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Gold prices steady as investors look to US-Iran ceasefire; brace for inflation data
The gold?price was steady on Thursday, as investors remained cautious over the 'fragile' U.S.-Iran truce. A key U.S. Inflation Report due later that day will also be a focus for any interest rate clues. As of 0716 GMT, spot gold was unchanged at $4,715.45 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.8% to $ 4,739.40. "It does not seem that gold is looking for much?at the moment. Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central, said that there is still much speculation about what will happen after the ceasefire. Lan predicted that gold would consolidate between $4 607 and $4 860 in the near future. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has vowed to keep military assets in Middle East until an agreement with Iran is reached. He also warned that a major increase in violence would occur if Iran failed to comply. Israel's heaviest strike yet on?Lebanon was carried out Wednesday. It killed hundreds and drew a threat from Iran. The price of oil rose on Thursday amid concerns that supplies from the Middle East, a key region for producing oil, may not resume fully due to doubts about the durability of the two-week ceasefire. Since the beginning of the war on February 28, spot gold has fallen more than 10%. Higher energy prices have fueled inflation fears and caused markets to reassess their expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn reduced non-yielding metal's appeal. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 17 and 18 revealed that policymakers believed that rate increases?could? be necessary?to combat inflation that continues to exceed the central banks' 2% target. U.S. The Fed may be able to give more clues about its policy direction by releasing the Personal Consumption Spending data for February at 1230 GMT on Thursday. Also, the March Consumer Price Data on Friday. Standard Chartered stated in a note published on Wednesday that "we expect gold to continue its 'gains' in the months to come, despite increased?geopolitical risks." (Reporting by Pablo Sinha and Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Sumana Nandy, Subhranshu Sahu, and Harikrishnan Nair) (Reporting from Pablo Sinha and Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Sumana Nandy and Subhranshu Sahu. Harikrishnan Nair.)
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Iron ore falls to a one-month low due to rising supply and China's demand concerns
Iron ore prices fell?on Thursday, to their lowest level in over a month. This was due to a combination of rising supply and a lack of confidence in the prospects for demand in China's top consumer. The most traded?iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed the daytime trade at 750 Yuan ($109.78), its lowest level since March 4. Now, the September contract is the most traded instead of May. The benchmark May ore price on the 'Singapore Exchange' fell by 2.86% at 0700 GMT to $102.75 per ton, after hitting its lowest level since?March 10, when it was $102.1. Iron ore prices are under pressure due to higher shipments, according to analysts at broker Jinyuan Futures. They said that low profitability among steelmakers will disincentivise the mills to ramp up production, indicating a limited upside in demand. Analysts and traders, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue, also said that speculation about a possible agreement between?China's iron ore state buyer and global miner BHP on a 2026 contract term contract weighed heavily on the prices. This is because a resolution to the long-running dispute will increase the availability of spot cargo at ports. The China Mineral Resources Group, which was set up by BHP in 2022 in order to centralise the iron ore supply and get better terms from mines, is locked in a supply contract negotiations with BHP. This has prevented domestic steel mills from purchasing some of BHP's iron ore brands. Brandon Craig, the incoming CEO of BHP, met on Wednesday with the Chairman of the Chinese Aluminium Giant?Chinalco after Craig stated last month that his focus would be on strengthening BHP's relationship in China. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking components fell by 3.19%?and 0.66% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have been moving sideways. Rebar and hot-rolled coil both fell 0.15% and 0.42% respectively, while stainless steel increased 0.39%. $1 = 6.8316 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu Sahu; Beijing newsroom)
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Trafigura signs gold purchase agreement with Ghana's Bogoso Prestea mine
Trafigura, a global commodity trading firm, announced?on Thursday?it?had?signed an offtake agreement with Heath Goldfields Ltd., a Ghanaian-owned mining company. The deal was to purchase 700,000 ounces gold dore at the Bogoso Prestea mine located in western Ghana. Trafigura said in a press release that it would provide $65 million of debt financing in addition to the?offtake in order to support the restart of oxide ore mining operations at the mine. Trafigura stated that it would 'act as an offtaker of gold dore' (a'semi processed gold product? )?generated at the Bogoso Prestea processing facility. Deliveries are expected to begin later this year. Heath Goldfields finished the first gold pour on the site in february, marking the start of production after two years. "Bogoso-Prestea has a strong team of operational?experts, as well as LBMA compliance. We look forward to?applying our physical trading expertise, along with market access, in support of a 'Ghanaian-owned facility of this caliber," said Gonzalo De Olazaval. Trafigura announced that this is its first gold transaction in Ghana and their second on the African continent.
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The UK Foreign Minister says that Israel's bombardment of Lebanon is "deeply damaging".
Yvette Cooper, British Foreign Secretary said that Israel's pounding on?Lebanon is "deeply damaging" and risks destabilizing the ceasefire agreement between the United States of America and Iran. She told Times Radio that she wanted Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire. "We want the ceasefire to be extended to cover Lebanon because that would destabilise the entire?region." "The escalation we saw yesterday from Israel was deeply damaging, and we are calling for an end to hostilities." Britain has been criticized by U.S. president Donald Trump for not doing more to support Washington's war against Iran. It has tried to defend its Gulf allies and is working with other countries to find ways to reopen a key Strait of Hormuz. Cooper, when asked about tensions between London and its U.S. key ally, said that it was possible to maintain a close relationship with Washington while taking a different approach to the region. She argued that some of Trump's words, such as 'when he threatened the destruction of Iran's civilization,' were dangerous. Sky News quoted her as saying: "I believe that the rhetoric we've heard has been completely wrong." "That kind of escalatory language can have escalatory effects."
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There's a gulf between market expectations and reality in MORNING BID Europe
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The?day following, reality has begun to erode market expectations of peace and prosperity?in the Middle East. The?dollar is flat, while Asian stocks are down and Wall St. futures are off, despite holding a majority of yesterday's gains. Treasuries did not match the gains in European bonds. Fed members sounded in no rush to reduce rates, and some flirted with tightening. Iran questions the purpose of the talks scheduled for Saturday with the U.S., when Israel continues to attack Lebanon. The 10-point and 15 point plans presented by the two sides are virtually identical. According to reports, the English version of Tehran's plan does not even match its Farsi translation. It is important to note that the Strait of Hormuz does not have a full opening and ships do not sail through it freely, as some US officials claim. Officials are making claims. Any ship tracking site will show that vessels are still clogging both sides of strait with only a few?moving, then through Iran's?toll gate to the north of narrow channel. Before the war there were around 138 vessels per day that used to transit, but now only 10 or fewer. Iran's Revolutionary Guards test the limits of the newfound power they have over the waterway. They insist that tankers must be approved and checked for just $1 per barrel or $2 million for VLCCs. This is to be paid either in yuan, or crypto. For those who are worried about the end of the petrodollar, this is a big no. Shipowners are also in a bind, as even if willing to pay they would still be violating many different sanctions from many countries. There's also the issue of freedom of the oceans, which is a fundamental element of global trade. Why can't China or Yemen charge a fee for using the?Bab el-Mandeb, if Iran can charge for ships passing through the Hormuz Strait? South Africa might even charge a fee for the Cape of Good Hope, and Chile could charge a fee for the Cabo de Hornos. This would allow tolls to be imposed on all seaways around the world, and another link in the supply chain to be broken. The following are key developments that could influence the markets on Thursday. Weekly jobless claims and the third release of Q4 GDP German industrial production for February IMF Managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain-raiser address ahead of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings
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Russell: Refined fuel prices in Asia are declining, but supply is still stressed.
The price of refined fuels has fallen sharply, in line with the declines seen in crude oil after the tentative ceasefire agreement between the United States & Iran. However, the prices remain at levels that indicate a shortage. The prices of gasoil and jet fuel in Singapore, the Asian trading center, all dropped by?double digits on Wednesday amid relief from the market that the 'deal' may lead to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The 'ceasefire' and commitment to peace talks announced by the United States in separate announcements looks already to be on its way out. Tehran said it was "unreasonable to continue talks with the United States to form a permanent agreement as long as Israel continued to attack Iran-aligned Hezbollah in Lebanon. Some vessels have been reported to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz after the agreement, but it is yet to be seen if more ship owners are willing to risk transiting this narrow waterway, through which up to 20% of crude oil, refined products and liquefied gas were transported before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, on February 28, 2008. Even if tanker traffic picks up in Asia, the market for refined physical products?still appears stressed and is likely to remain that way for a long time. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark for crude oil prices, closed at $94.75 per barrel on Wednesday. This is a 13.3% drop from their previous close. Brent finished at $72.48 in February, meaning that it has gained 30.7% since the beginning of the Iran Conflict. The price increase for refined products in Asia is much higher than the Brent rise. Jet fuel has been the hardest hit, as it is harder to store. Singapore jet fuel On Wednesday, the price of a barrel ended at $193.53. This is down 14.2% compared to its previous closing and 20% lower than the record high?of $242.06 achieved on March 30. It is still more than twice the price of $93,45 that it closed on the 27th February, the day before Israel and the U.S. launched their aerial attack against Iran. Gasoil (the building block of diesel) ended Wednesday at $145.02 per barrel, a drop of 17.1% from its previous close. However, it remains 59% above the closing price on February 27. Gasoline The price of a barrel finished Wednesday at $120.80, down 13% compared to the previous close. Light vehicle fuel has increased by 52% since the February 27th close. MARKET TIGHTENS The premiums that refined fuels command over crude futures indicate that many Asian refiners struggle to obtain enough oil to maintain their operating rates. According to Kpler, data from commodity analysts Kpler, seaborne crude imports in?Asia were estimated at 19,22 million barrels a day (bpd). The three-month moving median of 25.0 millions bpd was recorded in the first quarter 2026. The last vessels to leave the Strait of Hormuz before its closure was effective after the conflict began were seen arriving in April. Even if more tankers begin to pass through the Strait, seaborne arrivals in the top-importing area are likely to be lower than usual in May. Kpler data estimates April exports by Asian refiners to be 6.61 million bpd. This is down from 7.32 million bpd in march. Kpler data shows that April and march were the two smallest months in Asia for refined fuel exports since April 2017. They are also down significantly from the 11,1 million bpd in February. Fuel prices are high because of the loss of 5 million bpd in refined product exports to Asia. Even if oil starts to flow out of the Middle East again at the pre-conflict level, it will take several months for the supply chain to catch up. There is a risk that the situation will worsen in the near future, particularly if the ceasefire does not work and the Strait of Hormuz continues to be off limits for most vessels. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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METI reports that the April-June crude output in Japan is expected to drop by 0.7% due to a lack of demand.
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that Japan's crude steel production is expected to fall 0.7% from a year ago in the April-June period due to slack demand in the construction and manufacturing industries. The fourth largest steel producer in the world is expected to produce?20.0 metric tons over the next three months. This would be the lowest production since the July-September quarter 2025, when it dropped to 19.93 metric tons. The annual crude steel production for the fiscal year ending on March 31, is estimated at 80.68 million tons. This is the lowest output since fiscal 1968 when Japan was experiencing high growth. METI stated that the construction industry's demand is unchanged, due to a lack of labour and increasing material costs. The METI expects the demand from automotive and other manufacturing industries to?stay flat. The?ministry, citing a?survey of the industry, said that consumption of steel products - including exports - is expected to fall 1.5% year-on-year in April-June to 17.98 millions tons. Exports only are expected to decline by 1.0%. Manabu Nabeshima of METI's Metal Industries Division told reporters that the crisis in Iran could reduce Japan's export to the Middle East. Reporting by Kantaro Kommiya, Yuka Obayashi and Shri Navaratnam. Editing by Shri Navaratnam.
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Andy Home: The drop in copper imports from China marks a change in the market's power.
The two-week Iranian ceasefire has helped to dispel some of the macroeconomic doom that had been engulfing the copper markets. But there could be an even greater problem for the copper bulls. China, which is the largest consumer of metals, has shown that it will not pay the high prices of January when the London Metal Exchange's three-month copper reached a nominal record of $14,527.50 a metric ton. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics which compiles trade data from customs statistics, the country's net imported of refined copper fell to 125 350 tons in February. This is the lowest monthly tally recorded since April 2011. It is natural for buyers to react to high prices in any commodity. However, China's influence over copper pricing has been steadily growing, due to its increasing domestic production capacity. Import SLumps, Export Surges Since September, the LME copper prices have been rising and reaching their January peak. Inbound shipments continued to slow, falling to 454,000 tonnes in the first two month of 2026. This is a drop of 25% compared to the same period in 2025. Chinese smelters are also increasing exports to take advantage of the strong price. The outbound shipments increased to 172,000 tonnes in January-February, up from 49,000 tons during the same period last year. China's net copper draw from the rest was only 283,000?tons combined in January and february, the lowest start to any year since 2006. Exports to Europe and America, in particular, are likely to have come from China’s bonded warehouse stock as traders filled the supply-chain gap left by last year’s?U.S. Tariff trade sucked metal to the United States. Chinese metal is also flowing directly to LME storage in South Korea, Taiwan and other countries. According to the LME monthly report, the amount of Chinese-brand Copper on LME warrant increased from 87 475 tons at end of December, to 155 600 tons at end of February. The big changes in China's trade in copper explain why LME stock levels of 385,275?tons are above their peak in 2018 and have returned to?levels seen last in 2013. HOLIDAY HIGH The massive build-up of copper in Chinese domestic stocks is remarkable given the sharp decline in imports. Shanghai Futures Exchange's (ShFE) stock always increases around the Lunar New Year period, but this year was more than usual. Early March saw a peak of 433,500 tonnes, up from a holiday record of 268,300 last year. The previous record for the season was 380,000 tonnes in 2020 when holidays coincided in China with COVID-19. ShFE stocks are down to 301,000 tonnes. There's still plenty of metal left to be used before we can start importing. Yangshan Copper Premium The usual bounce after the holidays has been seen in, an indicator closely watched of spot demand for imported vehicles. Shanghai Metal Market, a local data provider, estimates the premium over LME base prices at $65 per tonne, up from $ 20 in January but still a long way off $ 89 this time last year. The Chinese manufacturing sector has grown for four months in a row, but the impact on the market is being mitigated due to high inventories. GROWING POWER The expansion of China's domestic smelting capacity is the key to China's increasing resilience against high prices. Macquarie Bank estimates that the country's refined copper output will grow by 9% annually in 2025. This translates into an additional million tons of metal. Chinese smelters consistently outbid Western counterparts to secure raw materials in a competitive copper concentrates market. Macquarie estimates a modest growth of?1.8% in global mined production from 2025 to 2025. China's copper concentrate imports increased by 7.8% during the same time period. Imports for recyclable copper, another possible refinery feedstock, rose by?4% on an annual basis. China's ability, to secure enough raw materials to fuel the country's rising self-sufficiency of refined copper at a price for everyone else. Macquarie estimates that Western smelter output will shrink by 5.1% between 2025 and 2030. China is better able to resist higher prices by reducing imports and increasing exports. Copper?bulls would be roaring again if the Iran war de-escalated. Don't expect China will follow the bull script. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
Gold prices steady as investors look to US-Iran ceasefire; brace for inflation data
Gold prices remained relatively?stable on Thursday, as investors remained?cautious? about the fragile U.S.Iran ceasefire. A key U.S. Inflation Report due later that day will also be a focus for any interest rate indications.
As of 0523 GMT, spot gold increased by 0.1% to $4,721.51 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell by 0.7% to $4744.90.
It doesn't seem like gold is doing much right now. Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central, said that there is still "a lot" of speculation about what will happen after the ceasefire. Lan predicted that gold would consolidate in the short term between $4,607 to $4,860. Israel's heaviest strike yet on?Lebanon killed hundreds and prompted a threat from Iran to retaliate. On Thursday, oil prices rose amid concerns that production from the Middle East's key producing region might not resume fully due to doubts about the durability of the ceasefire. Since the beginning of the war on February 28, spot gold prices have fallen by more than 10%. Higher energy prices fuelled inflation fears and caused?markets reassess their interest rate expectations. This reduced non-yielding metal's appeal.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting held on March 17 and 18 revealed that policymakers believed that additional rate increases could be required to counter the inflation that continues to exceed the central bank's 2% goal. U.S. The Personal Consumption Spending data for February will be released at 1230 GMT. Consumer price data for March, due on Friday, could provide further information on the Fed's policy path.
Standard Chartered said in a Wednesday note that "amid increased geopolitical risks, we expect gold will continue to rebuild its losses in the coming month."
Other metals include spot silver, which fell by 0.1% per ounce to $74.07, platinum, which lost 0.4% at $2,020.60, and palladium, which rose 0.3% at $1,559. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Nandy and Subhranshu Sahu in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)