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European stocks remain steady as traders await U.S. inflation figures
The dollar was stable and oil prices were down as traders waited to see U.S. data on inflation. Wall Street had Close higher On Thursday, sentiments were boosted by the White House's confirmation that U.S. president Donald Trump will be attending. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, will be visiting Asia next week. The meeting was seen as an indication of the slight easing of tensions between China and the U.S. before a deadline of November 1, for additional U.S. duties on Chinese imports. The Shanghai Composite Index in China rose by 0.4% to its highest level since August 2015. European markets opened higher but then became mixed and lost direction. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up by 0.1% at 0850 GMT. It is on course to gain a week. London's FTSE 100 also showed little change. The MSCI World Equity Index was up around 0.1%, resulting in a gain of 1.2% for the entire week. The U.S. Stock Markets have surged in this year and reached record highs, as traders pour money into artificial intelligence Bet that the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to reduce rates. Investors waited for U.S. Inflation data on Friday. The data was delayed because of the Government shutdown . It is expected that the Consumer Price Index report (CPI), which will be released later in this session, will show core inflation at 3.1% for September. Next week, the Fed is expected cut rates by 25 basis points. Peter Fitzgerald, Chief Investment Officer for Macro at Aviva Investors, said: "It is a continuation in a generally supportive environment for equity markets where interest rates have been broadly falling across developed markets with Japan being the notable exception. Volatility has begun to drop again after a short spike, and there are no major earnings surprises." He said that it was impossible to know when or where a bull run would end. Large technology companies. TRUMP CANCELS CANADA TRADE NEGOTIATIONS The dollar index rose to 99.045 on Monday, an increase of around 0.1%. Canadian dollar Trump's impact was limited Saying on Social Media He said that he would end all trade negotiations with Canada over what he called a fraudulent advertisement Ronald Reagan, the late former president, speaks negatively about tariffs. As the new Prime Minister of Japan promised economic stimulus, the yen fell. The dollar-yen pair was at 152.97. The dollar was stable at $1.1611. The euro zone's business activity grew more rapidly than expected in October. Data shown . Euro zone government Bond yields are rising After the data, Germany's Bund yields hit 2.612%. Oil prices After the U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies,, which had gained 5%, slowed down, but they were still on course for a weekly increase. Gold fell around 1.5% per day to $4,064.26 an ounce. It is on course for a weekly decline, ending its nine week winning streak. Gold funds received their The largest weekly inflow Bank of America Global Research reported that the number of people who died in the past week was up from Wednesday. Apple and Microsoft are among the five "Magnificent 7" U.S. firms at the heart of the artificial-intelligence boom that will report their earnings next week. Intel's earnings will be announced on Thursday beat expectations
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Take Five: Make or Break
The week will be dominated by renewed trade tensions, talks between Washington and Beijing, and decisions made by the central banks of the United States, Canada, and Europe. Meanwhile, Argentina's voters go to the polls. Dhara Ranasinghe, Alden B. Bentley, Lewis Krauskopf, and Rodrigo Campos in New York and Kevin Buckland, in Tokyo, give you all the information about what to expect in world markets this week. 1/ A MIDTERM DRAMA The mid-term elections in Argentina on Sunday will be a crucial moment for the biggest reform story of emerging markets. Right-wing president Javier Milei wants to consolidate his minority position following his economic reform program that has crushed inflation and strengthened ties with Washington, which have produced some of the best returns in emerging markets since he assumed office in December 2023. But despite the unprecedented support of U.S. president Donald Trump, which includes direct intervention in the FX market, a central bank swap line worth $20 billion and the prospect for another $20 billion loan, the peso has continued to fall to record lows. All of this could be swept away if Milei has a poor result. This would also hinder reforms and raise questions for investors about how they should shape their long-term investments in the country. IT'S AI, STUPID The earnings of megacap tech companies and growth companies are the highlight of a week full of corporate results in the United States that may shed light on how the "AI trade" is doing. Microsoft, Apple Alphabet Amazon Meta Platforms and Amazon are all part of the "Magnificent 7" megacaps that dominate equity indices. In the next week, one-third of S&P500 constituents will report, including oil giants Exxon, Chevron, and Visa and Mastercard. Investors will also examine data to determine the cost and impact of a shift in U.S. Trade Policy. According to LSEG data, S&P 500 companies have reported a 9.2% increase in Q3 earnings compared to the previous year. A greater than usual number of companies has exceeded profit expectations so far. 3/COUNTING on a CUT The markets are almost certain that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to cut interest rates a quarter point when they conclude their meeting on Wednesday. They are also confident about another reduction in December. This year-end cut could be less obvious if the shutdown continues, as data-driven policymakers will have no official economic indicators. Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping Thursday, as part of a visit to Asia on the sidelines the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit. The long-awaited meeting was put into doubt after escalating trade tensions. It's not all about the FED. That's correct, the Bank of Canada will also cut rates on Wednesday, despite Trump's announcement to end trade talks. The European Central Bank will end its meeting on Thursday. It appears to be in a "nothing-to-see" mode. A poll of economists predicts that it will likely leave rates at 2% for the third consecutive meeting and remain on pause until the end the year. The downside risks of the economy are causing traders to predict a 65% chance that a quarter point cut will be made by mid-2026. However, headwinds are on the horizon. Aside from the trade tensions, France is also experiencing political turmoil and there will be an election on Wednesday in The Netherlands that is dominated by populist currents. Christine Lagarde, the ECB's chief, may be asked if the bloc is still in a good place. 5/HIKE HOLDED? Bank of Japan will likely hold off on a rate increase next Thursday, opting instead for a hike in December or early January. This is not because of pressure from Japan's new dovish premier. Sanae Takaichi - the new fiscal and monetary dove who was appointed to the top position on Tuesday - is expected to not delay the tightening of monetary policy, according two-thirds polled. However, her often-repeated belief that the central banks should align with government policies has been echoed by many analysts. Analysts and traders instead point to BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda’s consistently cautious tone. This is especially true on the potential fallout from tariffs, despite his board making a conspicuously aggressive pivot last month. Most analysts are looking at a December increase as soon as possible, based on his desire to have more data. This includes U.S. holiday shopping trends.
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Sources: Japan's Q4 aluminium price is $86 per ton, a 20% drop from Q3.
Five sources involved directly in the price negotiations said that the premium for aluminium shipments for Japanese buyers from October to December has been set at $86 per ton. This is down 20% on the previous quarter due to weak demand. This is a lower figure than the $108 paid per ton in the quarter July-September and marks the third consecutive decline. Japan is the largest Asian importer for premiums and light metals For primary metal shipments, it agrees to each quarter pay over the London Metal Exchange cash price that is the benchmark for the area. Early in September, pricing talks were held between Japanese aluminium purchasers and global producers like Rio Tinto and South32. They were to be concluded by the end the month. They lasted longer than normal as both sides tried to close the gap. The producers initially offered premiums between $98 and $103 per ton, down from the previous quarter by 5% to 9%. A producer cut its price to $97 but buyers wanted levels in the 80s citing premiums of $70s. A source from a Japanese fabricator revealed that producers eventually agreed to $86 this past week and that buyers accepted it, despite their bids remaining in the low-$80s. The source added that high inventories kept prices in the 80s. Three major Japanese ports have large stocks of aluminium According to Marubeni, the trading house, the total volume of coal sold in September was 341,300 tonnes, an increase of 1.8% over the previous month. A producer source stated that "we cut offers to reflect the slow demand and to meet buyers' voice," noting that sellers had held out until last week for higher prices, as it was expected that rising premiums in Europe and the United States would tighten supply in Asia. Sources declined to identify themselves due to the sensitive nature of the issue. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Louise Heavens and Yuka Obayashi)
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On a sub-Antarctic Island, hundreds of seal pups likely died from bird flu
Authorities said that Australian scientists found hundreds of dead pup seals on Heard Island, in the subantarctic. The signs they had on their bodies suggested that the birds flu virus that has been sweeping the world was responsible for the deaths. Since 2021, the virulent strain H5N1 of bird flu has infected poultry farms, dairy farms, and some farmworkers. It has killed millions and affected wild bird populations. In a press release, the Australian agriculture department stated that "at this stage there is no confirmed detection". It added that samples of dead seals would be sent to Australia for testing. The ministry said that since the virus had already been detected on nearby French Kerguelen islands and Crozet Islands, it was not surprising to see symptoms of H5 bird influenza in wildlife on Heard Island. Australia is the only continent that has not been infected by the virus. The virus could spread further through Antarctica, increasing the risk from the south. Heard Island is the furthest south the influenza virus has spread in Antarctica since its arrival from South America, in 2023. It is home to large numbers of seabirds, penguins, and seals. The volcano, which rises from the ocean more than 4,000 kilometers (2,486 mile) southwest of Perth, and about 1,700 km (1.060 miles north of Antarctica), was formed by a 2,745 meter (9,006 foot) high mountain. Julie McInnes is an ecologist with the Australian Antarctic Division. She spent 10 days in Antarctica and found that animals were healthy until they came across hundreds of dead elephant pups. McInnes said that a large number of pups were in this section. Researchers will return to the island around the end of the year. It is not clear if the virus will spread. The Agriculture Ministry said that the confirmation of bird influenza would not increase the risk of spreading it to Australia. Australia is preparing for H5N1 bird influenza. It has tightened biosecurity on farms, tested shore birds for disease and vaccinated vulnerable species. Reporting by Peter Hobson, Canberra; Editing and production by Aurora Ellis and Clarence Fernandez
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Erdogan: Turkey's Erdogan claims that talks with Qatar and Oman about Eurofighter procurement are going well
Tayyip Erdoan said that he had held discussions on Turkey's plans to acquire Eurofighter Typhoon jet fighters from Qatar, Oman and the Gulf during a tour of the region. He added that these talks were going well. Reports on Wednesday said that Ankara has proposed ways to acquire advanced fighter jets to its European and American allies, amid discussions to purchase 40 Eurofighter Typhoons and U.S. F-16s or F-35s. This is happening as President Tayyip Erdoan makes a regional trip to Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. According to a person with knowledge of the situation, under the deal that Britain is close to signing with Turkey on Typhoons the country would receive 12 of the aircraft, even if they were lightly used by previous buyers Qatar or Oman, in order for it meet its immediate requirements. Erdogan told reporters that Turkey is continuing talks on procurement with Qatar and Oman. The discussions included "many details", and were going in a positive direction. "We are working to complete these quickly and, God willing make our Air Force stronger. According to a transcription of his remarks shared by his office, he stated that the jets would make our Air Force much stronger. (Reporting and editing by Jonathan Spicer; Tuvan Gumrukcu)
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China's lithium prices reach a 2-month high due to falling inventories and improving demand
Analysts said that the price of lithium carbonate futures in China reached a two-month peak on Friday. This was due to falling inventories and improved demand from electric vehicles and energy storage sectors. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's most active futures contract for lithium carbonate reached its highest level in 11 months at 80,880 Yuan ($11354.77) per metric ton, before paring the gains to close daytime trading 1.33% higher, at 79.520 Yuan. Shares of major producers such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others rose by 0.22 % and 1.25 % respectively, thanks to higher prices. The demand for battery materials was driven by the explosive growth of the electric vehicle sector. According to the statistics bureau of China, September's output of new energy vehicles rose 20.3% compared to a year ago. This is a nine-month record. China announced in September its plans to almost double its energy storage capacity. energy storage By 2027, the capacity will be 180 gigawatts. Analysts at GF Futures published a note Thursday predicting that the consumption of lithium carbonate will increase by 5% this October, after a 12% rise in September. According to consultancy Fubao, persistently falling inventories, which fell to their lowest level in July, 127.500 tons, on October 23 lent further support to the prices. Su Jinyi is an analyst at Fubao based in Wuxi. She said that "restocking by downstream consumers has increased since September. This has led to a continual drawdown of lithium stocks." Analysts and traders said that the Guangzhou Exchange's falling warrants, which are documents granting ownership of the shares, also contributed to the price increase. Wu Jiang is a Beijing analyst with broker SDIC Futures. He said, "It indicates that some cargoes are being pulled out of warehouses and this signals an improvement in demand on the spot market." Some analysts questioned the durability of the rally citing a persistent oversupply resulting from rapid capacity expansions and a slowing demand growth. $1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Additional reporting by Dylan Duan).
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Iron ore prices fall on declining Chinese demand
The price of iron ore futures fell on Friday after a three-session streak of gains, as the demand for steel in China, the world's largest consumer, slowed. The January contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 0.58% lower, at 771 Yuan ($108.24), a metric tonne. This was a 0.1% drop in a week. At 0711 GMT on Monday, November benchmark iron ore at the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.57% to $104.05 per ton. This represents a 0.1% increase so far in this week. Ying Cao is an analyst based in Beijing at SDIC Futures. She said that lower hot metal production, a measure of iron ore consumption, dragged prices down for the main steelmaking ingredient. The average daily hot metal production fell for the fourth consecutive week, by 0.4% compared to the previous week. It was the lowest level since September 5, at 2.4 millions tons as of October 23. Cao said that he expects hot metal production to continue to decline in the next few weeks, as higher coal prices have forced some mills into reducing output. Analysts at GF Futures reported that coke and other steelmaking components, such as coking coal, continued to gain, with gains of 1.42% and 1.53 percent, respectively. This was boosted by a falling supply due to the halting of mining operations at some coal production centers, they said. The price decline was limited by the hope that tensions between traders in the two world's largest economies would ease. He Lifeng, the Chinese Vice Premier, will meet with U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent as well as Trade Rep Jamieson Greer on Friday in an effort to calm down tensions ahead of a scheduled meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar fell 0.75%; wire rod dropped 0.18%, while hot-rolled coil ticked up by 0.03%. Stainless steel rose 0.71%. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Colleen Howe)
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ASIA GOLD - India demand drops after the festive rush, and price falls encourages buyers to buy elsewhere
This week, physical gold demand in India fell as buyers held off purchases in anticipation of a further price correction. Meanwhile, a drop in interest rates in China and Singapore prompted buyers to purchase. This week, Indian dealers quoted a premium. Up to $25 per ounce above official domestic prices. This includes 6% import duties and 3% sales taxes, which are unchanged from the previous week. On Friday, domestic gold prices traded at around 122.700 rupees for 10 grams after reaching a record high last week of 132.294 rupees. Gold spot prices are on course for their first weekly decline in 10 years. Last week, gold was being bought at any price. This week's price correction has caused them to be cautious. Some have even delayed purchases, hoping for a larger drop. Indians celebrated the Dhanteras (Diwali) and Diwali (Dhanteras) festivals over the past few days. These are occasions where buying gold is deemed auspicious, and they're also among the busiest days for gold purchases in the country. A Mumbai-based bullion seller with a private banking firm said that new import orders were now placed more cautiously, and in smaller quantities. The recent price correction will likely lower the import base price next week. The import duty is calculated using the base price of gold imported every two weeks. Bullion prices in China's top consumer ranged from discounts of up to $20 per ounce, or a premium as high as $8 over the global benchmark price. . Bernard Sin, Regional Director of Greater China for MKS PAMP, said that despite the sharp fluctuations in gold prices between $4,000 and $3,300/oz there was little evidence of traders selling their physical holdings. Investors continue to hold their positions amid macroeconomic uncertainties and falling real interest rates. Gold in Hong Kong In Singapore, the price was $2.20 higher than in Singapore. Gold traded at par prices with a premium of $2.50. "We've continued to see good demand. Especially this week, when prices dropped, we've had quite a few clients come to buy gold and silver, to take advantage of this opportunity to get into the market," said Brian Lan. In Japan, gold The price was $1 higher than the spot price.
As wildfires erase forests, Greeks argument: to replant, or not?
When a wildfire tore down a. hillside towards Athens last month, its southernmost flank. stopped in a treeless area burned by fire two years in the past. A few. miles west, nevertheless, the blaze found fresh fuel: woods and scrub. that provided a course towards the city's residential areas.
In its way stood the leafy village of Penteli, where Marlena. Kaloudi has lived considering that the 1970s. The fire swept through her. house. However what harmed most when she returned was the sight of her. pine trees, some over 100 years of ages, charred to an autumnal. brown.
The most significant catastrophe ... is not our house - this can be. brought back, stated Kaloudi, sitting by her gutted back deck. It's. those trees that were here before us and we hoped and prayed. would be here after us.
The devastation is a familiar sight in Greece and throughout the. Mediterranean region where fires have ended up being more regular and. strong, driven by greater temperatures and drier conditions that. researchers connect to environment change.
In the Attica region surrounding Athens, blazes have. destroyed 37% of its forests and meadows considering that 2017,. according to information launched in August by the National Observatory. of Athens, a government-funded research study centre. More than 60% of. broad-leafed forest and 41% of coniferous forest has actually been burned. and has not completely regrown.
The loss raises the risk of flash floods from rains on. denuded grounds no longer safeguarded by tree canopies and root. systems, in addition to greater air temperatures brought on by the. heating of unshaded ground, desertification and poorer air. quality, four experts stated.
It has actually likewise ignited an argument about what the government. reaction ought to be: continue with a program of replanting trees. that might offer fuel for future fires, or, as some scientists. desire, search for brand-new methods to adjust.
For Kaloudi, it's an apparent choice. After the last fire,. which went on to smother the city's northern residential areas, her. neighbours asked her to cut down the staying trees in her. garden. She refused.
The loss of this forest frightens me, she stated. What. scares me is the fact that there are individuals who want to cut the. trees that are left.
PLANT MORE TREES?
Wildfires have drastically modified Attica's landscape,. satellite images show. Hillsides, forested a few years earlier, have. become bald and rocky. Locations where forests do resprout are often. reburned. Bird song has actually vanished with the trees.
Data from Global Forest Watch, an effort that utilizes. satellites to track deforestation, shows that of all the. fire-related forest loss in Attica given that 2000, 74% has actually taken place. since 2017.
Greece is not alone. The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on. Environment Modification (IPCC) has actually highlighted the Mediterranean region. as a 'international environment hotspot', with an increase in surface. temperature levels of 1.5 C from pre-industrial levels already driving. an increased threat of wildfires and drought.
Wildfires are also a growing danger in the United States,. Canada, Australia, and even the rainy United Kingdom. With that. threat has actually come an argument about what to do with a forest once it. has actually burned.
Some wish to replant trees to bring back root systems and to. recover lost carbon sinks. Others state forests and fire zones do. not mix.
Up until now, there is no clear evidence of which side is appropriate,. and regional elements identify what is best, the 4 specialists said. Still, some say a rethink is needed, specifically in areas where. the same locations are being repeatedly burned.
There is no terrific consensus on what to do, stated Camille. Stevens-Rumann, associate professor of fire ecology at Colorado. State University. Individuals typically want places to look like how. they did before, but that may not be suitable in a new fire. program.
Greece desires its forests back. With the aid of 450 million. euros from the EU, the federal government has embraced a nationwide fire. prevention plan that likewise consists of planting 1 million trees in. Attica.
The increase of greenery and its conservation is not only a. objective of the government but of the entire European Union, said. Efstathios Stathopoulos, Greece's General Secretary of Forestry.
The EU has a strategy to replant 3 billion trees throughout the bloc. by 2030, although the plan is not concentrated on replanting after. fires.
Not everyone believes resowing forests after fires works.
Theodore Giannaros, a fire meteorologist at the National. Observatory of Athens, surveilled a hillside outside Athens. blackened by last month's fire.
Next year, he said, the ground there, currently baking in. summer, will be even hotter for the absence of shade. The loss of. tree root systems will make the soil looser, increasing the danger. of floods or landslides, he said. There will be more dust.
Less flammable vegetation like some kinds of turfs or. agricultural land is the response, not trees, he said.
We have to seriously concentrate on how to bring back the landscape,. not just planting trees and forests, however in a way that will. be ... more durable versus natural catastrophes.
Fernando Pulido, teacher of forestry science at the. University of Extremadura in Spain, advised planting crops. or creating other barriers between dense forests in the. Mediterranean region.
This involves a modification in mentality ... however it's the only. method to guarantee that there won't be another fire at the very same. place after eight or 10 years, he stated.
THE FALLOUT
Meanwhile, areas previously untouched by fires are being. hit.
Thodoris Arvanitis has actually been a natural farmer on a 100-acre. plot in a woody location north of Athens for 35 years. He had actually a. school for aiming farmers, living quarters for employees, and. rows of polytunnels for his fruit and vegetables.
Last month, most of what he developed - up to 1 million euros of. devices and crops - was burned by the fire. Now, the sheet. metal of a gutted farmhouse clatters in the wind. A line of. newly planted fig trees is wiped out; stacks of charred. potatoes have actually been delegated rot.
Not all the crops were lost, and Arvanitis plans to reconstruct. On a current afternoon, personnel bagged up aubergines, french beans. and melons for delivery to consumers.
But he had a hard time to include his feelings when he talked. about the blaze, which was brought towards his home on the. surrounding trees. Without any assistance from the fire brigade, he. depended on other residents to help that day.
We were putting out fires occasionally. However new ones kept. breaking out. At some point we could not do anything more. The. fire was right outside our farm..
(source: Reuters)