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The sickly trees that are destroying Europe's climate goals

The European Union's governments decided to lower their 2040 emission-cutting target this week due to concerns about Europe's degraded forests. EU countries endorsed a Wednesday target to reduce their net greenhouse gas emission by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040 - an aim designed to keep them in line with the EU's legally binding commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2020. The agreement also included flexibility in various sectors. The 2040 goal could be reduced in the future if Europe's peat bogs, grasslands and forests are unable to store and absorb millions of tons carbon dioxide as compensation for industrial pollution. In recent months, many governments, from Sweden to France, warned that Europe's forest are absorbing much less CO2 than they hoped. This is due to wildfires, droughts, and climate change.

The agreement is a good achievement because it takes into account the uncertainties surrounding the CO2 uptake by forests, said Sweden's Environment minister Romina Pourmokhtari.

FORESTS FALLING BELOW CO2 TARGETS

Scientists have documented that climate change leads to more heatwaves, droughts, and slowing of tree growth. This sets the stage for wildfires as well as pest infestations. This year, wildfires charred more than one million hectares in the EU. It was the largest amount of land burned ever. According to the European Environment Agency, Europe's forests, land use and CO2 absorption has decreased by almost a third over the past decade due in part to climate change, but also because of increased logging.

According to the Natural Resources Institute Finland, since 2021 forests in Finland have emitted more carbon dioxide than they have absorbed. Sweden's CO2 sink from forestry has been more than halved in the last 20 year. According to EU diplomats, Sweden and Finland backed the EU’s goal of reducing emissions by 90% and resisted attempts from other countries to further weaken this target.

Both are equally important.

In September, they warned that they would not meet the EU forest emission targets for 2030. They also said that they could face "dire" consequences on their economics if they had to reduce wood harvesting to comply. Sari Multala, Finland's climate minister, said that 14 out of 27 EU member states are not on track to meet their 2030 land use, land-use change, and forestry targets. Around 70% of Sweden, and Finland is covered by forests. Around 10% of Sweden's total exports are wood products, and Finland is almost half that amount. In Sweden, the wood industry employs around 140,000 people.

In a letter sent to EU leaders last month, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, promised to take measures to address the concerns about the 2030 LULUCF legislation. This was done to get their support for the 2040 climate target.

ACCORD PROVIDES FLEXIBILITY IN TARGETS The climate target for 2040, which was agreed upon after long-lasting negotiations in Brussels, and before the world leaders met on Thursday in Brazil at the U.N. COP30 Summit, provided a number of options to address these concerns. According to the EU agreement, one option was to introduce an emergency brake that would allow governments to reduce their 2040 climate targets if they realized forests and land-based activities were not absorption CO2 as expected. France proposed this option.

One option was to allow countries to purchase foreign carbon credits up to 5% to meet the 90% reduction goal. This could potentially reduce the domestic target by 5%.

From the automotive industry to the defense sector, industries have expressed concern that they could be liable for any shortfall in emissions if forests and wetland play a diminished role.

The final target stated that other industries would not be required to reduce emissions faster in order to meet the 2040 goal if natural eco-systems do not perform as expected.

POLITICAL CHALLENGES Ahead The Joint Research Centre of the EU has stated that climate risks in forests can be managed through a reduction in intensive logging or by planting more tree species which could enhance CO2 storage.

Sweden's Forestry Agency said that the best way to increase CO2 absorption from Sweden's forest was to reduce felling by 10%.

The Environmental Objectives Committee of Sweden, a government agency, has also recommended that forestry companies be encouraged to allow trees to grow longer and reduce the amount of tree felling.

The forestry industry is a major employer and generates thousands of jobs.

The Swedish Forest Industries Federation stated that the proposals of the government committee would result in a 5%-6% drop in production, worth 8 billion Swedish crowns (US$849.66m) and potentially cost 7,200 positions.

(source: Reuters)