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US consumer sentiment improved in July; renewed Middle East conflict is a downside risk
U.S. consumer confidence increased to a?high of five months in July. However, the 'improvement' is only temporary because the renewed conflict in?the Middle East has raised gasoline prices. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers reported on Friday that its Consumer Sentiment Index had risen to 54.4 in this month. This is the highest reading since last February. It was 49.5 at the end of June. The economists surveyed by? The economists polled by? The survey was conducted between June 23 and July 13 with over?70% completed interviews before the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire last week which drove oil prices up to a?month high. In response, gasoline?prices are up. Joanne Hsu is the director of Surveys of Consumers. She said that the rise in consumer sentiment this month was widespread, affecting all groups, regardless of age, income, wealth or political party. However, as?prices remain frustratingly high, the consumer's attitude towards the economy is not ebullient; sentiment has fallen 12% since a year ago. The upward trend in sentiment may be difficult to maintain if the recent drop in gas prices continues. In June, the survey's measure of consumer expectations for inflation in the next year was 4.6%. This month it is 4.2%. Consumers' expectations of inflation over the next five-year period remained at 3.3%. This week, government data showed that consumer inflation had moderated in June. (Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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Gold to experience its biggest weekly decline in six weeks on inflation and rate hike worries
Gold was stable on Friday, but on course to suffer its largest weekly loss in six years as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran drove up energy prices, fueling inflation fears, and reinforcing expectation of U.S. rate hikes. By 0932 am EDT (1332 GMT), spot gold was unchanged, at $3.970.35 an ounce. It is still near its lowest price since July 1. Prices have fallen by more than 3% for the entire week. U.S. Gold Futures?for August Delivery fell 0.5% to $3973.10. The U.S. Dollar rose for the second consecutive session, increasing the price of bullion for foreign buyers. Chris Gaffney is president of EverBank's world markets. He said that the main reasons for the gold sell-off were a stronger U.S. Dollar and increased global inflation fears. The U.S. escalated its renewed bombing campaign against Iran by hitting bridges and airports. Tehran responded by launching strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East. Brent crude oil was up by more than 14 percent in the week after the attacks. The price of gold has dropped by about 25% since U.S.-backed Iran's war began in late Feburary, due to expectations that inflation-driven war could cause interest rates to rise for longer. Gold is often seen as an inflation hedge, but higher interest rates can be detrimental to the metal. Gaffney stated that "Recent data has decreased the likelihood of a rate increase at the next FOMC Meeting, but global interest rates are continuing to rise and the recent increase in oil prices may drive the Federal Reserve into a more hawkish position?on U.S. rate policy." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 53.3% probability of an interest rate increase in the U.S. in September. Philip Jefferson, Fed vice chair, said on Thursday that he was "open" to raising interest rates if inflation did not improve in the near future. Goldman Sachs stated in a report that "gold's percentage in private portfolios is still low. Recent?geopolitical events, such as the Iranian nuclear deal and wider tensions?may increase diversification from central banks towards private investors." Silver spot fell by 0.8%, platinum was down 3.3% at $1,563.49 and palladium dropped 1.5% at $1,230.42. All three metals are headed for losses this week. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey in Bengaluru, Noel John from Bengaluru)
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As AI trade wobbles, chipmakers and other high flying stocks fall
This week, a rotation of the top winners from the recent rally gained momentum. Chip stocks fell to their'severest weekly decline for more than a month and sparked new concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven growth. Investors pulled back on AI-exposed stocks that had fueled portfolio returns for much of this year. If current levels are maintained, the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index has fallen 11% in one week. This would be its biggest drop since March 2025. The index is down almost 24% since its all-time June high. This would confirm that it has been in bear market. Toni Meadows is the head of investment for BRI Wealth Management. She said, "The pullback reflects profit taking and increasing scrutiny of AI Capex Sustainability." "Valuations in semi-conductor stock had priced near-perfect supply, which was always going leave stocks vulnerable at some point during what has been an explosive rise." As of Friday's early trading, the chip index had risen nearly 62% this year. Nvidia shares fell by 3% while Qualcomm and Broadcom each lost 2%. Micron and SanDisk, two of the most popular memory chip makers, each lost about 3%. SpaceX dropped 4% after a 'last-second abort' of Starship’s 13th test flight. This was after the IPO price fell below $135 earlier this week. SK Hynix shares listed in the U.S. fell 2.7%, and were trading at or near their initial offering price. Stock has dropped more than 9% in the last week. The sharp turn around this month has been attributed to several factors by analysts. Moonshot, a Chinese AI startup, unveiled Kimi K3, which it described as the world's biggest open-weight AI model. This has rekindled investor scrutiny over the pace at which U.S. technology companies can expect to see returns on their AI investments. According to a report published on Thursday, Alphabet's Google has been months behind schedule in releasing Gemini 3.5 Pro, the most powerful AI model. Globally, traders have experienced a volatile July. South Korea's KOSPI Index confirmed a bear-market last week. It is still up almost 70% this year. Japan's Nikkei fell into correction territory last Friday. The tech sector in Europe is one of the biggest losers for this week, despite having achieved its largest quarterly increase since 2001. The S&P 500 Momentum Index, which has outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 this year by more than two to one, has pulled back 10 percent in July, compared with a 0.8% decline in the overall market. Strong predictions from Taiwan's TSMC and European semiconductor equipment manufacturer ASML failed to stop the slide. Now, the focus is on two of Wall Street’s so-called "Magnificent Seven" group. Next week, Alphabet is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings. Space stocks also fell this week after rising earlier in the year, anticipating the possible boost that the sector could receive from SpaceX’s debut. Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines fell 3% and 4.4% respectively on Friday, and are expected to lose about 20% this week. (Reporting from Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru and Shashwat Chanhan; editing by Sriraj Kalluvila).
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Netflix falls as investors fear a slowing of growth and less data on viewership
Netflix shares fell more than 10% Friday after the company forecasted another quarter of lower revenue gains, and reduced viewership data. This fueled fears that Netflix's industry-beating growth may have peaked. If losses continue, the stock will lose $35 billion of Netflix's $313 billion market value. The streaming giant has reduced the frequency of the viewing-hours reports to just once a month from twice a week starting in 2027. This follows the scrapping last year of subscriber counts. Investors are left in the dark, as the company faces increased competition from both traditional media and YouTube. Ben Barringer is the head of technology at Quilter Cheviot. He said that removing data points from investors will result in a market reaction if results aren't up to par. Netflix's unsuccessful pursuit of Warner Bros?earlier in the year has also raised questions about its next growth phase amid?slow ad supported streaming?tier, which it has long hailed as a major growth driver. Since its all-time high of June 2025, the stock has fallen by 44%. This includes a fall of over 20% just this year. Analysts said that after a strong 2025 content slate that included its hit scifi series, "Stranger Things", and South Korean drama, "Squid Games", the company has a weaker line-up of content this year which could impact growth. Mike Proulx, Forrester's research director, said that pulling back engagement reporting just as engagement is being highlighted gives off the impression of a 'nothing here' feeling. Netflix's ability to keep?subscribers engaged is crucial, as the company has traded at a higher premium than other media companies with a smaller subscriber base. Netflix is valued at nearly 20 times its expected earnings for the next year, compared to 13.5 times Walt Disney, and 6.6 for Comcast. This shows the premium that investors give the streaming giant. Netflix's quarterly revenue and earnings were below Wall Street expectations, but at least 18 analysts still lowered their price targets. The median price target is still about 40% higher than Thursday's closing prices.
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Sources say that Pakistan and Kuwait are discussing an expanded defence pact.
Five sources familiar with the talks claim that Pakistan is negotiating a broader?defence agreement with Kuwait, in exchange for energy investment and cooperation. All sources agreed that the talks are still in a 'early stage' and could be complicated by the heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, according to one source. According to a report on Thursday, there are growing concerns in Islamabad about the possibility that the mutual defence agreement signed with Saudi Arabia last year could drag Pakistan into a war between Iran and the United States. Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country, told Iran that it would consider attacks against Saudi Arabia as an attack on itself after the Iran-aligned Houthi group launched an assault on Saudi Arabia Monday. A defence deal with Kuwait would raise questions regarding Pakistan's future role in mediating between the U.S.A. and Iran. Kuwait and Pakistan have had a limited defence agreement since 2023 for joint training exercises. A Pakistani official said that the country is now looking for a similar show of force from Islamabad, which would include "thousands" of Pakistani soldiers on the ground as well as fighter jets and drones. Pakistan may not be willing to go that far given the fact that its agreement with Saudi Arabia is a result of decades-old alliances with Riyadh. A Pakistani official who was privy to the discussions said that "Kuwait has a wish list with everything on it." "But I want to be clear: we are not and cannot consider a combat troop deployment at this stage." Middle Eastern sources confirmed that Kuwait and Pakistan have been in discussions, including on?defence acquisition, but it is "not clear" if this would amount to a pact. I spoke with four Pakistani and one Middle Eastern sources, but none were authorised to give an interview on record. Kuwait's Information Ministry and Pakistan's Military Media Wing did not respond to comments. Search for Alternatives to Defence In the last year, Pakistan and Gulf States have seen benefits in striking new regional defense pacts. Pakistan has a strong military and manufactures its own fighter planes. It is a potential alternative to U.S. security for Gulf States, who are becoming more suspicious of its reliability as an ally. A source familiar with Kuwaiti security plans said that Pakistan was seen as a good bet in Kuwait. The source explained that "they are already with the Saudis and have a history of defence development. They are Muslim Sunni and have a good relation with the Americans so it is not as sensitive as other options." Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia are preparing a draft for a mutual defense pact that is separate from the one Islamabad already has with Saudi Arabia. Bahrain, according to a source, is also interested in a pact similar to this one. Jordan, meanwhile, has expressed an interest in a deal involving weapons and training. BARRES FOR BOOTS Pakistan has seen defence deals with its neighbours as a means to bolster investments that the country desperately needs. Islamabad wants to cooperate on energy security as part of any possible deal with Kuwait. This is part of an effort by Pakistan's Energy Ministry to increase its oil and fuel reserve. Kuwait is exploring a bonded fuel storage with Pakistan that would build on an existing government-to-government diesel supply deal between the two ?countries, a Pakistani source aware of the talks said. Two sources said that such offers could still be attractive enough for Pakistan's leaders to pursue a bigger?defence agreement. They added that the negotiations would pick up speed as soon as tensions between the U.S. and Iran subside. Analysts warned that this could be wishful thinking. Muhammad Faisal is a South Asia specialist at the University of Technology, Sydney. He said that Pakistan must be aware of the dangers of an over-commitment. Reporting by Mubasher Bakhari in Islamabad and Ariba Shehid in Karachi; Timour Azhari and Timothy Heritage in Riyadh, and Asif Shazad in Islamabad.
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The ROI-LME wanted to buy more lead. Andy Home
Lead is everywhere. The London Metal Exchange's (LME) stock of battery metal increased by 58% over the course of two days this week. This was due to the warranting?of 171,175 tons in Singapore warehouses. The exchange should be happy. The exchange reduced listing fees between April 2024 to December?2025 for smaller lead producers in order to "enhance the liquidity" of its lead contract. Evidently, it's?worked. LME's lead stock has risen to nearly 500,000 tons over the past few months, with?large? tonnes sitting in off-warranty storage. Metals that are not loved have become the preferred metallic financing tool. Most of the inventory is located in Singapore and it rotates between warehouses to find better rental deals. This week’s burst in warranting activity was just the latest and largest of such rotations. Where did all this metal come? How much more metal is to come? WAREHOUSE ROULETTE LME lead stocks are characterized by large and concentrated bursts that warrant action. This has been going on for several months. The trade in question is more about arbitrage in warehousing than it is about lead market fundamentals. The trader in this instance, Trafigura, placed a large quantity of metal on the LME warrant and agreed with the warehouse operator to split the future rental fees. The new owner is likely to cancel the warrants quickly to avoid the rental agreement and move the metal to another warehouse company. Stock?churn used to be a key feature of the LME Aluminium market. However, inventory has now dropped below 400,000 tons including non-warranty stocks. The lead is now the game. Some of the "stocks" that arrived this week were simply moved from off-warrant stock. Singapore's stocks fell by 34.256 tons when the first 83.225-ton metal tranche was warranted on Monday. There are still 142,598 tonnes of metal that could be warrantable ahead of the second delivery on Tuesday. INDIAN EXPORTS SURGE At the end of June, Indian-made lead represented 76% of all LME inventories on warrant. In January 2023, there was no Indian metal in the LME system. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics, which collects trade statistics from official customs data, Indian exports grew from 151,000 tonnes in 2022 to 482,000 ton?last year. Singapore is a popular destination even though it's not a major hub for lead-acid battery manufacturing, which is the primary application of the metal. Since the beginning of 2023, Singapore has received more than 400,000 tons. In November 2025 they reached a peak of 31,000 tons, which was almost half the total refined lead exported by India. There were three lead brands registered at the LME until last year. Two of them were produced by Hindustan Zinc, a large mine-to refinery primary producer. The third was by Jain Resource Recycling, a secondary producer. Last year, five more brands with a combined production capacity of 195,000 tonnes were added as part of LME's "drive" to encourage smaller secondary lead producers. Gravita India has become the ninth Indian leading brand to achieve LME Good Delivery status. Change of flow As more Indian producers register with the exchange, it is likely that there will be a greater flow of lead to LME storage in Singapore. India's trading patterns have changed this year. According to the WBMS, exports to Singapore in April were only 1,555 tons, which was the lowest monthly total in a whole year. China was the main destination for April's exports, with 8,685 tonnes accounting for 34%. It is a very new market for Indian Metal. China imported very little refined lead last year, and only took 500 tons of it from India. WBMS data shows that imports of mushrooms from India reached 57,000 tons during the first five months this year. This brings the total to 132,000 tonnes, the highest number since 2009. It is unclear why China suddenly requires so much lead, but the fact that it does means that less Indian metal will be heading to LME Singapore warehouses. This still leaves Singapore with a large amount of metal that is being sold through warehouse deals. This week, the sudden 'appearance' of so much?lead sent LME 3-month metals tumbling to a 15-month-low of $1840 per ton. The chances of a sustained economic recovery are dependent?on the length of time China diverts Indian metal flows from LME Singapore warehouses. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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UN warns that transporting dead bodies in Congo could spread Ebola
U.N. migration agency warned on Friday that transporting Ebola victims’ bodies between different areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), often to be buried by their families, could spread the virus. As of July 14, more than 2,000 Ebola deaths and 700 cases have been reported in Congo and Uganda, and two-thirds occurred outside of clinics or hospitals. The International Organization for Migration stated that this makes it difficult to control burials. This often fatal virus spreads by direct contact with the bodily fluids of infected animals or people. Symptoms include high fever, vomiting, internal bleeding, and other symptoms. The Bundibugyo virus strain is responsible for this epidemic. Ebola is highly contagious even after death, so funeral practices are a crucial component in outbreak control. Andrew Mbala, IOM, said: "If we do not manage the dead bodies properly and if we do not engage the community... it means that there will be a greater spread in the community." IOM officials stated that the transportation of bodies between districts is a "special challenge" as families want to bury their relatives in their own communities. Mbala said that there have been many crossings of bodies in the country. 105 corpses were found during the IOM Ebola surveillance at the points of entry or crossings to different health control zones in the country. IOM warns that if bodies are not handled properly, they could spread the virus to new areas. IOM said that the bodies were sent to be sampled and investigated, then given to a team for a dignified and safe burial. Mbala mentioned a case where a corpse was moved from an area to another and contributed to infections in the newly affected Tshopo Province. IOM Regional Director Frantz celestin stated that the outbreak had grown by 70% in two weeks. On average, more than forty new cases were reported every day. Officials from the U.N. agency said that community resistance hinders efforts to ensure safe burials. The teams responsible for handling the bodies and burying them have been met with opposition and in some cases attacks. Mbala stated that "we have seen in the community an element of resistance" during the 'burials. World Health Organization officials stated that?four out of five identified contacts of those with Ebola were being monitored now, but one of the five cannot be tracked, usually because of insecurity or distrust in communities preventing health workers from reaching these people. (Reporting by Olivia Le Poidevin, Editing by Miranda Murray, Alexandra Hudson)
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Botswana: Anglo chooses De Beers as buyer and weighs options to "optimal structure".
Anglo American chose a preferred bidder for its De Beers stake, and Botswana is weighing up whether to exercise its first refusal right on its own or with Anglo American's selected bidder. Anglo sold De Beers in May 2024, as part of an overall restructuring that was prompted by the 'falling diamond prices' and the growing popularity for synthetic diamonds. Private buyers and the government of Botswana (which already owns 15%) have shown interest in this business. Moeti Mohwasa, Botswana’s Minister of State President, Defence and Security, told lawmakers that Anglo American had conducted a competitive bid process with three shortlisted bidders. The Global Diamond Consortium was the preferred bidder. Mohwasa said that the proposal of including Angola Namibia in the consortium was welcomed. He did not reveal the consortium partners but stated that it was important to find an experienced operator who would be backed up by a long-term, stable ownership structure, and a credible turnaround plan. An Anglo American spokesperson said that the company is progressing with the sale and will provide updates when appropriate. Sources have previously stated that only two consortia are still in the running to own stakes in De Beers. This is down from six groups in 2025. Two groups are in the running for De Beers stakes, down from six in 2025. Mohwasa stated that Botswana had "complete freedom" to either proceed with the preferred bidder in partnership or to exercise their preemption rights by themselves or in conjunction with a third-party. He added that Botswana is currently working with its financial advisers to assess the optimal deal structure. Mohwasa stated that the sale transaction is likely to conclude by the end of the 2026 quarter, subject to a number of conditions, such as the Botswana Government's approval.
Europe is still ravaged by wildfires, storms and droughts even though the heatwave has receded
F irefighters, backed by 30 planes, struggled to contain a fire in northeastern Spain that has destroyed an area as large as San Francisco. The wildfire forced the evacuation of over 1,000 people. Recent heatwaves have left the vegetation tinder dry across most of Europe. The recent heatwaves in Europe have caused temperatures to reach unprecedented levels, which scientists attribute to climate change. They are also causing crop damage, wildfires and thousands of deaths.
According to Climate Monitor, on Friday the average high temperature across Western Europe was predicted to be 28.5 degrees Celsius (81.5 degree Fahrenheit), a 4.2 C higher than the normal high temperature for July 17 between 1961-1990.
MeteoFrance reports that a drought in France has been worsening day by day since May's end, while the heatwave continues to?decline. By the weekend, high temperatures are expected to be confined mainly to the southeast. MeteoFrance warned that a gas-fired plant in southern France could be forced to shut down due to high temperatures?in Mediterranean Sea, which limited the access to cooling waters. This would add further pressure to an energy system already experiencing reduced nuclear output because of warmer river water.
The Rhine River in Germany has been flooded, causing transport costs to rise. Rain has helped raise the levels.
Storms add to the woes As the heat receded and violent storms began in some areas, two people in central and eastern France, and one in Germany’s southern state Baden-Wuerttemberg, died as a result from falling trees or lightning strikes.
The "supercell" storm brought hailstones up to 2 inches and?5 centimeters (?5 cm) in size. Drivers sought shelter from the hail under an?autobahn bridge near Stuttgart. Residents were warned to expect more severe weather Friday.
Firefighters in northeast Germany were hoping that rain would help put out a wildfire burning at the Mueritz national park. The fire has been burning there for almost a week. Their efforts had been hindered because of unexploded ammunition found at an old military training facility.
SPAIN BURNING
The Spanish weather agency AEMET has warned that temperatures will start to rise again on Saturday. Highs could reach 42-44 C next week in some parts of Andalusia. Forecasters warned that the hot, dry air coming from North Africa could cause extreme wildfires in many parts of Spain.
The fire near Ores, in northeastern Aragon, grew overnight to over 12,000 hectares. 300 emergency responders were deployed and helicopters operated in continuous rotations. At times up to five aircraft loaded water at once. Maria Pilar Arregui, an evacuee, said outside the temporary shelter in Ejea de los Caballeros, that "the houses and people have been saved but everything else is in flames." Wildfires were also burning in the provinces of Guadalajara and Madrid, with around 1,500 acres of land affected. A summer camp had been evacuated for safety reasons. One of Spain's most deadly wildfires, which occurred in Almeria, southern province, killed at least thirteen people. Most of them were foreigners.
Authorities in Greece's Athens metropolitan area have been on high alert due to wildfire risk. Drones with thermal cameras are patrolling forests, and water cannons are stationed at campsites.
EXCESS DEADLINES The World Health Organization warned earlier this month that Europe would face "more dangerous weeks" in the future due to new heatwaves developing over the Atlantic. Scientists who monitor so-called excess death claims that thousands more deaths were recorded than usual during the heatwave which swept Europe and Britain in June.
"Nearly 10,000 excess deaths, and summer is still not over," said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge of the WHO Regional Director for Europe. He criticized governments for "still considering heat as a weather emergency rather than a public health emergency", in spite of existing tools and WHO guidelines to prevent many of these deaths.
(source: Reuters)