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Sources say that the Russian cartel office has proposed a complete ban on gasoline exports.
Three industry sources said that the Russian Federal Anti-Monopoly Service has proposed an export ban on gasoline to combat high fuel prices. At the moment, only a small percentage of gasoline exported by re-sellers is restricted, whereas oil companies have a license to sell fuel abroad. The restrictions will last until August 31. FAS refused to comment. The government decides on any possible export ban, but the regulator can make its own proposals. The proposal to tighten restrictions was made as the domestic wholesale gasoline price in Russia on a commodity market jumped up to a 2-year high this month, to approximately 65,000 roubles (US$828.55) per ton. The Russian government has repeatedly applied temporary bans on gasoline exports in the last two years, to combat fuel shortages. Current restrictions do not apply to supplies to the Moscow led Eurasian Economic Union (a grouping of five former Soviet States) and to Mongolia, with whom Russia has intergovernmental agreements for fuel supply. Nigeria, Libya Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates are among the largest importers of Russian gas.
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Greece orders evacuation of a coastal town after wildfire near the capital.
Greek firefighters fought a wildfire on Thursday that spread to houses in the coastal town Palaia Fokaia (40 km south of Athens). The authorities also ordered the evacuation of four seaside villages nearby. Eight aircraft, five helicopters, and 28 vehicles were used to help 90 firefighters in the area around Palaia-Fokaia put out fires caused by strong winds and burning houses. The number of people who had fled their homes in Palaia-Fokaia was not immediately known. The Greek TV showed a helicopter dropping a water bomb as thick grey smoke rose above the area, where temperatures reached 38 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit). Greece, located on Europe's southernmost edge and experiencing a hot climate, has suffered the environmental and economic impact of wildfires and flooding in recent years. Scientists say that this has been made worse by a rapidly changing climate. The country spent hundreds of millions to compensate farmers and households for damages caused by extreme weather conditions and to acquire modern and advanced firefighting gear to combat wildfires that have grown more difficult to control due to rising temperatures in the summer. In anticipation of a difficult wildfire season, Greece has increased the number of firefighters in its ranks to a new record of 18,000 for this year.
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McGeever: A hawkish Fed can cause the biggest "pain trades" on markets.
Financial markets are in limbo as the first half of this year ends. They're waiting to see if the global trade deal kaleidoscope will come together - or not - after July 9 when Washington's "reciprocal" tariffs expire. Which trades are most at risk if investors get caught off guard? Today's market is in a state of suspended animation. This is an incredibly bullish situation. The U.S. forecasts for growth are increasing, S&P earnings growth estimates are at 14% next year, corporate deal making is on the rise, and global stocks are at records highs. It seems that the uncertainty following President Donald Trump’s "Liberation Day", April 2, tariffs is a distant past. The relief rally raged for almost three months and only took a short pause during the 12-day conflict between Israel & Iran. Some might even say it's too rosy. What will be the "pain trades", if we see a decline? Unsurprisingly, the major pressure points occur in asset classes and on markets where sentiment and positioning are heavily skewed in one direction. A sudden price change can cause too many traders to rush out of the market at once. Bank of America's global fund manager monthly survey is a good way to identify positions that are overloaded. According to the Bank of America's June survey, long gold is the most popular trade right now (according 41% of respondents), followed by long "Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks" (23%), and then short U.S. Dollar (20%). These three trades are popular because they have proven to be highly profitable. The "Mag 7", a basket of Nvidia shares, Microsoft shares, Meta stock, Apple stocks, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla, accounted for more than half of S&P 500’s 58% return over two years in 2023-2024. The Roundhill "Mag 7" ETF, which is equal-weighted, has risen 40% in the past year. This week, the Nasdaq 100, a market index that includes these seven companies, reached a new high. Gold prices have nearly doubled over the past two and a half years. They reached a record-breaking $3,500 per ounce in April. The dollar has fallen 10% in this year and is on course for its worst half-year since the establishment of the free-floating rate system more than 50 year ago. Slash and... BURN? These three positions are essentially derivatives of a fundamental bet. The belief that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut U.S. rates substantially over the next 18-month period, which would turn all of these positions into moneymakers. Rates futures markets are increasing their bets for lower rates despite the Fed's revised projections of economic growth last week being notable for their hawkish tone. This is mainly due to dovish remarks from several Fed officials, and a sharp drop in oil prices. The traders now predict a 125 basis point rate cut by the end next year. Morgan Stanley's economists are even more pessimistic, predicting no change in the forecast for this year and 175 basis point cuts next year. This would bring the Fed funds rate down to between 2.5% and 2.75%. A reduction in borrowing costs is especially beneficial for companies with high growth potential, such as Big Tech. In theory, low rates would also be good for gold as it is a non-interest bearing asset. On the other hand, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where the economy continues to grow, and equity prices are rising, while at the same time the Fed cuts rates by 175 basis points. A Fed that eases at this speed and scale would almost certainly be trying to quell a raging fire in the economy, which is most likely to cause a recession or severe economic slowdown. Risk assets may not necessarily crash in this environment, but overextended positions will be exposed. This isn't a first for investors to have bet on Fed cutbacks in the last three years. However, we haven't seen a major crash as a consequence. The markets have fared better than most observers predicted, and reached new highs. If "pain trading" does emerge in the second part of the year, this will be due to one particular sore spot: A hawkish Fed. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Brazil's inflation drops in early June due to lower food prices
Brazil's consumer prices increased less than expected at the beginning of June, bringing relief to the central bank after they voted to increase interest rates last week. IBGE, a statistics agency, reported on Thursday that the IPCA-15 Consumer Price Index rose by only 0.26% from the previous month, compared to 0.36%. This is below the 0.30% increase expected by economists. IBGE reported that annual inflation was 5.27% during the period. This is down from 5.40% at mid-May, and below all poll estimates, which predicted a median of 5.31%. Statistically, the lower-than expected figures were a result of a decline in food and drink prices. The agency noted that this was the first time in ten months the sector had seen a 0.02% decrease. IBGE said that the increase in electricity prices was largely responsible for the rise in housing costs. Brazil's central Bank released the data last week Interest rates on the rise By 25 basis points, the borrowing cost in the country has risen to its highest level since July 2006. Bank policymakers have expressed their displeasure with an inflation rate above target, but they've indicated that interest rates should remain unchanged for now. Extended period The impact of the tightening cycle has yet to be felt. Reporting by Gabriel Araujo, Editing by Aida Pelaez-Fernandez
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BHP faces UK contempt charge for funding case over Brazil dam collapse
The High Court of London ruled that BHP will be held in contempt for its funding of litigation to try and prevent certain Brazilian municipalities from suing BHP over one of Brazil’s worst environmental disasters. The ruling on Thursday is the latest in a long-running lawsuit over the failure of the Mariana Dam in Southeastern Brazil, which was owned and operated jointly by BHP's Samarco joint enterprise and Vale. Judge Adam Constable stated that it is arguable BHP, world's largest miner in terms of market value, has funded Brazilian litigation for the municipalities to stop them suing London "with the intention... of interfering... with the administration justice". The date of the contempt hearing is still unknown. BHP is awaiting the verdict in a London case that lawyers for the claimants have estimated at up to 49.3 billion pounds (36 billion pounds). BHP's spokesperson stated that the decision did not decide the merits of the contempt applications made by municipalities, which it "will continue vigorously to defend". Lawyers for the claimants who sued BHP, including more than 600 000 Brazilians, 46 local government and around 2,000 companies, welcomed the decision, calling it "a significant step in holding BHP accountable". The dam broke and released a toxic sludge which killed 19 people and left thousands homeless. It also flooded forests and polluted the Doce River. This led to the largest legal case in English history. The trial started in October and ended in March. The decision on whether BHP is responsible for the collapse of the mines is still pending. BHP denies responsibility and claims that the case duplicates Brazilian legal proceedings, reparation and repair programmes and court cases. Brazil signed an agreement for compensation with BHP and Samarco worth 30.06 billion dollars in the first week of the trial. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Sam Tobin)
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Bangladesh installs solar panels on public buildings in order to combat energy shortages
The interim government of Bangladesh directed officials on Thursday to install rooftop solar panels in government buildings such as schools, colleges and hospitals. This is part of a drive to produce clean energy and reduce reliance on expensive fuel imports. Bangladesh is governed currently by an interim government led by Nobel Prize winner Muhammad Yunus. This administration took over after Sheikh Hasina, the former Prime Minister, quit and fled to another country amid protests in August. Due to the growing demand for electricity and financial constraints, the interim government has been struggling to stabilize the sector. Yunus gave his directive during a 'National Rooftop Solar Program Meeting'. The meeting was held in the context of an energy crisis exacerbated by the volatile fuel prices around the world. The meeting was attended by officials who cited the 2024 report of the International Renewable Energy Agency which revealed that Bangladesh lagged far behind its peers in the region when it came to solar energy adoption. According to a report, Bangladesh only generates 5.6% of its power from solar sources. This compares with India (24%), Pakistan (17.16%), and Sri Lanka (39.7%). In order to bridge this gap, government has already issued tenders for 55 solar power plants on land with a total capacity of 5,238MW. These projects will not be completed before 2028. Yunus encouraged agencies to adopt quick-to-implement rooftop solar systems and encouraged private investors to install and maintain solar panel on public buildings using roof space provided by government. Yunus stated that the institutions would not have to pay for electricity and could earn rental income from their roofs. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved this week a disbursement of $1.3 billion to Bangladesh from a bailout package of $4.7 billion the country requested in 2023. This was due to dwindling reserves in foreign currency and increasing import costs after a surge in commodities prices caused by Russia's invasion in Ukraine. (Reporting and editing by Sudipto Ganuly; Reporting by RumaPaul)
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Russell: Higher prices will affect Asia's crude imports in June.
Asia's crude oil imports rose in the first six months of 2025, as an increase in arrivals in June overcame the slow start of the year. According to LSEG Oil Research, the world's largest import region has seen arrivals of 27,36 million barrels a day (bpd), up by 620,000 bpd compared to the 26,74 million bpd of the same period in last year. The performance improvement was primarily due to the fact that June imports soared from 27.3 million bpd and 26.42 millions bpd last June, respectively. This is the highest LSEG data recorded since January 2023. China was the top importer in June, and LSEG estimated arrivals at 11,96 million bpd. This is the highest since March's 12,11 million bpd. India, Asia's largest buyer, is expected to import 5.26 million barrels per day in June, the highest level since March when 5.35 million barrels were imported. Market participants are wondering if the strong demand seen in Asia in June is a sign of a stronger second-half or if it is merely influenced by temporary factors. Price is the most obvious temporary factor. Both China and India are known to be sensitive when it comes to price fluctuations, increasing their imports at low prices but reducing them when prices rise. The cargoes arriving in June would have been secured six to eight weeks prior to delivery. This means that the oil price was on a downward trend at the time. Brent crude futures traded in a range between a high of 75.47 dollars a barrel (on April 2) and a low of 58.40 dollars a barrel (on April 9). They then traded sideways until another low of 58.5 dollars on May 5. Brent oil has been rising since the low of May 5, reaching $70.40 per barrel on June 12 - the day before Israel began its bombing campaign on Iran. After the Israeli attacks, and subsequent U.S. airstrikes on June 23, crude oil spiked to an all-time high of $81.40 per barrel. The risk premium then disappeared with the ceasefire agreement announced by U.S. president Donald Trump. AUGUST IMPACT Asia's refiners will feel the increase in prices primarily for cargoes that arrive in late July or August. It will be important to monitor if there is a pullback in imports during this time period. There is no evidence to suggest that the demand for crude oil and refined products in Asia is increasing. According to the most recent official data, China's refinery production increased only 0.3% to 14,47 million bpd in the first five month of this year. The small increase in refinery output suggests that China's demand for refined products is slowing down and that most of the crude imported is being added to inventory. India's fuel consumption is flat as well. According to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, the oil ministry, the consumption of refined products for the first five month of 2025 was 4.51 million bpd, down from 4.52 millions bpd in the same period of 2024. From August, the increase in crude oil prices and the shock from the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran will likely weaken Asia's need for imports. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Prince William of the UK says that indigenous peoples are important in protecting nature.
Prince William said on Thursday to investors, scientists and politicians that Indigenous People have a vital role to play in the protection of nature. This was his latest appeal for urgent action against climate change. The British heir-to-the throne has inherited the environmental zeal of his father, King Charles. He said that in order to protect the environment, it was necessary to support people living in communities all over the world. He said that the stewardship of local communities and their protection is one of the most powerful forces in conservation. The event was held at St James's Palace during London Climate Action Week. If we're serious about meeting climate and biodiversity goals then Indigenous Peoples and the local communities need to be at the center of our efforts as leaders, partners and co-creators. Ed Miliband and Brazil's Minister for Indigenous Peoples were in the audience on Wednesday, when they reaffirmed Britain's commitment towards decarbonising its economy and stimulating growth of green businesses. William's remarks Thursday come after a call earlier this month for world leaders and business to take immediate actions to protect our oceans. He said it was a "challenge like none we've ever faced". (Reporting and editing by Michael Holden)
Smoke from Canadian wildfires spreads to US Midwest
The smoke from three wildfires in Canada is now spreading to the Upper Midwest of the United States, bringing back memories of the heavy pollution that blew south from Canada during the worst fire season ever recorded there two years ago.
Smoke pollution is already blowing through Minnesota and other neighboring states. This poses a serious health threat to the tens or millions of people who live there. Over the next few days, it is expected to reach New York City and other East Coast Cities in a less severe level.
Doug Brugge is a researcher in public health at the University of Connecticut School of Medicine. He said that airborne particulate matters are the greatest environmental health risks we know of. It causes respiratory, cardiovascular and neurological damage, and these smoke plumes are at high levels in comparison to what Americans are usually exposed to.
Since the beginning of May, scores of wildfires have spread across Canada. They forced thousands of people to evacuate and disrupted crude oil production. According to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center, there were over 200 active fires on Monday. Of those, 106 were out-of-control.
The majority of the fires have occurred in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The current crisis is still not close to the 17 million hectares that burned in 2023.
According to IQAir (a website that monitors the air quality in various parts of the world), the air quality rating for New York will rise to 77 early on Wednesday morning as a result. Readings in Philadelphia, Washington and Boston will also increase to 70, and 68 in Boston.
According to the website, an air quality rating below 50 is "good," readings between 100-300 are "unhealthy" or "very unhealthy," and anything higher is "hazardous."
Ely, Minnesota near the Manitoba border, was one of the worst places for air pollution on Tuesday afternoon. The reading was 336, which is considered "hazardous".
The AQI in Duluth (Minnesota) was 164 in the afternoon on Tuesday, down from 309. In Flin Flon (Manitoba), about 800 miles (1300 km) north, in an area where Canadian wildfires have been concentrated, it was 202 in the afternoon, down from 359 the morning.
In IQAir’s list of the major cities in the world, Minneapolis ranked third with a 168 air quality reading, tied with Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
VULNERABLE PEOPLE
According to Brugge, children, the elderly, and those with chronic respiratory, cardiac and other illnesses, such as cardiovascular disease, are the most susceptible to the effects caused by smoke.
He said that the risk of hospitalization or death was low for people who were healthy and young. There is evidence, however, that air pollution increases blood pressure and inflammation in these people.
According to a recent California study, exposure to wildfire smoke can also increase the risk of lung cancer patients dying, especially among non-smokers. However, certain cancer treatments may mitigate this effect.
Some farmers, however, believe that the fires' effects are not entirely negative. On online forums such as Facebook, some farmers claim that their best harvests have come from years when there was a pall of smoke from wildfires from Canada. They believe that the smoke can protect crops vulnerable from scorching sun.
(source: Reuters)