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Stocks rise, US yields fall on increased Fed cut expectations
The global stock market rose on Tuesday, and was on track for a third consecutive session of gains. Investors remained confident that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during its December meeting. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Yields fell. Alphabet and Meta Platforms led the gains on Wall Street. Google's parent company hit an intraday high of $328.83, and was up over 1% last as it approached $4 trillion market capitalization. This would make it the only fourth company to achieve this mark. The Information reported on Meta Platforms, which rose 3% and was the largest boost to the S&P 500. Meta Platforms is in negotiations with Google about spending billions of dollars to buy chips from Alphabet's company for use in Google data centers beginning in 2027. Investors also parsed an avalanche of economic data. Some of it was delayed because of the 43-day U.S. shutdown. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in September rose by 0.2% after an unrevised gain of 0.6% in August. This was below the 0.4% increase expected by the economists polled. Separately, the Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3%, after a 0.1% unrevised drop in August. This was expected, because energy prices increased and producers passed some tariffs on. ADP released more recent data Tuesday, indicating that private employers in the United States lost an average of 13500 jobs over the four-week period ending November 8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 546.82, or 1.12%, to 46.995.09; the S&P 500 gained 45.45, or 0.68 %, to 6.750.53; and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 80.42, or 0.35 %, to 22952.43. Since Friday, the market has been anticipating a rate reduction after New York Fed president John Williams stated that interest rates could fall in the short term. Other policymakers have insisted on borrowing costs remaining unchanged for now. These expectations were further boosted on Monday by comments made by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Mary Daly and Fed governor Christopher Waller, who both supported a December rate cut. Bill Merz is the head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, Minneapolis. "We have data this morning with slightly softer employment markets. That should be a major consideration for Fed voting member, and I believe it is." These slightly softened labor markets confirm that this wasn't a one-off blip. The trading volume will likely decrease towards Thanksgiving in the United States on Thursday. Markets will be closed and Friday's session will be abbreviated. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 7.72 points or 0.79% to 990.03, and is now on course for its largest three-day percentage increase in a month. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed up 0.91% on the back of the prospect of Fed rate cuts and optimism about a possible ceasefire in Ukraine. U.S. yields fell after the data glut, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes falling 3.8 basis points to 3.998% and dropping below the 4% level for the first since October 29. The markets are pricing an 84.7% probability of a Fed 25 basis point cut at its meeting in December, which is up from 84.4% the previous session and above the 50.1% a week earlier. In a television interview, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated that the central bank's short-term rate target is to blame for a declining job market. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, dropped 0.48% at 99.72. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.49% to $1.1577. The pound strengthened by 0.77%, to $1.3204, ahead of Britain's budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Traders also rushed into the options markets in order to protect themselves from increased volatility. The yen strengthened by 0.64% to 155.93 dollars per yen but has fallen 1.3% in the last month. Traders are closely monitoring for any signs of Japanese intervention. U.S. crude dropped 1.61% to $57.89 per barrel and Brent fell to $62.40 a barrel, down 1.53 % after Ukraine indicated support for an American-backed framework to end the war with Russia.
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US EPA wants to eliminate tougher limits on soot, but critics warn about health risks
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has asked a federal judge to overturn the 2024 soot limit for factories and power plants. Critics have called this a blatant retreat away from one of its most important public health protections in recent years. In a Monday filing, the EPA sided up with 24 states, led by Kentucky, and industry groups, including the National Association of Manufacturers, who sued the EPA in order to overturn the 2024 standard for fine particulate matters, also known as PM2.5. Nearly 91% coal plants currently in operation already meet the new standard. Soot is linked to cardiovascular disease, asthma and other health problems. Last year, the EPA, under the leadership of President Joe Biden, said that a tighter standard of 9 micrograms of soot per cubic meter could prevent more than 800,000. This would include 2,000 hospitalizations and 4,500 premature death. The EPA, under the administration of President Donald Trump’s Lee Zeldin, did not reply to a question about its future plans. In March, the Trump administration targeted soot among dozens of other regulations that it intended to repeal. The agency announced in a series of press releases that it had taken more than 30 deregulation measures. Rolling back soot limitations would benefit the country's dirtiest power plants. The EPA claims that the Colstrip Power Plant, located in Montana is the only coal plant in the United States without pollution controls. Environmental groups criticized the decision to abandon the stricter EPA standard for soot. Hayden Hashimoto is an attorney with Clean Air Task Force. He said, "EPA's move is a blatant effort to avoid legal requirements of a rollback. In this case, it was for one the most significant actions taken by the agency in recent years to safeguard public health." (Reporting and editing by Howard Goller; Valerie Volcovici)
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Gold gains as US data confirms Fed rate-cut betting
The gold price rose on Tuesday, as traders expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by December due to softer than expected retail sales in the United States. By 12:16 pm EST (1716 GMT), spot gold had risen 0.3% to $4150.09 an ounce. On Monday, the price rose almost 2% after a few U.S. policymakers indicated support for a 3rd rate cut in this year during their meeting on December 9-10. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 1.3%, to $4147 per ounce. Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals, said: "There is renewed hope for a rate cut in December based on recent Fed dovish talk, and these (data) don't seem change that." Retail sales in the United States increased less than anticipated in September. This is a pause after a string of recent strong gains. The Producer Price Index also increased by 2.7% over the past 12 months, which matches the increase in August. CME Group data shows that the markets are pricing in a 83% probability of a Fed cut next month, compared to just 30% last week. They also price in a 64% chance of another drop in borrowing costs for January. Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated on Tuesday that a declining job market requires further rate reductions, echoing the dovish remarks made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller Monday. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well when interest rates are low and there is geopolitical or economic instability. "In the short term, gold prices will continue to be supported by geopolitical turmoil and dovish Fed expectation," said ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista. Silver was unchanged at $51.40 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.4% to 1,550.31, and palladium increased 0.1% to 1396.18. (Reporting from Bengaluru by Pablo Sinha; Additional reporting by Sherin Lizabeth Varghese, Editing by Louise Heavens and Vijay Kishore; Paul Simao, Vijay Kishore)
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JSW, a Polish company, has posted a larger third-quarter loss due to the continued tough market conditions
The Polish coal miner JSW, controlled by the Polish government, reported a net profit of 218.0 million dollars for the third quarter of this year. This is compared to 315.3 million dollars in the same time period last year. The miner has suffered a series of losses in the past quarters as it battles a market with falling coal prices, and a weak demand. This has outpaced the efforts of the company to return to profitability. Why it's important JSW is Europe's leading producer of hard coking coal. JSW is the largest producer of high-quality hard coking coal in the European Union. CONTEXT JSW is implementing a restructuring program in this difficult environment. One of the key proposals under consideration is merging its four main mining centres into two. Other measures include reducing operating and capital expenditure and selling non core assets Polish officials have also taken part in the efforts to save this miner. The Polish Armaments Group could be involved in JSW's revamp, according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk. In November, the State Assets Minister said that Warsaw is in discussions with banks regarding possible loans. By the Numbers JSW reported revenue of 2,29 billion zlotys compared to 2.69 billion reported for the same period last year. The company's EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) for the first 9 months was 2.17 billion, compared to a loss 5.80 billion in 2024. $1 = 3.6525 Zlotys (Reporting and editing by Matt Scuffham).
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OPEC+ is seen as maintaining oil production unchanged and focusing on the capacity debate
Three OPEC+ source said that OPEC+ will likely leave the output levels unchanged during its meeting on Sunday, but focus on a hypothetical topic about how much oil each member can produce to decide on future policies. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, such as Russia. It pumps around half of the world's crude oil. For years, OPEC+ has discussed production capacity figures – or baselines – against which member's output targets are determined. OPEC+ said that ministers will discuss on Sunday a method to determine the maximum production capacity of countries, which can be used to establish baselines for output in 2027. OPEC+ had a technical discussion on the subject in September. According to the International Energy Agency, the group has had difficulty finding a compromise for some members, such as Nigeria. Nigeria wants higher production quotas, but only has limited capacity. The United Arab Emirates, on the other hand still have a lot of spare capacity. This is after they secured a slight increase in their share of OPEC+ production this year. Angola left the group in 2024 due to a disagreement over its production target. One OPEC+-source said that any changes to the quota on Sunday will need to be approved in full by the group. OPEC+ reduced its output for a number of years, until eight members started to increase production in April to regain market share. The reductions peaked in march, totaling 5.85 million barrels a day, or almost 6% of the world's production. Eight members raised their output targets from April to December by about 2.9 million bpd. At their last November meeting, they paused the increases for the first three months amid predictions of an looming surplus. The three sources stated that OPEC+ will not make any changes on Sunday to the first-quarter production policy or to the group-wide output levels for 2026, which were agreed upon at its May meeting. Reporting by Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar and Tomasz Janowski. Editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov & Tomasz Janowski.
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Stocks rise, US yields drop on expectations of Fed cuts
Investors remained hopeful that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates during its December meeting. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar eased. Wall Street's S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones were all lower at the start of trading due to a decline in Nvidia, but the declines were somewhat curbed by Alphabet, parent company of Google. Investors also sorted through a flood of economic data that was delayed by the 43-day U.S. Government shutdown. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in September rose by 0.2% after a 0.6% increase in August. This was below the 0.4% expected by the economists surveyed. Separately, the Labor Department reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3%, after a 0.1% unrevised drop in August. This was expected, given the price of energy goods increased and producers passed some tariffs on. The shutdown did not help the trend of lower consumer spending that was forming. Brian Jacobsen is the chief economist of Annex Wealth Management, Menomonee falls, Wisconsin. He said that inflation has changed much more than consumer spending. The adjustment to the new tariff realities may not be complete, but the price adjustments may be nearer the end rather than the beginning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 133.69, or 0.29% to 46,581.96, while the S&P 500 dropped 8.10, or 0.12% to 6,697.02, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 120.05, or 0.52% to 22,751.96. The trading volume will likely decrease towards Thanksgiving in the United States on Thursday. Markets will be closed on that day and Friday's session will be abbreviated. Alphabet reached an intraday high of $328.60, and was up last about 3%. It is approaching $4 trillion market capitalization. This would make it the only company to achieve this mark. The Information reported on Meta Platforms' talks with Google about spending billions of dollars to buy chips from Alphabet owned company for use in Google data centers beginning in 2027. Since Friday, the market has been gaining momentum after New York Fed president John Williams stated that interest rates could fall in a short time frame. Other policymakers were insisting on borrowing costs remaining unchanged for now. This boosted expectations of a rate reduction. These expectations were boosted on Monday by comments made by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank president Mary Daly and Fed governor Christopher Waller, who both supported a rate cut in December. MSCI's global stock index increased by 1.73 points or 0.18% to 984.04, while the pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.76%. After the influx of data, U.S. yields fell. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 2.5 basis points to 4,011%. The markets are pricing an 84.9% probability of a Fed 25 basis point cut at its meeting in December, which is up from the 84.4% the previous session and above the 50.1% a week earlier. In a television interview, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated that the central bank's short-term rate target is to blame for a declining job market. ADP's latest data, released on Tuesday, showed that private U.S. employers lost an average of 13,500 positions during the four-week period ending November 8. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, dropped 0.41% at 99.79. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.45% to $1.1572. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.41% to 99.79. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.45% to $1.1572, ahead of Britain's budget announcement scheduled for Wednesday. Traders also piled into options markets in order protect themselves from increased volatility. The traders have been watching closely for any signs of a possible Japanese intervention. The yen has strengthened by 0.55% to 156.05 dollars per yen but is still down 1.3% on the month. U.S. crude dropped 2.72% to $57.24 per barrel and Brent to $61.78 a barrel, down 2.5% after reports quoted a U.S. government official as saying that Ukraine agreed to a peaceful deal.
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Iraq pays salaries to Lukoil to maintain its output, sources claim
Three Iraqi energy officials confirmed that the Iraqi government had arranged for the payment of the delayed salaries to local staff working at the Lukoil operated West Qurna-2 Oilfield in order to continue production despite U.S. Sanctions against the Russian company. Qurna-2 is the second largest oil producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia, and accounts for around 0.5% of global supply. According to three government officials who declined to give their names because they were not authorized to speak with the media, the U.S. Sanctions announced on October 22, made it difficult for Lukoil employees to transfer money to Iraq. This forced the government to step in and facilitate the payments. Lukoil used to pay Iraqi employees on the ground via monthly bank transfers. One of the three officials stated that "two months' worth of delayed salaries were paid after government intervention in order to ensure production wouldn't be affected." To avoid any further disruptions, the authorities will also pay December salaries in Iraqi dinar. Lukoil didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Three sources stated that further delays in the payment of salaries could undermine operations on the field where Iraqi staff currently manage production. Sources said that the staff received their salaries on Thursday, after the government intervened, which eased tensions following two months of workers going without pay. Officials said that production at West Qurna-2 is steady and between 460,000 and 480,000 barrels of oil per day. The officials stated that the output from the field was critical to Iraqi exports, as any decrease in production could not be offset by other fields due to current capacity constraints. Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed and Aref Mohammed, Editing by Alex Lawler, Tomaszjanowski and Alex Lawler
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If Jindal's sale proceeds, unions will launch job security discussions at Thyssenkrupp.
The IG Metall union reported that workers representatives met on Tuesday at Thyssenkrupp Steel Europa (TKSE) to begin a process to agree on job security and codetermination if Germany's group is sold to India’s Jindal Steel International. Jindal Steel made an indicative offer for TKSE, Europe’s second largest steelmaker. It is now conducting detailed due diligence in order to determine whether it will launch a binding formal offer for the company. Thyssenkrupp workers in the steel division are determined to keep their influence over corporate decisions if ownership changes. The union said in a press release that "a fair and best-owner contract is intended to provide safety for employees, locations and co-determination, as well as the future of TKSE, in the event of a potential sale to the Jindal Group." IG Metall stated that it had requested management at TKSE and its parent company Thyssenkrupp enter into negotiations in a short time frame. Jindal Steel International was also informed of the process. A spokesman from Thyssenkrupp stated that the company planned to enter into negotiations with IG Metall soon. Jindal Steel International did not respond to a request for comment. (Reporting and writing by Tom Kaeckenhoff, Madeline Chambers, Miranda Murray).
Gold prices remain stable as US data confirms Fed rate cut bets
Gold prices were unchanged on Tuesday, as traders expected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by December due to softer than expected U.S. retail data.
Spot gold
By 01:54 ET (1854 GMT), the price of gold was $4,139.79 an ounce. ET (1854 GMT). On Monday, the price rose by nearly 2% after some U.S. policymakers indicated support for a 3rd rate cut in this year during their meeting on December 9-10.
U.S. Gold Futures
> for December delivery settled 1.1% higher at $4,140 per ounce.
Peter Grant, senior metals analyst at Zaner Metals, said that recent Fed dovishness has revived hopes for a rate cut in December. This (data) does not seem to change this.
Retail sales in the United States increased less than anticipated in September. This is a pause after a recent period of strong gains. The Producer Price Index rose 2.7% over the 12-month period ending in September. It was the same as the increase in August.
CME Group data shows that markets are pricing an 85% probability of a Fed rate reduction next month, compared to only 50% last week. They also place a 65% chance on another cut in borrowing costs for January.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated on Tuesday that a worsening job market requires further rate reductions, echoing the dovish remarks made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller Monday.
Gold that does not yield tends to perform well when interest rates are low and there is geopolitical or economic instability.
"The underlying conditions are ongoing economic uncertainty, geopolitical turbulence, and dovish Fed expectation continue to support the gold price (in near term)," ActivTrades Analyst Ricardo Evangelista stated.
Spot Silver
Platinum fell by 0.3% to $51.21 an ounce.
Palladium rose 0.2%, to $1,546.42
> gained 0.1%, to $1 397.49. (Reporting from Pablo Sinha, Bengaluru. Additional reporting by Sherin-Elizabeth Varghese, Sarah Qureshi and Louise Heavens; Editing by Vijay Kishore, Paul Simao and Louise Heavens)
(source: Reuters)