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OPEC maintains oil demand forecast, pointing to smaller supply deficit in 2026
OPEC did not change its forecasts on Monday for the relatively high growth in global oil demand this year and the next. It also implied that the oil market would see a smaller deficit of supply by 2026, as the OPEC+ group continues to increase production. OPEC+ has added more crude oil to the market since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies have decided to undo some production cuts faster than originally planned. This extra supply has led to concerns of an oil surplus, and has weighed down on the price of crude this year. In a report released on Monday by OPEC, the group said that global economic growth was continuing to be solid. OPEC reported that OPEC+ increased crude production by 630,000 barrels a day in September to 43.05 millions bpd. This was due to its previous decisions to increase the output quotas. According to a report, if OPEC+ continues pumping crude oil at the same rate as September, the global market will experience a 50,000 bpd deficit. The report from last month suggested that OPEC+ would have a 700,000 bpd deficit in 2026 if they continued to pump at the rate of August. (Editing by Kirsten Doovan)
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OPEC data show that Russian oil production continued to increase in September.
OPEC's monthly data revealed on Monday that Russian oil production increased in September, to 9,321 million barrels a day, an increase of 148,000 bpd over August. The world's top oil-producing countries have continued to ramp up their production. Despite the increase, last month's output was below Russia's OPEC+ production quota of 9.415 millions bpd for September. OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and a few smaller producers - has increased their oil production targets this year by over 2.7 million bpd, which is equivalent to around 2.5% of the global demand. After years of reductions, the policy shift is intended to gain market share away from competitors such as U.S. Shale producers. Alexander Novak, Deputy prime minister of Russia, said that Russia has gradually increased its oil production. In its monthly report OPEC said that Kazakhstan's oil production last month fell by 26,000 bpd. This is still higher than the quota of 1.550 million bpd set by OPEC+ in September. Kazakhstan is one of the main laggards when it comes to the OPEC+ agreement due to the increase in production at the Chevron Tengiz oilfield. It's the largest in the country. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Olesya Astalhova and Vladimir Soldatkin)
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Copper rally requires China's impetus in order to reach record levels
On October 9, copper prices reached $11,000 per ton, a milestone only seen twice before in the history the London Metal Exchange. Analysts are now wondering if the metal will ever reach a new high. Copper is used in construction and power. It was close to its all-time record of $11,104.50 set in May 2024. But it lost ground after U.S. president Donald Trump threatened higher tariffs against China. Benchmark copper traded at $10,644 per ton on Monday morning 1047 GMT. A weak dollar, and a string of mining accidents in the last few months have propelled metal prices higher in 2025, but demand is still in question. Ewa Mannthey, ING analyst, said that for the rally to continue, it will be necessary to see a strong growth in demand, especially from China. The bank also maintains a cautious view on the metal. "However, China's metals-intensive stimulus would increase demand and prices." This year, there have been disruptions at key copper mines including Grasberg, in Indonesia. Opinions differ, however, on whether the metal is in fact scarce or if prices are being inflated by speculators. The International Copper Study Group predicts a deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026 due to the force majeure situation at Grasberg. However, it still expects a surplus of 178,000 tons this year. BNP Paribas, after adjusting its annual loss allowance to account for the lower Grasberg production, expects a balanced copper market in 2019. David Wilson, senior commodity strategist at the Bank, said that "no one is struggling to get copper." "Funds may push industrial metals up, but industrial consumers won't buy it." The total copper stocks at the LME Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Comex is around 556,000 tonnes. Most of the copper is traded on the Comex system The United States has a surplus of copper, as the inventory that was built up before the impending U.S. tariffs were imposed on the metal had not been depleted. ShFE copper stocks The total is just over 110.000 tons, which is the highest level since April 25, but down nearly 60% compared to February.
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ILZSG: Global markets for refined zinc and lead will face surpluses in 2026.
International Lead and Zinc Study Group said that the global refined zinc and led markets will have larger surpluses by 2026. The group estimates that the global surplus of lead metal refined will be 91,000 tonnes in 2025, and the global surplus of zinc metal refined will be 85,000 tons. The group stated that global demand for refined lead will increase by 1.8% this year to 13,25 million tonne and by 0.9% in 2026 to 13,37 million tonne. Production is also expected to rise by 2% in 2025 to 13.34 millions tonne and by 1% in 2026 to 13.47 millions mtonne. In 2026, the growth of supply will be driven by Europe and China. Australia and the United States are also recovering their output. Demand for refined zinc is expected to rise by 1.1% in 2025 to 13.71 millions tons and by 1% in 2026 to 13.86 millions tons, while production will increase 2.7% in 2025 to 13.80million tons and 2.4% in 2026 to 14.13million tons. The group noted that by 2026, the global production of zinc is expected to increase due to the availability of more concentrate. Increases are also expected in Brazil Canada and Norway. In China, a new smelter Huoshaoyun, which will begin commercial production at 500,000 tonnes per year, will be launched. The group also noted that the new Verkhny Ufaley Smelter in Russia will boost production. ILZSG stated that after declining in 2023-2024, the world zinc mine production is expected to increase 4.6% in 2025 to reach 12.51 million tonnes, mainly due to a 5% rise outside China. On Friday, zinc was trading at around $3,006 per metric ton, while lead was around $2,003. Sherin Elizabeth Mukherjee and Anushree mukherjee, reporting from Bengaluru. Editing by Chizu nomiayama.
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LMEWEEK -Trafigura CEO minimizes AI and defence role in copper demand
The CEO of the trading house Trafigura stated on Monday that traditional applications of copper will continue as the largest part of the demand for the metal in the coming decade. This is not data centres or the defence industry. Richard Holtum, speaking at the LME Week in London, noted that artificial intelligence (AI), defence spending and metals demand are "buzzwords". He said that consumer demand will "dwarf three times" the AI demand for copper this year. Holtum, in a conversation with Matt Chamberlain, CEO of the London Metal Exchange said: "The amount that copper goes into air conditioning is more than what copper will go into data centers this year." Holtum stated that 90% of the copper demand we will see in the coming 10 years is from traditional sources such as infrastructure, construction, urbanisation and consumer goods. CRU, a consultancy, expects the copper demand in data centres to increase from 78,000 tonnes in 2020 to 260,000 tons by this year. Holtum stated that although the new applications will add a significant amount of demand, the "amount of airtime that defence and AI get relative to where the real demand is is slightly disproportional." (Reporting and Editing by Tom Daly)
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Cerebras to deploy AI infrastructure at Stargate UAE Data Centre Hub
Andrew Feldman, CEO of AI chip startup Cerebras Systems, said on Monday that the company plans to deploy its infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, to support the rapidly growing AI industry there, as well markets in India, and Pakistan. Feldman said, "I am very confident there will be large clusters of our equipment here," including "megawatts of equipment" for Stargate, Feldman referred to the U.S. and UAE agreement to build the largest AI data centre outside of the United States. California-based Cerebras produces high-performance AI systems and chips designed to accelerate the training and deployment large AI models. They compete with the industry leader Nvidia NVDA.O on the rapidly growing AI chip market. G42, a cloud-based AI company backed by Abu Dhabi, is one of its biggest clients. The firm signed a 2023 deal to purchase supercomputers. G42's past links with China have drawn scrutiny in Washington due to concerns about Beijing's accessing advanced semiconductors, including through third parties like the UAE. The UAE has spent billions on its AI push and is looking to leverage their strong relationships with the U.S. Sources reported that technology giants such as Nvidia, OpenAI and G42 are working together to build the Stargate UAE's first phase. However, the deal is not finalised due to security concerns. Cerebras computers built for G42 are still in the U.S. as Middle East deals require export licenses from the Trump Administration. Cerebras filed a withdrawal request this month to pull its plans for an American listing after raising $1.1 Billion in a financing round valued at $8.1 Billion. 1789 Capital is one of the new investors. Donald Trump Jr. is a shareholder. Feldman stated that the company would use the proceeds from the sale to expand manufacturing and finance new data centres. The goal is to increase the number of sites to 12 or 15 in the coming months, up from the current six. Feldman confirmed that Cerebras intends to make its offering public. He added, "We have an intention to refile as soon as we can", but did not provide a timeframe.
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Five people killed in clashes at an anti-Israel protest in Pakistan, according to police
Police said that at least five people died when Pakistani officers clashed against members of a hardline Islamist organization during an anti-Israel demonstration on Pakistan's busiest road. Tehrik-e-Labaik Pakistan's violent and massive street protests, which have plagued multiple Pakistani government, called the march in anticipation of Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement to end the Gaza War last week. The march along the Grand Trunk Road, which runs from Lahore in the east to Islamabad in the capital, is a 400-kilometer (248-mile) journey that began on Friday. It has been met with several clashes between the police and protesters who are trying to slow down the march. Police said Monday that they launched an operation in order to disperse hundreds protesters in Muridke. However, the supporters of the group opened fire and set more than 40 vehicles ablaze in a clash lasting over three hours. In a press release, the police stated that among those killed were a policeman, three protesters, and an innocent bystander. It was added that dozens of people on both sides had been injured. Police added that scores of protesters were also arrested. Police added that scores of protesters have also been arrested. Tehrik-e-Labaik claimed that it was the police which opened fire, killing several of its supporters and injuring others. The group also said that its leader, Saad Rzvi, had been injured with three bullets. A spokesperson for the provincial government did not respond when asked to comment on the claims of this group. Rizvi said at a Sunday news conference that his supporters wanted to march to Islamabad only to show solidarity with the Palestinian people. He added that the group had run previous campaigns to boycott Israeli goods. Hamas released the last 20 Israeli hostages under the ceasefire agreement on Monday. The deal aims to end the war that began in October 2023 following a Hamas assault that killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostage. Gaza's health officials claim that Israeli airstrikes and bombardments, as well as armoured ground attacks, have ravaged the area, killing over 67,000 Palestinians. This has caused a humanitarian catastrophe.
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Official: Hamas security forces have killed 32 members of the Gaza "gang"
A Palestinian security source reported on Monday that Hamas forces had killed 32 members from "a gang" after the ceasefire was declared on Friday. Six of their personnel were also killed. Officials said that the operation to secure Gaza City targeted members of "a dangerous gang associated with a Gaza City family". Officials said that the operation led to 24 arrests and 30 injuries. The Hamas-run Interior Ministry of Gaza has deployed its security forces since the ceasefire that ended the war with Israel. It has said this is to prevent the creation of a security vacuum which would lead to lawlessness and looting. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has asked Hamas to disarm as part of a plan that aims to end the Gaza War. However, he also indicated the group had the green light for its internal security operations. He said they were "trying" "to solve the problem", and "we approved them for a time period". RIVALS TO HAMAS The official didn't identify the gang, but there are several clans that have been rivals of Hamas for years. They only became more vocal as the war progressed. There have been a number of clashes. The official did not confirm that the gang belonged to the group headed by Yasser Ab Shabab, the most prominent anti Hamas rebel. He is based at Rafah, in the southern Gaza area, which Israel controls. Hamas accuses Abu Shabab, his supporters and their collaborators of working with Israel. He denies having any contact with Israel or receiving Israeli support. Hamas' security official stated that a senior Abu Shabab aide "has been liquidated", since the security campaign began with the ceasefire. He also said that the hunt for Abu Shabab is underway. He added, "The campaign will continue and escalate until the issue is resolved. No party will be permitted to violate law." (Reporting and writing by Nidal Al-Mughrabi, editing by William Maclean & Ros Russell; Writing by Tom Perry)
India's small-scale steelmakers reduce output due to weak demand and falling prices
India's small-scale steelmakers are facing a weak demand, increasing inventories, and falling prices. This is despite New Delhi having introduced its largest consumer tax cut in eight years, to boost growth and counter steep U.S. Tariffs.
India's economy grew by 7.8% during the April-June period, exceeding analysts' expectations. However, a decline in steel demand, reflecting weaker construction, raises questions about whether this rapid growth rate can be sustained.
India cut taxes last month on hundreds of consumer goods, including small cars, cement and steel, which are the main sectors that influence the demand for steel, in order to boost consumption and counter the negative impact of U.S. tariffs.
Small steel producers in India, which employs more than 1.5million people and accounts for 45% of the country's total capacity of 200 million metric tonnes, have said that they cut production by as much as a third because construction activity is still weak and automobile demand has not yet picked up.
The construction industry, which is responsible for almost a third (33%) of the steel consumed, has been slowed by heavy monsoon rainfalls. Meanwhile, rising input costs such as iron ore and electricity are further weighing on the industry.
The demand for bottled water began to decline in July. This was a month after India’s monsoon rainy season, which lasts four months, started.
Adarsh Garg said, "There's a slowdown and no demand for construction." Garg said that his company had reduced production by about 30%.
"We're still waiting for a positive impact from the GST reduction on automotives," he said. He was referring to India's Goods and Services Tax.
The first sign of an uneven impact is a weak steel demand. BigMint, a commodities consultancy, said that the weak demand was reflected in the domestic prices of hot-rolled coils, which dropped to a six month low of 49144 rupees (553.55) per tonne in September.
BigMint, in a press release, said that prolonged rain and delays or limited purchases as a result of site disruptions during construction projects were affecting steel demand.
Vedant Goel is the director of Enlight Metals. He said, "I don't think that things will improve until December."
Nitin Kabra of Bhagyalaxmi rolling mill said that trade tariffs affect consumer industries exposed to the U.S. They are impacting their spending, which in turn contributes to a lower demand for steel.
The weakening of demand is in stark contrast to last year when strong consumption drove suppliers from China and Japan to flood the Indian Market, prompting the Government to impose a Temporary Tariff in April in order to curb low-cost imports.
(source: Reuters)