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Wall Street is expected to open lower following Trump's visa crackdown. Rate outlook in focus

Wall Street opened lower on Monday, as investors were cautious about whether geopolitical worries could offset the Federal Reserve's loosening of monetary policy.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were both down about 0.3%. Donald Trump announced on Friday that U.S. firms would have to pay $100,000 in order to obtain new H-1B visas. This could be a blow for the U.S. technology sector, which is dominant.

Investors can expect to hear from several Fed officials as the markets wait for the Fed's preferred inflation indicator on Friday. Luxury carmakers, regional banks and weak demand for EVs hampered Europe’s markets Monday. Porsche and Volkswagen's parent company both cut their profit estimates after delaying the launch of EVs.

The euro zone banks are down about 1%, and Spain's Sabadell is down more than 3%. This comes after BBVA announced that it had increased its offer for the bank to 3,39 euros per share by 10%.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell 0.2%, with Spanish stocks down more than 1% and German markets down by 0.6%.

MSCI's broadest world stock index was also little changed. India's benchmark stock index fell by 0.6% after Trump's announcements regarding new H-1B visas. India's $283-billion information technology sector will feel the impact in the short term. More than half of its revenue comes from the U.S.

Trump also increased tariffs last month on Indian imports to up to 50% in part due to New Delhi purchasing Russian oil. Stocks in China were choppy, even though Trump claimed that he and Chinese president Xi Jinping made progress on a TikTok deal. The blue-chip CSI300 closed about 0.5% higher.

FED POLICY A OUTLOOK

Investors are still keen to assess the U.S. policy direction after the Fed announced a future phase of gradual easing. The traders have priced in 44 basis point easing for the last two policy meetings.

The week will see a number of policymakers speak, including John Williams and Thomas Barkin on Monday and Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman and Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

James Rossiter is the head of global macro-strategy at TD Securities. He hopes that these remarks over the next couple days will help shape market expectations.

The Fed will release data on its preferred inflation gauge on Friday, which will help to set the tone of the rate outlook for the near term.

Tony Sycamore is a market analyst for IG. He believes that the PCE core price index will rise 0.2% monthly in August, keeping the annual rate at 2.9% and above the low of 2.6% it reached in April.

Sycamore stated that the U.S. Dollar short trade is crowded, even though a shorter rate-cutting period should theoretically weigh on the U.S. Dollar. The dollar index, he added, has been losing its downward momentum after a tumultuous start.

The dollar index (which measures the U.S. unit against six others) fell 0.3% to 97.48. The Japanese yen remained at 147.87 against the U.S. Dollar after strengthening on Friday, following Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance where two members of its board voted to keep interest rates unchanged. Brent crude futures fell 47 cents to $66.20 per barrel despite increased geopolitical tensions across Europe and the Middle East. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Futures dropped 31 cents to reach $62.37.

Gold prices have risen, with the last increase of about 1.2%, reaching new record highs at over $3,726 an ounce. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie, Ankur Banerjee and Shri Navaratnam. Editing and proofreading by Jacqueline Wong.

(source: Reuters)