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McGeever: Whisper it, but there's a chance that the US job market has turned a corner.
After the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, there has been a long-standing "low hire/low fire" mentality in the U.S. job market. This is due to a weak labor demand that is offset by dwindling labor supply. This delicate balance could be shifting in the right direction. There is no evidence of a "jobpocalypse", driven by AI, yet. This 'puts the spotlight on the non-farm payrolls May report due on friday, which is expected to show an increase of net 85,000 jobs with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%. This would be an excellent result compared to where the labor markets were at the end last year. In the first four month of this year, monthly job gains averaged around 76,000. This is not a record-breaking number, but it's a significant improvement over the average for last year of less than 10,000. It is also well above the rate needed to keep the unemployment rate down. According to a Federal Reserve document in April, this so-called "breakeven rate" has dropped so dramatically that economists believe it's close to zero. Even if the economy was growing at its potential, payrolls could drop by up to 100,000 in one or two months of this year. In this scenario, 85,000 is a good number. The current average for the year to date and the forecasted 85,000 for May are also impressive. Reasons to be cheerful Recent indicators are also encouraging. This week, the so-called "JOLTS", or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data showed that the number of job openings in April was the highest for two years. The rate of growth was also the fastest in six years. The caveat is that most of these positions were within one industry. Bank of America's economists say that it was the first instance since June last year when the number of vacancies exceeded the unemployed. ADP's private sector payrolls showed an increase of 122,000 jobs in January, the highest growth since last year. ADP's numbers do not include the government sector, and are therefore stronger than national payroll figures since Donald Trump took over the White House. The signals are still positive, and they don't show any signs of AI-related job loss. The revised Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for the fourth quarter of 2013 showed that employment was stronger than originally thought. JPMorgan estimates that employment growth could be revised upwards by at least 20,000 per month in the year to March. This is a significant change from recent downward revisions. BREATHING ROOM Tim Duy is the chief U.S. economic advisor at SGH Macro Advisors. He says that employment cyclical bottomed around summer or fall last year. He says that the labor market has "likely turned durable stronger." Duy points out the JOLTS report from last year as an indicator. More job openings usually lead to increased hiring, which in turn should encourage people to leave their jobs, thereby creating more positions. The labor market would be able to move again, and it would no longer be in its "unusual" and "uncomfortable", as the former Fed chair Jerome Powell described it in April. Kevin Warsh, Powell's successor, may find that the job market is in a good place right now. The employment growth is 'picking up', which reduces the pressure on interest rates to be lowered, but not fast enough to raise inflation concerns. The U.S. is experiencing an increase in inflation pressures, but not because of wages, but due to the energy crisis, tariffs, and other supply-related issues. The average?annual growth in earnings has been declining for the past three years. With inflation now approaching 4%, there is a negative real growth in earnings. In spite of all this, it is still possible that the labor market "low hire, high fire" could turn into "no hiring, 100% fire". There are many reasons to be concerned, including the global energy crisis that is still in progress, the fear of an AI bubble, and the unknowable impact of new technology on the job market. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a global outplacement firm, released figures on Thursday that showed the United States had announced 97,000 job reductions in May, which is the highest number for a month since 2020. There are reasons to be hopeful. Will Friday's report on employment be another? You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Wall Street closes mixed with European stocks, oil and Broadcom dragging tech.
The global stock market edged a little higher in Thursday's volatile trading. European gains were followed by mixed sessions on Wall Street, as investors weighed the impact of a slowdown in AI momentum. Meanwhile, oil prices dropped, due to a "ceasefire" between Israel and Lebanon. The U.S. benchmark S&P 500 recovered from early losses and closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit a new record high. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq dipped lower as technology stocks drove the losses, while healthcare and financial shares led the gains. The Dow gained 1.73%. The S&P 500 gained 0.41%. And the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.09%. Broadcom shares fell more than 12% and dragged semiconductor stocks lower after the chipmaker disappointed investors who bet on a surge in demand for its AI custom chips. The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.2%. The European stock exchanges increased by?0.52%. The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.09%. James St. Aubin is chief investment officer of Ocean Park Asset Management. He said, "We noticed a small weakness in the chips stocks after the disappointing news that came out from Broadcom yesterday." "Today's tech action is emblematic of the fragility of sentiment for stocks that have experienced massive gains over a short time period." CRUDE OIL DIPS Donald Trump's efforts to stop fighting in Lebanon have been undermined after the pro-Iran Hezbollah rejected the new ceasefire, and Israel announced that it would not remove troops from Lebanon. On Wednesday, the Republican-led U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution to prevent Trump from continuing his conflict with Iran. It is only symbolic as the measure must still be approved by the Senate. A two-thirds vote in both chambers would also be required to overturn a veto that was almost certain. "Those headlines probably are net positive in the geopolitical front and the market embraces that for now. We've seen volatility in geopolitical headlines both ways and I'd say that at the margins it's positive. Aubin said. Brent crude fell nearly 3%, settling at $95.03 per barrel. YEN HOVES AROUND 160 Investors were on the lookout for any possible intervention by the government as the Japanese yen hovered around the 160 mark. Minoru Kihara, the Chief Cabinet Secretary in Tokyo, said he expected the central bank to coordinate its moves with the government following BOJ Governor Kazuo?Ueda's fresh hints of an interest rate hike this month. The Japanese yen rose 0.02% to 160.02 dollars per greenback. The euro rose 0.12% to $1.1609. The dollar fell 0.3% against the Swiss Franc to 0.789. The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket?currencies, including the yen, and euro, was unchanged at 99.46. The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were all lower. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 1.4 basis points to 4,477%. Spot gold increased 1.03% to $4477.51 per ounce. Bitcoin dropped 2.53% to $63,265.22.
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Russian-run Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant says Ukraine launched drone attacks
The Russian-installed managers at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant accused?Ukraine of using more than 20 drones on Thursday to attack a nearby thermoelectric plant that was vital for supplying the facility with external power. In the weeks after the February 2022 invasion, Russian forces seized the plant, Europe's biggest with six reactors. Since then, both sides have accused each other of taking military actions that compromise nuclear safety. The statement of management accused the?Ukraine military of staging "multiple attacks using heavy unmanned aircraft" in an area near the plant. It said that "more than 20 drone attacks have been recorded." The attack on the thermal plant was "critically important energy infrastructure" that ensures Ferrosplavnaya-1's operation. "Such attacks are a direct threat to reliability of power supply at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant and demonstrate once again disregard for principles of nuclear safety." Ukraine has not commented on the Russian allegations. The plant does not generate electricity, but it needs external power to prevent the nuclear fuel from overheating. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog, is trying to negotiate a ceasefire to repair the damaged line. The IAEA said that it was informed of the incident by the Russian management at the station and that its permanent?based monitors saw light?smoke near the 'thermal plant. Rafael Grossi is the director general of IAEA. He called for an end to all attacks immediately to prevent a prolonged loss of power. (Reporting and editing by Deepa Babyington, Ron Popeski)
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US screwworm case alerts ranchers and boosts cattle prices
U.S. futures for feeder cattle surged Thursday as traders and ranchers were alerted to the possibility of more cases of a parasitic fly that eats warm blooded animals alive. U.S. agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed to reporters that there had been no more detections of New World Screwworm in the region around the case in La Pryor in Texas. The federal government confirmed this late on Wednesday. This case is a major blow for U.S. ranchers, who were bracing themselves for an outbreak of domestic screwworm as the pest has been moving northward through Mexico in the last year. Rollins told a press conference that "we've received a few (reports)." "Certainly, none looked like the one that we saw yesterday in La Pryor. But we are pursuing that." Rollins had said that the U.S. Department of Agriculture thought it could contain this case, which is the first to occur in Texas since 1966. Further infestations may further reduce the size of the US. The cattle herd is now the smallest it has been in 75 years. Screwworms are parasitic fly females that lay their eggs on open wounds or mucous membranes of warm-blooded animals. Once the eggs hatch into larvae, hundreds of screwworms will use their sharp teeth to burrow through flesh and eventually kill their host. "The New World screwworm sounds like a monster from a horror film, but it is real," said Nate Sheets. He was a Republican candidate for Texas Agriculture Commissioner. "It's an agricultural emergency." VOLATILE CASTE PRICES Chicago Mercantile Exchange traders initially reduced the price of futures for feeder cattle, fearing that the infestation would reduce consumer appetite for beef. Futures rallied by over 3%, quickly turning higher. Experts said that the detection could threaten Texas' livestock industry. The estimated economic losses of up to $1.8 Billion in Texas could occur if the screwworm spreads. Matt Wiegand is a commodity broker at FuturesOne. "Until we have a significant impact on consumer demand, the (cattle numbers) are still tight." U.S. beef supplies have been dwindling after ranchers were forced to reduce their herds by a drought that lasted for years. Meatpackers such as JBS Cargill, and Tyson Foods are struggling to find enough animals to process in their beef plants. The Meat Institute, representing processors, has urged USDA, after it announced that the agency had frozen animal movements in the area around the case, to allow "low-risk" livestock shipments for slaughter. The institute stated that such shipments may include animals being transported directly to slaughter from farms which are not infected. USDA has spent millions to try and keep the pest out, and has been blocking imports of Mexican cattle for over a year. Rollins stated that U.S. ports will continue to be closed for Mexican livestock until further notice. According to Lee Haines, associate research professor of biology at the University of Notre Dame, Indiana, the infestation indicates screwworm flies have already arrived 'in the U.S. Haines stated that "the burden falls on farmers who have to monitor animals spread across vast rangelands, which are often left unattended for days at time."
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Trump announces coal support plan worth $700 Million Using Emergency Powers
On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced that he would use emergency powers from the Cold War to send nearly $700,000,000 to the U.S. Coal Industry to Asia to ship the carbon-intensive fuel and to power companies in the United States to burn it. Trump intends to use the Defense Production Act (a 1950 law that granted presidents broad authority to oversee industries deemed crucial to national security) to finance upgrades to more than a dozen coal-fired plants, assist in financing two new coal plants, and support construction of an West Coast coal export facility. The Trump administration has framed the energy policy as an issue of national security to ensure that electricity is available for AI data centres and reduce dependence on other countries. POLLUTION? CONCERNS Environmentalists condemned the plan. Patrick Drupp of the Sierra Club, who is the climate policy director, said that the plan was a taxpayer-funded subsidy for a polluting business. He also stated that the group would challenge the initiative in court. Drupp stated that it was "disgusting and reprehensible" that President Obama gave away taxpayer money to build expensive and deadly coal plants. Rich Nolan said that the National Mining Association's CEO would use the funds to increase production of a fuel which helps protect consumers from energy price volatility and supports the rising demand for electricity. Nolan stated that "the administration supports that strategy by taking decisive actions at home to ensure upgrades are made to existing energy assets, and in our ports to make sure that U.S. Coal can meet the world's needs." In 1990, coal accounted for more than half of the U.S.' electricity production. Today, it accounts for less than one fifth as utilities have shifted to cheaper natural gas, and renewable energy sources. Trump, despite rolling back environmental regulation on the industry has not been able to increase the number of coal miners. According to the St. Louis Fed, the number of coal miners in the United States has dropped from 51,500 last year?to 39,800 this past year. The official stated that more than half of the funds would be used for upgrading 13 coal-fired plants. Additional money will also go to coal facilities in Alaska and Maryland, as well as the West Gateway coal export terminal, which has been long planned in Northern California.
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Environmental concerns are a challenge for Equinix to Cape Town data centers
The plan of U.S. listed Equinix, to build two data centers in Cape Town, should not be approved unless its full disclosure regarding?water, electricity and environmental impact is made, according to a formal complaint lodged with?city planners. Housing Assembly (HA), a South African social movement that represents more than 20 communities, and UK non profit Foxglove claim the application can't be approved without key information for officials to evaluate the project. Equinix has said that it did not submit any planning applications for Cape Town. The company already operates an energy-only site in Johannesburg. We can confirm that the purchase of land in Cape Town has been completed. "At this time, no planning application has been filed in relation to the site," said it in an email statement as a?response. Equinix stated that "should we decide to move forward with any development we will be fully transparent, and provide detailed information?in a timely fashion? to all stakeholders relevant." Equinix says it works with local utilities and government leaders to understand the local priorities, and inform its decisions. Technology?firms are racing to increase computing power around the world, but they're facing local opposition. Communities are concerned about rising power bills, noise, pollution, and water stress. Rosa Curling said, "There is simply not enough data to make a decision about a project this size, as there are no details on water usage, emissions, electricity demands, diesel generators or air pollution. According to the document, the project involves two large data centers in Cape Town. The combined power consumption is projected to be up to 160 Megawatts. However, questions remain about the type of backup power generation that the site will have. Curling added that the water requirements of the site were also important, given Cape Town's history with water scarcity. Cape Town experienced a severe water shortage in 2017-2018. This is known as the "Day Zero" crisis. The city had to shut down the taps of most households because the reservoirs were dangerously low. Saadiyah kwada, an lawyer at the Legal Resources Centre, a non-profit organization in Cape Town, said: "There is a rush to build data centres without properly considering the impacts." King David Golf Club and Equinix, owners of King Air Industria (the development site on which the data centers are to be built), have 30 days in which to respond. The City then has 180 days to decide. KAI declined comment. Alderman Eddie Andrews, Cape Town's Deputy Mayor and Mayoral Committee Member for Spatial Planning and ?Environment, said: "The City of Cape Town still needs ?to evaluate the application together with all comments and objections ?received from internal and external departments/interested and affected parties. He added, "The City is unable to comment further because this application is being processed." The South African government pledged on Wednesday to increase investment in digital infrastructure including data centres through tax incentives, policy reforms and regulatory barriers. (Editing by Simon Jessop and Kirsten Donovan)
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Putin dodges the question of whether he'll stay in power through 2036
Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, avoided a question about whether he will stay in power until 2036. He said that it was "too early" to discuss this issue. Putin was asked by senior editors from news agencies in St. Petersburg if he planned to serve until 2036, and if he thought he had enough stamina and good health to do so. He replied: "Only God can tell if I, you and everyone gathered here have enough health to survive until tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. And even more, we need to accomplish some of the tasks that we face to reach the goals we set for ourselves." Putin, who has been in power since 1999 as president or prime minster, claimed that the constitution allows him to run in 2030, and if he wins, serve another term up until 2036. "In fact, the Constitution allows me to run in 2030. But I think it is?too soon?to discuss it. It's still very early. Right now, I don't even think about it. I'm completely honest. Putin said, "I don't think about it at all." The country is facing a number of pressing and large-scale issues. "They need to be solved without thinking about it, but instead thinking about the future for Russia."
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Nigeria's Dangote Refinery Tops 700,000 Barrels Per Day In Test
The Nigerian Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which is owned by Dangote Group, has increased its crude processing capacity to 700,000 barrels a day during a test conducted by the process licensors. This exceeds the nameplate capacity, 650,000 bpd, and marks a significant milestone in operations, according to a statement released on Thursday. Devakumar?Edwin, vice-president for oil and?gas at Dangote Industries said that the ramp-up is part of a larger plan to expand the capacity to 1.4 million bpd in 30 months. This level could make the facility among the largest globally. The refinery owned by billionaire Aliko. Dangote began fuel production in the year 2024. Since then, it has increased output of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. It exports products to Saudi Arabia and the United States, as well as to African countries, such as the United Kingdom and France. Dangote Refinery is a major global supplier, despite supply disruptions caused by Middle East tensions. African buyers are looking for more reliable suppliers. Kpler data shows that exports rose to 353,000 barrels of oil per day from 168,000 in February. About half of this volume was exported to other African nations. Analysts warn that it is still too early to determine if the surge represents a shift in trade patterns. This is especially true after exports dropped to 285,000 barrels per day in May. Mick Strautmann is a market analyst at Vortexa. He said: "We are seeing a shift towards regional barrels with Dangote increasing its share in Africa's seaborne imports of fuel." David Bird, the Chief Executive of the refinery, said that it has a surplus of jet fuel and can supply international markets. The rising production is attracting increasing interest from international crude traders and suppliers. (Reporting and editing by Matthew Lewis in Lagos, Isaac Anyaogu)
Goldman Sachs predicts surge in US net copper imports
Goldman Sachs stated in a Tuesday note that U.S. copper net imports may increase by 50 to 100 percent in the next few months, due to the higher U.S. price before the Trump Administration's planned tariffs.
After the U.S. started an initiative, the May 2025 U.S. Copper price currently trades at $756 per ton above the global benchmark London Metal Exchange price (LME).
investigation
The bank said it would look into possible tariffs for copper imports in order to rebuild U.S. manufacturing.
Goldman Sachs predicts that a 25% duty on copper imports will be implemented by the year's end, causing a surge in imports, and an increase of 200,000 to 300,000 tons in U.S. inventories at the end the third quarter.
Bank said that the higher U.S. prices is expected to increase U.S. Copper stocks from 95,000 to 300,000 to 400,000 tons by the third quarter. The bank said that this would represent 45-60% global inventories and leave very low inventories in other countries.
Goldman Sachs forecasts an 188,000-ton global deficit on the copper market in 2025, due to robust electrification demands, China's stimulus and a slower growth in mine supply, which is expected to be concentrated during the second half due to seasonal factors.
Goldman Sachs stated that they "maintain our forecast" of the LME 3-month average price at $10,200/t by 2024 Q3. They see the impact primarily in the timespreads.
We forecast a maximum backwardation of $350/t LME from Sep to Dec, based upon the LME backwardation reaching a level which will close the U.S. Import Arbitrage.
As of 1505 GMT, the price for three-month copper was $9,623.5 per metric ton on the LME. (Reporting and editing by Margueritachoy in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)