Latest News

Canada's GDP contracted in August and could avoid a third-quarter recession

Data showed that the Canadian GDP shrank in August, despite a consensus estimate for flat growth. An advance estimate indicated the economy could avoid a recession by the third quarter. Statista Canada reported that the economy contracted by 0.3% during August, following a 0.3% increase in July, which was revised upwards. This effectively negated any growth in the current third quarter. This was the fourth contraction in five month and was primarily due to a decline in the growth of both the goods and services sectors. A preliminary indicator indicated that the monthly GDP was likely to grow by 0.1% in the month of September, bringing the annualized growth for the third quarter up to 0.4%.

The estimate may not be accurate. StatsCan publishes the quarterly annualized estimate based on data on industrial production, while StatsCan releases quarterly annualized GDP based solely on income and expenses.

Canada can avoid recession if the economy grows in September.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarterly contractions.

Canada's GDP shrank by 1.6% in the second quarter as tariffs and trade uncertainty slowed exports.

Michael Davenport is a Senior Economist with Oxford Economics. He said that the Canadian economy was on the brink of a major recession.

Some economists believe that the federal budget next week could boost spending and demand, and grow the economy.

After the release of the data, the Canadian dollar continued to weaken and traded at 1.4022 U.S. dollars or 71.32 U.S. Cents. The yields on government bonds with a two-year maturity fell by 1.5 basis points, to 2.397%.

Data showed that the manufacturing sector, which has been hardest hit by U.S. Tariffs and represents almost a 10th of GDP, contracted 0.5% in August.

The largest drop was in the mining, oil and gas extraction and quarrying industries, which decreased by 0.7%. This was primarily because of a 1.2% decline in metal ore and a 5.0% drop in coal mining.

In the services sector the biggest contractions occurred in the transportation and warehouse sectors, partly due to an airline strike.

The decline in this sector was partially offset by growth in real estate, retail trade, and rental and leasing.

(source: Reuters)