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World Bank predicts Nigerian economic growth in 2026, but Iran war raises inflation
The World Bank stated that Nigeria's economy will grow despite the Iran war in the first half of 2026. Fiseha Haile, World Bank Nigeria's lead economist during a presentation held in Abuja said that business activity is still in expansion mode. The conflict between the U.S./Israel/Iran has so far raised prices while leaving the output mostly intact. The impact on growth is relatively limited, as the overall business activity has increased in the last few months. Haile stated that the shock was still felt by higher inflation. Bola Tinubu is now in his third year as president. He has implemented the most ambitious economic reforms in Nigeria in decades. This includes ending expensive fuel and energy subsidies, devaluing currency, and changing tax systems to stabilize an economy that was battered by inflation, currency weakness, and external shocks. Haile stated that the inflation rate has dropped sharply from 33% to 15.5% in February 2024. However, it remains high in comparison with other countries in the region and is under renewed pressure ever since Middle East conflict began. Fuel prices rose by more than half during the Iran War, affecting transport, food, and production costs. He said Nigeria should lift restrictions on fuel imports in order to ease inflation. RISK TO INCOME Haile stated that "inflation remains high and is under increasing pressure. This poses risks for incomes and poverty reduction." Nigeria's external buffers are improving as the foreign exchange reserves increase and volatility decreases. However, tighter global financing conditions continue to threaten inflows and borrowing costs. Haile stated that Nigeria's fiscal gap widened to 3.1% GDP by 2025 but remains lower than it was in the years before the reform. He also added that the debt ratio fell for the very first time in the last decade due to improved fiscal performance and gains in exchange rate valuation. The World Bank has forecasted an economic growth rate of 4.2% by 2026. It urged governments to conserve windfalls from rising oil prices, to keep monetary policies tight, and to avoid blanket subsidies to curb inflation. The World Bank stated that Nigeria should accelerate reforms beyond macro stabilisation to achieve inclusive, long-term growth. Early childhood development is a top priority. Nigeria has some of the worst outcomes in the world, with 110 children dying before they reach age five. Approximately 40% are stunted and more than 50% fail to reach developmental milestones prior to school. The recent investments in health and nutrition are encouraging. However, the challenge is to deliver "a coherent and continuous child-centred package", from pregnancy until age five. This includes health, nutrition and water sanitation as well as foundational learning.
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Brazil's power regulator moves against Enel in Sao Paulo
Aneel, Brazil's energy regulator, decided on Tuesday to "move forward" with a forfeiture procedure that could lead to the termination a concession owned by a local Enel unit in Sao Paulo. Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira asked Aneel in December to "start the termination process" for Enel after extreme weather events caused power outages that affected more than 2 million customers in the Sao Paulo metro area. Enel has another chance to defend itself before the regulator decides to recommend that the concession is revoked. The change in the process prevents Enel Sao Paulo from automatically renewing its contract that expires?in 2028. It would be difficult to sell the concession, which was the option that companies who faced similar problems in the electricity sector have previously chosen. Enel has, however, publicly stated that they do not intend to sell the asset. Enel didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Reporting by Leticia Fukuma, Writing by Isabel Teles and Editing by Aurora Ellis
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US-Iran negotiations continue, but Saudi Arabian strikes may derail efforts, say sources
Two Pakistani sources familiar with the talks said that the United States-Iran talks were in danger of being derailed because of Tehran's attacks against Saudi Arabian industrial facilities. Two Pakistani sources with knowledge of the discussions said that the talks between the United States and Iran were at risk of being derailed?after Tehran's attacks on Saudi Arabian industrial?facilities. One source said that the next few hours are crucial. Trump gave Iran until 8 pm in Washington (3:30 am in Tehran) to end its Gulf oil blockade or the U.S. would destroy every Iranian bridge and power station. Iran has threatened to retaliate on behalf of U.S. Gulf allies, as their desert cities will be uninhabitable if they don't have power or water. Iran increased its strikes over night, hitting a Saudi Petrochemical Complex as the latest proof of the nation’s ability to strike against U.S. and Israeli attacks. The Strait of Hormuz was closed, causing the biggest energy disruption in history. It is the main artery that transports one-fifth the world's gas and oil. Pakistan has been a main intermediary for proposals that both sides have shared, but no signs of a compromise have been seen. One source said that the attack on the Jubail complex could lead to Saudi Arabia retaliating, which would put an end to the talks. It could also bring Pakistan into the conflict, under the defence pact it has with Riyadh, which binds them both in the event of war. Shehbaz Shaif, Pakistani Prime Minister, condemned the Saudi strikes against Saudi facilities in a phone call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He said Pakistan would stand shoulder to shoulder with its Saudi sisters and brothers. MESSAGES READY TO BE EXCHANGED "We're in contact with the Iranians." "They have recently shown flexibility in that they could participate in the talks. But they are also taking hardlines?as an essential prerequisite for any negotiation," said the Pakistani source. He said that Islamabad is persuading Tehran into entering negotiations without any prior conditions. Iran's spokesperson for the foreign ministry said Monday that messages between Iran and?U.S. are still being exchanged. Through mediators. According to a senior Iranian source, Tehran rejected a proposal of a temporary truce with talks conditional on the?end of U.S./Israeli strikes? and?compensation? for damages. The Pakistani Foreign Office said that on Tuesday, the attacks on Saudi Arabia represent a dangerous escalation. After top commanders had met with Asim Munir, a Pakistani Army statement said: "Such unwarranted aggressive actions have serious repercussions and can spoil the peaceful options that are currently in place as well as a conducive environment." Pakistan is trying to avoid getting dragged into the conflict, which could cause havoc on its western border shared with Iran, and stir up discontent in its Shi'ite majority, the second largest in the world, after Iran. Analysts claim that the defence agreement "may not trigger an immediate military action, but could be activated" if the conflict escalates. Adam Weinstein of the Quincy Institute, a Pakistan, Afghanistan, and U.S. political expert, said that Iran's willingness at a crucial time to broker a ceasefire to punish the Gulf for U.S. or Israeli strikes, shows how Tehran is committed to a titt-for-tat policy.
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Next Monday, the heads of IMF, World Bank, and IEA will meet to discuss energy crisis
Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, said that the leaders of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary 'Fund, and World Bank will be discussing the 'energy crisis triggered by the Iran war' next Monday. Birol, on the social media platform X said: "This energy crisis requires all hands on deck & global cooperation." He stressed the need for three?institutions worldwide to support governments in the face of the economic fallout caused by the?war. Birol, IMF chief Kristalina?Georieva and World Bank's Ajay?Banga decided last week to create a coordination group in order to deal with a?regional disruptor that has led to one of the largest supply shortages ever recorded on the global energy market. They said that their response mechanism might include providing targeted policy advice and assessing possible financing needs. Birol's statement came as U.S. president Donald Trump threatened Iran that "a entire civilisation" would die if Tehran did not accept an ultimatum for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, this international waterway was used to transport a fifth of all oil and natural gas liquefied around. Birol told the French newspaper Le Figaro recently that the current oil crisis, triggered by the 'Irani blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, is "more severe than the ones in 1973 and 1979 combined". Reporting by Dominique Vidalon and America Hernandez; Writing by Charlotte Van Campenhout, Forrest Crellin, Editing by Gareth Jones
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Gold stable as caution prevails before Trump's Iran deadline
The gold price was little changed Tuesday as caution ruled the market in anticipation of a 'U.S. The looming deadline set by President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz, or face devastating attacks on Iran's infrastructure. By 11:16 am, spot gold had remained flat at $4.648,32 per ounce. ET (1516 GMT), following a 1% rise earlier in the day. U.S. Gold Futures dropped 0.3% to $4670.90. The gold market is teetering on the edge of a cliff ahead of tonight's 8 p.m. Eastern Time U.S. deadline. The gold market is on hold while traders await the outcome of this event, which could have a significant impact, said Jim Wyckoff. IRAN SHOW NO SIGN OF CONCEDING Strikes against Iran increased throughout the day, but Iran showed little sign of accepting Trump’s ultimatum that the Strait be opened by the end?Tuesday. The U.S. President said that "a whole civilization will die tonight" without a deal with Tehran. Gold traders are more concerned about what central banks will do with interest rates, than geopolitics. Wyckoff explained that if major economies delay lowering their interest rates, this could be extrapolated as a 'lessening of demand for gold. Since the Iran conflict, oil prices have risen. Energy costs are rising, which leads to inflation and leaves central banks little room to reduce interest rates. Gold is a hedge against inflation but it's less appealing in an environment of high rates because it has no yield. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting from March will also be released Wednesday. Additionally, U.S. The Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Spending data are due Thursday. Data showed that China's central bank has continued to buy gold for the 17th consecutive months. Silver spot fell 2.7%, to $70.83 an ounce. Platinum dropped 3.4%, to $1.911.37. Palladium fell by 4.3%, to $1.421.75. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis, Diti Pjara and Ashitha Shivaprasad from Bengaluru)
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World Bank predicts Nigerian economic growth in 2026, but Iran war raises inflation
The World Bank stated on Tuesday that Nigeria's economy will grow in the first half of 2026, despite the Iran War. However, rising fuel prices and persistently high inflation could squeeze incomes, slowing poverty reduction. Fiseha Haile, World Bank Nigeria's lead economist during a presentation held in Abuja said that business activity remains in growth territory. The conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran has so far lifted prices while leaving output mostly intact. The impact of the growth shock has been contained, as the overall business activity has increased over the last few months. "But the shock is still felt by higher inflation," said?Haile. In his third year as president, Bola Tinubu has implemented the most ambitious economic reforms in Nigerian history. He has ended costly fuel and electricity subsidies, devalued the currency, and changed the tax system to stabilise the economy, which is ravaged by high inflation and currency weakness, and external shocks. Haile stated that the inflation rate?adjusted to 15.06 percent in February from 33.3 percent in December 2024. However, it remains high in comparison with other countries in the region and is under renewed pressure ever since Middle East conflict started. Fuel prices rose by more than half during the Iran War, affecting transport, food, and production costs. He said Nigeria should lift restrictions on fuel imports in order to ease inflation. Haile stated that "inflation is still high and under increasing pressure. This poses risks to incomes as well as poverty reduction." Nigeria's external buffers are improving as the foreign exchange reserves increase and volatility eases. However, tighter global financial conditions continue to threaten inflows and borrowing costs, and remittances. Haile stated that the Nigerian fiscal deficit increased slightly to 3.1% GDP in 2025. However, it remains lower than the pre-reform period. Haile also added that the debt-to GDP ratio had fallen for the first time since a decade due to improved fiscal performance and exchange rate valuation gains. The World Bank has forecast a 4.2% economic growth for 2026. They have urged governments to keep their monetary policies tight and to avoid blanket subsides to curb inflation. Reporting by Camillus Eboh, Abuja. Writing by Elisha Gbogbo. Editing by William Maclean.
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As the Hormuz Crisis worsens, physical oil prices have reached record highs of near $150 per barrel.
Analysts say that the closure of Hormuz creates a very tight market for oil deliveries in the near future. Data from LSEG shows that the price of North Sea Forties crude has reached a record high. Expert: * Fear over supply is driving physical price higher. (Adds Platts dated Brent assessment in paragraph 8, adds LSEG in paragraph 10) By Alex Lawler LONDON, 7 April - European and Asian refiners have paid record prices of near $150 a barrel for certain crude oil grades. This is far higher than the paper futures price, highlighting the worsening crisis in supply caused by the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the Middle East to shut down at least 12,000,000 barrels of oil per day, or about 12% of global supply. Brent oil futures hit $119.50 per barrel in the last month. This is the highest price since 2022, but still falls short of the record high of $147.50 set in 2008. Brent oil futures are for delivery in June. The competition between Asian and European refiners, who are trying to replace Middle Eastern oil supplies disrupted by the disruptions in supply, has contributed to driving up prices for replacement crudes that can be delivered more quickly. Some crudes have already broken records. The price of North Sea Forties Crude According to LSEG 'data, oil prices reached $146.09 per barrel on Tuesday. This is above 2008 levels and a new high. Adi Imsirovic is a veteran oil dealer who believes that "panic" about supplies is the main reason for high prices like those of Forties. "When there's a real physical shortage, people don't think about June loading, and therefore June futures price, but oil NOW." Forties, and other cargoes all over the world are linked to a physical crude oil benchmark called dated Brent According to LSEG, the price for cargoes for 'immediate delivery' is almost $20 more than Brent futures prices for June. Morgan Stanley analysts stated in a recent report that the market was scrambling to find barrels suitable for refineries. The stress appears first in the benchmark closest to the physical problem. A Platts spokesperson confirmed that S&P Global Energy Platts had assessed the price of dated Brent at $141.365 on April 2, which is close to the record high - $144.22 - set in 2008. Platts' dated Brent price would place the Forties and other physical cargoes well above $150. Prices for refined products in Europe were close to records on Tuesday. LSEG data show that jet fuel prices in Europe were hovering at $226.40 a barrel, near a record high reached in mid-March. Diesel prices, which stood at $203.59 per barrel on Tuesday, were still below their 2022 record highs. (Additional reporting by Seher dareen; editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Alistair Bell).
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As the Hormuz Crisis worsens, physical oil prices have reached record highs of near $150 per barrel.
Analysts say that the closure of Hormuz creates a very tight market for oil deliveries in the near future. LSEG data: North Sea Forties crude reaches a?record-high outright price Expert: * Fear of shortages is driving physical prices up By Alex Lawler LONDON, 7 April - European and Asian refiners pay record high prices of nearly $150 per barrel for a few crude oil grades. This is far higher than the paper futures price, which highlights the worsening crisis in supply caused by the U.S./Israel war against Iran. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the Middle East to shut down at least 12,000,000 barrels of oil per day, or about 12% of global supply. Brent oil futures hit $119.50 per barrel in December, the highest level since 2022, but still below the record high of 147.50 set in 2008. Brent oil futures for June delivery are the contract that is closest. The competition between Asian and European refiners for Middle East oil to replace the disrupted Middle Eastern oil flow has helped to push up prices of replacement crudes, especially those that are available in Europe and Africa. Some?crudes have already broken records. The outright price for North Sea Forties crude According to LSEG, the price of a barrel reached $146.09 on Tuesday. This is above 2008 levels and a record high. Adi Imsirovic is a veteran oil dealer who believes that "panic" about supplies is the main reason for high prices like those of Forties. "When there's a real physical shortage, people don't think about June loading, and therefore June futures price, but oil NOW." Dated Brent is the benchmark physical crude oil that determines the price of Forties, and other cargoes all over the world. According to LSEG, the price is almost $20 higher for June delivery than for Brent futures. This is because the price reflects cargoes that are ready for immediate delivery. Morgan Stanley analysts stated in a recent report that the market was scrambling for barrels that could be used in refineries immediately. The benchmark closest to the physical problem is the first one to experience stress. On Tuesday, prices of refined products in Europe reached near-record highs. The price of jet fuel in Europe hovered at $226.40 per barrel, near the record high set in mid-March. Diesel prices, which were $203.59 per barrel on Tuesday, are still below their 2022 record highs. (Additional reporting by Seher Daeen; editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, Alistair Bell).
Ghana leases Gold Fields Damang mine to local firm Engineers & Planners
The Mines Minister announced on Tuesday that Ghana has selected local mining'services' company Engineers & Planners Ltd. to take over Gold Fields Damang gold mine. Ghana, which wants to increase local ownership of its mining industry, rejected Johannesburg-based Gold Fields’ lease renewal bid last year and took control of the mine, breaking years of automatic extension. Then, it?began to assess local bids in order to revive the asset for $1 billion. Emmanuel Armah Kofi Buah, in a'statement', said that the 'Minerals Commission had recommended e&p as the winning bidder.
The company showed that it could access funding of up to $500 million, which was the minimum amount required by the government. The statement also praised the company's technical expertise, equipment, safety, and local content. Gold Fields has been operating Damang mine for more than 20 years. Initially, it said that they may sell the mine due to its short life expectancy and lack of reserves. Last month, it said that 'it is working to ensure a smooth transition of the mine from the current operator to the new one.
The 'tender' aims to protect jobs, keep the mine running and increase local participation. Christian Akorlie, Emmanuel Bruce and Maxwell Akalaare Adombila report; Maxwell Akalaare Adombila writes; Barbara Lewis edits.
(source: Reuters)