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Copper hits three-month record high due to stronger China data
The copper price hit a three-month high on Tuesday, as traders said that a stronger dollar and the improved manufacturing data in China helped to boost demand. The benchmark copper price on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.7% to $9,935 per metric tonne at 1008 GMT, from $9,984 earlier. This is the highest level since March 27. A private sector survey revealed that China's factory activities expanded in June due to an increase in orders, which lifted production after contracting in the previous month. The lower dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of currencies other than the U.S. dollar, and this could increase demand. Funds that trade using numerical models to generate buy and sell signals use this relationship. The low inventories also helped. Copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses At 91,250 tonnes have fallen 66% since mid-February. Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) are at 81.550 tons Since early March, the number of people who are enrolled in school has also dropped by 66%. In a note, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analysts said that "overall availability is tight on both exchanges. This reinforces the strong demand and causes backwardation." Backwardation refers to the premium paid for contracts with shorter maturities over those that are closer. The premium for cash copper contracts on the LME over the next three months Last week, the price of a ton was $319. This is its highest level since October 22. The price has dropped to $120 per ton due to large copper deliveries. LME data indicates that 1,500 tonnes were delivered to the warehouses of Gwangyang, South Korea on Monday . But cancelled warrants and metal that is earmarked for shipment indicate that another 31,975 tonnes are due to leave the LME. LME stocks are depleted due to the threat by President Donald Trump of tariffs against U.S. imports of copper. This has pushed prices up on COMEX and created a premium over LME prices. Other metals saw little change at $2.044, with lead unchanged. Tin rose 0.4%, to $33,850, and nickel fell 0.2%, to $15185.
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US Supreme Court deals blows to EPA, environmental protections
In a series recent rulings, the U.S. Supreme Court has dealt a blow to environmental interests. This includes limiting the authority of Environmental Protection Agency and relaxing environmental impact study requirements for proposed projects. While the Supreme Court's nine-month term was dominated by cases concerning President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and other issues, it also continued its long-standing trend of reducing federal protections for environmental in several rulings which could be a boon to businesses. Wendy Park, a lawyer for the Center for Biological Diversity, an environmentalist group, stated that these rulings "dealt enormous blows to the public health and safety and the environment." Park continued, "We will all suffer from unhealthy air, less clean water and climate warming." Park's group lost the biggest environmental case of the last decade, involving a proposed Utah railroad intended to transport crude oils. The conservative Justice Brett Kavanaugh authored the 8-0 decision, which allowed federal agencies to scale back their environmental review of projects that they regulate. This boosted the project. The decision narrowed federal agency's environmental obligations under the 1970 federal law, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), passed by Congress in an effort to prevent environmental harms from large projects. Daniel Farber, University of California Berkeley law professor, said that the NEPA case could be the most dangerous to a major change of the law, depending on how lower courts interpret the ruling. Farber said that "the other decisions continue the process of eroding federal protection of environment." The big concern is the fact that this adds to a trend in favor of environmental protection at the Supreme Court. Seven Utah counties, along with an infrastructure investment group, have proposed to build an 88-mile-long (142-km-long) railway in northeastern Utah. The line would connect the sparsely-populated Uinta basin region to an established freight rail network. The National Environmental Policy Act requires that agencies evaluate the "reasonably predictable" effects of any project. Kavanaugh wrote in his article that agencies should only take into account the environmental effects of the project under consideration and not "effects from future potential projects or geographically separated projects." Kavanaugh said that lower courts should give agencies "substantial consideration" in determining the scope of such assessments. Park stated that "agencies approving pipelines or oil railroads now have more latitude when it comes to informing and involving communities about harms", but the court gives agencies responsible for protecting us against those harms more scrutiny. Kavanaugh's opinion was backed by four conservative justices. The three liberal justices also weighed in on the case. Justice Neil Gorsuch was not involved in this case. Professor James Coleman of the University of Minnesota Law School said that the ruling could be a turning-point after lower courts have been using the National Environmental Policy Act for the past 50 years to "raise higher and higher barriers to new infrastructure." Coleman said that the ruling sent a signal to lower courts to defer to agencies who exercise discretion granted by Congress. Coleman stated that the court had demanded "a course correction" from lower courts. The court emphasized how courts' refusal to defer to agencies' environmental reviews is holding up important infrastructure projects. Coleman said that it remains to be determined whether lower courts will accept the course correction. REINING IN EPA In recent years, the Supreme Court has, with its conservative majority of 6-3, taken a sceptical view towards the broad powers granted to federal regulatory agencies. It has also restricted the power of the EPA. It blocked the EPA’s “Good Neighbor” rule in 2024. The rule was designed to reduce ozone emission that could worsen air quality in neighboring states. In 2023 it weakened the EPA's ability to protect wetlands, and combat water pollution. In 2022 it imposed limitations on the EPA’s authority to reduce carbon emissions from coal and gas fired power plants under the Clean Air Act. In March, the court again confined the EPA in a case involving a permit issued by the EPA for a wastewater-treatment facility owned and operated by the City of San Francisco. The facility empties into Pacific Ocean. The city sued the EPA to contest certain restrictions included in the permit. The ruling by conservative Justice Samuel Alito was 5-4. It found that the EPA exceeded its authority in accordance with the Clean Water Act, an anti-pollution legislation, by imposing too vague requirements to permit holders relating to the water quality standards of the receiving body. The three liberal justices and conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett dissented. Howard University School of Law Professor Carlton Waterhouse stated that the ruling stripped the EPA of a commonly used mechanism to restrict the discharge of contaminants into federally regulated water at the level required for such waters meet their designated uses. Waterhouse stated that the court's decision was a setback for both the EPA and those of us who are in need of clean water. Waterhouse said that the EPA, for example, lost an important tool to ensure that the waters are clean enough to allow these activities to continue. Waterhouse, a former EPA official under Democratic President Joe Biden, warned that some areas of the United States may experience deteriorated water quality as a result of a "workaround" to protect state water standards without a tool they've used for decades. In a ruling written by Kavanaugh, 7-2, in June, the Justices sided with the fuel producers who had opposed California's vehicle emission standards and electric cars, under a federal law on air pollution. They agreed that their legal challenge against the mandates shouldn't have been dismissed. The court overturned the decision of a lower-court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by a Valero Energy affiliate and groups representing the fuel industry. The lower court concluded that plaintiffs lacked legal standing to challenge a Biden era EPA decision allowing California to set its own regulation. Waterhouse stated that it was not surprising to allow these parties into the lawsuit. The court has expanded standing for business in the past.
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Sources say that the EU wants to see early relief in key sectors of any US trade agreement
EU diplomats said that the EU wants to see immediate relief on tariffs for key sectors in any deal reached with the United States by the deadline of July 9. However, even the best-case scenario would include some degree of asymmetry. This week, the European Commission, which coordinates EU Trade Policy, insisted on three points at Washington, even though it accepted that the U.S. Base Tariff of 10% was unavoidable. Both sides are working toward an agreement in principal, and the final details will be worked out later. EU diplomats said that in a brief negotiation document Washington sent to Brussels last week, it only stated what the Trump administration expected from Brussels, without making any concessions. Brussels is looking for a deal that will return tariffs at pre-Trump levels, or zero-for-zero in the case of a previous tariff. This includes lower tariffs on alcoholic beverages, medical devices and other products that the U.S. imposes a 10% tariff. The EU wants to negotiate a deal that covers commercial aircraft, parts and pharmaceuticals as well as semiconductors. These are all sectors where the U.S. has been investigating but have not yet imposed additional duties. Trump announced in June that the pharma duty announcement would be made "very soon". The diplomats stated that the EU also wants President Donald Trump to make a concession on the 25% tariff placed on automobiles and auto parts. They also want an immediate reduction in the U.S. import tariffs on steel and aluminum, which Trump increased from 50% to 75% in June. One diplomat stated that cars are a "redline" for the EU. Brussels and Washington, however, have different goals. Trump wants to revive U.S. automobile production, while Brussels wants markets opened for its sector which is suffering from high energy costs and Chinese competition. Thirdly, EU officials want tariff relief to begin as soon as a preliminary agreement is reached. They do not want to wait weeks or even months for the final agreement. Sources said that a number of EU members believed a deal lacking this element would be unacceptable. Later this week, EU trade chief Maros Sfcovic will travel to Washington with the head of the cabinet for President Bjoern Siebert to try and reach an agreement. Trump has suspended tariff increases until July 9 to reach agreements with global trading partners. He said that countries without a deal will see the 10% U.S. base tariffs on their goods increase to as high as 50%. The EU's rate is 20%. Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on all EU imports. The diplomats reported that a week before the deadline the Commission informed its 27 members of the possibility of all outcomes, including a framework agreement or higher U.S. Tariffs for additional sectors. If the goal of a reduction in tariffs upfront does not materialize, Brussels may have to decide between accepting significant imbalances and retaliating with countermeasures. A deadline extension could also be an option. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury secretary, said Monday that any extension of deadlines would be Trump's choice. Deals must be completed by September 1. Reporting by Julia Payne, Philip Blenkinsop. Mark Potter edited the article.
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Gold prices rise on weaker dollar, US tariffs and fiscal uncertainty
The gold price rose by over 1% Tuesday, as investors sought safe haven assets due to a weaker US dollar and concerns over the fiscal outlook of the United States. As of 0824 GMT spot gold rose by 1.1% to $3,339.20 an ounce. U.S. futures gold increased by 1.3% to $3352.00. Gold prices fell for overseas buyers as the U.S. Dollar dropped to its lowest level in early 2022. The precious metals' safe-haven appeal has been boosted by worries over the U.S. financial outlook and ongoing uncertainty related to tariffs, as the Trump Administration keeps all options open ahead of the looming deadline in July," said Ricardo Evangelista. Senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades. "I expect the prices to rise in the near-term, attracting more buying interest when they reach $3,350. The next significant resistance level is around $3,370." On Monday, President Donald Trump expressed his frustration over the U.S.-Japan negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries that they could face a sharp increase in tariffs as a deadline of July 9 approaches. The markets are also focusing on the vote for Trump's tax-cutting and spending bill. This adds to an already uncertain market climate. Trump has continued to press the Federal Reserve for a rate cut. He sent Fed Chair Jerome Powell an international list of interest rates along with handwritten notes that suggested the U.S. should be between Japan's interest rate of 0.5% and Denmark interest rate of 1.75%. Trump's tirade against Powell and the Fed has caused investor concerns about the central banks' credibility and independence. The markets will be watching the ADP Employment Report on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls report on Thursday for any clues about the Fed's policy. Gold tends to do well when interest rates are low and is seen as an investment that can be relied upon during economic uncertainties. Silver spot rose 0.6%, to $36.30 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.3%, to $1334.67. Palladium rose 0.7%, to $1104.86. (Reporting and editing by Emelia Sithole Matarise in Bengaluru, Anushree mukherjee from Bengaluru)
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Iron ore prices fall on weak Chinese demand
Iron ore futures fell on Tuesday as disappointing factory data, and the persistent problems in China's property sector dampened sentiment. The bearish outlook was boosted by warnings from Australian authorities about lower prices and the expectation of a softer season demand. The September contract for iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended 1.32% down at 708.5 Yuan ($98.92). As of 0533 GMT, the benchmark August iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell by 0.98% to $93 per ton. China's manufacturing sector shrank in June for the third consecutive month, but at a slightly slower pace. The business climate remains subdued. ANZ stated that the continued weakness of China's real estate sector, and a report by the Australian government warning about lower prices because of a weak outlook, further weighed down sentiment. China Metallurgical News reported last week that Jiang Wei was the secretary general of China Iron and Steel Association and advised authorities to limit billet exports. The announcement came after shipments of semi-finished products, including steel semi-finished products, surged in the first half of this year. Customs data shows that China's steel exports have more than tripled during the first five months in 2025. The steel association has warned that full-year shipments may exceed 10 million tonnes. The Chinese consultancy Mysteel reported that the total volume of iron ore shipped to destinations worldwide from Australia and Brazil, two top producers, has fallen 7.4% between June 23-29. This is a reversal of the previous week's increase. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, also fell on the DCE. They lost 3.32% each and 2.46% respectively. The benchmarks for steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have mostly fallen. Rebar fell 0.2%, while wire rod and stainless steel both lost 0.87%. Hot-rolled coils gained 0.06%.
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India's April to May finished steel imports fell 27.6% on an annual basis as China and Japan shipments declined
The provisional data from the government, reviewed on Tuesday, showed that India's imports of finished steel fell by 27.6% during the first two-month period of the new financial year, which began in April. This was due to a decline in shipments coming from China and Japan. The data shows that India, which is the second largest crude steel producer in the world, imported 0.9 millions metric tons (MT) of finished steel between April and May. Shipments from China dropped by 47.7%, while those from Japan fell by 65.6% compared to a year earlier. The data revealed that China shipped 0.2 million metric tonnes of finished steel to India in the past two months. Japan also sent 0.1 million tons. India implemented a temporary 12% tariff on certain steel imports in April. This is known locally as a "safeguard duty" and was imposed to stop a rush of cheap shipments, primarily from China. The data shows that South Korea was India's top exporter of finished steel during April-May. Shipments increased 8.2%, to 0.4 millions metric tons. The data revealed that India's largest imports were hot-rolled coils and strips. The data revealed that India was a net buyer of finished steel in the period. Exports fell 18.1% on an annual basis to 0.8 millions metric tons. India's largest exports during this period were galvanised coils or sheets, plain or corrugated. The data revealed that Belgium was India's largest export market. Shipments increased 12.4% to 0,15 million metric tonnes. The data shows that shipments to Italy fell by 53.7% while those to Nepal, Spain and other countries increased. India's consumption of finished steel reached 25,1 million metric tonnes in April-May. This is an increase of 7.1% compared to a year ago. The data revealed that crude steel production increased 9.5%, to 26.9 millions metric tons.
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Investors watch US trade negotiations as copper prices rise on a weaker dollar
The London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange saw copper prices rise on Tuesday, boosted by a lower dollar. However, uncertainty about U.S. Trade talks with major trading partners continued. LME copper for three months rose 0.94%, to $9,961.5 per ton, at 0703 GMT. It had previously touched $9,984, its highest level since March 27. The SHFE's most-traded contract for copper gained 1.09%, to 80,640 Yuan per ton. It had previously reached 80,760 Yuan, the highest since March 28. The worries about the U.S. deficit have caused the dollar to weaken, which is supportive of commodities. My focus this week will be the U.S. Trade Talks," said a Beijing based metals analyst for a futures firm. The dollar index fell by 0.35% on Monday to 96.86, putting it on course for its sixth consecutive month of losses and its worst half year since the 1970s. The greenback is less expensive to buyers of other currencies. Last week, U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent said that the U.S.-China had resolved the issues surrounding shipments of Chinese magnets and rare earth minerals to the U.S. This further modified a May Geneva deal. Bessent added that even if countries are negotiating with good faith on July 9, they could still be facing sharply higher tariffs. Any possible extensions would be at the discretion of Trump. LME tin rose 0.4% to $33,850 per ton. Aluminium gained 0.29% at $2,605. Zinc eased by 0.6% at $2,735. Lead fell by 0.22% to 2,040.5. Nickel slipped 0.03% at $15,210. SHFE tin rose 0.63% to 269.840 yuan. Aluminium gained 0.41% at 20,635 Yuan. Zinc fell by 0.8% to 22.255 Yuan. Lead dropped 0.26% to 17.100 Yuan. Nickel eased 0.21% at 120.720 yuan. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories.
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Ifo: mood in Germany's chemicals industry improves over power subsidy plan
According to a Tuesday survey, the expectations of companies in Germany's chemicals industry have improved dramatically in June. They are pinning their hopes on an upcoming reduction in electricity taxes for industry. In June, the Ifo indicator of economic expectations for the sector reached 9.5 points. This was its highest level in three-and-a-half years. It had been -5.4 points in May. The German government is planning to reduce electricity taxes for certain sectors. Representatives from the retail, energy, and industrial sectors have criticised the plans, warning that they could distort competitiveness and have limited effect. The average electricity price in Germany is 38 cents per kilowatt hour, which ranks fifth in the world. Ifo added that the backlog of orders is extremely low. Ifo noted that some companies benefit from lower raw materials costs and the beginnings of a recovery in international demand. However, the protectionist tariff policies of the United States, high location costs, and geopolitical uncertainties are also affecting the sector's growth. Anna Wolf, Ifo's industry analyst, said: "In this context, the German government's state investments are giving urgently needed impetus."
EXPLAINER-Mexico constitutional reforms more likely with super-majority in sight
Mexican Presidentelect Claudia Sheinbaum's ruling coalition is close to protecting a. twothirds bulk in both chambers of Congress, which would. lead the way to passing controversial constitutional reforms on. its own. Preliminary results from Sunday's election show Sheinbaum's. leftist Morena celebration and its allies will have the supermajority. in the lower home, but likely came up short in the Senate when. new lawmakers are seated in September.
Sheinbaum will take office one month later in October. Below are prospective reforms that have markets and financiers. concerned, and resulted in a sharp decline in Mexican possession costs on. Monday.
DESPERATE EFFORT
Sheinbaum's mentor, outbound President Andres Manuel Lopez. Obrador, proposed a series of constitutional reforms in. February, a few of which critics argue would remove crucial. oversight bodies, wear down judicial self-reliance and concentrate. more power in the executive branch.
The 128-member upper home will have at least 82 senators. from Morena and its junior partners in the Green Party and Labor. Party, simply short of a two-thirds majority, according to a. federal government discussion using initial election outcomes. In. the 500-member lower home, on the other hand, Morena and its allies. will have at least 365 members, or 73% of the body.
Lopez Obrador will overlap with the newly-elected lawmakers. in his last month in office in September, and on Monday he. suggested he will make a last-ditch effort to enact the reforms. before handing the baton to Sheinbaum.
I'm going to talk it over with Claudia ... to see which of. those initiatives we can push for and get approved, stated Lopez. Obrador.
Concern about the shakeup sent stocks tipping over 6% and. the peso as much as 4.3% lower.
INDEPENDENT OVERSIGHT BODIES
Amongst his proposals to remove what he has described as. ineffectiveness and inefficient spending, Lopez Obrador has proposed. to scrap the constitutionally-enshrined freedom of details. body INAI, federal anti-trust company COFECE, advancement. examination company Coneval and telecoms regulator IFT.
It would also put the energy ministry in charge of energy. regulators CRE and CNH, both of which are now independent.
At times, he has actually accused a few of the agencies of fostering. corruption.
OVERHAULING THE ELECTIONS AUTHORITY
Throughout his administration, Lopez Obrador often lambasted. the companies, also consisting of the nationwide electoral authority. INE, which he is looking for to totally upgrade. As numerous as 700,000 people filled the streets of Mexico City in. February to protest the proposed taking apart of the INE.
The reforms are a method of setting up electoral reform to. cement Morena's political hegemony, said Nicholas Watson,. managing director of speaking with firm Teneo.
Lopez Obrador also proposes decreasing the minimum required. level of citizen participation for binding person referendums, a. strategy he utilized in the past when just a small portion of the. public took part, and need they be arranged on same day. as elections.
JUDICIAL, LEGISLATIVE CHANGES
Lopez Obrador also wants huge modifications in the judicial system,. including the popular election of Supreme Court judges, other. magistrates, plus electoral authorities. Critics argue such. elected roles would deteriorate their existing self-reliance.
The number of Supreme Court judges would further be cut to. 9, from 11, and all judges would need to be renewed in an. remarkable election to take place in 2025, which has also. been criticized as a hit on an independent court system.
Lopez Obrador has argued the modifications are needed because the. existing judiciary serves a minority and sometimes arranged. criminal activity at the cost of society.
Regarding the legal branch, the reforms would likewise cut. the number of members of the lower house of Congress to 300,. from 500, and slash the variety of senators to 64 from 128.
S&P Global Rankings stated while greater centralization of. political decision-making and mixed political signals under. Lopez Obrador had reduced the independence of several firms,. crucial checks and balances stayed.
Procedures that damage checks and balances might impact. private-investor confidence by producing perceptions of higher. danger, possibly impacting economic development and sovereign. credit reliability, it warned.
SHOPPING LIST
Lopez Obrador may need to be narrow his list of reforms. given the tight window between the last legislative session. under him and Sheinbaum's October inauguration. Still more. proposed constitutional reforms include:
-- Expanded retirement advantages for senior citizens 65 years. or older and handicapped people, which some experts warn could add. to long-lasting pressures on public finances
-- Paid vocational training for youths between the age. of 18 and 29
-- a prohibition on genetically customized corn that critics. say could deepen an existing corn disagreement with the United States
-- a restriction on water rights in areas facing dry spell
-- a restriction on open pit mining and fracking. If enacted, a few of the reforms might exacerbate a deficit spending. which experts state is likely to be a significant burden for Sheinbaum. once she takes office.
Financiers are not only concerned that these constitutional. amendments will now be passed, however maybe that Sheinbaum, Lopez. Obrador and MORENA may try to additional entrench their brand name of. politics and economics into the constitution, stated Jason Tuvey,. deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.
(source: Reuters)