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WTI-Brent Spread at its Narrowest in Nearly Two Years as US Prices Rise

Analysts and traders reported that the spread between U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and Brent crude futures was at its tightest since September 2023 as U.S. oil prices increased on a declining rig count, and Canadian wildfires cut supply.

Brent futures were up 2.75% as OPEC+ increased output, limiting gains.

Why it's important

A narrower spread can indicate a closed window of arbitrage for traders, and weaker shipping economies to Europe and Asia. If Brent crude premium remains low, the tighter spread could be an early indication that U.S. crude imports are likely to fall in the coming weeks.

Since the Dated Brent price is determined by WTI Midland most trading days, the spread between them is more closely correlated with freight rates.

By the numbers, the spread between two crude benchmarks was as low as $2.78 per barrel on Friday. A discount of $4 a barrel is usually considered to be the level which encourages U.S. imports into Europe as traders view it as an arbitrage opportunity.

According to Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group, the spread has remained below $4 a barrel on average since May 1. This is partly due to concern about U.S. oil production.

Since April, OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and others have increased their production by 1.37 million barrels a day or 62%, of the 2.2 millions bpd that they intend to bring back onto the market. Baker Hughes, the energy services company, said that the U.S. oil rig count fell four times to 559 during the week ending June 6. This is the lowest level since November 2021. It has sparked some concern about future U.S. output. Traders and analysts say that this has created a price which encourages U.S. crude oil to stay on the domestic market.

Analysts said that the wildfires in Canada's oil producing province of Alberta, have further boosted U.S. crude prices, as Canadian crude production has decreased by approximately 7%.

Sparta Commodities analysts said that the Canadian wildfire season is underway and further disruptions could push WTI/Brent below $3 in the summer.

KEY QUOTES

Flynn, of Price Futures Group, said: "When you take a look at the WTI/Brent Spread you can see a bit the concern about the leveling off U.S. Production and the tightening up of export barrels."

(source: Reuters)