuation fell to a new multi-month low. The central bank has more ammunition to defend rupees after strong inflows as part of measures to strengthen India’s balance-of-payments. State Bank of India is India's largest bank. It has raised $6 billion in a scheme designed to attract foreign exchange deposits. Later on in the day the focus will be shifted to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data for the previous Month. The U.S.?job market is expected to have improved in July. This will reassure that the labour markets remained strong and allow the Federal Reserve to continue to focus on inflation. In a recent note,?ING stated that "our call?remains a USD weakness over the next two months because we expect the Fed to'stay on hold' this year." According to LSEG, interest?rate futures are pricing about 30 basis point rate increases for the rest of 2026. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair, Sonia Cheema, and Jaspreetkalra)
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India's Hindalco reports a profit increase on the back of higher metal prices
India's Hindalco Industries reported a?"rise" in its first-quarter profits on Friday, thanks to higher aluminum prices and an accelerated production ramp-up. Aditya Birla Group's?firm is one of India's largest aluminium and cobalt producers. The consolidated net income for the three-month period ended June 30 increased by 75.1% to 70.13 billion rupies ($736.12 millions). The Middle East conflict, which has blocked almost 9% global supply, caused the aluminium prices to rise?about 45 percent year-over-year during the second quarter of the year. This was the fourth consecutive quarter that metal prices improved. According to a 'Jefferies Note, the spot copper price also rose?about 40 percent on an annual basis. Mining companies typically enjoy higher profits when commodity prices are higher. Novelis, the company's aluminium-recycling unit, restarted its Oswego plant in New York in early June following fires that occurred in September and November last year. Novelis, a company that supplies rolled aluminum to beverage can manufacturers and auto makers, accounts for?over 60 percent of Hindalco’s revenue. Hindalco’s total revenue from operations rose by 32.1%, to 848.25 bn rupees. Novelis grew at a rate of 35.7%. Aluminum upstream and the copper segment of the firm grew by 43.6% and 15.8% respectively. This was due to higher metal prices and increased volumes. The company's total expenses grew by 25.4% to 741.96 billion rupies, due to an increase of 37% in the cost of materials.
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Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan sign joint defense deal amid regional turmoil
Sources say that a pact will be signed in Mecca this Friday Erdogan, Sharif, and Munir the army chief are scheduled to meet Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman * An agreement was reached after nearly a year-long negotiation, as reported in January. (Adds context and details throughout). By Timour Azhari Ariba?Shahid, and Tuvan Gumrukcu RIYADH/KARACHI/ANKARA, Aug 7 - Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will sign a joint defence agreement in Mecca on Friday, sources with ?knowledge of the matter said, amid regional ?turmoil with Gulf states coming under fire from Iran after it ?was attacked ?by the U.S. and Israel. The pact cements the growing group of Sunni Muslim states that are allied with the United States. However, it is not clear what each state will do or how this might impact the Middle East crisis. The deal was confirmed by a Turkish official after two regional sources who had direct knowledge of the issue said it would be signed Friday. A second regional source stated that it was unclear whether the agreement will also be announced publicly on Friday. As the United States struggles with regional threats, the three nations are increasingly concerned about the Middle?East chaos as well as the role of a revolutionary Shi'ite Iran. Turkey is NATO's second largest military. Saudi Arabia is the largest Gulf state and home to Islam's holiest places. It's also one of the top oil exporters in the world. Pakistan, on the other hand, is the only nuclear-armed Muslim nation. Shehbaz sharif, Pakistani prime minister, and Asim Munir (powerful army chief) arrived in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday. They performed the Umrah Pilgrimage to Mecca. Tayyip Erdoan, the Turkish president, left for Jeddah Friday. The two will be meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman whose country was repeatedly attacked by Iran as well as by Tehran's Houthi ally in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq since the war began in February. The conflict has exposed Gulf state security vulnerabilities, and disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Prior to the war, a fifth of global oil and LNG transited through the Strait of Hormuz. The pact was reached after nearly a full year of negotiations. In January, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Ankara preferred a regional security platform which would promote stability and cooperation. A Saudi official said that the existing Saudi-Pakistani agreement treats any attack on one as an attack against both, and includes "all military methods". Pakistan has avoided becoming militarily involved in the Iran War by attempting to mediate instead. The Pakistani government and military did not respond immediately to requests for comments, but the foreign ministry confirmed the visit to Saudi Arabia as "consolidating ties" with the kingdom. Army chief Munir is responsible for Pakistan's foreign policy and security. The Saudi Arabian government did not respond immediately to a comment request. PACT BUILDING ON LONG-STANDING MULTILITARY TALES The Middle East is in flames since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 on Israel. Nearly every country in the area has experienced cross-border attacks, missiles or drone fire. Both Turkey and Pakistan on the border of the Middle East have avoided direct attacks but are eager to settle conflicts that threaten both their security and economic well-being. Saudi Arabia has suffered more severe consequences from the Middle East conflict than any other country. Its oil exports, ambitious development plans, and its security under U.S. umbrella have all been put at risk. The signing of the agreement on Friday in Mecca will give a symbolic boost to the pact, which builds upon long-standing bilateral military relations between the three countries. Pakistan has been providing training and technical assistance to Saudi Arabian forces for decades. Turkey and Pakistan have also exchanged training aircraft, warships, etc. Riyadh has agreed to buy Turkish drones from Ankara in 2023. This is Ankara's largest defence export contract. In May, it was reported that Pakistan had sent 8,000 troops as well as fighter jets drones and air defence systems to the kingdom. It has also pursued a wider Gulf security relationship. In July, it was reported that Kuwait had begun negotiations over an expanded agreement in exchange for energy investment and cooperation. (By Ariba, Timour, Daren, and Maha El-Dahan, with writing by Angus McDowall, editing by Sharon Singleton.)
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Thyssenkrupp owners vote on materials spinoff in latest restructuring move
Thyssenkrupp shareholders will vote on Friday,?Feb. 14, on the proposal to spin off the materials trading division of the German conglomerate, which is its largest sales division. This is the latest step taken by the German conglomerate in order to streamline its complex structure. Thyssenkrupp would continue its overhaul by spinning off 49% of tk-accelis, which is a wholesaler of raw materials like steel and alloys and operates warehouses for them. Separate listings of the?hydrogen and defence divisions were made in recent years. Investors will vote on the matter at an "extraordinary general meeting" later on Friday. The move could result in tk Accelis listing separately at the end of October with Thyssenkrupp maintaining a majority. LEGAL FORMAT IN FOCUS TOP-20?Shareholder DWS said on Friday that it would abstain on voting for the spinoff. It criticized the planned legal format of tk Accelis, which means parent Thyssenkrupp retains far-reaching controls over the subsidiary even though the company is listed separately. "Anyone who wants to take a company public has to be willing to share control and allow independent oversight," said Philipp Weinmann, DWS' corporate governance expert. Analysts at Jefferies believe that tk Accelis, which has around 15,500 employees, is active in 30 countries, and generated sales of EUR11.4 Billion in the last fiscal year, could achieve an enterprise worth of approximately EUR3.6 Billion ($4.2 Billion). At a capital market day held last month, tk Accelis said it aimed to achieve an adjusted margin of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) between 4% and 5%, as opposed to 2% in the fiscal year 2024/2025. Airbus, BP and Volkswagen are among the customers of the tk accelis?business. In June, the company said it was looking for acquisitions, focusing on the fragmented precious-metals market in North America.
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Oil gains as Gulf tensions escalate; stocks, dollar fall ahead of US employment data
Investor optimism about robust earnings growth and excitement over AI helped offset concerns over another flare-up of Middle East tensions, which boosted oil prices. MSCI's All-World Index?has?risen?2.3% this week. It is the highest in three months. On Friday, it was stable. Shares in drugmakers?and technology companies?lifted Europe's STOXX600 by 0.2% for the day, and 1.6% over the course of the week. Investors are now focused on the U.S. Payrolls Report due later that day. This could be crucial for interest rate outlook. Forecasts predict a gain of 80,000 jobs in July, following a gain of 57,000 in June. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. The money markets indicate that traders are divided on whether the Federal Reserve will increase rates next month. Friday's payrolls data could tip the balance one way or the other. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. JPMorgan's economist said that a positive jobs number would support higher prices for longer and increase pressure on rates. In contrast, stocks may react positively to a weak payrolls report, as yields are easing and expectations of policy shift towards a more dovish direction, said Feroli. Analysts said that given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s unwillingness to provide any guidance as to what to expect from monetary policy, employment data could make a bigger splash than usual in the?market. "An extremely poor or strong print can have a greater impact on prices than it did in the past, when the Fed's options were more clear. "Vacuums have to be filled and the market will always choose itself as a solution," Caxton strategist David Stritch stated. Nasdaq and S&P futures in the U.S. were both flat. Cloudflare shares surged 16% in the Tradegate platform after a strong 18% gain in Thursday's after-hours trading. OIL CLIMBS AGAIN The tensions in the Middle East have risen again since Yemen's Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, attacked Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is a major oil exporter. Riyadh warned that coordinated attacks from the Houthis, and Iran-backed Iraqi militas would be imminent. Brent crude futures rose 1% to $83, but still were set for a loss of 7% per week and remained far below their recent peak at $102 per barrel two weeks ago. Iran is reviewing a draft bill that will bar U.S. and Israeli vessels, as well as other "hostile" ships, from transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. This was reported by Iran's semiofficial Fars News Agency on Thursday. The draft bill could impose fines up to 20% of a ship’s cargo value if the proposed restrictions are violated. Treasury yields were essentially unchanged for the day as trading activity was subdued due to uncertainty surrounding the employment data. The 10-year note yield traded at 4.67%, and the 2-year note yield at 4.243%. The dollar remained steady and the Japanese yen was around 158.4. The U.S. employment report could determine the next moves for the yen, after last week's 'historic' currency market intervention by Japan and the U.S. caused a sharp rally. The dollar has been trading at around its six-week lows, while gold is rising. Gold has increased by over 6% in the past week. This is its highest performance since mid-January when it reached a record of $5,594. Last week, it was up 1.2% to $4,289 per ounce. (Stella Qiu contributed additional reporting from Sydney; editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kate Mayberry)
People flock to the sea, but they can't escape heat in northeast China
Heatwaves in northeast China have caused a number of tourists to flock to the sea to cool off.
On Friday, beachgoers of all ages dotted the water in brightly colored floats along the pebbled?beach at Fujiazhuang Park, in Dalian, a city known for its fresh seafood, Yellow Sea coastline views, and coastal attractions.
Climate change has caused China to experience more heatwaves. The latest heatwave has hit northeastern China, and the Korean Peninsula. South Korea declared an emergency.
Dalian, according to the Chinese agricultural calendar's first day of autumn, recorded a high temperature of 37 degrees Celsius on Friday. According to data collected by the National Forecaster from 1981 to 2010, this is almost 10 degrees Celsius higher than the average August high.
"Originally, we thought Dalian would cool off because it is in the northeast. It?turned out that it was hotter than in Shanxi, where we're from," said a mother of two aged 44, who went by the name Miao. Shanxi is a province located west of Beijing.
She was wearing a face mask, a wide-brimmed cap, and a jacket that protected her from the sun. She also said she brought medicine to treat heatstroke.
Cao, an 62-year old retiree, who took his grandson to the beach said that summer in Dalian wasn't as he remembered.
"This year is much warmer than usual." In previous years the sea breeze kept it cool and was very comfortable. The sun is a little'scorching this year.
State Grid Corporation of China reported this week that the high temperatures in northern, northeastern, and eastern China had pushed up electricity demand to record levels, as residents turned up their air conditioners.
"In the past, we were able to manage without air conditioning for only two weeks and sometimes we didn't need it," said 57-year-old?Feng at a waterfront location?where locals dive off a metal diving boards into the sea. This year we just can't stand it and must use air conditioning. It's essential." Reporting by Liz Lee and Shubing Wang, Editing by Peter Graff
(source: Reuters)