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United States gas surplus will be gotten rid of before end of winter 2024/25: Kemp

U.S. gas stocks are near record highs for this time of year after exceptionally moderate temperature levels connected to the El Nino weather condition phenomenon slashed gas and electrical energy usage for heating throughout the winter of 2023/24.

Ultra-low costs are increasing gas combustion by power generators and forcing producers to cut back drilling, which ought to make sure the surplus is gotten rid of before the end of winter 2024/25.

Working gas stocks totaled up to 2,484 billion cubic feet ( bcf) on April 26, the highest for that time of year given that 2016 and before that 2012, according to data from the U.S. Energy Details Administration (EIA).

Inventories were 666 bcf (+37% or +1.44 basic variances). above the 10-year seasonal average and the surplus had swelled. from 64 bcf (+2% or +0.24 basic discrepancies) at the start of. winter season on Oct. 1.

The enormous carryover of stocks at the end of the. winter season was mostly driven by remarkably warm weather. originating from very strong El Nino conditions in the main and. eastern Pacific Ocean.

Strong El Nino conditions are associated with much. warmer-than-normal winter season temperatures across the northern tier. of states and a sharp reduction in heating demand.

The winter season of 2023/24 was characterised by the greatest El. Nino conditions considering that 2015/16 and before that 1997/98.

Chartbook: U.S. gas inventories and rates

The United States and Canada experienced the warmest winter season on record, with. temperature levels between October and March more than 2.8 degrees. Celsius above the long-lasting average.

The month of December was especially warm, with. temperature levels more than 4.6 degrees Celsius above the long-term. seasonal average.

As an outcome, in between July 1 and April 30,. population-weighted heating demand across the Lower 48 states. was 11% below the 1980-2010 average.

Low consumption and excess stocks weighed on gas. costs, pushing them down to a few of the lowest levels for. decades after changing for inflation.

Front-month futures prices for gas delivered at Henry Center in. Louisiana balanced just $1.75 per million British thermal systems. in March 2024, the most affordable cost for more than 33 years in real. terms.

Ultra-low costs are currently assisting restore balance,. apprehending the accumulation of excess inventories, and are most likely. to eliminate the surplus before the end of winter season 2024/25.

BRING BACK BALANCE

Surplus inventories sanctuary been flat over the last 7. weeks because the middle of March, after rising regularly given that. October, except for a quick deficiency related to Winter. Storm Heather in January.

The winter season of 2024/25 is likely to be considerably colder. than the winter season of 2023/24 with more heating demand and gas. consumption.

El Nino conditions have currently faded and extremely strong. episodes occur with a frequency of about one out of every 10. years, so the likelihood of another strong episode next winter season. is low.

Exceptionally low gas prices are currently encouraging optimum. usage of gas-fired electrical energy creating units at the expenditure of. coal.

Total gas-fired generation capacity had actually reached 508 million. kilowatts (kW) at the end of 2023, up from 470 million kW at the. end of 2018 and 425 million kW at the end of 2013.

The gains have actually come at the expense of coal where capacity. had actually been decreased to 181 million kW at the end of 2023, below. 303 million kW a years earlier.

Low gas rates incentivised owners of these systems to run. them for many more hours throughout the winter season of 2023/24.

Gas-fired combined-cycle generators (the most efficient. gas-fuelled units) run at a seasonal record of nearly 63%. of their optimum capacity throughout January 2024, up from 57% in. January 2023.

Single-cycle gas turbines (which are far less effective and. mostly limited to satisfying peak demand) operated at a seasonal. record of 14% of their optimum capacity, up from 9% a year. in the past.

As an outcome, electrical energy generators burned through record. volumes of gas despite remarkably mild weather, according to. the most recent EIA data.

Generators taken in 1,158 bcf of gas in January 2024, a. seasonal record, and almost 166 bcf more than in the exact same month. in 2023, the previous high.

Low costs continued throughout the next 2 months and are. likely to have actually ensured generators consumed record seasonal. volumes in both February and March.

GETTING RID OF SURPLUS

Costs have actually increased somewhat from their trough in the. very first quarter, they stay close to multi-decade lows, guaranteeing. gas-fired generators will continue to provide an enhanced share. of electrical energy in the summer of 2024.

If there are any extended periods of extremely heat, the. resulting air-conditioning need is most likely to draw down gas. inventories rapidly, helping narrow the surplus.

At the very same time, gas exports have actually ended up being increasingly. critical in figuring out domestic stocks and costs and will. help in reducing a few of the excess stocks.

Pipeline and LNG exports totaled up to 22 bcf daily (bcf/d). in February 2024, up from less than 21 bcf/d in the same month a. year earlier and 12 bcf/d 5 years back.

Exports amounted to 21% of all domestic dry gas production. in February 2024, up from 20% in February 2023 and 13% in. February 2019.

By February 2025, the EIA projections exports will have increased. further to 23 bcf/d and absorb 22% of all domestic dry gas. production.

Finally, ultra-low rates have actually already required some major. domestic gas producers to announce cuts to their drilling and. production programs.

The typical variety of rigs drilling primarily for gas had. fallen to 108 in April, below 115 in March and 120 in. February.

Less rigs and finished wells will filter through into. slower development and even an outright decline in production previously. the end of 2024.

The mix of greater consumption and exports and lower. production is likely to eliminate the surplus and push costs. greater before the winter season of 2024/25 is over.

Related columns:

- Northern Hemisphere's record winter heat slashes gas. consumption (March 20, 2024)

- El Nino pushes genuine U.S. gas prices to multi-decade low. ( February 16, 2024)

- Prospect of strong El Nino weighs on U.S. gas prices. ( August 30, 2023)

John Kemp is a market expert. The views expressed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)