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Supply concerns about a prolonged Mideast conflict have heightened the price of oil
The oil prices continued to rise?on?Tuesday, as the risks of a long-term conflict in the Middle East increased after Iran threatened retaliation against any new U.S. attack on its assets. This heightened concerns over supply disruption. Brent crude futures rose 34 cents or 0.35% to $97.34 per barrel at 0000 GMT. U.S. West Texas?Intermediate Crude was $92.63 per barrel, up $1.15 or 1.26%. Brent reached its highest level in the previous session since?July 24, as traders built a risk premium to prices amid increased?tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major artery for crude oil shipments around the world. Iran warned Monday that the energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including U.S. interests in oil and gas, is vulnerable. The tit-fortat attacks?during weekend have not shown any progress in achieving a diplomatic breakthrough. According to the U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian oil tanks on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island - Iran's main oil hub. These attacks follow on from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' strikes against U.S. warships in the area. The recent escalation in the Middle East conflict has increased the likelihood of an extended standoff punctuated with calibrated military actions by the U.S. Daniel Hynes, ANZ analyst, stated?in a 'note' that the Persian Gulf could remain?constrained until 2026. We don't anticipate a return to the pre-war level of throughput until Q2 or Q3 2027. MARKET OUTLOOK Goldman Sachs has also raised its Brent and WTI prices forecasts for December 2026 by $5, to $85 and $85, respectively. For 2027 they have increased their forecasts to $80 and $75, respectively. This is due to the new assumption that Middle East Shipping disruptions will continue until 2027. Ed Meir, an analyst at financial services platform Marex, said in its September commodity outlook that crude oil prices would likely stay high through the end of the year as long as "the war" continues.
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Supply concerns about a prolonged Mideast conflict have heightened the price of oil
The oil prices continued to rise 'on Tuesday, as the risk of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East increased after Iran threatened retaliation against any new U.S. attack on its assets. This increased concerns over supply disruption. Brent crude futures rose 34 cents or 0.35% to $97.34 per barrel at 0000 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $92.63 a barrel at 0000 GMT, up $1.15 or 1.26%. Brent crude oil prices rose in the previous session to their highest level since the 24th of July, as traders continued to add a premium to the price of the product amid increased tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major artery for the global shipping of crude oil. Iran warned Monday that the energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, including U.S. interests in oil and gas, is vulnerable. The tit-fortat attacks that took place over the weekend were followed by a lack of diplomatic progress. According to the U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces attacked three Iranian oil tanks on Saturday, including one near Kharg Island - Iran's main oil hub. These attacks follow on from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' strikes against U.S. warships in the area. The recent escalation in the Middle East conflict increased the likelihood of "a prolonged standoff" punctuated with a calibrated military response by the U.S. Daniel Hynes, ANZ analyst, stated in a 'note' that the Persian Gulf could remain constrained until 2026. We don't anticipate a return to the pre-war level of throughput until Q2 or Q3 2027. MARKET OUTLOOK Goldman Sachs has raised their Brent and WTI price forecasts for December 2026 by $5, to $85 each and $80 for 2027. This is based on the assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions will continue through 2027. Analyst?Ed Meir stated in the September commodity outlook of financial services platform Marex that crude oil prices would likely stay high through the end of this year as long as?the war continues.
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Two men survive nine days in the flood tunnels of Nepal
Kabir Maharjan, a delirious man, drifted in-and-out of consciousness in the darkness of a?pool muddied with water. He had been trapped in a tunnel for nine days under the wreckage caused by Nepal's worst flooding disaster in decades. He did not recognise his wife when he woke up in a hospital, after a miraculous rescue. He asked her, confused, why she hadn't given him a place to sleep sooner. Maharjan is believed to be one of hundreds hydropower workers who were buried by a collapsed glacier above Nepal's Trishuli Valley on August 26. The wall of mud and water unleashed killed over 1,300 people, and thousands of others are still missing in Nepal and neighboring Tibet. Both he and the mechanical foreman Sanjay sah were able to survive in an air-filled room, according to Shri Ram Neupane. He is a veteran engineer who led the rescue effort. The search teams that are working along the valley's devastated sites have hope because of their rescue against the odds. Some of the 121 workers believed to still be trapped in the tunnels on Monday may still be alive. The full story has been reconstructed through interviews with 12 people. This includes the unreported accounts of relatives, engineers and government officials, as well as rescuers who were directly involved. Site documents, maps and internal conversations among rescuers have also been reviewed. THE MORNING Maharjan had called his wife at 7:30 am (0145 GMT) the morning of the tragedy before he started his shift at Upper Trishuli 3A Hydropower Project. He told her, "I must go into the tunnel." There won't even be a network in the tunnel. A glacier collapsed on the Langtang Lirung Mountain, some 25 miles downstream, causing an avalanche so powerful it flooded villages and submerged 12 hydropower plants with almost 900 workers. On their screens, officials from the electricity department in Kathmandu monitored the power supply of the various projects. Then, the screens went blank. Stations started to disappear from the panels like dominoes. Suraj Dahal said that he wasn't alarmed at first because "floods" are common in Nepal. Soon, they understood that the opposite was true. It took two minutes longer to contact the estimated 40 workers inside because the 3A station manager, who was away at the time, had been called. At least two hydropower plants upriver were already affected by then. Officials gave the order for 3A to evacuate at 9:15 am, two minutes after Maharjan’s wife, Hira-Shova Maharjan had attempted to contact him but failed. Sah, who was in the control room of the powerhouse, ran from floor to floor warning each colleague individually, he told rescuers. Workers attempting to escape the flood outside the tunnels were unable to do so quickly enough. Officials pointed to footage that showed a group of about 30 workers being swept away by waves many times higher than their own height. Dahal said that rescuers found an escape ladder, which had the workers been aware of it, they could have saved up to two-thirds. He said that they "didn’t know where to turn." Rescuers thought that the one tunnel access route, which ran over 180 meters, was completely flooded and offered no hope of survival. Neupane turned instead his attention to a smaller cable-duct that sloped up and was less vulnerable to floodwaters. Maharjan and Sah took shelter there, only 160 meters away from the exit - "at the corner, on the edge of tunnel", as Maharjan later described it to his spouse. Fear of the Worst The air pocket, which had saved their lives, became their prison for the next nine days. Sah said he recited Hindu prayer to keep his bravery. Maharjan's wife claimed that he drank the same muddy water as he did to sleep in order to remain alive. Hira Shova assumed that the powerhouse was safe when she first heard of the flood. She called her husband, co-workers, and anyone else who could have some information. Nobody answered. She was shocked to see photos of the entrance, which is now a barren riverbank. "He couldn't be alive", she thought. She recalled that "deep down in my soul, a terrible sense of hopelessness was setting into," but she maintained a brave face in front of her 15-year-old and 10-year old sons. RACE AGAINST MOUNTAIN Officials thought that oxygen pockets scattered throughout the wreckage could help some workers survive. Dharamraj Uprety of Nepal's National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority said that with more than 7,500 homes destroyed in the valley, rescuers were forced to make tough decisions on where to dig. 3A was near the top because officials believed its multi-story structure with turbines and ventilation floor might have trapped air pockets. Sagar Dhakal and Neupane, along with Neupane and Sagar Dhakal as well as an army helicopter, arrived at the site the day following the disaster. The debris was so saturated that heavy machinery could not be moved in right away. "Everything that you drop there just sinks," said Prakash Pokhrel a geologist at Nepal's Disaster Management Authority. Before any excavations could start, crews had to first build a stable surface. Three days after the catastrophe, serious digging began. All four tunnels had been blocked by mud, rocks, timber, and debris. Some of this was buried beneath 15 to 30 meters of landslide materials. Rescuers used drilling, controlled explosions and heavy equipment to make a way forward. The breakthrough was when a 5-inch hole drilled above confirmed the true alignment of the tunnel, giving crews an exact point to dig towards. The rain made things worse. Rain flooded the shaft with debris and fresh water several nights in a row, undoing all of our hard work. Amshu Kiran, a member of the board of the Nepal Electricity Authority, stated that it took the rescuers six days to reach the tunnel entrance. They called for survivors but nobody responded. The Breakthrough Rescuers couldn't move a wall of mud clogged debris the night before they found the survivors. Dhakal’s crew used improvised methods to clear the tunnel. They tapped a natural channel 15 meters above it and forced water through with a high pressure jet. It rained again and triggered a partial collapse, trapping several rescuers for a short time. After hours of stalling, colleagues convinced them to return inside and reinforced the passageway with metal sheets and gabion. Dahal received a phone call at 4 am on the 10th night from a heavy-equipment operator. The rescuers heard something. A noise. A noise. Perhaps the voices of rescuers calling out into the darkness. Ganga Baral led the rescue effort and said that they heard noises while drilling into the tunnel. They cut the engines of their machines again and again to listen. We would shout, "Where are you?" "Are you there?" Baral said. "Sometimes, it felt as if there was someone alive trying to talk to us," Baral said. The source of the sound was still too far away to make out any words, but now they estimated it to be only 15-20 meters away. They saw a hand in the light beam. Between them and the survivor, they had to cross another 5-10 meters of mud. Soldiers opened a small opening at 7:00 am. The only word that came out was "hunuhuncha", loosely translated as "we are here". SEE THE LIGHT Both men were unable to stand up when the rescuers finally lifted them out of the tunnel. Sah's face was caked with mud and he had to be carried on the back of a rescuer. He was able to raise one hand towards a camera. Maharjan was carried out by a stretcher with more serious injuries. "Mummy! Papa is back!" "Mummy, Papa is back!" shouted his sons when they heard. Dhakal wept as the two men emerged. Dhakal had never been inside the tunnel but ran the operation. "I could not hold back my tears," Dhakal said. The Chinese national Lu Haitao, was discovered the following day in the tunnels of another station, Upper Trishuli-1 hydropower project. Maharjan’s wife reported that doctors at the hospital operated on a deep infected cut on his leg. He did not recognize Hira Shova when she walked into the room. He asked, "Where am i?" She was thrilled that he had returned to life. He is blessed with a second life.
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Stocks hit by rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and oil prices
Investors were on edge Monday as rising?oil costs, the conflict in the Middle East, and political unrest in Europe kept them on edge. Stocks drifted lower ahead of important U.S. data on inflation later this week. Tehran announced that it would declare a restricted area outside the Strait of Hormuz within days after U.S. forces struck three Iranian tankers, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles on two U.S. Navy vessels. Brent crude futures have risen 1.3%, to $97.5 per barrel, the highest in seven weeks. Oil prices rose almost 8% in the last week, and are now 35% higher than they were at the end of February before war began. Diesel prices, which power transport, shipping and farming, as well as manufacturing, reached record highs in the last week. They are now around 90% higher than before the war. Investors should pay close attention to this week's U.S. Consumer Price Index because central banks will likely raise interest rates as?food prices and fuel prices are rising across the globe. On Thursday, the European Central Bank is expected raise rates to 2.5%. Futures traders expect another rate hike in December to 2.75%. Markets are also pricing in 75% of the possibility that Bank of Japan will raise rates by a quarter-point at its September 18 meeting, with 60% of another increase occurring before December. Bruce Kasman, global head economist at JPMorgan, said that the patience of central banks during the energy crisis has helped asset prices and credit cycles. "However central banks are now moving." RATE INCREASES? The Federal Reserve's last-week's payroll report, which exceeded expectations with a 162,000 increase in August, left the markets pricing in a 58% probability of an increase when they meet on September 16. And 70% for a movement in October. The euro gained 0.14%, to $1.1629. Analysts said that the euro has been drifting lower since August's three-month highs and with increasing political tension on many fronts it may struggle to gain much upward momentum. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far right party in Germany, won the state elections in Saxony Anhalt on Sunday. This is the first time in history that a far right party has been able to win power at the state level. The AfD, while still far from having a majority or gaining power at the national level, has stated that one of their policies is to abandon the euro. Kathleen Brooks, XTB's research director, said: "This development is harmful for the long-term stability of our single currency." Recent polls in France show that far-right leader, Marine?Le pen, who has previously supported abandoning the Euro, is likely to win the first round at next year's Presidential elections. The next few years may see a wave of political change in Europe, and a shift towards the right for the two biggest economies. It may not be an issue for FX traders now, but tomorrow it will be. This could explain why the euro is among the weakest currencies in comparison to its peers by 2026, Brooks stated. The euro fell 1.1% this year, the worst performing major currency in relation to the dollar. This was compared to a modest 0.7% increase in the Japanese yen which had been partly boosted through official intervention and a 0.4% gain in the pound. Dollar?retreated? against yen, dropping 1.2% to 154.32 as a 'burst of purchasing propelled the Japanese to a 7-month high. Last week, the yen posted its best weekly performance in over a month, with rising expectations that the BOJ will hike rates and the threat of further official buying triggering a short-squeeze. While European stocks were struggling to reach positive territory, Wall Street was a little quieter due to a U.S. Holiday. S&P futures fell by 0.2%, and Nasdaq Futures rose 0.2%.
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US imports more Congo Copper as Consumer Acceptance Grows
U.S. consumers are increasingly buying copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo. This is helping to drive record-breaking?imports of the African producer as industrial consumers take advantage of discounts on?COMEX approved brands. According to U.S. Trade data, copper cathode deliveries by the second largest copper producing nation in the world reached a record 53.290 metric tons during July. Congo now has a share of 23.9% of all imports. This is the highest ever. These numbers illustrate the increase in demand for Congo's copper by the United States. The country imported less than 32, 000 tons of?copper in 2024. Congo has more copper to sell now due to?increased production. This increase is all the more remarkable when you consider that there are no copper brands available from the Congo on the U.S. COMEX exchange. COMEX lists only two African copper brands, both from Zambia. More than one-third (35%) of COMEX approved brands come from Chile and Peru. Albert Mackenzie is a copper analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. He said that this could indicate the Congo metal was going directly to the U.S. market. "And if that's the case, it'll be much cheaper than COMEX-deliverable brand," he said. Mackenzie reported that the premium for COMEX copper compared to the LME price fluctuated between $400 and $600 during the summer. It may have been cheaper to buy non-CME-registered material at the LME price. Two sources in the industry who deal with Congo copper confirm that it is priced based on a LME basis. The first source stated that his metal is usually sold at a discount of between $550 and $800 per ton in order to cover the freight costs. Second source: The standard of Congo Copper has significantly improved in recent years. This has led to greater acceptance by U.S. consumers. China's copper imports from Congo have fallen by 4.3% over the first seven months of 2026 as large amounts of copper have been shipped to the United States. Congo's share of the market has however increased by a?five-point percentage point to 44.7%. China imported 95,778 tonnes of Congovian products in July, a 39.4% market share, which is the lowest since last October, but Congo remains the largest supplier.
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Institute: Italy has its hottest summer in more than 75 years
The Institute for BioEconomy of the National Research Council (CNR-IBE), a part of the National Research Council, announced on Monday that this summer was Italy's hottest since 1950. According to the public authority, August was the hottest month in the year with a temperature average of 25.6 C. This is 5.2 C higher than the average 1951-1980 and 3.5 C higher than the norm 1991-2020. These figures are based upon readings taken from a height of two metres. Researchers at CNR-IBE Lorenzo Arcidiaco stated that "the average of 25.6 degrees Celsius recorded in August 2026 surpasses the previous records which were 24.6 C in August 2024 and 24?C in August 2017." Arcidiaco stated that the data indicated 2026 as being the hottest year in Italy since 1950 when the data was collected. Both July and August were the hottest on record. CNR is Italy’s largest public research institution. Europe, which is the fastest-warming continent in the world, has experienced sweltering hot summers. Wildfires and drought are also a major problem. Britain experienced its hottest summer in recorded history. Most of the affected areas in Italy are located along?the Apennines and the northwestern lowlands, where drought and high temperatures have affected farming. Separate analyses of weather data showed that major cities like Rome, Florence, and Turin all experienced repeated heatwaves during June, July, and August.
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Nigeria's Dangote Oil Refinery signss IPO documents ahead of landmark share sale
On Monday, Nigeria's Dangote Oil Refinery signed offering documents with its 'advisers' and other parties involved in the initial public offering. This is a major milestone on the way to Africa's largest-ever share sale. According to a presentation made at a ceremony held in Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital, the offering will last from September 14 until October 13. If fully subscribed, the company could raise up to $2.15 trillion ($1.63 billion). The presentation stated that in the event of a high demand for shares, Dangote's refinery and petrochemicals plant could issue up to 30 percent more than the base offer, subject to approval by the regulatory authorities. Investors will be able to gauge the level of interest in one of Africa's largest industrial projects. The 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery, built at a cost of about $20 billion on the outskirts of Lagos, has reshaped Nigeria's fuel market ?and benefited from supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, exporting jet fuel across Africa and into Europe. The plant is part of Africa's richest man,?Aliko?Dangote, whose sprawling empire includes sugar, cement, and other businesses. The IPO aims to raise money for a 'planned doubling of refinery capacity to 1.4m barrels per day. The company?has already secured a $400-million?underwriting commitment. Dangote said at the signing ceremony that he hopes the refinery will become the largest single-train refinery in the world by 2028.
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The Netherlands opens Europe's largest Carbon Capture Facility
The largest carbon-capture facility in Europe, developed by Yara International of Norway, opened?in The Netherlands on Monday. The CCS facility in 'Sluiskil in southern Dutch province of Zeeland will reduce emissions at Europe's biggest fertiliser production site and transport captured CO2 to Norway, Yara stated. Yara Sluiskil is set to capture and liquefy?CO2 up to 800,000.0 metric tons per year by 2026. Northern Lights, a transport and storage operator in Norway, will store and transport the carbon 2.6 km (1.65 miles) below the Norwegian continental shelf. Yara hopes to remove 12 million tonnes of CO2 from the site over 15 years. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere stated that the Sluiskil Project offers a solution which is both scientifically and commercially viable. Our climate challenge is in the industry, because there we have labor, capital and technology. Energy is everywhere. Stoere stated that the Netherlands should be a leader in the energy nations. The European Union is planning to use carbon capture technology in order to achieve its 2050 "net-zero emission" target, especially for industrial processes like chemical manufacturing where there are no low-carbon alternatives available. Despite the fact that this technology has been a stumbling block in Europe for many years, it is still gaining traction. Critics say CCS allows companies to continue producing oil and gas, while promising to capture future emissions.
Brazilian court suspends licences for Sigma Lithium Mine
Documents reviewed by?showed that a Brazilian judge had ordered the suspension of mining and environmental permits at Sigma Lithium’s?Grota do Cirilo?mine. ?showed.
The judge ruled Friday on a civil lawsuit brought by the Federation of Quilombola Communities of Minas gerais, in which the group claimed that the miner’s project was in the area of direct influence of the Bau Quilombola Community.
Quilombolas, or traditional communities of African descent, were founded by people who fled slavery. The state protects their territories and requires more licensing for any projects that may impact them.
The Judge Antonio Lucio?de Oliveira?Barbosa stated that there was enough evidence to show the Bau territory was within the project’s influence area, thus triggering procedures such as a prior, free and informed consultation with?the community.
The judge stated that there was a risk to harm the community as the mining complex of Sigma carried out "constant earthmoving and blasting just a few kilometers from the traditional territories."
The judge cited studies that indicated the territory was about 2.7 km (1.7 mile) away from the directly affected area of the project, well within 8 km threshold which?triggers a more extensive process.
Sigma has argued that the project is outside the impact zone. The court ordered a georeferencing expert to review the distance between the project site and Quilombola territory.
The decision does not only suspend environmental licenses but also bars Minas Gerais from issuing new ones. It also imposes a fine on Sigma for continuing its operations.
Sigma issued a statement Monday stating that the company continues to operate its mine and has not received any notification of a "preliminary judicial ruling" which it described as being made without due process.
The company said that it would start its legal defense on Tuesday.
The mine is Sigma's sole productive asset and has an annualised nameplate capacity for 330,000 tons lithium oxide concentrator.
(source: Reuters)