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United States oil and gas output was badly hit by winter storm: Kemp

U.S. oil production dropped greatly at the start of the year as exceptionally cold weather for 10 days in the middle of January caused extensive freeze offs at oil wells.

Across the country crude and condensates output was down by practically 24 million barrels or 0.8 million barrels each day (b/d) in January 2024 compared with December 2023.

The regular monthly decline was the biggest given that Winter Storm Uri in February 2021 and before that the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic in March and April 2020.

The fall was the ninth largest in over a century since records started in 1920 (a total of 1248 observations) according to information from the U.S. Energy Info Administration (EIA).

For 10 days between Jan. 13 and Jan. 23, centred around Winter Season Storm Heather, temperatures throughout the Lower 48 states were considerably cooler than average for the time of year.

The winter storm triggered a reasonably big influence on the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico with frozen equipment and teams not able to reach well sites.

Consistent with the storm-driven loss of output, there was a. short-lived dip in business crude stocks of 13 million to. 17 million barrels between early and late January, nearly all. reversed by the middle of February.

Chartbook: U.S. oil and gas production

A lot of other big monthly decreases have actually also been associated. with extreme weather occasions, including Hurricane Katrina in. September 2008 and Typhoon Rita in September 2005.

In every previous weather-related disturbance, production has. recovered to pre-event levels within the next one to two. months.

In this instance, it is likely crude and condensates. production will rebound to December levels throughout. February and March.

However the storm-driven disruption will make it difficult to discern. , if output growth has actually slowed even more following the fall in costs. . given that the middle of 2022.

Production in January 2024 was down by 35,000 b/d compared. with the same month a year earlier, after development of 1.1 million. b/d (10%) in December 2023 compared to the exact same month in 2022.

Development slowed a little in the second half of 2023, however. more gradually than expected, but the weather-related impact makes. it difficult to know if the pattern continued into the start of. 2024.

Far, the relentless boost in U.S. oil production has. disappointed efforts by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC? allies to. reduce global stocks and increase rates.

Following Winter Storm Heather, it will be at least a couple of. more months before the efficiency of the effort is understood.

U.S. NATURAL GAS

Gas production also dipped in January as a result of the. severe cold weather in the Permian Basin and other areas. ( Winter storms have actually disrupted U.S. gas production,. EIA, March 13).

Dry gas output fell by 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) or 3% in. January 2024 compared with December 2023, according to EIA information.

Production had actually still increased by 43 bcf (1%) compared to. the exact same month a year previously however that was below growth of. 197 bcf (6%) in December.

Like oil, gas production has been slowing in response to the. retreat in costs from a high in August 2022 to a multi-decade. low in real terms in February and March 2024.

The weather-driven disturbance in January is likely to be. reversed in February and March, and makes it impossible to. recognize whether the downturn continued at the start of 2024.

Notwithstanding the short cold wave related to Winter. Storm Heather, strong production integrated with a moderate winter. overall to leave a near-record quantity of gas in storage,. pushing costs.

Just like oil, the weather interruption suggests it will be several. If output development is slowing, more months before it becomes clear. enough to assist rebalance the marketplace.

Associated columns:

- Record U.S. oil and gas production keeps rates under. pressure (March 1, 2024)

- Rising U.S. oil production annoys OPEC? cuts (February. 1, 2024)

John Kemp is a market analyst. The views revealed. are his own. Follow his commentary on X https://twitter.com/JKempEnergy.

(source: Reuters)