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New Zealand dollar drops as rate-cut bets are boosted by benign inflation
The New Zealand dollar fell on Monday, while local bonds rallied. Inflation data showed that it was not as bad at first thought. Still tepid price pressures in New Zealand support a rate cut next month. The kiwi fell by 0.3%, to $0.5941. It had fallen 0.8% the previous week. This is now the third week in a row that it has declined. The kiwi dollar is down almost 3% since a peak of $0.6120 nine months ago. Near-term support has now been found at the low of last week of $0.5906. New Zealand's second-quarter inflation rate rose to 2.7%, its highest in a full year, due to rising prices for food, electricity, and streaming services. This was below the 2.8% forecast. The non-tradable price inflation, mainly domestically generated, has continued to decline to 3.7%, from 4%. Citi analysts said in a client note that "CPI inflation is not expected to increase significantly this year, giving the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee reason to be skeptical about a return of annual CPI to the top of target range (of 1-3%)." This would allow the MPC re-starting the easing cycle during the August 20th meeting. The two-year swap rate fell by 6 basis points, to 3.115%. This is the lowest it has been since mid-May. The yields on ten-year government bonds fell 4 basis points to 4.595%. The markets now price in a probability of 75% that the RBNZ is going to cut by 25 basis point in August. This was up from 61% before the data. The Aussie was flat at $0.5510, after losing 1% the previous week, to as low as $0.455. The 65-cent level is a good support. The yen fell 0.3% against the dollar to 96.61, as the Japanese currency jumped a bit after the ruling coalition lost the upper house of parliament in Sunday's election, a result which was predicted by polls. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to release its minutes of the July policy meeting, which may provide some insight into the rare split between policymakers prior to deciding whether or not rates will remain at 3.85%. The markets have priced in a 90% probability that the RBA is going to cut rates this August, after a surprisingly weak jobs report was released last week. On Thursday, Governor Michele Bullock will deliver a speech during the annual fundraising luncheon at the Anika Foundation. Paul Conway, Chief Economist of RBNZ, will speak about the economic impact of tariffs on New Zealand at 11:15am local time Thursday. (Reporting and editing by Lincoln Feast; Stella Qiu).
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Shanghai metals are rising after China pledges to boost industrial growth
After China's Industry Ministry last week promised to stabilize the machinery, automobiles and electrical equipment sector, the most traded metals contracts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased on Monday. Tao Qing said that China would launch action plans to stabilize growth in these industries. Tao said that the move was designed to "improve supply capacity for premium products" in order to prepare the industry to achieve an upgrade of quality and a reasonable growth, measured by quantity. It also promotes an "orderly withdrawal of outdated production capacities". SHFE zinc was the biggest gainer, up 2.69% at 22,900 yuan a ton ($3,190.48), as of 0102 GMT. The contract had hit 22,915 Yuan earlier, its highest level since May 14. SHFE Nickel rose by 1.25%, to 121.750 yuan. Aluminium gained 1.17%, to 20.745 yuan. Lead grew 1.04%, to 16.990 yuan. Copper climbed 0.87%, to 78.990 yuan. Tin advanced 0.56%, to 265,390. Metals analysts at a Beijing futures company commented that "China's Industrial Ministry said was encouraging for metals generally." They added, "Industrials sectors are all relevant to metals." The ministry stated that the plan would cover 10 industries in addition to downstream industries. These include steel, nonferrous materials, petrochemicals, and construction materials. Metals have generally responded positively to news. Those with the most room for price increases will be stronger, said a Shanghai-based futures analyst. After Friday's spike, LME metals fluctuated only slightly on Monday. Zinc rose 0.5% to $2.832.5 per tonne. It reached $2,837 earlier in the session. This was the highest level since April 1. LME aluminium increased 0.15% to 2,633.5. Lead gained 0.13% at $33,490. Nickel added 0.11% at $15,235. While lead decreased 0.1% to $2,000 Copper was unchanged at $9,776.5, after reaching $9,777 last Friday, its highest level since July 8. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other topics. (Reporting by Hongmei Li. Editing by Sumana Niandy.
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Investors continue to monitor the impact of new sanctions against Russia on oil prices.
The oil price barely moved on Monday, as traders watched the impact of European sanctions on Russian supply and rising production from Middle East producers. They also worried about fuel prices as tariffs weigh on global economic growth. Brent crude futures were up 5 cents at $69.33 per barrel by 0040 GMT, after closing 0.35% higher Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 2 cents to $67.36 per barrel after a 0.30% increase in the previous session. The European Union approved Friday the 18th set of sanctions against Russia for the conflict in Ukraine. These included India's Nayara Energy as an exporter who refines oil from Russian crude. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin's spokesperson, said that Russia has developed a certain immunity against Western sanctions. Rosneft - Russia's largest oil producer and owner of Nayara - criticised Sunday the sanctions, calling them unjustified, illegal, and a direct threat to India's energy independence. A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Iran, another oil producer sanctioned, will hold nuclear talks with Britain, France, and Germany in Istanbul on Friday. The three European countries had warned that international sanctions would be reimposed if the negotiations were not resumed. Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell by two last week to 422 - the lowest level since September 2021. Separately U.S. Tariffs on Imports from the European Union will kick in on 1 August, although U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated on Sunday that he is confident the United States can secure a deal with the bloc. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Florence Tan, Reporting)
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BHP exits $2.5 billion Tanzania nickel project, partner Lifezone says
BHP Group chose to sell to Lifezone Metals its stake in the $2.5 billion Kabanga Nickel Project in Tanzania for up to $83 million. Lifezone, a company listed on the NYSE, said that it would acquire BHP’s 17% equity stake in Kabanga Nickel Limited. KNL is the majority owner in the Kabanga Nickel Project located in the northwestern part of Tanzania. In a report released by the company on Friday, development costs were estimated at $2.49billion. The project is expected to produce around 50 000 metric tons per year once it has been fully ramped-up, which will take about six years. The project will be finalized by the end of next year. BHP agreed to invest up to $100 million by 2022 in the nickel mines and processing facilities, if certain conditions are met. BHP didn't respond to an immediate request for comment about why it sold its stake in this project. BHP's view of nickel has changed since the divestment, largely due to a surge in production from Indonesia over the past few years. The company put its Australian Nickel West operation on care and maintain last year because of a low outlook for nickel prices. A decision about the future of these operations is due in early 2027. Lifezone owns now 100% of KNL. KNL in turn holds 84% interest in Tembo Nickel Corporation Limited, the Tanzanian operating firm for the Kabanga Nickel Project. Tanzanian government owns the remaining 16%. Lifezone said that all existing agreements with BHP had been terminated, and it also took full control of 100% offtake of the Kabanga Nickel Project. (Reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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Exports of rare-earth magnets from China to the US grew in June
China's rare earth magnet exports to the United States rose to more than seven-times their level in May, indicating a sharp increase in the flow. Data from the General Administration of Customs on Sunday showed that the number of shipments from China to the United States, the world's biggest producer of rare-earth magnets, increased by 660% in June compared to May. This followed pacts made in June to settle issues relating to shipments of magnets and rare earth minerals to the United States. As part of the agreement, Nvidia will resume sales of H20 AI chips in China. In retaliation to U.S. Tariffs, China, which supplies more than 90% global supply of rare-earth magnets, added several rare-earth items to its list of export restrictions in early April. Due to the long time it took to obtain export licenses, the sharp drop in shipments that followed in April and may had disrupted the global supply chain. Some automakers outside China were forced to stop partial production because of a rare earths scarcity. China exported 3,188 tonnes of rare earth permanent magnetic materials globally in June, an increase of 157.5% compared to 1,238 tons shipped in May. However, the volume in June was still 38.1% below the same month in 2024. Analysts said that the shipment of magnets is likely to increase in July, as more exporters have obtained licenses since June. Exports of rare-earth magnets dropped 18.9% year on year, to 22,319 tonnes in the first half 2025.
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Australia's South32 manganese production recovers after cyclone and beats expectations
South32, a diversified Australian miner, reported on Monday higher manganese ore output in the fourth quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations, after resuming exports from its Australia manganese operation following storm delays. Groote Eylandt mining Co (GEMCO), a project of the company in Australia's Northern Territory, was hit by severe storms early in 2025. It made it difficult to restart production after a tropical-cyclone had damaged vital infrastructure at the site a year earlier. The company released a statement saying that "Australia Manganese successfully recommenced export shipments in the third quarter, marking an important recovery from the effects caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan." The Perth-based company said that its Australia Manganese operations will post losses of between $100 million and $120 million operating earnings by fiscal 2025. This is after a restart following disruptions caused by Tropical Cyclone Megan. For the quarter ending June 30, the world's biggest producer of manganese (used to improve steel quality and strength) produced 1.1 million wet-metric tons of manganese. This is up from 534,000 wmt the year before. Barrenjoey reported that the result was better than the Visible Alpha consensus of 850,000 wmt. The company said it had invested $517 millions in growth capital expenditures at its Arizona-based Hermosa Project during fiscal 2025. The miner, which is diversified, also reported fourth-quarter production of copper at 21,900 tonnes from the Sierra Gorda Mine in which it has a 45% share. South32, in mid-July, had indicated an impairment at its Mozal aluminum smelter located in Mozambique. It said that its production is under review as it hasn't been able secure affordable electricity prices after March 2026. (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler, Lincoln Feast and Adwitiya Shrivastava from Bengaluru.
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UK to hold an inquiry into the Battle of Orgreave, a 40-year-old miners' strike
Britain announced on Monday that it will hold an investigation into the "Battle of Orgreave", which was a violent confrontation in 1984 between police and striking miners at the height of the year-long dispute with Margaret Thatcher’s government. At the Orgreave Coking Plant near Sheffield, northern England, more than 5,000 strikers clashed against a similar amount of riot officers who were drafted from all over the country. The scene was violent and pivotal in the strike against Thatcher’s decision to close the money-losing mines. The miners lost their fight to save the industry. Police have been accused of excessive violence and brutality at Orgreave, on 18 June 1984. Television footage showed officers riding on horses and a miner repeatedly being hit on the head by a baton. Over 120 people were initially injured, and 95 miner arrests and charges of rioting and violent disorder. All charges were later dropped once the evidence was dismissed. For years, campaigners have demanded to know the identity of those responsible for the large deployment of police officers and their tactics as well as the fate of some official documents. Home Secretary Yvette cooper - Britain's Interior Minister whose Labour Party was in opposition during the strike – said that an investigation would be conducted by Pete Wilcox - the Bishop of Sheffield - to discover the truth. She said, "The violent scenes that followed and the subsequent prosecutions raised questions we haven't answered for decades. We must now determine what happened." Kate Flannery of the Orgreave Truth & Justice Campaign said that they had to make sure the inquiry was able to access all police and government documents. She said, "We've waited for this day for a very long time and it is a really good news." (Reporting and editing by Andrew Heavens; Michael Holden)
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RPT-China quietly announces 2025 rare Earth quotas sources say
Sources with knowledge of the issue said that China quietly announced its first 2025 quotas for rare earth mining and melting without the usual public announcement. This is another sign that Beijing is tightening control over this crucial sector. As a barometer of global supply, the quotas serve as a constant reminder of how much rare earths is available. Rare earths are a grouping of 17 elements that are used in electric cars, robots, and missiles. China is the largest producer in the world of these minerals. The government usually issues quotas twice a years to state-owned firms, but this year they were delayed. Sources said that the government only released the first set for the year last month without making the usual public announcement. One of the sources claimed the companies had been told to keep the numbers confidential for security purposes. This is the first time that these details have been reported. The sources did NOT give the quota volume. China has become more sensitive to rare earths, and is willing to assert its control of the supply in its trade talks with the U.S. Beijing added several elements and magnets related to them to its export restrictions list as a retaliation to the U.S. Tariff hikes. This cut off supply, forcing some automakers to temporarily shut down production. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China issued its first set of quotas on its website in the first quarter of each year. The Ministry didn't immediately respond to a fax request for comment about why the information hadn't been made public. China released two mining quotas last year for 270 000 metric tons. The annual growth rate of the supply is expected to slow down to 5.9% in 2023 from 21.4%. In 2024, the smelting quota was divided into two lots, with a total of 254,000 tons. This is an increase of 4.2% over 2023. Beijing used the quotas, which were first introduced in 2006 and the consolidation of corporations to control the industry. Beijing has reduced the number of state-owned companies eligible for quotas. Last year, only China Rare Earth Group, and China Northern Rare Earth Group, High-Tech, were eligible, compared to six before. According to two sources with knowledge of the issue, the quotas have been delayed partly due to a proposal made in February that included imported ore as part of the quota system. This proposal sparked the opposition of companies who rely on imports, and were worried they might lose access to feedstock. Reporting by Staff; Editing by Lewis Jackson & Christian Schmollinger
Profits of Indian jeweller Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri fall due to sluggish market demand
Tribhovandas Zaveri, an Indian jeweller, reported its first profit drop in ten months on Thursday. The surge in bullion prices has led to a higher demand for investment gold instead of jewellery.
The fourth-quarter net profit of the company fell by 24.7%, to 94.9 millions rupees ($1.10million).
The price of gold increased by almost 17% in the first quarter of the year, and 10 grams of 24-carat rose to more than 90,000 rupees (1,052.26 dollars) by the end March.
According to a World Gold Council report, India, which is the second largest gold consumer in the world, saw 7% growth in demand for gold investment. The total amount of gold sold in India in the third quarter jumped to 46,7 tons.
The report stated that the demand for jewellery fell by 25%, to 71.4 tons, which is the lowest figure since 2009.
Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri’s total revenue rose by 4.5% last quarter to 5.29 billion rupies, compared with a 9% increase in the same period a year earlier.
The cost of raw materials increased by 34%, which pushed up expenses 4.8%.
Kalyan Jewellers and Titan, the larger rival of Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri, both posted higher profits for the quarter earlier this month.
The shares of the company closed 1.4% ahead of results. ($1 = 85.9250 Indian rupees) (Reporting by Meenakshi Maidas in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'Souza)
(source: Reuters)