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Mike Dolan: A weak dollar can soften the impact of any oil shock on Europe.
Oil-importing nations will not be able to avoid a blow in the event of a second energy price shock due to Middle East tensions. However, a rare period of dollar weakness can help soften the blow for other countries. The majority of crude oil prices are in U.S. Dollars, so the impact on regions such as Europe is magnified when the price increases during times of dollar strength. The dollar's decline has actually had the opposite impact, reducing the price of oil as a result of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. We're not in a'shock zone' yet, but we are still a long way from it. The dollar-based price of global crude oil has risen by about 14% in the last week. However, they are still well below their January peak and about 7% less than a year ago. The impact on Europe has been more benign, thanks to the euro's 12% increase against the dollar this year. The euro price for Brent crude has fallen by 20% in the last year and is down 12% this year. The greenback's fall is a welcome respite for oil-importing countries, as it helps to soften the blow of soaring oil costs and limit the economic impact. If the dollar continues to fall, this could reduce the relative impact of any new energy price hikes on Europe. This could, in turn support Europe's performance against the United States in this year, and further undermine the American exceptionalism narrative that has fuelled extraordinary portfolio flows into the U.S. over the past few years. The continued dollar weakness, coupled with a new drop in energy prices, would only increase pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates. This is to avoid a significant undershoot to its 2% inflation goal. INCREASINGLY INSTABLE According to UniCredit's Keller the dollar/oil relationship is another example of an economic relationship that has become, "increasingly instabile" this year. The dollar's correlation to stocks, bonds, and commodities has changed as foreign investors who have trillions invested in U.S. bonds and stocks began re-evaluating their dollar exposure due to America's trade conflicts, reworked alliances, and upended institutions. The dollar's loss of its'safe-haven' status in times of stress and uncertainty is most obvious. It fell along with stocks and bonds, during an April that was turbulent. The link between the dollar and oil has become especially unstable. A stronger dollar, all else being equal should lower oil prices because it will reduce demand from non-Americans around the globe due to the additional local currency costs of a barrel. The opposite, theoretically, should also be true. In recent years the opposite was true. A spike in oil price after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered inflation, and steep Federal Reserve rate increases. This was followed by a subsequent drop in oil and inflation, and the start of a Fed easing program. The dollar's movement was closely correlated with the energy price during that period. The dollar index soared by 20% when the oil prices doubled between the mid-2021 and immediate aftermath of the Ukraine Invasion. This amplify the rising costs of energy for Europe. This relationship was broken again after the U.S. elections last year, when the dollar rose initially even though oil prices were falling. The dollar hasn't strengthened as much this month, despite the fact that the correlation was positive after January. This is because the rise in crude oil prices after the Israel/Iran conflict broke out did not coincide with the strengthening of the dollar. The greenback is still hovering near new lows. Relationships are influenced by the background, of course. The primary concern at the moment is that after a decade-long dollar strength, a multiyear unwind will be required as trade, investment and economic imbalances must be corrected. If this is the case, any new oil spike will be less severe for the global economy than it was last time. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Copper nears a one-week low due to stronger dollar and growth concerns
Copper prices fell to a new low Thursday, and other base metals followed suit. The strong dollar and growing global growth concerns - amidst escalating tensions with Iran and Israel - contributed to the decline. As of 0852 GMT the LME's 3-month copper fell 0.5% to $9,608 per kilogram, its lowest since June 13. A stronger U.S. Dollar on the rise due to geopolitical worries tends weaken U.S.-dollar-based prices. John Meyer, an analyst at SP Angel, said that long-only funds were sitting on the sidelines because of elevated risk concerns. He added that the pullback is also due to reduced activity because U.S. traders will be away on Juneteenth Thursday. Oil prices and rising Middle East tensions boosted the dollar, which was also bolstered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautionary tone regarding inflation. Israel attacked a nuclear site in Iran and Iranian missiles struck an Israeli hospital as U.S. president Donald Trump kept the rest of the world guessing whether the U.S. will join Israel to attack Tehran's nuclear sites. Inflation, high oil prices, and war tend to cause supply chain disruptions, raise costs, and reduce investment, slowing down global growth. LME copper inventories Data for Wednesday revealed that the number of tons dropped by 4,025 to 103 325. This was the lowest level in over a year. Copper has been flooding into the United States in recent months. It is now fetching a premium because of the expectation that Trump will impose tariffs. LME Aluminium fell by 1.2% to $2.515.5 Metal industry sources reported that premiums for customers buying aluminum on the physical market of the United States dropped by more than 7% Wednesday, as traders speculated on possible reductions in U.S. tariffs on Canadian shipments. LME tin fell 0.4% at $32,240. Zinc dropped 0.4% at $2,625.5. Lead dipped 0.2% to $1,988.5. Nickel gained 0.6% to $15,140. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group said on Wednesday that the global surplus of zinc decreased in April, while the surplus of lead increased. Ashitha Shivaprasad, Bengaluru. Edited by David Evans.
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French spot prices jump on anticipated heatwave
The French spot electricity price increased sharply on Friday as the demand for power is expected to rise in France because of an anticipated heatwave and in Germany, as the half the country returns to work after the Corpus Christi holidays. At 8:32 GMT, the French baseload contract for Friday had increased by 27.8% to 65.50 Euros per Megawatt Hour (MWH). The German equivalent contract was not traded. Riccardo Paraviero, LSEG analyst, says that the price signal for Friday in Germany is bullish, as residual load will increase significantly with demand expected to rebound and wind supply to plummet. Data compiled by LSEG shows that the German wind energy output will drop to 4.8 GW this Friday. In France, it is estimated to be down 630 Megawatts, to 3.1 GW. The data revealed that German solar power production has increased by 1.2 GW to 21 GW. The French nuclear availability dropped by two percentage points, to 67%. This was due to planned and unplanned shutdowns that took out two reactors. Operator EDF stated in an online message that the Paluel 2 nuclear reactor was shut down early on Thursday morning for a fix to a problem with a fusebox outside of the nuclear area. Data compiled by LSEG shows that power usage in Germany will increase 3 GW following the partial holiday in western Germany, and demand in France will rise 1.3 GW to 47.6 GW. Meteo France, the state forecaster, has issued heatwave alerts. Usually, higher temperatures mean more cooling demand. The German power contract for the year ahead was up by 0.5% to 93.25 Euros/MWh. However, the French baseload contract for 2026 was not traded after it closed at 66.65 Euros/MWh. Benchmark European carbon permits fell 0.1%, to 74.52 Euros per metric ton. A report released by the energy think tank Ember on Thursday showed that Europe's top data centres are facing a major change as developers will move to wherever the connection times are fastest, unless more proactive planning is done for electricity grids. Forrest Crellin reported. Mark Potter (Editing)
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As the Middle East crisis flares, stocks tumble and safe havens benefit
Investors, worried about the United States' potential for a recession, pushed global stocks down and the dollar up on Thursday. During the Israel-Iran war, they sought out safe assets and abandoned riskier ones. Donald Trump, who spoke to reporters in front of the White House Thursday, said, "I might do it." I may or may not do it." The Wall Street Journal reported Trump told his senior aides that he had approved plans for an attack on Iran, but he was waiting to give the final order until Tehran abandoned its nuclear program. The STOXX 600 index fell for the third consecutive day in Europe. It is now down by nearly 2.5% for the week. This will be the biggest weekly decline since April's tariff-induced turmoil. U.S. S&P futures dropped 0.6% despite the fact that most U.S. market, including Wall Street and Treasury Markets, will be closed for a holiday on Thursday. Kyle Rodda is a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. He said, "Market participants are still edgy. He said that speculation was rampant "that the U.S. would intervene. This would be a material escalation, and could invite Iran to retaliate directly against the U.S. This scenario could lead to a regional conflict that would have implications for the global energy supply, and possibly economic growth. The Middle East crude supply shocks have been the main cause of recent market anxiety. They've driven crude oil prices up 11% in one week. Brent crude rose by nearly 1%, to $77.40 per barrel. This is close to the highest price since January. Gold, which usually struggles when the dollar increases, has pared its earlier losses and is now trading at $3,366 per ounce. The dollar rose, but the euro fell by 0.1% to $1.1466. Australian and New Zealand Dollars, both risk-linked currency, were down 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively. CENTRAL BANK POLICY The Federal Reserve sent mixed signals to the markets overnight. To Trump's dismay, policymakers kept rates as expected and maintained projections for two quarter point rate cuts this year. Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, was cautious about future easing, and said at a press conference that he expected "meaningful" inflation as a result Trump's aggressive tariffs. MUFG strategists said that the Fed is "underestimating the weaknesses in the economy which were present before the shock of the tariffs, and specifically, ignoring the cracks in the labor markets that have been evident for years." We maintain that the longer people wait before easing up, the more they might need to do. The markets will be looking for possible catalysts in a series of central bank decisions coming out of Europe. As expected, the Swiss National Bank reduced interest rates to zero. The franc was left to drift, since markets had already priced in an approximate 20% chance of a half point cut. Karsten Junius is the chief economist of J Safran Sarasin. He said that the SNB was not concerned about avoiding the appearance of being a currency manipulation. However, it would be politically prudent to avoid appearing too eager to move the policy rate to the negative. The franc was stable against the dollar at 0.819 and the euro, 0.9395, last. Next up is the Bank of England, which is expected to maintain UK rates at their current levels. Data released on Wednesday revealed that inflation was lower than expected in November, but food prices rose. Policymakers will also be looking at the impact of higher energy costs due to the Israel-Iran conflict. The dollar fell by 0.1% to $1.341.
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S&P says that India's new gold lending rules will reshape the business models of lenders.
S&P Global Ratings warned in a Wednesday note that new rules by India's central banks will force lenders to rethink their underwriting procedures and prepare for higher costs in the near term. The Reserve Bank of India released its final guidelines for gold-backed loans earlier this month. They mandated a move to cash-flow-based credit assessment and tighter monitoring of the loan-to value (LTV). S&P stated that these changes would have the most impact on nonbank lenders who are heavily dependent on gold loan portfolios. The first is that the finance companies will incur upfront costs when they switch to a cash-flow-based assessment of borrowers' creditworthiness, said Shinoy Varghese. Credit analyst at S&P Global Ratings. Lenders must comply with the new standards by April 1, 2026. The new rules give lenders more flexibility when it comes to offering short-term loans for consumption borrowing. However, including interest rates into LTV calculations could reduce actual payments made to borrowers. S&P stated that the biggest changes will be for gold-loan specialist companies like Muthoot Finance, Manappuram Finance, and Manappuram Finance. The report also warns that the gold sector could be more susceptible to sharp price corrections as lenders expand their risk appetite and explore different loan structures. Nishit Navin, Bengaluru. Edited by Nivedita Battacharjee.
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Japan re-signs long-term LNG contracts on AI boom and national energy plan
The emergence of artificial intelligence and the rising cost of cleaner energy, combined with a new energy plan and the rise in costs for cleaner energy, has brought Japan back into the limelight for LNG producers. Japan, which is the second largest LNG importer in the world, has secured long-term deals with Qatar, and other buyers are also securing such agreements. Japan's LNG exports have been falling for over a decade, as the nuclear power plants that were idled following the Fukushima catastrophe began to operate again and renewable energy sources grew. The AI boom will require enormous power consumption from data centres. Japan's 7th Strategic Energy Plan, released in February, identified gas as an important source of energy even after the country achieves its goal of achieving zero net carbon emission by 2050. Yukio KANI, CEO of JERA (Japan's largest power generator and LNG purchaser), said that the data centre boom is changing the curve. "If we need quick solutions for data centers, Japan needs LNG." This is an external change." Kani stated that the rising costs of alternative fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia have also dimmed the prospects for these fuels. He said, "Until two to three years ago, ammonia development was expected to be faster, but we now have paused." "In the last year or two, we have been switching back to LNG." STILL IN THE MIX According to the Japanese energy plan, if Japan meets its target of reducing emissions, it is expected that annual LNG demand will fall from 66 millions tons to 53-61 million tons by 2040. In a scenario with lagging decarbonisation technology, METI predicted that demand would rise to 74 millions tons. Amid price volatility and the risk of supply disruption, the plan calls for public/private cooperation in order to secure long-term fuel contracts. Under Japan's previous decarbonisation-focussed energy plan, gas importers had hesitated to sign long-term contracts. Takashi Uchida is the chairman of Japan Gas Association, and Tokyo Gas, the top city gas supplier. Lachlan Clancy, energy partner of Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer, said: "It is very clear that LNG can play a significant role as a fuel for transition, and now it is firmly in the mix during this investment cycle." According to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators in Japan, Japan has also auctioned new gas-fired capacity to replace coal power plants. In the last two years, 7 gigawatts were awarded. The organisation predicted that the capacity of LNG-fired power plants would increase to 85.75GW by 2034, from 79.98GW in 2024. According to Japan's Energy Plan, power generation is expected to increase between 12% and 22 % from levels in 2023 up until between 1,100 terawatt hours and 1,200 Terawatt Hours by 2040. The International Energy Agency predicts that Japan's data centers will consume 80% more energy, or 15 TWh by 2030. Morgan Stanley predicts that Japan's imports of LNG will reach 78 million tonnes in 2030, as the gas-fired generation of electricity increases amid rising costs for solar and wind energy. 'UNCERTAINTY AHEAD' Since METI's energy plan was released, Osaka Gas has signed a 15 year pact, Kyushu Electric Power announced that it would be signing a long-term contract with Energy Transfer. JERA also inked four deals of 20 years with U.S. companies NextDecade Infrastructure, Cheniere Marketing, and Commonwealth LNG. From late 2022 until early this year, Japanese purchasers announced three contracts longer than 10 years. Masanori Odaka, analyst at Rystad Energy, predicts that more deals will be made soon as utilities look to replace volumes expiring for supply security, and to meet seasonal demand. Last month, it was reported that JERA and Mitsui & Co were in discussions for a long-term supply of electricity from QatarEnergy’s North Field Expansion Project. There is still uncertainty about Japan's LNG demand, mainly because of its inability to meet its carbon neutrality goals and the pace at which it restarts nuclear plants. Importers have increased their trading operations to address this issue and are now pursuing flexible contracts. Tokyo Gas' Uchida said that, with the government providing multiple future scenarios it was no longer possible to give a definitive forecast for energy demand and supply. This highlights the uncertainty in the near future.
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London metals prices ease due to dollar strength and Middle East conflict
London metals prices dropped on Thursday due to a stronger dollar, while markets were focused on the developments in Israel-Iran. As of 0715 GMT, the LME's 3-month copper price was down by 0.52%, at $9,605 a metric ton. LME aluminium fell 0.6% to 2,532, while tin dropped 0.8% at $32,100. Zinc also declined 0.8%, to $2615.5. Lead dipped 0.18% to $1,989.5. Nickel was unchanged at $15,050. Dollar strengthened, buoyed up by demand for safe-haven assets due to the threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East with possible U.S. participation. Greenback prices of commodities are usually more expensive when the dollar is higher. Investors closely followed tensions in the Middle East as U.S. president Donald Trump kept the rest of the world guessing as to whether Washington would join Israel’s bombardment against Iranian nuclear sites. The conflict entered its seventh-day. ANZ stated that in the long term, "any sustained increase in energy prices will likely end up weighing on the copper markets due to the higher costs to producers," Copper supplies are limited, and stocks are low In LME-registered storage warehouses, 107,350 tonnes has dropped 60% since March and is at its lowest level since May 2024. The most traded copper contract on SHFE fell 0.39%, to 78.310 yuan (10,891.36) per ton. SHFE nickel rose 0.46%, to 118.890 yuan per ton, and lead rose 0.53%, to 16,925. Tin fell 0.05%, to 263,300. Aluminium eased 0.24%, to 20,585. Zinc shed 0.59%, to 21,865. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. Data/Events (GMT 1100 UK BOE June Bank Rate ($1 = 7.1901 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and Editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips; Sherry Li, Michele Pek)
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Dalian Iron Ore Gains after Five Days on Firming China Steel Production
The iron ore futures price ended a five-day loss streak on Thursday, amid increased steel production in the world's largest consumer China. However, gains were partly offset by a prolonged crisis on China's real estate market that continued to weigh down on demand prospects. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 698 Yuan ($97.07), up by 0.43%. As of 0703 GMT, the benchmark July Iron Ore traded on Singapore Exchange was up 0.6% at $92.95 per ton. Mysteel, a consultancy, reported that the daily consumption of iron ore fines for sintering increased by 2.4% on a weekly basis to 609 300 tons per day. This is the highest average daily usage in the last seven months. The mills used more feedstock in order to maintain the high production. Hexun Futures, a broker, said that despite the fact that downstream demand has slowed in China, inventories are still increasing. Steelhome data shows that total iron ore stocks across Chinese ports increased by 1.06% in a week to 133.4 millions tons on June 13. Hexun added that the market has become cautious and real estate sales have slowed. Official data released on Monday showed that China's new house prices dropped in May, continuing a stagnation of two years. Goldman Sachs projected late Monday that demand for new homes will remain below the 2017 market peak in the coming years. This suggests a property slump in the second largest economy in the world. Analysts at ANZ say that meaningful growth in steel demand and iron ore consumption is unlikely to occur until the new construction sector picks up. Coking coal and coke, which are used in steelmaking, also fell by 0.13% and 0.1% respectively. The benchmark steel prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained ground. The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in steel benchmarks. $1 = 7.1904 Chinese Yuan (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jab-Phillips, Rashmi aich and Michele Pek)
Metlen, a Greek company, expects to produce 50 tonnes of gallium by 2028. This will be enough to meet EU requirements
Metlen, a Greek energy and metals company, said Thursday that its production of the critical mineral gallium (used in smartphones) will reach 50 tons in 2028, and be sufficient to meet all European Union needs.
This week, the European Commission published a list 47 strategic projects in Greece to increase EU production of materials that it considers crucial for its energy security and transition. Gallium is one of them. It is also used to make high-quality semiconductors.
Evangelos Mytilineos, Metlen’s Chief Executive Officer and President, told journalists that Metlen would produce 50 tons of gallium by 2028 to meet the EU's demand.
China, which controls 98.8% of the refined gallium market, has imposed export restrictions this year.
The Greek company that already processes bauxite plans to invest 300 millions euros in the extraction and purification of gallium. It also hopes to expand into rare-earth metals scandium and germanium, which have widespread military applications.
Commission Vice President Stephane Sejourne The European Commissioner responsible for the definition of the bloc's Industrial Strategy, during a trip to Metlen mines in Greece, stated that the EU would support the project.
Sejourne said to journalists that Greece can play a significant role in critical minerals. (Reporting and editing by David Evans; Lefteris papadamas)
(source: Reuters)