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Two sources claim that Saudi Aramco has reduced output at two oilfields.
Two sources reported on Monday that Saudi oil 'giant 'Aramco had begun cutting production at two of its fields, following the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which was followed by attacks on the Strait of Hormuz. The fields where production is being cut and how much was not immediately known. Aramco declined to comment on the rerouting of some crude cargoes from its Red Sea port to Yanbu. The world's largest oil exporter has reduced its production to highlight the?severe logistics bottlenecks? in the region. Since the U.S. began attacking Iran, on February 28, and Tehran responded by launching hundreds missiles and drones including against Gulf countries that host?U.S. Military facilities. Saudi Arabia's neighbours also reduced production, as the shipping chokepoint in the oil transit area, which carries a fifth or more of global oil and LNG flows, came to a near-halt. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reduced its oil production and declared force majeure for shipments. Qatar also halted LNG production at the massive Ras Laffan hub after drone attacks and declared force majeure. As storage limits have been reached, oil production in Iraq's southern main fields has fallen by about 70%. The United Arab Emirates ADNOC also reduced 'offshore output' and Bahrain's Bapco Energies declared force majeure. Brent crude futures have reached their highest level since mid-2022, at about $120 per barrel. Analysts have said that while Saudi Arabia has increased crude oil shipments via the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu from the Red Sea, these volumes are not enough to compensate for the millions of barrels displaced by the Gulf shutdown. Even if the hostilities end quickly, fuel prices could remain high for months as suppliers struggle with damaged infrastructure and paralysed logistical systems.
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McGeever: Wall Street's immunity against the Mideast oil shock is now being tested.
Wall Street was eerily complacent despite the 30% increase in oil prices and the massive sell-off of stocks around world as the war in Middle East intensified. Investors likely bet that the turmoil would have a mild, short-term economic impact. This is similar to?most crises of recent years. Is it a market in action, or is this wishful thinking on the part of investors? Soon we'll find out. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 35% in the past week. This is the biggest weekly increase since U.S. benchmark oil futures were launched in 1983. However, the S&P 500 only fell by 2%. The Nasdaq fell a little over 1%. What is going on? Investors may think that the U.S. has a better chance of coping with an energy shock because it is a net exporter. Some investors may still hold the belief that "U.S. exceptionalalism" is still alive. Many asset managers are waiting for clarity and may be sitting back, especially those who don't want to give up their "fundamentally bullish" outlook on corporate America. Whatever the cause, it is possible that this optimism is either misplaced or reckless. Take a look at this. According to The Kobbeissi Newsletter, a global market newsletter, in the first 41 days of trading 2026 the S&P 500 trading range was only 2.7%. This is the narrowest trading range ever recorded for this period, dating back to 1928. This will now be tested. Brent and WTI both soared above $100 per barrel Monday, putting oil on course for its largest daily gain in decades. Prices rose by more than 25% during Asian trading hours. However, they have since retreated. Stock markets in other countries have also been shook. The benchmark European, Asian, and emerging markets indices that fell 5-7 % last week are now suffering even more losses. Japan's Nikkei index is down 5% more today. Korea's benchmark indices are also falling. Many of these countries, however, are net energy importers. This means that they are more vulnerable to historical spikes in the price of oil and natural gases than the United States. Japan, for instance, imports 90% its energy. 95% of the?oil it imports comes from the Middle East. Can Wall Street remain an outlier? WON'T HISTORY REPEAT ITSSELF? The Middle East conflict is a terrible time for the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve had set a 2% inflation target, but the rate of inflation was at 3%. Payroll data released on Friday revealed that the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs during February. Fed officials cannot ignore the growing stench of stagflation. Wall Street, or more likely bond investors, could condemn Jerome Powell and Kevin Warsh if they take a dovish position in the future, risking letting inflation out of hand. They also risk angering the markets if, instead of a hawkish anti-growth stance that puts price stability first, they adopt a dovish stance. But policy paralysis is also not good. Investors seem to be?banking that history will repeat itself. Most recent bouts of geopolitical turmoil in the world have been accompanied by a few weeks' mild volatility followed by a rapid recovery. Parag Thatte, Binky Chadha and their research at Deutsche Bank show that geopolitical events have had a negative impact on U.S. stocks of 6-8 percent over the next three weeks. The markets recovered these losses in another three weeks. Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer at Raymond James, states that the S&P 500 is higher, on average, one, three and six months after geopolitical events. Analysts at JPMorgan say that a typical scenario for a geopolitical event would be a 5-6% drop in the stock market, followed by a recovery within a couple of weeks. They wrote that macro-strategists tend to ignore geopolitics, and simplify the response by saying: "Just buy the dip." This rule of thumb was true 80% of the times over the last 60 years. They added, "We believe the current episode of the Iran invasion is a scenario where you buy the dip." The drawdowns are getting smaller, and there is barely any dip left to buy as of Friday. Do markets have a better ability to filter out headline "noise" now that computers do the trading? Perhaps the playbook from 'past crises' still holds true. Has complacency taken hold and is it really different this time? Wall Street futures were down on Monday morning, even though the jury has not yet been seated. A verdict could be coming soon. The opinions here are those expressed by Jamie McGeever, who is a columnist at. Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Russell: Compounding errors, narrow self-interest and narrow ROI threaten global fuel shortage
The current conflict in Iran could turn into a global crisis if major countries like the United States and China continue to make miscalculations, and retreat to narrow interests. The price of crude is a major focus of media attention. Brent crude futures, the benchmark, jumped as high as 20%, to $111.04 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022. The price of refined fuels like gasoline, diesel and jet fuel has risen even more than crude oil, but this is still not as alarming to consumers. Jet fuel was the main driver of the explosive increase in refined products prices last week, and Singapore spot prices On March 4, oil reached a record high of $225.44 per barrel, before falling to end the week with a price of $155.82. This price is still 66.7% above the $93.45 per barrel which was the case on February 27th, the day before the United States and Israel began an aerial campaign against Iran. Singapore gasoil (the building block of diesel and jet fuel) reached $123.39 per barrel on 4 March, its highest price since September 2023, and up by 33.5% compared to the closing price on 27 February. The product markets of Asia have begun to reflect a shortage in the supply of fuels essential for keeping economies running. According to commodity analysts Kpler, the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz will result in a reduction of 18 million barrels of crude oil and products per day. This is roughly divided into 14 million bpd of raw crude and 3,000,000 bpd of finished products. The market is still not convinced that Iran will not attack any vessel attempting to pass through the Strait. The Trump administration and Israel's?attack against Iran? made a strategic mistake by closing the Strait of Hormuz. As with most analysts and probably Gulf governments, I assumed that this conflict would be similar to previous flare-ups. It was assumed that everyone would act rationally, and not attack oil production or transportation infrastructure. After all, it's in no one's best interest to stop the flow of crude and products. It turns out that if you say to a religious dictatorship that your goal is regime change, that government will feel little compunction about playing by the old rules. The decision by Iran to attack its Gulf neighbours, which host U.S. bases, has rewritten all previous calculations regarding the conflict. Gulf countries Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are highly dependent on oil, fuel, and liquefied gas exports. Their revenue has been severely cut. Dubai, as one of the Emirates is increasingly dependent on the fact that it is the financial and tourism center for the region. Both sectors are now suffering a major hit due to the ongoing conflict. MULTIPLY MISCALCULATIONS Now, the compounding mistakes of Trump's administration are becoming more apparent. Their stop-gap solutions have not been well received by the market. One thing is to provide insurance and maybe even naval escorts. It's another to guarantee safe passage for hundreds of ships each week. If Iran were to hit a fully loaded crude tanker using a ballistic rocket, the situation would be far worse than it currently is. It's like giving cookies to an elephant. It is nice, but not very effective. Asia's refiners have already begun to scramble for crude oil from suppliers outside of the Strait of Hormuz. What will be the probable outcome of this? The price of crude oil will increase, and as the Strait closes, the region's need for refined products and crude will grow. In order to combat this looming crisis, countries with refinery capacity will cut fuel exports and focus on domestic needs. This will exacerbate the shortage of refined goods. Reports indicate that China's major state-owned refining companies have been ordered to stop exports. Refineries in South Korea and India are cutting back on refinery processing. Beijing must ask itself how long it will be before the impact of the decision to stop supplying refined fuels to countries that import them is felt on its economy. This is yet another miscalculation which will be more expensive than the alternative, namely increasing fuel exports in order to help meet demand. China exports about 600,000 barrels of refined products per day. It is the only major oil producer with spare capacity, and an estimated crude oil stockpile of over 1 billion barrels. The level of stocks means that China could refine oil at the current rate for three years even if imports were to drop to zero. China could, in effect, use its massive stockpiles to boost refinery runs, increase exports, and ease the looming crisis of supply. It would be very profitable and also gain the approval of nations that import fuels. Kpler reports that Australia is Asia’s largest fuel importer. It takes?about 900,00 bpd. Imagine a country that could not meet the demand. This would lead to shortages. The government must prioritise the production of food and its delivery as well as keeping the economy as active as possible. A brave Australian government might tell China that it would not ship any more iron ore due to diesel shortages, unless Beijing provided?refined gasolines. China imports about two thirds of its iron from Australia. Without these flows, its steel industry will be severely curtailed. This would in turn have a devastating effect on manufacturing and construction. This would only happen if countries continue to pursue their narrow, short-term interests and the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed. It is unfortunate that the political leaders are not able to understand the strain they put on the energy system. Their actions show that they only see their country's problems, without understanding that this is a global problem that requires global solutions. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Serbia suspends exports of energy to protect the market from a surge in crude prices due to the Iran war
Serbia has suspended crude oil and fuel product exports in order to protect 'its' market from price spikes and shortages. The energy minister announced this on Monday as global crude oil prices jumped above $119 per barrel due to supply uncertainty caused by the war in Iran. In a press release, Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic handanovic stated that the suspension is effective until March 19. It applies to all modes of transport for exporting?diesel and gasoline, as well as crude oil. Due to the uncertainty surrounding global supply in light of the conflict in Iran, crude oil prices on Monday rose above $119 per barrel for first time since mid-2022. She said that the purpose of the ban was to protect the domestic markets from price increases and shortages caused by global disruptions on the world market. To counter the effects of the surging crude oil price, the government in Croatia introduced fuel prices caps on Monday until 23 March. Andrej Plenkovic, Croatian prime minister, said that without caps the price of diesel would rise by 16 percentage points and reach 1.72 euros per kilogram. The cap set by the government was 1.55 euros/litre. Croatia abolished the?fuel prices caps that were introduced in 2022, when the war in Ukraine threatened global energy supplies. Since February 2022, Serbia has a fuel price cap. To reduce the impact on the local economy of price increases in the global market, the government has set maximum retail prices for Euro Diesel and Euro Premium BMB95?gasoline. Fuel exports from Serbia in 2024, mostly to neighbouring countries, were around 3.6% or $1.26bn of total exports. In 2025 they fell sharply due to U.S. sanction against the only oil refiner in Serbia, owned by Russia, NIS. (Reporting and editing by Aleksandar Vasovic, Ivana Skularac)
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Middle East conflict sticks 2026 consensus trades into reverse
Investors are rethinking popular themes and trades of 2026 due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Global equities have plummeted, the dollar has risen and traders have reduced their bets on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Investors have been preparing for growth this year. "A stagflationary surprise was not part of the plan", said ING's head of global markets Chris Turner. Investors are cautious and still have more to unwind. Here are five popular topics that have been "upended" by the conflict in Middle East. 1/ DOLLAR SHORTS SQUEEZED According to data released by the U.S. regulator of markets, investors had made their biggest bearish bets on the dollar since at least 2021 just last month. The Federal Reserve of the United States is expected to cut rates, but this has not led many people to purchase too much US currency. The dollar's strength has increased since November last year, indicating a flight to safety. Ipek Ozkardeskaya is a senior analyst at Swissquote. She said that the U.S. Dollar emerged as the largest winner of the Middle East Conflict. The U.S. will be more resilient to shocks from energy. Jean-Francois Robin is the head of global analysis at Natixis. He says that the U.S. has become a net energy exporter and only imports 17% of what it needs. This is a record low for 40 years. 2/ REST WORLD EQUITIES SLUMP Global equity markets, which started?2026 with a consensus of "buying equities", have fallen sharply. The MSCI World ex US index dropped abruptly following the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. However, the S&P 500 index remained stable as investors favored the U.S. because its economy is less dependent on energy imports. Lale Akoner is a global market strategist for eToro. She said that if inflation remains sticky due to energy, then "multiples and not earnings" are the weakest link. She said that earlier signs of leadership spreading beyond the United States had faded, as investors returned to U.S. market depth and liquidity. Swissquote's Ozkardeskaya?said that the shock could shift the flows towards energy-rich markets, and?weigh down on energy-dependent countries. This would potentially stop the rotation of the U.S. from Europe and Asia. Emerging Markets Rattled The currencies and stocks of emerging markets performed well at the start of the year. MSCI's index for emerging market currencies rose by 1.9% and EM stocks jumped over 15%. The two indexes fell by 7% and 1,5%, respectively, last week. This was despite the fact that some of the strongest performers in terms of performance year-to date such as South Korea’s Kospi had experienced sharp drops. Goldman Sachs told clients in a Wednesday note that the currencies with the worst performance this week had been amongst those with best performances between January and Februrary. De-risking is strongest in markets that are most vulnerable to Middle East and oil shocks such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, as well last year's top performers like Korea, Brazil, and South Africa. JPMorgan analysts moved EMEA Emerging Market FX from'marketweight to 'underweight on Tuesday. They added Poland's Zloty to the list of currencies they considered 'underweight.' Central and eastern Europe, according to JPMorgan, is especially vulnerable to energy prices. 4/ FED RATES CUTS IN DOUBT Rising energy prices have stoked inflation fears and caused traders to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts from the Fed. Before the start of this 'conflict', the markets expected that there would be a 50% chance for a rate reduction at the June meeting. This would have been the first one under the new chairman. This has been reduced to about 25%. Recent energy prices have prompted traders to'reduce expectations of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. Goldman Sachs stated that "some of the biggest shifts in central bank pricing for 2026 G10 have come from economies which were priced to further ease this year." 5/ BANKS Investors have reassessed the economic impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy costs have fueled fears of broader inflation pressures returning, which could lead to a slowdown in lending and a weakening of credit demand. Although higher interest rates usually support bank margins and can reduce borrowing, new inflation concerns can limit investment. Akoner, from eToro, said that the main risk to be aware of is the credit spreads.
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The price of oil has risen to its highest level since 2022, at $119 or more per barrel due to the war in Iran
The price of oil soared to $119 a barrel on Monday. This is the highest it has been since mid-2022. Some major producers reduced their supply and there were fears that shipping would be disrupted for a long time due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran. Brent crude futures rose $12.77 or 14% to $105.46 per barrel?at 1126 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures (WTI) were up $13.66 or 14% at $103.56. Brent hit $119.50 per barrel in a whirlwind session, its highest-ever price increase on a single date. WTI also reached $119.48. Brent is up 66%, and WTI by 77% from their last close on February 28, before the U.S. began its attacks. According to LSEG's data dating back to the 1980s, Monday's price is comparable to all-time prices of $147 a barrel for contracts signed in 2008. MARKET STRUCTURE INDICATES INTENSE SUPPLY SHORTAGES Brent front-month loading contracts are more expensive than contracts with delivery dates in six months. According to LSEG data dating back to 2004, the price of gold reached a record high of?almost $36 on Monday. This was a far cry from its previous peak of $23 in early March 2022, during the first weeks of the Russia/Ukraine War. This premium is indicative of a "market structure" known as backwardation. It shows traders are experiencing a severe shortage in supply. The Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, which means that only a fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas is able to pass through. The?appointment? of Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed Ali Khamenei in the role of Iran's supreme ruler?also boosted prices. This showed that the hardliners are still in control in Tehran after a week in the conflict with Israel and the U.S. Even if the war ends quickly, consumers and businesses could face weeks or even months of higher fuel costs as suppliers deal with damaged facilities and logistics, and increased risks in shipping. U.S. gas contracts have risen to their highest level since 2022, at $3.22 per gallon. This is at a moment when President Donald Trump told U.S. citizens that the impact of this increase on their cost-of-living would be minimal ahead of November's midterm elections. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that "alternatives, like tapping strategic oil reserves are limited but they are a small drop in the bucket compared to the magnitude of supply disruption if Strait remains 'closed for longer. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader of the U.S. Senate, has asked Trump to release strategic oil reserves. A French government source stated on Monday that he would also bring this up with the Group of Seven. SOURCES SAY SAUDI ARAMCO HAS STARTED CUTTING PRODUCTION. Saudi Aramco is reducing output at two oilfields. Analysts predicted last week that OPEC's heavyweights, including the United Arab Emirates, would have to reduce production as soon as their oil storage ran out. Sources claim that the production of Iraqi crude oil from its southern oilfields is down 70% and that storage capacity has reached maximum. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) also cut oil production on Saturday, but did not specify how much it would reduce. Saudi Aramco has, in rare tenders, offered to divert more than 4,000,000 barrels of Saudi Crude via the Red Sea Port of Yanbu. This is to compensate for the closure of Hormuz. Qatar, a major LNG exporter in the gas market, had already halted production following attacks on key infrastructure. In the UAE's Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a fire started due to falling debris. No injuries were reported. Fuel supply disruptions are exacerbated by refinery interruptions. Bahrain's BAPCO announced a force majeure after a recent attack against its refinery complex. Saudi Arabia shut down its largest oil refinery. (Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi, Sudarshan Vadhan, Rae Wee and Tim Gardner; editing by Sam Holmes Jamie Freed, Muralikumar Aantharaman
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Ghana will introduce new gold royalties on Tuesday, despite opposition from regulators
The head of Ghana's mining regulator said that the country will move ahead with a new gold royalty system on Tuesday, which will?link state revenues to increasing bullion prices. This is despite the opposition from China, other Western governments, and mining executives. Last week, it was reported that the United States and China along with several other Western countries had made a rare effort to convince Ghana to stop the policy. This is part of an 'overall push by African governments for more value to be derived from the surging commodity price. The new royalty rate replaces the flat 5% rate that was previously charged by Africa's largest gold producer. According to the framework examined by, gold miners would pay 12% if gold reached $4,500 an ounce under a sliding-scale system. Gold is currently trading at over $5,000 per ounce. Royalties on lithium will be based on a sliding scale of 5-12%, based upon prices between $1500 and $3200 per metric tonne, while other minerals remain at a flat rate of 5%. A Regulator Says Policy Has Support Isaac Tandoh is the CEO of the Minerals Commission. He said that diplomatic missions raised concerns over the top 12% rate, but had not objected to the policy change. He said that the Ghanaian authorities were not opposed to the review. "They met with us," he stated over the weekend. He said that the missions wanted to see the 12% rate kick in when gold hits $5,000 per ounce. However, Ghanaian authorities refused this proposal. Ghana's proposed sliding-scale royalty regime has also been opposed by the CEOs of world's leading gold miners, who warn that it will choke off future investment. Kenneth Ashigbey, CEO of the Ghana Chamber?of?Mines, said on Sunday that it will "dry up" new projects and output. Tandoh claimed that the sliding scale achieved a balance between boosting state revenue and preserving industry margins. He dismissed concerns Ghana would become uncompetitive by arguing investors are more concerned about regulatory stability rather than marginal cost shifts.
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Aluminium reaches four-year highs due to Middle East shipping disruptions
Aluminum prices reached four-year-highs on Monday, as fears of a prolonged disruption in shipping due to the U.S./Israeli war against Iran fueled concerns over'supplies'. Benchmark aluminium prices were down 1.7% to $3,386 per metric ton by 1105 GMT, from $3,544 earlier. This is the highest price since March 2022, when the metal was used for transport, construction, and packaging, reaching a record of $4,073.50. The Strait of Hormuz, through which aluminium from the Middle East is transported to the U.S.A. and Europe, has been virtually closed due to conflict in the Middle East. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said: "The Europeans will be particularly worried as the Gulf Aluminum Stoppage coincides with Mozal's going offline in this month. "Some producers want to reduce their stock from outside the region to meet their obligations. However, we think this will be difficult due to the high concentration of Russian metal (currently under sanctions) on the exchange and the low levels of inventory elsewhere. . " In December, South32 said its 560,000-metric-ton-per-year capacity Mozal smelter would be placed on care and maintenance from mid-March, after talks ?with utilities and Mozambique's government failed to yield a new power deal. Concerns about supply have turned the contango or discount for the cash aluminium contract three months forward into a premium. . The price of a ton rose to $47.34 on Friday. This is the highest level since February 2022. It was previously around $32 per ton. Prices for 'aluminum along the maturity curve up to 2036 are backwardated. The surge in oil prices has also slowed global growth, and weakened demand for industrial metals. Lead was down by 0.8% at $1,937. Tin fell 3.3% to $48.426. Nickel was down 0.6% at $17.360. (Reporting and editing by Pratima Deai. Mark Potter edited the article.
TSX Futures fall as Middle East turmoil increases inflation concerns
Futures linked to Canada's major stock index fell on Monday, as rising oil prices were a result of escalating tensions between the Middle East and North Africa. This increased inflation fears among investors.
As of 6:50 a.m., March futures for the?S&P/TSX Composite Index were?down 0.92%. ET. Wall Street futures also fell sharply after the Middle East conflict.
Geopolitical tensions increased after Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as its supreme leader. He is the son of Ali Khamenei. This move was seen as proof that Tehran's hardliners are still firmly in control, especially with the conflict between the United States and Israel entering its 10th day.
The market was gripped by fears of prolonged disruptions in shipping and major producers cut their supplies. Oil prices rose to levels last seen in mid-2022. Crude prices were down from their day-highs, however, following reports that G7 Finance Ministers will discuss the possibility of releasing emergency reserves. Traders also reported that Saudi Aramco had offered over 4 million barrels in a rare tender.
Gold prices also suffered from a stronger dollar.
Canada's benchmark index of equity companies led by mining and energy giants has fallen from its record highs reached?last week and has lost almost 3.7% in the first three months of?March due to?worries about higher oil prices adding to inflation pressures.
The monetary policy outlook will be influenced by the U.S. inflation readings, and Canadian job data due later this week.
Brokerage J.P.Morgan has downgraded First Quantum Minerals from "overweight" to "underweight", and Lundin Mining Corp from "neutral" to "underweight".
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(source: Reuters)