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The FOREX Dollar falls as US inflation data holds off rate hike

Dollar fell on Wednesday, after data revealed that U.S. consumer prices rose to their highest level in 3 years in May. The reading, however, was in line economists' predictions, and did little to increase?the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. U.S. consumer prices rose at their fastest rate in three years, as the Iran War increased the cost of gasoline and energy products.

Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Labor Department announced on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index had increased by 4.2% over the 12-month period ending in May. This is the biggest gain since April 20,23. The economists polled had predicted the CPI to increase 4.2% on an annual basis.

Karl Schamotta is the chief market strategist for Corpay, a Toronto-based company. He said that the Federal Reserve has not yet been able to use the soaring prices of energy in its core measures.

The dollar index (which measures the U.S. dollar against six other currencies) was down 0.1% at 99.875, but still not far off the two-month-high of 100.214 that was reached on Monday.

Schamotta stated that traders are preparing for a neutral statement from officials at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, and have modestly reduced expectations of a rate increase by year's end.

The traders of short-term U.S. rates have backed away from betting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as early as September. However, they remain confident that an increase in rate is coming by October. According to a large majority of economists polled, the Fed will keep its key rate unchanged for the remainder of 2026.

Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy and research for wealth management firm Glenmede, stated in a report that "after three months of high energy costs, there has been no meaningful pass-through" to core goods. This is the most important data in the report today that shows the Iran shock has not spread to a generalized episode of inflation.

Even so, traders were on edge.

U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Wednesday the United States would attack Iran "very strongly" if a peace deal was not reached. He also revealed that the U.S. Military secretly escorted vessels carrying more than 100,000,000 barrels of crude oil out of Strait of Hormuz to moderate global oil prices.

The Yen remains in focus

A Bank of Japan rate increase at its policy meeting on June 16 is almost completely?priced-in, which means that it will not trigger a significant turnaround in the yen's weakness even if it occurs.

Tony Sycamore said that a hawkish comment from Governor (Kazuo Ueda) would be needed to signal the BOJ's next hike could move from December to September – with the?possibility a third increase before the end of the year," Tony Sycamore wrote in a note. Without that, or something similar the Ministry of Finance will likely have to use its chequebook again to defend the currency. The Japanese yen remained steady at 160.475 against the dollar. It continues to hover near the 160 level, which is widely considered a "line in the sand" for official intervention. According to a poll of economists, the BOJ is likely to raise its key rate in this month's quarter and again next year. This will bring borrowing costs up to 1.25% at the end of the calendar year.

DOLLAR SOFTNESS On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at the same level. Governor Tiff MacKlem said that the central banks would not hesitate to increase rates to control inflation.

The pound was 0.1% stronger against the dollar Wednesday as investors closely watched the latest escalation of tensions between Iran and the U.S. ahead of the UK GDP data on Friday.

The leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin, was almost flat on the day. It now stands at $61,949. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Buckland; Will Dunham, Jan Harvey and Kevin Buckland; Additional reporting and editing by Sophie Kiderlin and Satoshi Sugyama in London; Reporting by Saqib Ahmed Iqbal; Additional reporting and editing by Sophie Kiderlin and Satoshi Sugyama in Tokyo)

(source: Reuters)