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US natgas will be less expensive than coal in 2024 for the very first time, EIA says

U.S. natural gas will be cheaper to burn than coal in 2024 for the first time ever, the U.S. Energy Info Administration (EIA) said in its ShortTerm Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

The use of coal to generate U.S. power has been falling Because gas produces less carbon, versus gas for years in part dioxide and other emissions and its relative cost to coal has dropped, particularly this year.

In 2024, area gas costs at the U.S. Henry Center standard << NG-W-HH-SNL > in Louisiana will average just $2.15 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) versus $2.45 for coal, EIA said.

If right, that would be the first time on record yearly typical gas costs were lower than coal costs, according to federal energy information going back to 2001.

That compares with average rates of $2.54 per mmBtu for gas and $2.52 for coal in 2023, and averages of $3.62 for gas and simply $2.07 for coal over the prior five years (2018-2022).

EIA stated gas' share of power generation would hold at 42% in 2024, the same as 2023, before alleviating to 41% in 2025. Coal's. share, nevertheless, will drop from 17% in 2023 to 15% in 2024 and. 14% in 2025.

The agency projected U.S. coal production would fall from a. two-year low of 581.6 million short loads in 2023 to 485.2. million loads in 2024, the most affordable since 1963, and 464.2 million. heaps in 2025, the lowest because 1962, as gas and renewable. sources of power displace coal-fired plants.

EIA also lowered its projection for U.S. coal exports by more. than 30% in April and 20% in May compared with the March STEO. after the Port of Baltimore was closed as an outcome of the. collapse of the Francis Scott Secret bridge. Baltimore is the. second-largest export hub for U.S. coal.

The agency projected U.S. coal exports will fall from a. five-year high of 99.8 million short heaps in 2023 to 94.5. million short tons in 2024 before rising to 104.9 million brief. lots in 2025. Coal exports hit a record 125.7 million short tons. in 2012.

(source: Reuters)