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Oil prices increase after recent US-Iran strikes and Houthi blockade, FOREX Dollar advances
The?U.S. The dollar rose on Tuesday, and was set to gain for a fourth consecutive session as the latest attacks in the Middle East drove oil prices higher and raised concerns about persistent inflation. After 'threats' from Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis two oil tankers transporting Saudi crude to Asia reversed their course in the Red Sea. A widening Middle East war has disrupted the'shipping' through two of the most important energy chokepoints. U.S. Military said Monday that they had completed their latest round of Iran strikes, marking the 10th night in a row of attacks. U.S. crude climbed 2.09% to $84.97 per barrel. Brent rose to $90.90 a barrel, up 1.88 % on the day, after reaching $91.99 - its highest level since June 11. The optimism that a lasting peace agreement could be reached between Iran and the U.S. helped to spark a decline in crude prices at the beginning of May. Recent subdued U.S. data on inflation also cooled expectations for a rate increase by its policy meeting next week. Oil prices have fallen in recent days due to tensions in the Middle East. Several Fed officials have expressed concern about inflation, including Kevin Warsh. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, rose by 0.17%, to 101.16. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.11%, to $1.1402. The dollar was set to record its longest daily gain streak since mid-May. Erik Bregar is the director of FX risk management and precious metals at Silver Gold Bull, Toronto. "The Fed is hawkish. I don't believe the marketplace fully understands that yet. And the longer this conflict continues in the Middle East the greater the risk of the Fed sounding more hawkish." Even though the conflict continues, diplomatic efforts to find a solution continue. On Monday, a senior Iranian official said that Tehran received a mediator's proposal for a 10-day truce. U.S. president Donald Trump warned that there would be consequences if Yemen's Houthi movement, which is aligned with Iran, follows through on their threat to impose an economic blockade in the Red Sea. CME FedWatch reports that expectations for the Fed to raise rates by at least 25 basis point at its next meeting have risen to 21,9%. This is up from 11% the previous week, but still well below the 38.5% of a month earlier. Markets are pricing a 68.2% hike for the September meeting. The Canadian dollar fell 0.27% against the greenback, to C$1.411, from the one-month high reached on Monday. This was after the U.S. imposed new tariffs of 50% on many Canadian products, in response to Ottawa’s “discriminatory” treatment of American cars, alcohol, and dairy products. BURNHAM GOVERNMENT BEGINS WITH POUND FALLING Sterling?declined 0.39%, to $1.3376. This was its fourth consecutive session of declines as investors weighed up the prospect of increased government spending, and how John Healey, the new finance minister, will?finance this. Andy Burnham, Britain's 7th?prime Minister in the last decade, was sworn in as Prime Minister on Monday. He reiterated his commitment of sticking to fiscal rules set by previous governments. John Healey was named the new Finance Minister. He is the former Defence Secretary. The data on the labor market showed that Britain's job market appeared to have stabilised at low levels. Official data showed wage growth and unemployment were stable in the three-month period to May, and payrolled employment was little changed in June despite recent political turmoil. Jack Meaning, UK Chief Economist at Barclays said in a note that the data today point to a labor market with low wage pressure. However, it is not deteriorating significantly at this time. The focus will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, which is due to take place later this week. The economists polled expect the central to keep?interest rates stable this time but will still raise them at least one more time later in the year. The Japanese yen fell 0.41% to 163.14 dollars, the lowest level since December 1986. Traders continue to be on the lookout for any signs of government intervention.
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Gold profits on the hope of a de-escalation of Middle East conflict
Gold rose more than 1%?Tuesday? on hopes of a diplomatic break between the U.S. Spot gold rose 1.6% by 2:00 pm EDT (1800 GMT) to $4,068.29 an ounce, while U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery settled at $4,076.40, a?1.5% increase. Edward Meir, Marex analyst, said that commodities were higher on the expectation of a possible cease-fire being negotiated in the Middle East. He added that technical buying is likely to continue in the short term. Prices are also expected to remain range-bound. On Monday, a senior Iranian official said that Tehran received a mediator's proposal for a 10-day truce in an effort to salvage the interim agreement. The increased oil prices caused by the Gulf supply disruptions are putting pressure on gold prices, as they fuel inflation fears and increase bets for higher interest rates. Gold is often viewed as a hedge against inflation. However, the high interest rate increases the cost of owning the metal. Investors are now awaiting?the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks?following a two-day meeting of the central bank next week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate increase?in September. The psychologically important $4,000?mark seems to be holding on the gold markets... Commerzbank stated that interest rate concerns are likely to slow down a stronger recovery in the U.S. Silver spot rose by 4.1%, to 58.72 dollars per ounce. Platinum gained 1.9%, at $1.623.63, and palladium jumped 2.4%, at $1.282.25 (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Sahal Muhammad and Jonathan Ananda.)
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Oil reaches 5-week high; shares of chipmakers gain.
The Nasdaq, chipmaker shares and major stock indexes all rose on Tuesday amid the rising tensions over the Iran conflict. Oil prices also reached a five-week high. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields hit a two-month peak as traders pondered whether the new spike in oil prices would affect consumer prices, and increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Two oil tankers transporting Saudi crude from the Red Sea to Asia have reversed their course after being threatened by Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis. U.S. Crude?rose by 2.32%, to $85.16, and Brent rose by 2.08% to $91.08 a barrel. Bruce Zaro of Granite Wealth Management, Plymouth, Massachusetts said that investors aren't necessarily expecting the war to end any time soon, but they may think its impact on oil prices is overdone. Investors also awaited corporate earnings, as Alphabet, Intel and other companies were due to report. Market watchers are interested to see if the AI trade can continue to grow, especially with high profit expectations for the second quarter. Zaro stated that earnings are "really key" to how the market will perform in the short-term. The semiconductor index was up over 5%. The index closed Friday at a level that was more than 20 percent below the record high set in late June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 395.97 or 0.76% to 52,235.23. The S&P 500 gained 63.60 or 0.85% to 7,506.88. And the Nasdaq Composite advanced by 342.90 or 1.34% to 25,850.97. European stocks are up, and technology and mining shares have gained. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index was up by 0.56%. MSCI's global stock index rose by 11.29 points or 1.02% to 1,116.79. The yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased by 3.62 basis points to 4.634%, and then reached 4.640%. This is the highest level since May 20. Money markets indicate that traders are pricing at least one rate hike by the Fed this year. The trade was also in focus. The Canadian dollar fell 0.15% against the greenback, to C$1.409, as the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods in response to Ottawa's?discriminatory?treatment of American cars, alcohol, and dairy products. U.S. trade negotiators and Mexican counterparts will hold a third round bilateral talks in order to?move forward with the revision of the North American trade agreement. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.17% at 101.12 while the euro fell 0.05% to $1.1408.
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Italy will use EU budget leeway in 2027-2028 to fund energy relief measures
Italy plans to use the so-called "escape clause" of the European Union budget rules in order to fund measures that will reduce energy costs by 2027 and 2028. Meloni met with senior coalition members and there was a "broad consensus" about a proposal that would use EU flexibility to help families, businesses and individuals cope with the rising cost of energy over the next 2 years. In March 2025, following Russia's invasion in Ukraine, the European Commission decided that all EU members could increase their defence spending up to 1.5% of GDP each year for four years until 2028. Italy was a strong advocate for the Commission to give EU governments fiscal flexibility to cushion the impact of higher energy costs. Last month, as a compromise, it was decided that EU countries could use 0.3% GDP (out of 1.5% GDP extra allowed for defense) to fund investments?that help transition fossil fuels into?green energy. Meloni's plan to invoke the clause one year before the 2027 general elections suggests that 'Italy' is prepared to abandon efforts to reduce its budget deficit to below the 3% GDP threshold and to exit the EU’s ongoing excessive deficit procedure. According to the 'latest multi-year budget plan', Italy was targeting a ratio of deficit-to GDP of 2.9% in 2019 and 2.8% by 2027. (Reporting and editing by Gianluca Smeraro, Keith Weir and Giuseppe Fonte)
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Gold profits on the hope of a de-escalation of Middle East conflict
Gold prices rose by?more? than 1% on Tuesday, amid hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. This could lower energy costs and calm expectations about a Federal Reserve that is hawkish. Spot gold rose 1.7%, to $4.077.09 an ounce, by 11:20 am EDT (1520 GMT), whereas U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose?1.6%, to $4.080.20. Edward Meir, Marex analyst, said that commodities were higher on the expectation of a possible cease-fire being negotiated in the Middle East. He added that technical buying is also a factor in gold's price rise after it broke above the short-term downward trend in place since 6 July. Prices are expected to remain range-bound for the near future. On?Monday, a senior Iranian official said that Tehran received a mediator's proposal for a 10-day truce in an effort to salvage the interim agreement. The increased oil prices caused by the Gulf supply disruptions are weighing down on gold prices, as they fuel inflation fears and increase bets for higher interest rates. Gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation. However, the high interest rate increases the cost of owning the metal. Investors are now waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve to announce its interest rate decision, and Kevin Warsh's remarks following the central bank's two day policy meeting next Monday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 68% probability of a rate hike in September. The psychologically significant $4,000 gold mark is holding strong on the market. Interest rate concerns in the U.S. Interest rate concerns in the?U.S. (Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed) (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Sahal Muhammad)
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Norwegian Olympic champion Tufte dies at 50
The Norwegian family of Olympic rowing champ Olaf Tufte announced on Tuesday that he had died at age 50. Tufte won two gold medals, one silver and one bronze in his seven-year Olympic career from Atlanta in 1996 until Tokyo in 2021. In Athens, he won gold in the single sculls and four years later again in Beijing. At the Tokyo Games he was 45 years old and finished ninth in the quadruple-sculls. He won two golds and one silver at the World Championships. According to Norwegian media, he was found unconscious on his family farm Monday. The statement stated that "Medical personnel arrived quickly at the scene, and life-saving?first aid was initiated before Tufte?was?airlifted?to hospital for further treatment." "There were no witnesses and no suspicions of an accident at work." (Reporting from Tommy Lund, Gdansk; editing by Pritha Sakar)
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China shortages are eroding copper inventories, pushing the price of copper to a one-month record.
The price of copper hit its?highest level in over a month Tuesday. This was largely due to a firm demand from the top consumer China, and a sharp drop in inventories. Benchmark three-month?copper?on London Metal Exchange rose?1.5%?to $13,826.50 per metric ton at 1405 GMT. This was its highest level since June 15 A tightening Chinese economy is driving copper prices higher. Stocks are dropping, import premiums have risen and physical demand is stronger than expected despite seasonal slowdown, said ING 'commodities analyst EwaManthey. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract rose 1.6%, to 105460?yuan (15,589.29 dollars) per ton. Premium paid to purchase copper on the spot market over SHFE prices Copper stocks in?SHFE-monitored warehouses rose to?435 Yuan per ton from 0 yuan last week, the highest level since May of last year. Stocks of copper in warehouses monitored by the?SHFE Copper in LME-registered storage has fallen by 82% since the beginning of May The LME has fallen by?28% over the same time period. A large amount of LME material is now being shipped to the United States. U.S. Comex futures have outperformed LME by gaining 2.7%, to $6.52 a lb. This is the highest price since June 17 and brings the Comex premium to $529 a tonne over LME. Tariff anxiety is a boost to Comex. Manthey said that the market is pricing in more and more of the risk associated with U.S. Import restrictions. The U.S. Commerce Department had to complete a review on the copper market before June 30, but President Donald Trump has not yet made a decision about tariffs. Investors' increased risk appetite also helped industrial metals, as global stocks recovered. LME aluminium rose 0.7% to $3.161 per ton, as the market digested a lower global primary production in June and an adjustment of tariffs on the imports of the metal to the United States. LME zinc increased 0.6% to $3,540 per ton. Lead edged up by 0.1% to $1.881. Nickel was up 0.8% to $17,060. Tin jumped 1.9% to $53,900.
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South Korea's efforts to expand the AI chip hub outside Seoul will be tested by power and water requirements
South Korea wants to build a new semiconductor hub in the southwest of its country within four years. However, local opposition due to its massive water and power needs will be one of its greatest obstacles. Honam semiconductor industrial complex, which is estimated to be worth at least 800 trillion won (540 billion dollars), is central to President Lee Jae Myung’s efforts to extend the AI chip boom outside the prosperous Seoul metropolitan region. Companies involved in the project like Samsung Electronics, however, will have to find new sources of energy to power it, with the goal of establishing it by the time Lee finishes his term in 2030. Analysts say that the power demand of the four planned chips fabrication plants could be 70% to 80% more than the current annual consumption of electricity in the southwestern regions Gwangju, North Jeolla, and South Jeolla. Local residents have said they are against plans to build new nuclear reactors or transmission lines, citing the flaws of previous energy infrastructure that they claim failed to win their approval. Residents claim they were not also consulted on plans to raise an existing dam in order to supply water to the project. Neal?Won is the principal analyst for S&P Global Energy. He said, "A large amount of power demand has been added to a region which had previously very little." Experts say that it will be difficult to operate the complex in its full capacity by 2030 without accelerated infrastructure growth. South Korea's Energy Ministry said that the southwest region has enough power to meet?local demands. If new chip fabs were located in the area, the majority of electricity would be produced locally, eliminating the need for long-distance transmission cables. It said that it would work with local governments to build the power infrastructure before fab operations, and improve public acceptability. This includes placing underground lines in densely-populated areas. Kim Sung-whan, the Energy Minister, has said that they could also consider building small modular reactors or new nuclear reactors. BOTTLENECKS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE The chip cluster project in Yongin near Seoul is a cautionary tale. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and other chip manufacturers have been working to expand their manufacturing capacity in the region. However, projects have faced delays due power and water problems. Mayor Lee Sang Il said SK Hynix’s first Yongin fabs were supposed to receive 265,000 metric tonnes of water a daily from a dam in another city. But opposition from the residents delayed the process for months. And supplies of power and water from other regions may face similar objections. He said that the responsibility for calming opposing voices and resolving differences rests with the central government. The government plans to assist Samsung and SK HYnix?to accelerate construction in Yongin. Roh Byeong Nam, a farmer in Yeonggwang County, southwest Korea, and co-chairman of the local anti-nuclear alliance, stated that residents would challenge any expansion or?expansion nuclear reactors if necessary through litigation. Roh stated that "to now talk about building new reactors on top of extending their lifespan is nothing less than declaring Yeonggwang as a nuclear test ground and ultimately a permanent?nuclear-waste site." Water supply is also complex. The environment ministry estimates that the cluster requires about 650,000 metric tonnes?of water per day. This is more than Gwangju’s daily residential water consumption. The developers hope to avoid building a large new dam by utilizing reclaimed water and five dam systems. They also plan to raise one of these systems - Dongbok Dam, to ensure an additional 250,000 tons per day. Kim Kwang Jin, the head of a group of dam-residents near Dongbok said that residents wanted to be consulted. Kim stated that the construction of a dam would be similar. He estimated that 1,500-1,600 households may be affected directly or indirectly. "They announced this unilaterally, without considering the resident's acceptance." The ministry of energy said that the dam-raising alternative would minimize environmental damage and relocation when compared to constructing a brand new dam. It will also continue discussions with Gwangju residents and the local government in order to avoid delays due either infrastructure or opposition.
New York City and US states sue EPA over climate regulation regarding hydrofluorocarbons
On Tuesday, the Trump administration was sued by 18 'Democratic-led States, Washington D.C., and New York City, over a federal?rule? they say will harm climate change by giving companies a longer time to stop using hydrofluorocarbons as dangerous chemicals in commercial refrigeration equipment.
The petition filed in the federal appeals courts of Washington, D.C., challenges a decision by the Environmental Protection Agency to delay deadlines for companies that want to replace hydrofluorocarbons, also known as HFCs, with climate-friendly refrigerants.
The rule, according to opponents, would increase harmful greenhouse gas emission?and undo a part of the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act that called for a 85% reduction in the HFCs before 2036.
In December 2020, President Donald Trump signed this law less than a month before the end of his first White House tenure. The "Phasedown?of Hydrofluorocarbons' rule is set to go into effect on July 27, 2019.
In a press release, the EPA stated that it has a long-standing policy of not commenting on pending litigation. The petition also names EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin. The Trump administration has'scaled back' a number of environmental initiatives and standards. This includes reducing the support for clean energy, and repealing a scientific finding from the Obama administration that climate change is a threat to public health.
HFCs can be found in many products, including air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, large supermarkets, and equipment for manufacturing semiconductors.
A RULE IS SAID TO BECOME A THREATEN TO CLIMATE PROGRESS
States stated that one provision in the EPA rule allows supermarkets, convenience shops and bakeries to continue using remote condensing system whose refrigerants have more than nine-times the global warming potential previously allowed.
In a webcast announcing the lawsuit, California Attorney General Rob Bonta stated that "the EPA's rule would undo our progress and penalize businesses that?have complied" with the law.
Bonta accused Trump of "again putting the profit of the industry over the health of the American people and our future."
The petition is led by the attorneys general from California, Massachusetts and Washington state.
Attorneys general from Colorado, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin, Washington, D.C., and New York City also joined them.
The EPA stated in a regulatory filing that the rule would help it achieve its goal of reducing the cost-of-living for American families and not forcing companies to use technology which increases the price of food and semiconductors.
The deregulation drive would also further Trump's executive order of January 31, 2025, which calls for "unleashing the prosperity through deregulation." Jonathan Stempel, New York reporter
(source: Reuters)