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Gold as a safe-haven reaches record highs above $4,100/oz due to Fed rate cuts and trade worries

Gold as a safe-haven reaches record highs above $4,100/oz due to Fed rate cuts and trade worries

The gold price surpassed the $4,100 mark on Tuesday. This was boosted by the expectation of a rate reduction this month by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and by investors fleeing to safety following a resurgence in trade tensions with Beijing.

As of 1:50 pm, spot gold was up 0.9% at $4,145.85 an ounce. ET (1750 GMT) after reaching a record-high of $4,179.48 in earlier session.

U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery gained 0.7% and settled at $4,163.40.

Metal prices have risen by 57% in the past year. On Monday, they broke the $4,100 barrier.

The rally was driven by a number of factors including geopolitical uncertainty, the expectation of U.S. rate cuts, central bank purchases and strong ETF inflows. Bank of America analysts and Societe Generale see gold at $5,000/oz by 2026.

The uptick in U.S. - China trade tensions, ongoing government shutdown and expectations of more Fed easing all support gold, said Peter Grant.

Grant said that U.S. president Donald Trump's threat to impose 100% duties on Chinese products, the roll-out of tit for tat port charges by both of the world's largest economies, and a macro-trend of de-dollarization, could push gold up to $5,000/oz in mid-next-year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday that Trump will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea.

Gold that does not yield tends to perform well in low interest rate environments. The markets are expecting a 25 basis-point cut in the Fed's rate this month. This will be followed by another reduction of 25 basis points in December.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated during his speech to the National Association for Business Economics' annual meeting that "based on the data we have, it seems fair to say the outlook for unemployment and inflation has not changed much since the September meeting four week ago."

Spot silver, buoyed up by the same factors that drive gold and tightness on the spot market, reached a record high at $53.60/oz, before retracing 0.9%, to $51.86.

Palladium rose by 3.2%, to $1,521.50, while platinum fell 0.3%. Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru, Pablo Sinha, Sherin Elizabeth Varighese, and Anil D'Silva; editing by Anil d'Silva and Sahal Muhammed.

(source: Reuters)