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StatsCan survey shows that Canada's wheat and barley production is down but canola, oats, and canola are up.

StatsCan survey shows that Canada's wheat and barley production is down but canola, oats, and canola are up.

Statistics Canada released a report on Thursday that showed Canada's crops were in a wide range of conditions at the end of July. However, total production was close to expectations.

Analysts said that this range and the heavy rainfall in August make it less likely than previous years to be able to predict production based on data from late July.

After the report's release, Seges Markets analyst Lawrence Klusa said: "It was such a variable year." It's very hard to tell if the late rains have helped or hurt the crop.

Model-based assessment predicts a canola harvest of 19,9 million metric tonnes, an all wheat crop of 35,6 million tons and a spring grain crop of 25,6 million tons.

Statistics Canada estimates that wheat production will fall by 1.1% in Canada in 2025, compared to the production of 2024. Canola production, however, is expected to increase by 3.6%. This projection was based on satellite data and agroclimatic information.

Barley production fell 1.9% in 2025. The durum production, which is the wheat used for pasta, was estimated at 6.1 millions tonnes.

After the report, the ICE canola market fell. Traders believed that the actual size of the crop was a million tonnes larger than originally thought due to the excellent August weather. They expect Statistics Canada to revise this total upward.

Tony Tryhuk, a trader at RBC Dominion Securities, said that "no one perceived the report as friendly."

People who received moisture for late-seeded plants have really, truly benefited.

StatsCan reported that crop conditions in the Prairies were varied, with some regions receiving less than average precipitation while others experienced prolonged temperatures above normal.

According to the agency, prairie conditions were much lower than usual or much higher than average at the end July.

Analysts and farmers said that August was a near-ideal month for canola pod filling, with cooler temperatures and frequent rain showers across the region.

A significant area was affected by extreme heat and dryness in spring and early summer and lost much of its yield potential.

In other parts of Canada, crop conditions were above average. In Ontario, rainfall was below-average while in Quebec it was above average.

Model-based yields are used to calculate production estimates for Quebec and Ontario. Estimates of Prince Edward Island (PEI), Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and British Columbia were all carried forward from July estimates.

(source: Reuters)