Latest News

Goldman Sachs predicts surge in US net copper imports

Goldman Sachs predicts surge in US net copper imports

Goldman Sachs stated in a Tuesday note that U.S. copper net imports may increase by 50 to 100 percent in the next few months, due to the higher U.S. price before the Trump Administration's planned tariffs.

After the U.S. started an initiative, the May 2025 U.S. Copper price currently trades at $756 per ton above the global benchmark London Metal Exchange price (LME).

investigation

The bank said it would look into possible tariffs for copper imports in order to rebuild U.S. manufacturing.

Goldman Sachs predicts that a 25% duty on copper imports will be implemented by the year's end, causing a surge in imports, and an increase of 200,000 to 300,000 tons in U.S. inventories at the end the third quarter.

Bank said that the higher U.S. prices is expected to increase U.S. Copper stocks from 95,000 to 300,000 to 400,000 tons by the third quarter. The bank said that this would represent 45-60% global inventories and leave very low inventories in other countries.

Goldman Sachs forecasts an 188,000-ton global deficit on the copper market in 2025, due to robust electrification demands, China's stimulus and a slower growth in mine supply, which is expected to be concentrated during the second half due to seasonal factors.

Goldman Sachs stated that they "maintain our forecast" of the LME 3-month average price at $10,200/t by 2024 Q3. They see the impact primarily in the timespreads.

We forecast a maximum backwardation of $350/t LME from Sep to Dec, based upon the LME backwardation reaching a level which will close the U.S. Import Arbitrage.

As of 1505 GMT, the price for three-month copper was $9,623.5 per metric ton on the LME. (Reporting and editing by Margueritachoy in Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)