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Russell: Higher prices will affect Asia's crude imports in June.
Asia's crude oil imports rose in the first six months of 2025, as an increase in arrivals in June overcame the slow start of the year. According to LSEG Oil Research, the world's largest import region has seen arrivals of 27,36 million barrels a day (bpd), up by 620,000 bpd compared to the 26,74 million bpd of the same period in last year. The performance improvement was mainly due to the fact that June imports soared up to 28,65 million bpd. This is the highest LSEG data recorded since January 2023, and a significant increase from 27.3 millions bpd and 26,42 million bpd for June last year. China was the top importer in June, and LSEG estimated arrivals at 11,96 million bpd. This is the highest since March's 12,11 million bpd. India, Asia's largest buyer, is expected to import 5.26 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since March when 5.35 million barrels were imported. Market participants are wondering if the strong demand seen in Asia in June is a sign of a stronger second-half or if it is merely influenced by temporary factors. Price is the most obvious temporary factor. Both China and India are known to be sensitive when it comes to price fluctuations, increasing their imports at low prices but reducing them when they increase. The cargoes arriving in June would have been secured six to eight weeks prior to delivery. This means that the oil price was on a downward trend at the time. Brent crude futures traded in a range between a high of 75.47 dollars a barrel (on April 2) and a low of 58.40 dollars a barrel (on April 9). They then moved sideways until another low of 58.5 dollars on May 5. Brent oil has been rising since the low of May 5, reaching $70.40 per barrel on June 12 - the day before Israel began its bombing campaign on Iran. After the Israeli attacks, and subsequent U.S. airstrikes on June 23, crude oil spiked to an all-time high of $81.40 per barrel. The risk premium then disappeared with the ceasefire agreement announced by U.S. president Donald Trump. AUGUST IMPACT Asia's refiners will feel the increase in prices mainly on cargoes that arrive in late July or August. It will be important to monitor if there is a pullback in imports during this time period. There is no evidence to suggest that the demand for crude oil and refined products in Asia is increasing. According to the most recent official data, China's refinery production increased only 0.3% to 14,47 million bpd in the first five month of this year. The small increase in refinery output suggests that China's demand for refined products is slowing down and that most of the crude imported is being added to inventory. India's fuel consumption is flat as well. According to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, the oil ministry, the consumption of refined products for the first five month of 2025 was 4.51 million bpd, down from 4.52 millions bpd in the same period of 2024. From August, the increase in crude oil prices and the shock from the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran will likely weaken Asia's need for imports. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Increased supply of iron ore slashes prices; dollar strength limits gains
Iron ore prices dropped for the third session in a row on Thursday, despite a strengthening dollar. This was due to increased shipments out of Australia and Brazil. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended the morning trading 0.36% lower, at 698.5 Yuan ($97.51). As of 0354 GMT, the benchmark July iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange was down 0.37% at $92.4 per ton. Analysts at ANZ said that "Iron Ore Futures were on the verge of a new low for the year as strong supplies and lower production of steel in China weighs on sentiment". Data from Chinese consultancy Mysteel shows that inventories of imported iron-ore sintering fins rose for the third consecutive week, reaching 12.3 million metric tons by June 25, according to Mysteel. Mysteel said that the consumption of imported sintering fins had fallen by 1.5% on a weekly basis. The weaker dollar was still a factor in the price rises. It fell to multi-year lows after Donald Trump's remarks about replacing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell raised concerns over the Fed's independence. Dollar-denominated investments are cheaper for holders of currencies other than the greenback. Everbright Futures, a broker, reported that the major producer Vale increased its iron ore supply due to a rush at the end of season. This contributed to increased iron ore shipments globally from Australia and Brazil. Li Qiang, Premier of China, said Thursday that the government would take "forceful measures" to increase domestic consumption. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also rose on the DCE. They increased by 1.45% and 0.58 %, respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a decline in most steel benchmarks. Rebar dropped 0.47%, while hot-rolled coils fell 0.36%. Wire rod also slipped 0.21%, and stainless steel climbed 1.28%.
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Shanghai copper reaches two-week high due to dollar weakness
Shanghai copper prices reached a two-week-high on Thursday. This was boosted by the weaker U.S. Dollar, which dropped to its lowest level for over three years and relief due to the Israel-Iran truce deal. As of 0132 GMT, the most traded copper contract at Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.6% to 79,000 yuan per metric tonne, its highest level since June 11. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.7%, to $9.777 per ton. The dollar dropped 0.4%, to its lowest level since March 2022. This was due to concerns raised by a Wall Street Journal article that said Donald Trump had considered replacing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in September or October. This report raised concerns over the soundness of U.S. financial policy. A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more affordable to holders of other currencies. The "ceasefire" between Iran and Israel, on the geopolitical side, has had a positive impact on the copper price, said Kelvin Woong, senior analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA. Trump said that he will likely ask Iran to commit to ending its nuclear ambitions during talks next week. He also credited U.S. attacks on Iran for bringing an end to the conflict between Israel and Tehran. Goldman Sachs, in a recent note, said that it expects the price of copper to increase in the second half 2025, to an average $9,890 a metric ton. The bank cited fears of a global shortage of copper due to U.S. Tariffs and increased Chinese activity. LME aluminium increased by 0.3% at $2.570 per ton. Lead gained 0.6% to $2.044.5. Nickel firmed up by 0.9% at $15,215 per ton. Zinc was up 0.8% to $2.725. Tin fell 0.4% to $33,050. SHFE aluminium increased 0.4%, to 20,380 Yuan per ton. Zinc gained 0.9%, to 22,165 Yuan. Lead fell 0.8%, to 16,675 Yuan. Tin dropped 1%, to 256 930 Yuan. Nickel rose 0.4%, to 124 110 Yuan. $1 = 7.1605 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sonia Cheema, Sumana Niandy).
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Demand for crude oil is strong as the drawdown of US crude stocks signals a rise in prices
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, continuing gains made the day before, as an unexpectedly large drawdown in U.S. crude inventories signaled a strong demand. Investors, however, were cautious due to the Iran-Israel ceasefire, and the stability of the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up 15 cents or 0.2% to $67.83 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), gained 20 cents or 0.3% to $65.12 per barrel. The benchmarks both rose by nearly 1% Wednesday after recovering from losses in the first part of the week. This was due to data showing a resilient U.S. market. Yuki Takashima is an economist at Nomura Securities. He said that some buyers favor the solid demand shown by falling inventory in U.S. Weekly statistics. He said that investors are still nervous and want to know the status of the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The market is now focusing on OPEC+'s production levels. Takashima predicted WTI would return to its pre-conflict range of $60-$65. ANZ analysts stated that the focus of the market had shifted back to fundamentals with the deescalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. They also pointed out data showing U.S. Crude Oil inventories falling for a 5th consecutive week. ANZ analysts wrote in a report that "US government data shows the US driving seasons is in full swing following a slow start." Energy Information Administration (EIA), on Wednesday, reported that U.S. crude and fuel inventories decreased in the week ending June 20, as refinery activity and demand increased. The EIA reported that crude inventories dropped by 5.8 millions barrels. This was more than analysts expected in a poll which predicted a draw of 797,000 barrels. The gasoline stocks fell unexpectedly by 2.1m barrels, as compared to forecasts of a 381,000 barrel build. This was despite the fact that gasoline supply, which is a proxy for consumer demand, reached its highest level since December 2021. Igor Sechin said on Saturday that OPEC+ - which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia - could accelerate the production increases by a year. In the meantime, U.S. president Donald Trump has hailed a swift end to the war between Iran & Israel. He said Washington will likely ask Tehran to commit to ending its nuclear ambitions during talks with Iranian officials in Tehran next week. Trump said that on Wednesday the U.S. had not given up on its maximum pressure against Iran, including restrictions on the sale of Iranian oil. However, he indicated a possible easing of enforcement in order to help rebuild the country. (Reporting from Yuka Obayashi, Tokyo; Emily Chow, Singapore; Editing done by Sonali Paul).
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Aker BP Bites Dust in Norwegian Sea
Aker BP and its partners have drilled a dry well on the Rondeslottet prospect in the Norwegian Sea.Wildcat well 6405/7-4 was drilled in production license 1005, which was included in the Awards in Predefined Areas (APA) 2018, with awards taking place in March 2019.Aker BP is the operator of the license with 40% working interest, with partners Vår Energi and Norske Shell holding 40% and 20% shares, respectfully.The wildcat well was drilled using Saipem’s Scarabeo 8 semi-submersible drilling rig.The well is located in the Møre Basin, around 80 kilometers north of the Ormen Lange field and 175 kilometers northwest of Kristiansund.The well has been permanently plugged and abandoned.
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Gold prices rise as dollar weakens and Trump's Powell criticism fuels uncertainty
Gold prices rose on Thursday due to a weaker US dollar and growing unrest after news reports claimed that Donald Trump, the U.S. president, had considered replacing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell in September or October. The reports raised concern over the future independence and stability of the U.S. Central Bank, which boosted demand for bullion as a safe haven. As of 0242 GMT, spot gold was up by 0.2%, at $3,339.20 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures increased 0.3% to $3353.10. Gold priced in greenbacks is now less expensive for buyers overseas. Powell said to a U.S. Senate committee on Wednesday that, while Trump's tariffs might cause a temporary price increase, the risk of persistent inflation is enough to make the central bank cautious about any further rate reductions. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, said that Trump clearly wants to have a more dovish Fed chairman the next time around. The increased probability of a rate-cutting aggressive cycle is therefore weighing down the USD. Bullion is more likely to perform well in periods of uncertainty or when interest rates are low. On Wednesday, Trump referred to Powell as "terrible", and said that he was considering three or four candidates to fill the top Fed position. The Wall Street Journal also reported that Trump had even considered announcing Powell as Powell's successor in September or October. The markets are awaiting the U.S. GDP report due later today, as well as data on Personal Consumption Expenditures on Friday. Waterer stated that "Gold is basically treading on water until we get a reading on the next batch U.S. macrodata including GDP and PCE core". On Wednesday, the ceasefire between Israel, Iran and Syria appeared to hold. Trump, speaking at the NATO summit, applauded the quick end of the 12-day conflict. He also said that he will seek an Iranian commitment to stop its nuclear ambitions during next week's talks. Silver spot rose 0.2% to $36.36 an ounce. Platinum climbed 2.3% to $1.385.38, and palladium soared 5.5% at $1,115.58.
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Vietnam claims its refineries are not affected by Middle East tensions
The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced on Thursday that the Middle East tensions are not affecting the refineries in Vietnam at this time. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that Vietnam will import 5.1 millions tons of refined petroleum in the second half this year. This is an increase of 6.2% over the first half. Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical, which operated at 114.4% capacity during the first half of 2014, mainly uses crude oil from Africa and domestic sources. The 130,000-barrel-per-day refinery is expected to operate at 14% to 15% above designed capacity for the rest of the year, and imports, which account for 30%-35% of its crude oil input, and are sourced from Libya and West Africa, the ministry said. The statement quoted the CEO of Nghi Son Refining & Petrochemical saying its 200,000-barrel-per-day refinery had sufficient crude oil supplies and was operating normally. According to the ministry, two refineries will produce 7.7 millions tons of crude oil during the second half 2025. This is a slight decrease from the 7.8 million tonnes produced in the first half. (Reporting and editing by John Mair; Khanh Vu)
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Shanghai copper reaches two-week highs as dollar falls
The Shanghai copper price reached its highest level in two weeks on Thursday, as the dollar fell to its lowest point in over three years. This lifted market sentiment. As of 0132 GMT, the most traded copper contract on Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 0.3% to 78.820 yuan (10,995.79) per ton. This is its highest level since June 11. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange increased by 0.3%, to $9.737 per ton. The dollar dropped 0.1%, to its lowest level since March 2022. Concerns about the future independence and soundness of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policies undermined confidence in the currency. A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more affordable to holders of other currencies. The premiums for the London Metal Exchange's (LME) nearby copper contracts have fallen from their multi-year highs, on expectations that deliveries into LME-registered storage facilities in the next few weeks will ease the tightness. Goldman Sachs, however, expects the copper price to increase in the second half 2025, to an average $9,890 a metric ton. The bank cited fears of a global shortage of supply due to U.S. Tariffs and increased Chinese activity. Trump, on the geopolitical side of things, said that he will likely ask Iran for a commitment to stop its nuclear ambitions during talks next week. He also credited U.S. attacks on Iran with ending the war between Israel & Tehran quickly. LME aluminium rose 0.2%, to $2.567.5 per ton. SHFE aluminium rose 0.4%, to 20,385 Yuan. LME Zinc gained 0.3%, to $2.711.5. Lead grew by 0.4%, to $2.040. Nickel advanced 0.4%, to $15.130. The SHFE led rose 0.6%, to 17,200 Yuan. Nickel rose 1.4%, to 119.530 Yuan. Tin rose 1.7%, to 266,700 Yuan. Zinc moved up 0.6%, to 22,100 Yuan. ($1 = 7.1682 Chinese yuan) (Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy)
Meta signs power deal with Constellation Nuclear Plant
Meta Platforms announced on Tuesday that it had reached an agreement with Constellation Energy, which will keep one of its reactors in Illinois operational for the next 20 years. This is the first time a Big Tech company has made a deal with a nuclear plant.
Why it's important
The Big Tech Companies are seeking to secure electricity, as the U.S. demand for power has risen for the first two decades due to artificial intelligence and data centres.
Illinois is subsidizing Constellation's Clinton Clean Energy Center nuclear plant with a program of zero emission credits funded by ratepayers. This program awards benefits for the generation of electricity virtually free of emissions of carbon. This agreement expires 2027 when Meta's Power Purchase Agreement will provide an unspecified amount to support the plant for re-licensing, and operation.
This deal could be a template for other Big Tech firms to use to support their existing nuclear power while also planning to power their data centers using new nuclear energy and other sources.
KEY QUOTES
Urvi Parekh is the head of global energy for Meta. He said: "One thing that we hear from utilities very clearly is that they want certainty that power stations operating today will remain operational."
Joe Dominguez said, "We are definitely in conversations with other clients not only in Illinois but across the nation, to step up and do what Meta did, which was essentially to give us a backup so that we could invest in the needed investments to relicense these assets and to keep them operational."
Bobby Wendell is an official with the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers. He said that the agreement would provide a "stable working environment" for the workers in the plant.
By the Numbers
Constellation can also expand Clinton by 30 MW, which is a plant with a 1,121-megawatt capacity. The plant can power the equivalent of 800,000 U.S. households.
Clinton started operating in 1987, and Constellation renewed its license with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission last year. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler; Timothy Gardner)
(source: Reuters)