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Ford increases profit forecast for 2026 in spite of nagging aluminum costs

Ford Motor raised its annual guidance by $500 million on Wednesday, thanks to significant tariff refunds. However, it said it still faced rising material costs as it worked to source aluminum for the?lucrative F150 pickup trucks. Ford Motor Company received $1.3 billion of relief from the U.S. Supreme Court's February ruling that invalidated some Trump Administration tariffs. Ford booked a gain in the first quarter on the expected refund, which boosted its bottom line. However, the company acknowledged that it is uncertain how quickly the government will reimburse them. Ford's guidance was raised by less than the refund amount, as the company is now facing higher-than expected tariff costs. These additional expenses are mainly on raw materials, such as aluminum, since Ford's U.S. major supplier Novelis suffered two large fires by 2025.

The automaker said that production at the affected area of the New York factory is expected to resume in May or September this year. Novelis expects that production will resume in the second quarter. Ford increased its forecasted earnings before interest and taxes for the entire year from $8 billion to $10billion to $8.5billion to $10.5billion. After-market trading saw its shares drop by less than 1%.

The automaker declined to reveal its total tariff cost, saying that it would only be liable for a net of $1 billion.

Ford, based in Michigan, reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 66 cents during the first quarter. This was a far greater result than analysts expected, who had predicted 19 cents. The tariff refund helped to boost this figure. Ford's adjusted earnings were $3.5 billion, while revenue reached $43.3 billion.

Ford reported a quarterly net profit of $2.5 Billion.

F-150 Production Estimated to Have Fallen

According to CatalystIQ data, the inventory of the F-150 fell 38% from April of last year. This was largely due to the Novelis Fires.

Ford's F-150 is the top-selling vehicle in America and has been for over 40 years. It is also a major source of profit for Ford. Ford's financial health is at risk if its production is disrupted.

According to JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman citing data by?S&P Global Mobility, the F-Series production is estimated to have dropped 12% over the past year in the first three months as of mid-April. This was a greater drop than anticipated.

Brinkman, in an analyst note, said that Ford may have a harder time recovering than expected from the Novelis Fire.

Ford's total vehicle sale decreased by 9% in the first three months of this year, and the decline was largely due to a decrease in demand for hybrid and electric vehicles.

General Motors, a cross-town competitor, reported on Tuesday a 22% increase in its first-quarter profit. It also raised its earnings forecast for the full year. This was boosted by an optimistic $500 million tariff refund and a robust U.S. auto market. Ford's shares have risen by about 20% in the past year, while GM has risen by more than 60%.

(source: Reuters)