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Gold prices remain stable as Fed chief Warsh prepares to deliver his Jackson Hole address
Market participants were waiting for the remarks of Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium, hoping to gain insight into the central banks future interest rate policy. By 0652 GMT, spot gold had not changed much from $4,603,91 per ounce. The price of gold reached a three-month-high of $4,696.18 after the U.S. Treasury announced support measures for bonds with long-term maturities. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $4 657.10. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, stated that the case for Warsh leaning hawkish was greater than for him to not do so. This could lead to gold falling further from its current cycle highs, in the near term. He said: "But I think any dip in the market will be welcomed by bulls who missed the first phase of this rally and want to have another go at $5,000." On Thursday, Fed officials expressed their concerns regarding the U.S. Inflation landscape as central bankers met in Jackson Hole. The Fed officials' comments come a day after the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s main inflation indicator, was found to be 3.7% for the 12-month period ending in July. Later in the day, Fed Chair Warsh will speak. According to CME FedWatch, traders see roughly a third chance that the U.S. will raise rates in September. By December, they expect a 74.2% probability. Gold is less appealing in an environment with high interest rates because it has no yield. In a recent note, precious metals analyst Christopher Wong stated that the yellow metal is still supported by increased participation in exchange traded funds and futures. He also cited concerns about U.S. fiscal reliability and continued purchases from the official sector. However, there are risks of a consolidation, he said. In India, gold discounts fell sharply 'this week', on the back of rumours that the government might consider rolling back recent import duties. Silver spot rose by 1.3%, to $70.13 an ounce. Platinum was up 1.7%, at $1,878.58, and palladium gained by 2.1%, to $1,379.50. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich, Subhranshu Sahu, Ronojojo Mazumdar in Bengaluru)
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District official: Nepal lake's water level is rising and breaking its banks
Narendra Pariyar said that the district's most senior bureaucrat, Narendra pariyar, received a notification on Friday saying that a lake had?broken it banks two days after flash flooding hit?the area. Both Nepal and China warned of new flood risks in the Himalayas after a lake formed across their borders due to debris from the flash flooding. He said that he could see the?water level in the river rising, but that it was unclear at this time how high the water level actually is. The authorities in Nepal have said that they will not be continuing rescue operations during the next 90 minutes. Witnesses reported that helicopter rescue operations were halted in the district and that locals rushed up the hill. Chinese state broadcaster CCTV warned that a lake dammed upstream of the Gyirong port border had started to overflow. A Chinese rescue team captured aerial footage of the formation of a lake barrier on Thursday. The video showed masses of brown water collecting in a basin without a visible outlet. Water had submerged trees and bushes and was pushing against a wall of stones and debris. All Chinese personnel and vehicles were also moved to safer areas, as the risks of the lake breaking and secondary disasters like mountain collapses and an avalanche intensified. The death toll confirmed in Nepal following the flash floods that hit its border areas on Wednesday and Tibet neighbouring has now risen to 469, with almost 1,000 people still missing. The?glacier collapsing had sent a torrent of rock and debris through the Himalayan river systems.
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China warns that a lake formed near the Nepal border by glacier debris is starting to overflow
Chinese authorities announced on Friday that a lake created by debris from the glacier collapse which caused catastrophic flooding along the China-Nepal boundary has started to 'overflow. This forced rescue operations to stop. China and Nepal?both warned of new?risks for flooding in the Himalayas on Thursday, as a 'debris dam' created a lake that was threatening to collide. China has been rushing to reduce the threat of further flooding at the border crossing connecting its Tibet region with Nepal after a deadly flash flood occurred on Wednesday. The state broadcaster CCTV reported on Friday that the risks of the lake bursting, as well as secondary disasters like mountain collapses and an avalanche, have caused?all Chinese emergency vehicles and personnel to withdraw and stand by in a secure area. The reservoir of the?lake has reached 2.5 million cubic meters, up from 1.5-2 million cubic meters that an eight-member Chinese engineering team dispatched to the site recorded the day before. CCTV reported that authorities mobilized the engineering team on Thursday to conduct aerial surveys of the barrier lakes and 3D modeling. Chen Hanxiao, one of the engineers, said that the site was difficult to access. Chen, speaking to CCTV on Thursday night, said that after the glacier collapsed and created the lake many steep cliffs were visible along its shoreline. Chen explained that the best way to reduce the threat of the lake is to dig a drainage channel near the dam. This channel's width and depth were calculated based on the speed of the water flow and the rate at which the lake would fill. According to their survey, the lake measured 150 meters in length and 40-50 meters in depth. Gyirong's border port has experienced light to moderate rain, which has caused soil and rock around the unstable zone upstream to become looser. Rain is expected to continue for the next week. China warned on Thursday that 3 million cubic meters -- equivalent to about 1,200 Olympic-sized swimming pools -- will flow into the lake still dammed over the next three days, creating a risk of breach. Peak flow is expected around September 1. A Chinese rescue team captured the formation of a lake barrier in aerial footage shown by CGTN, state broadcaster. The footage showed?masses of brown water accumulating into a basin without a visible outlet. It had already submerged trees and bushes, and was pushing against a wall of stones and debris. Officials say that nearly 1,000 people are still missing, on both sides, including 540 foreigners. Reporting by Liz Lee and Qiaoyi Li; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
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China rushes in to minimize risk of mountain barrier lake near Nepal border
China is racing to reduce a risk of a barrier-lake bursting that could cause more flooding along the border crossing between its Tibet region and Nepal. This could exacerbate the catastrophe which has claimed hundreds of lives since Wednesday. Both Nepal and China warned of new risks of flooding as a newly formed lake across their borders threatens to collapse. The region is still dealing with the catastrophic floods of this week. According to CCTV, the Chinese authorities mobilized an eight-member team of engineers to conduct aerial surveys as well as 3D modelling for the barrier?lake. Chen Hanxiao, one of the engineers, stated that the challenges include difficult access to the site. On Thursday night,?Chen said that after the glacier collapsed created the lake many isolated cliffs as well as steep cliffs appeared. Chen explained that the best way to reduce the threat of the lake is to dig a drainage channel below the dam. However, the width and depth needed to be calculated based on how quickly water will flow and fill the lake. The survey revealed that the reservoir was 1.5-2 million cubic meters of water. It measured 150 metres in length and 40-50 metre depth. The next task was to collect data and monitor the lake, as well weather monitoring for the upcoming days. Gyirong's border port area has experienced light to moderate rain, which has caused soil and rocks surrounding the unstable zone upstream to become looser and more unstable. Rain is expected to continue for the next week. China warned on Thursday that over the next few days 3 million cubic meters -- or the equivalent of 1,200 Olympic swimming pools -- will flow into the lake still dammed, creating a risk of a breach. Peak flow is expected around September 1. A Chinese rescue team captured the formation of a barrier?lake in aerial footage shown by state broadcaster CGTN. The footage showed masses of brownish water accumulating in a basin without an obvious outlet. It had already submerged trees and bushes, and appeared to be pushing against a wall of stones and debris. Officials say that nearly 1,000 people are still missing, both on the Chinese and American sides of border. This includes 540 foreigners, from 31 different countries. Reporting by Liz Lee and Qiaoyi Li; Editing done by Lincoln Feast.
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Stocks are cautious as Warsh makes his Jackson Hole debut. FX and bonds also hold their breath
After a technology rally fueled by Nvidia, shares in Asia slowed down on Friday. The currency and bond markets waited for the most powerful central banker of the world to comment on U.S. rates. The oil prices are headed for a weekly loss as Iran and Oman have agreed to share'revenues and administer 'traffic along the Strait of Hormuz, even though Washington is not interested in restarting direct talks with Tehran. Brent fell 0.4% to $89.33 per barrel, but the weekly decline was expected to be over 5%. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, rose 0.5%. Taiwanese stocks gained 0.8% as Nvidia's shares jumped nearly 9% over night after the chipmaker announced robust results. The chipmaker also signaled that the AI spending boom still has many years to run. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng increased 0.4%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures fell 0.2% while the?EURO STOXX50 futures rose 0.3%. The Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium is the focus of attention. Chair Kevin Warsh will?speak at the end of the day. Three Fed officials already raised the alarm over sticky inflation, but the new chief of the central bank has refused to provide any forward guidance on where interest rates will go. Futures prices indicate that there is a 35% probability of the Fed raising interest rates at its meeting on September 16. They are fully priced for a rate hike by December. In a client note, ANZ analysts said that while they do not expect him give any forward guidance, the markets hope he will help reduce the uncertainty around the Fed's response function. "We don't expect this to be forthcoming, but given the recent volatility of rates markets, it could cause a negative market reaction if Warsh offers a too small amount." After the Fed meeting in July, longer-dated yields jumped as Warsh was perceived as not having offered enough concrete steps to address persistently high inflation. Warsh is also leading a Fed that's divided, as several policymakers are calling for higher interest rates to curb price pressures. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds increased by 1 basis point last Friday to 5.2045%, but fell 7 basis points in this week. They briefly topped 5.3% for the first time since 2007. This prompted a surprise move from U.S. Treasury, which stepped up its buyback program. The 10-year yields rose by 1 bps and fell 5 bps in the past week. Meanwhile, two-year rates remained at 4.2340%. The dollar's value against major currencies was 99.20 cents on Friday, but it is up 0.4% this week. The Australian dollar is among the 'best-performing G10 currencies, after a hot inflation report this week led to a sharp repricing in Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate outlook. The Aussie reached a three-month high of $0.72, and was on track for a 0.4% weekly increase. This is the ninth consecutive week of gains. Gold dropped 0.5% on the commodity market to $4,579 per ounce. This week, it is expected to drop 0.5%.
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As Fed chief Warsh’s Jackson Hole address looms, gold prices fall
The price of gold fell on Friday, as investors waited for the remarks made by Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at a Jackson Hole symposium. Gold spot fell 0.5%, to $4,580.19 an ounce at 0438 GMT. The price of gold reached a three-month-high of $4,696.18 after the U.S. Treasury announced support measures for bonds with long-term maturities. U.S. Gold Futures fell 0.7% to $4.632.40. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, stated that the case for Warsh leaning hawkish was greater than "the case against him". This could lead to a further decline in gold from its cycle highs, Matt Simpson said. He said: "I suspect that bulls who missed the first phase will view any such dip favourably. They are eager to have another go at $5,000." Fed officials expressed their concern?about inflation in the United States on Thursday, when central bankers met in Jackson Hole. The Fed officials' comments were made a day after the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s main inflation indicator, was found to be 3.7% for the 12-month period ending in July. Later in the day, Fed Chair Warsh will speak. According to CME FedWatch, traders see a 33.7% chance of an increase in U.S. interest rates by September and a 74.2 percent chance by December. Gold tends to lose its appeal in an environment with high interest rates, despite its role as an inflation hedge. The gold price is supported by the increased participation in exchange traded funds and futures. Concerns over U.S. financial credibility?and ongoing official-sector purchases are also factors. However, there remains a risk of consolidation, according to OCBC's precious metals strategist Christopher Wong. He said: "We remain positive (on silver), but a cleaner extension upwards likely requires a renewed weakness in U.S. dollars and yields as well as a decisive break over the $70.60-$72 area of resistance." Silver spot fell 0.6%, to $68.85 an ounce. Palladium dropped 0.2%, to $1349.44. Platinum fell 0.3% to $1,840.78 and is on course for a loss of the week.
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Morning bid Europe-Warsh takes the hot seat in Jackson Hole
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow. Investors are focused on what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh says about inflation, and how he plans to bring it down to the target. Warsh is unlikely to meet expectations given his reluctance to provide forward guidance. But at least, markets are hoping for a more definite?reconciliation' between recent policy and inflation rhetoric. Although the steep selloff in U.S. Treasuries is now over, the yields are still well above what they were at the start of the year. This partly reflects investors' doubts that the Fed can keep inflation under control. The markets reacted cautiously to the speech. U.S. Futures fell lower, while European Futures were nudged higher. The Fed is not the only one with a credibility problem. It's also a problem for the U.S. Treasury Department. Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appear to be at odds on a key question in U.S. Financial Policy. How hands-off should policymakers be in deciding the price of money? Warsh has argued for a retreat from the Fed's longstanding communications policies, and instead let the?markets take the lead. Bessent, on the other hand, has used a variety of tools, many of which are unusual, to aid the market. Debate about the line to be drawn between fiscal and monetary policies is raging around the world. Warsh will also be asked about "fiscal dominant" in Jackson Hole on Friday. Investors may be disappointed if they look to him for the answers. The following developments could have an impact on the markets this Friday: – Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole, – German import prices in July – French preliminary inflation data for August (Editing by Jamie Freed).
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Copper prices set to rise for the eighth consecutive weekly gain on declining LME stocks
After a series of withdrawal requests raised concerns about availability, copper prices rose on Friday. Benchmark 'three-month' copper on the LME was up 0.22% to $14,314.5 per metric tonne by 0315 GMT. It has risen 0.7% this week. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract edged up 0.4% to 108.820 yuan (16,191.77) per ton. Craig Lang, principal analyst at information provider CRU, said: "Copper prices were supported by another large increase this week in LME warrant cancelations." The large inflows of copper last week have been offset by the cancellation of LME warrants this week, which means that metal is being withdrawn from warehouses. Available?copper at LME-registered warehousing Exchange data showed that the total was 107,050 tonnes on Thursday. This is down from 166,775 tones a week ago. Concerns about availability have been raised by the outflow of copper from LME and SHFE to U.S. warehouses ahead of an upcoming U.S. import tariff on refined copper. Zinc was also supported this week by falling warehouse stock, and rose 0.73% at the LME but fell 0.3% at the SHFE. Chinese zinc exports helped to cool fears about a'shortage' outside of the country. However, tight supply and speculation continue to drive up prices. Analysts from ING stated in a note that "LME inventories were low and treatment charges remained deeply negative, highlighting the tight concentrate supply and pressures on smelter margins." The LME zinc cash-to-3-month On Thursday, the price of was $231.75 lower than it had been on Wednesday. This indicates a tight supply. Aluminium fell 0.08% among?LME Metals. Lead eased 0.08%. Nickel slipped 0.14%. Tin was down 0.12%. The price of aluminium increased by 0.46%. Nickel fell by 0.38%. $1 = 6.7207 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu).
Northam Platinum declares record-breaking dividend following near eightfold increase in annual profit
Northam Platinum, South Africa, announced on Friday that its annual 'profit' increased by nearly a tenfold due to record production and higher price, allowing it to pay the highest dividend in its history.
Northam reported headline earnings per share at 30.44 Rand ($1.90) in the year ending June 30, up from 3.81 rand one year ago.
The miner announced that it would pay a record-breaking final dividend of 10 Rand per share. This is a 400% rise from the final payout last year. Northam's payout total for the year is now 6.8 billion rand.
Northam's refined Platinum Group Metal (PGM), which is a subset of platinum, has increased 4% in output to 938.754 ounces. Chrome concentrate production increased by 17%, reaching a new record of 1.69 million metric tons. Northam reported a 57% increase in the basket price of its PGMs. Revenues increased 64%, to 54 billion rand. After receiving an unsolicited bid from a major South African platinum miner, the company has invited interested parties to participate in a competitive bidding procedure.
(source: Reuters)