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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Stocks sell off, US dollar weakens as Trump tariffs fuel economic worries

Stock indexes fell on Thursday with the S&P 500 falling more than 4 percent, the U.S. Dollar weakened, and oil prices dropped more than 6 percent as Donald Trump's U.S. tariffs caused investors to flee for safe havens like bonds and yen.

The new 10% baseline tariff on imported products, plus the eye-watering tariffs that Trump imposed on dozens countries he claimed had unfair trade barriers, left traders frightened by their severity.

Investors are concerned that a full-blown dispute over trade could lead to a global economic slowdown, and even inflation. The latest round of U.S. tariffs has hit a world economy still recovering from the inflation spike after the pandemic and is also dealing with geopolitical tensions.

The euro rose by 1.53% against the dollar

dollar

. The dollar fell by 2.07% against the Japanese yen to 146.15.

The Nasdaq fell more than 5% on the day, with shares related to technology being amongst the biggest drags. Apple's stock dropped 9.2% as a result of tariffs imposed on China, the country where it does most of its manufacturing. Amazon.com fell 7.9%, Microsoft dropped 1.5% and Nvidia fell 6.9%.

As worries have grown, the losses are on top of trillions already lost by the "Magnificent Seven", tech giants. CBOE Volatility Index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, reached a new three-week high of 26.91 points. Oil prices dropped and the S&P 500's energy sector fell more than 6%.

Bruce Zaro is the managing director of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts.

Investors adjust their outlook based in part on the possible impact of tariffs, said he, adding that "we have seen and will continue to see drastic reductions in earning estimates." This is going to take a while.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,317.59 or 3.12% to 40,909.33. The S&P 500 declined 227.17 or 4.01% to 5,443.80. And the Nasdaq Composite was down 912.44 or 5.18% to 16,688.61.

The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 23.64 points or 2.83% to 812.47.

RECIPROCAL LEVY

The 27-country EU block in Europe now faces a reciprocal 20% levy. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index fell by 2.57%.

Trump's tariffs were particularly harsh on Asia. China received a reciprocal tariff of 34%, Japan was hit by 24%, South Korea with 25%, and Vietnam with 46%.

In response, Vietnamese stocks fell 6.7%. The Nikkei 225 index fell 2.8%.

Nigel Green is the CEO of deVere Group, a global financial advisory firm. He said: "This is what you do when you claim to supercharge the economic engine of the world."

Pham Minh Chinh, the Vietnamese Prime Minister, has pledged that the country will maintain its economic growth goal of at least 8 percent for this year despite the U.S. placing a heavy tariff on Vietnam's exports.

The rush to buy ultra-safe government securities that guarantee a steady income has driven down U.S. Treasury rates. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill in the United States fell by 15.3 basis points, to 4.042%. It had previously fallen to 4.004%. This was its lowest level since October 16. The yield of the 10-year Treasury note is on course for its largest daily decline since August 2.

The yields on government bonds in the Eurozone fell. Germany's benchmark 10-year yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 2.65% after reaching 2.625%. This was its lowest level since March 4.

If tariffs cause recessions, the central banks of the world will likely lower interest rates. This is good for bonds.

Fitch, a credit rating agency, warned that they could be a game-changer for the U.S. economy and global economies. Deutsche Bank said it was a moment "once in a life time" which could reduce U.S. economic growth by between 1%-1.5% this year.

Olu Sonola, Fitch's director of U.S. Economic Research, said that many countries would likely be in a state of recession. If this tariff rate is maintained for a long time, you can forget about most forecasts.

Fitch soon downgraded China’s credit rating citing steep U.S. Tariffs as the reason.

The oil prices fell, with U.S. Crude down 6.5% to $67.05 per barrel and Brent down 6.24% at $70.27 a barrel.

Gold reached a record-high above $3,160 per ounce but then lost steam. Spot gold fell 0.85% to $3,106.99 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)