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Climate chief at AfDB warns that a'super El Nino' could cause an economic impact of $10-20 billion dollars in Africa.

The African Development Bank's chief climate expert said that an impending "super El Nino" is likely to cause a combined hit of $10 billion to 20 billion dollars on the affected African countries and lead to mass migration out of hard-hit areas.

Forecasters warn that El Nino, which is often responsible for severe droughts and flooding in Africa, could become one of the most powerful weather patterns ever if the current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue. Along with the threat to water and food security, the government's finances and banking sector could be affected if disasters cause damage to infrastructure and leave cash-strapped nations struggling to repay loans.

Anthony Nyong said that the AfDB director of climate change and green development, Anthony Nyong, stated in an interview, "Just by this event, heavily affected countries will see their GDPs reduced by 1% to 2 percent on average. This is approximately $10 billion to 20 billion dollars across the continent."

AfDB's latest forecasts from May indicated that Africa would experience 4.2% growth in economic output this year. This figure will rise to 4.4% by 2027, if the U.S./Israeli war on Iran is eased.

This was, however, before predictions of an "super" El Nino or "Godzilla El Nino" were made.

Nyong is the first major multilateral bank to estimate the impact of?El Nino' at $10-20 billion. He did not give a breakdown by country of the estimated damage, but warned that it would likely be more than a single event.

Mozambique, after experiencing Cyclone Idai, in 2019, showed that it could take many years to recover.

The government is also caught in the "climate financing trap", Nyong called it, where they are not able to deal with crises because of a lack of resources and have to take money from infrastructure, health or education budgets.

El Nino 2023-2024 caused droughts in Southern Africa, and heavy rains and floods?in East Africa. The conditions caused widespread crop failures and a spike in food prices. They also led to record sea levels along the coasts of Africa.

AfDB estimates that Africa's farmers will lose nearly $330 Million in income this year. The fishing industry could also be hard hit due to increasing sea temperatures and storms.

Nyong stated that "when these shocks occur, countries take two step back." "We do not want our countries to slip into poverty."

SEPTEMBER SEMMINAR

In September, the AfDB will intensify its response to El Nino by holding a "seminar", as senior staff evaluates potential impacts on existing and planned investments.

Nyong said that it was ready to restructure its projects in order to help countries deal with El Nino’s impacts. It would also work with these countries to access additional multilateral funding, such as the Green Climate Fund – the largest climate fund dedicated to date.

He added that other possible sources of assistance could be the Adaptation Funds, Climate Investment Funds, and newer Loss-and-Damage Financing Mechanisms.

A report by the United Nations in October estimated that developing countries would need to collectively spend $365 billion a year in order to combat climate change, but international public adaptation financing was only $26 billion as of 2023.

Nyong stated that Africa would now require as much as 100 billion dollars this year, given the anticipated strength of El Nino.

Nyong, speaking of the next year, said that "the (climate adaption finance) needed was already about $50 billion." "But that's $30 to $50 billion more".

MASS MIGRATION

Nyong stated that humanitarian pressures will add to the problem, and the bank has identified Sudan, South Sudan Democratic Republic of Congo Somalia Mali Burundi Burundi and Nigeria as countries which could be particularly affected.

He said that when El Nino hits, there will be mass migration. The price of maize - a staple food in many countries - is expected to double. "You will not stay where you are, but move," he said.

Nyong stated that the resulting shortages of resources and competition over grazing land, water, and other natural resources could 'exacerbate fragility already present in some regions. Nyong estimated that agricultural losses would be around $327million and fisheries productivity will fall by 1%-4%.

He added that Africa needs to take more action in order to increase its resilience, before disasters strike. This theme will be at the center of the next round global climate talks to be held in Turkey, in November.

He said, "It's cheaper to build fences around precipices than pay for expensive ambulances that wait at the bottom to see if people fall." "Let's build the fence".

(source: Reuters)