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Hedge funds restore oil position after OPEC? round trip: Kemp

Portfolio investors have reconstruct their position in petroleum after reassurance from Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies that any scheduled future boosts in production would be contingent on market conditions.

Recently hedge funds and other cash managers turned their attention to improving Brent positions, after a large dive in NYMEX and ICE WTI the week before, according to records filed with exchanges and regulators.

Fund managers acquired the equivalent of 69 million barrels of futures and alternatives connected to Brent over the seven days ending on June 18, the fourth fastest boost for any week given that 2013.

Fast Brent buying followed fund managers purchased 42 million barrels of NYMEX and ICE WTI, along with 26 million barrels of Brent, the previous week.

Chartbook: Oil and gas positions

As an outcome, positions and prices have reverted to where they were before OPEC? announced on June 2 it would increase production from the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, subject to market conditions.

Total Brent and WTI positions amounted to 300 million barrels on June 18 up from an immediate post-announcement low of 164 million on June 4 but hardly changed from 319 million on May 28.

Fund managers are cynical about the outlook for prices in the short term, with the net position in just the 13th percentile for all weeks because 2013.

But expectations OPEC? was about to flood the market with additional barrels have been eased after official briefings stressing the contingent nature of the planned production boosts.

Futures rates have actually likewise gone back to the exact same level as before the production boosts were announced, with the front-month contract closing at $85 per barrel on June 18 compared to $84 on May 28.

The big salami in positions and rates set off by the OPEC? surprise statement appeared to have actually been finished by the middle of last week.

EUROPE GAS OIL

Fund managers also acquired the equivalent of 28 million barrels of futures and choices connected to European gas oil over the seven days ending on June 18, a record for the last years.

The net position doubled to 60 million barrels (67th. percentile) from 31 million barrels (36th percentile) the week. before.

The unexpected bullishness most likely describes why product trader. Trafigura has packed gas oil in the Persian Gulf onto a really. big crude carrier (VLCC) to bring it west to Europe.

The shipment marks the very first VLCC to move diesel wholesale. from the Middle East to the West in almost a year, data from. Kpler program ( Trafigura charters supertanker to load gasoil from. Mideast, , June 24).

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Portfolio supervisors continued to increase their bullish. position in U.S. gas however at a slower rate than in recent weeks. as stocks showed stubbornly high and the cost rally ran. out of momentum.

Hedge funds and other cash supervisors bought the. equivalent of 47 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the two primary. futures and choices contracts connected to the cost of gas at. Henry Center in Louisiana.

Funds have actually increased their position in 14 of the most recent. 17 weeks by a total of 2,845 bcf considering that February 20, however last. week's increase was one of the smaller increments.

The resulting net long position of 1,170 bcf (58th. percentile for all weeks since 2010) on June 18 was up from a. net short of 1,675 bcf in the middle of February (3rd. percentile).

Working gas inventories were 592 bcf above the previous. ten-year seasonal average on June 14 below a surplus of 664. bcf on March 15.

In percentage terms, inventories were 24% above the ten-year. seasonal average below a surplus of 40% some 13 weeks. earlier.

But stocks were still 1.47 basic variances higher than. average and on that procedure the surplus had not narrowed at all.

Persistently high inventories have begun to evaluate investors'. faith in a fast reversion to normal after major gas producers. revealed cuts to drilling programmes in February.

Related columns:

- Oil funds temper bearishness after OPEC? peace of mind( June. 17, 2024)

- OPEC? surprise set off record hedge fund oil sales (June. 10, 2024)

- OPEC? switches strategy to safeguard market share( June 4,. 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)