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The outlook for oil prices is bleak as rising OPEC+ production and tariffs weigh on the outlook
Early Asian trade on Tuesday saw oil prices fall, weighed by a loosening of the supply-demand equilibrium following an increase in OPEC+ production and lingering worries about global economic prospects due to tensions over tariffs. Brent crude futures fell 5 cents or 0.1% to $65.58 a barge by 0040 GMT, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude was $63.32 a barge, down 9 cents or 0.1%. The benchmarks rose about 2% to their highest level in two weeks on Tuesday, boosted by concerns over disruptions to supply from wildfires in Canada and the expectation that Iran would reject a U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal that is crucial to easing sanctions against the major oil producer. Tsuyoshi Ueno is a senior economist with the NLI Research Institute. He said that despite fears about Canadian supply, and the stalled Iran/U.S. nuclear talks, oil markets struggle to extend their gains. Ueno said that hopes of progress in U.S. - China trade talks had been overshadowed due to profit-taking as investors remained cautious about the broader economic impact from tariffs. White House Press Secretary Karoline leavitt announced on Monday that U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would likely meet this week. This comes after Trump had accused China of breaking an agreement to reduce tariffs and trade barriers. The protracted negotiations, and the shifting deadlines have caused economists to lower their growth predictions. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development cut its global forecast for growth on Tuesday as the impact of Trump's trade conflict has a greater effect on the U.S. Scores of wildfires swept through Canada at the beginning of May, forcing thousands to evacuate and disrupting crude production. Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to report that U.S. crude stock levels fell by 3.3 millions barrels during the week ending May 30. Gasoline stocks increased by 4.7 millions barrels, and distillate stock rose by approximately 760,000 barrels. Nine analysts polled estimated that crude stockpiles would be reduced by an average of 1 million barrels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to release official inventory data on Wednesday. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Yuka Obayashi)
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Andy Home: Rio Tinto is betting lithium will remain the battery metal of choice.
The lithium market is a difficult one to be in as the metal has been weighed down by an excess of supply. The price of lithium hydroxide has fallen by 90% since its peak in 2022 and shows no signs of recovering. According to Wood Mackenzie, multiple producers now operate at negative or zero margins. Albemarle is the world's biggest producer of battery metal. They have cut costs and delayed new projects in order to survive the supply crisis. Rio Tinto is not deterred. Rio Tinto, the global mining company, remains "consistent" in its belief that lithium will have a long-term future. The company has put its money where it speaks, acquiring U.S. producer Arcadium at a cost of $6.7 billion. It also partnered with Chilean state entities for two projects. Rio believes that despite the current market dejection, demand will be sufficient to absorb current excesses and bring the market back into deficit by the end of the decade. In a rapidly changing landscape, it's a good bet to say that lithium will continue to dominate the battery metal market. Low Price, High Demand Lithium prices are weak because of the oversupply on the market. According to the International Energy Agency, global lithium production will grow by more than 35% per year in 2024. Chinese companies are not interested in cutting production and new mines continue to ramp up. However, the supply tsunami masks the strength in lithium demand. According to the IEA, global consumption grew 30% last year. This is equivalent to the global market size in 2018. Electric vehicles (EVs) are in good health. They are the largest users of lithium-ion battery technology. According to Rho Motion, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 25 percent last year and by 29 percent in the first three months of this year. The use of lithium in energy storage systems has increased even more as the global power system pivots towards cleaner, but intermittent energy sources like solar and wind. Rio Tinto expects the demand to increase at a rate of 10% or more annually through 2040. DOMINANT METAL This scenario is primarily threatened by a change in battery chemistry, as manufacturers strive to make batteries that are cheaper and more efficient. The use of more expensive metals in batteries, such as nickel and cobalt, has declined dramatically. However, lithium remains the most dominant element. Adamas Intelligence reports that the amount of nickel and copper deployed in new energy cars in March was only up by 12% and 2% respectively year-on-year. The deployment of lithium was up 30%, which is the same as overall EV growth. But the battle for battery materials is not over. The Chinese company CATL is leading the way in developing sodium-ion battery technology. The latest iteration, Naxtra, will almost match in efficiency the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that are displacing nickel-manganese-cobalt (NCM) chemistries. Robin Zeng, the billionaire founder of CATL, believes that sodium-ion battery could replace up to 50% of the LFP market. The IEA, however, is less certain, stating that the sodium-ion battery is most competitive when lithium prices are high, which is not what we have at present. Lithium’s low cost may be the best way to fight off competition from other materials. The battery price is also falling, resulting in new energy vehicles being cheaper. MARKET ACCELERATOR According to the IEA, battery pack prices have fallen by 20 percent to a new record low of $115 kilowatt hours in 2024. This is the biggest annual decline since 2017. Prices across the spectrum of battery metals have soared to record levels, resulting in a drop in the share of cathode materials in battery pack prices from 20% in 2023 to just 10% in 2024. LFP batteries are 30% cheaper in China than NCM batteries, which are popular on Western markets. European automakers have taken notice. Volkswagen has adopted LFP technology to create a 20,000 euro entry-level electric vehicle for the European market. The price of electric vehicles has been a major barrier to consumers switching, but that gap is closing. Market forces can be a powerful counterbalance to tariffs, and the fact that President Donald Trump has scrapped his predecessor's green agenda. SAFE BET The metal crown of lithium's battery looks secure for the time being. The impact of the global EV Revolution and the growing demand for grid-storage solutions will mitigate the impact of sodium-ion battery market share. The IEA also points out that despite interest in new chemistries the main driver for battery innovation is still the conventional chemistries based upon lithium. Both NCM and LFP technology are constantly improving. The demand for lithium is growing at a phenomenal rate and all indications are that it will continue in the coming years. How long it takes for the current surge in supply to translate into a deficit on the market and higher prices depends on how long this current surge continues. Do not hold your breath. It may take some time. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.
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Metals tariffs increase as the deadline for 'best offers' approaches
On Wednesday, the U.S. tariff rates on steel and aluminum imports will double as President Donald Trump intensifies a global war of trade. He also expects his trading partners to make their "best offers" to avoid harsh import tax rates for other goods taking effect early in July. Trump signed an executive order late Tuesday that will take effect on Wednesday. Last week, Trump surprised the world by announcing that he would increase tariffs from 25% to 50% on imports of steel and aluminum. "We began with 25 and after studying more data, we realized that this was a great help but more assistance is needed." Kevin Hassett, White House economist, explained the decision at a conference on the steel industry in Washington. The increase will take effect at 12.00 am (0401 GMT). The tariff increase is applicable to all trading partners, except for Britain. This country has been the only one that has reached a preliminary agreement with the U.S. in the 90-day period of a pause from Trump's other tariffs. The tariff rate on steel and aluminum imported from the UK, which is not among the top exporters to the U.S. of either metal, will remain at 25% at least until July 9. Census Bureau data show that the levies are likely to hit U.S. trading partner Canada and Mexico the hardest. The two countries are ranked No. They rank No. Canada, as the largest exporter of aluminum to the U.S., is more vulnerable to the aluminum levies than any other country. It exports roughly twice as much aluminium to the U.S. About half of the aluminum in the United States comes from overseas sources. This week's unexpected rise in levies has shaken the markets for both metals, but especially aluminum. Aluminum prices have more than doubled this year. Import volumes will likely not be affected by the current price hikes if there is no capacity to increase production at home. Date for 'BEST OFFER ' The White House also wants trading partners to submit proposals on Wednesday that could help them avoid Trump’s "Liberation Day", hefty tariffs, from going into effect in just five weeks. Since Trump announced the pause in tariffs on April 9th, administration officials have been actively engaged in talks with several countries. However, only one deal has materialized. Even the agreement that provided the basis for the exemption from metals tariffs is more of an initial framework for further talks. The Trump team wants to close more deals in the remaining weeks. Reports on Monday stated that the U.S. trade representative was asking countries to submit their best proposals for a variety of areas including tariff and quota plans for purchases of U.S. agricultural and industrial products, and plans to remove any non-tariff obstacles. The letter also promises to provide answers "within a few days", and a "landing area" that includes the tariff rates expected for countries after the 90-day suspension of tariffs ends on July 8th. Most trading partners are concerned about whether or not they will continue to apply the 10% baseline tariff on all exports to the U.S. following that date. Karoline Leavitt, White House spokesperson confirmed the report Tuesday. She said: "USTR sent the letter to all our trading partners to remind them that the deadline was approaching." According to the letter, the Trump administration also requested any commitments regarding digital trade, economic security and country-specific commitments. (Additional reporting from Alexandra Alper, Washington; Writing and editing by Dan Burns.
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Brazilian prosecutors try to block $180 Million carbon credit deal
By Manuela Andreoni & Ricardo Brito SAO PAULO - Brazilian prosecutors have filed a lawsuit to cancel a $180m carbon offset scheme that was signed by the state of Para last year, with the support of a coalition of large corporations and wealthy governments. The lawsuit is a strong blow for the government of Para which will host the next global summit on climate change, COP30. It also strikes the carbon credit industry in general, who had been struggling to reposition themselves after years of being accused of fraud and abuse. Para is home to one of the most fragile sections of the Amazon Rainforest, the largest rainforest in the world. The prosecutors claimed that the state had not informed and consulted the affected communities. The prosecutors also claimed that Brazilian law does not allow the pre-sale carbon credits. In this case, the carbon in the trees is what the project claims will prevent them from being cut down. The state's carbon credit plan, according to the prosecutors, was approved "before COP 30" which put pressure on Indigenous Peoples and Traditional Communities in Para. Amazon.com Inc. and at least five companies have agreed to buy the credits via the LEAF Coalition for forest conservation, an initiative that the ecommerce giant, along with other firms and government, helped found in 2021. This group includes the United States, United Kingdom, and other countries. Requests for comments were not immediately answered by the Para government or Emergent, an organization that coordinates LEAF Coalition. This project is one of the first jurisdictional carbon credit schemes in the world, as it covers whole countries or states. This new design aimed to ease concerns about private projects by simplifying the accounting of credits. The company aimed to sell 12 million carbon credits for $15 each, based on the amount of carbon stored in trees it would prevent from being deforested. (Reporting, writing and editing by Manuela Andreoni. Additional reporting by Ricardo Brito. Editing by Leslie Adler.)
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US Skips UK Steel and Aluminum Tariffs as Both Countries Eye Quick Trade Deal
The United States announced on Tuesday that it would not double steel and aluminum tariffs on Britain. This announcement came hours after the UK Government said that the two countries had agreed to a deal on tariff relief as soon as possible. The U.S. announcement that exempts British aluminum and steel from a 50% tariff increase came in a Tuesday proclamation by U.S. president Donald Trump. The U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer and British Trade Minister Jonathan Reynolds met on Tuesday in Paris during an OECCD meeting. A spokesperson for the UK government said: "The UK was first to secure a deal with the U.S. in the last month, and we are committed to protecting British businesses and jobs in key sectors." We're happy that, as a result our agreement with the U.S. steel in the UK will not be subjected to these additional duties. We will continue working with the U.S. in order to implement our agreement which will remove the 25% U.S. steel tariffs. On May 8, British Prime Minister Keir starmer and Trump agreed to lower tariffs for UK steel and car imports to the U.S. Britain also agreed to lower tariffs for beef and ethanol. However, the implementation of the agreement has been delayed. UK Steel, the industry body for British steel, had warned earlier that doubling tariffs would cause a "body-blow" to British steel. Greer and Reynolds, Britain's Trade Ministry said Greer met with Reynolds to discuss the pace at which the bilateral trade agreement of May 8 was being implemented. Both sides agreed that consumers and businesses in each country had to begin to feel its benefits. The British trade ministry released a statement following the meeting that said "The two discussed their shared desire for the Economic Prosperity Deal to be implemented as soon as possible, including agreements on sectoral duties." Greer's office did not immediately comment on the meeting. Starmer's spokesperson stated that once the deal was implemented, it would eliminate tariffs for the "majority" of steel products exported to the United States. "We'd continue to anticipate that this will be the case," regardless of Trump's 50% tariff. Sarah Jones, the minister of industry, was also reported to be meeting with steel industry representatives on Tuesday. Greer replied, in French, to reporters in Paris when asked earlier if 50% tariffs on Wednesday would be implemented, "We'll have to see." Reynolds is in Paris and Brussels for a three-day visit. He will meet with counterparts from the Group of Seven, OECD and other countries in Paris. Then he'll talk to EU Trade Commissioner Maros SEFCIOVIC. Last month, Britain signed deals with both the U.S., and the European Union, its two largest trading partners. However, these are not formal trade agreements and details have yet to be set. Plans to reduce red tape in the food industry are still being finalised with the EU agreement. Before the EU deal came into effect, Britain announced on Monday that it would eliminate border checks for fruit and vegetables imported to the EU. These were due to take place in July. Reporting by Alistair Smout, Leigh Thomas, Andrea Shalal, and Jasper Ward, in Washington, and Tomaszjanowski, Lisa Shumaker, and Bill Berkrot in London.
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BlackRock is removed from Texas' boycott list following its withdrawal from climate groups
Texas removed BlackRock on Tuesday from a list that was seen as boycotting energy companies. The New York asset manager only won this step after it drastically reduced its climate goals. Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar stated that the decision was a reflection of BlackRock's withdrawal from climate-related industry groups such as the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative. Hegar also pointed out that the firm had lowered its support of shareholder environmental resolutions, and supported a new Texas Stock Exchange. BlackRock has "acknowledged the real social costs and economic costs that are incurred by limiting investments in the oil and natural gas industry, both in Texas and worldwide," Hegar stated in a press release. Delisting will allow Texas state agencies, funds and other entities to easily do business with BlackRock. This could help BlackRock respond to claims made by Texas Attorney-General Ken Paxton regarding its environmental record. BlackRock's representatives have not yet commented. Hegar added BlackRock, and a number of European managers, to his list by 2022, under a law passed in the state the year before in response to Wall Street’s embrace at that time of environmental and social investments priorities. Faced with political pressure, BlackRock's rivals also quit industry climate groups, and reduced their support for shareholder proposals that called for change, such as emission limits or cuts. Climate activists and Democratic leaders have accused companies of lowering their standards in terms of environmental support. (Reporting and editing by Lisa Shumaker; Ross Kerber)
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Trump to waive Defense Production Act to boost critical minerals
U.S. president Donald Trump will cut some legal requirements including the approval of larger projects by Congress to boost domestic production. The government website shows that the document will be published in the Federal Register on Tuesday. The Defense Production Act is a U.S. statute that gives the president wide emergency powers in order to control domestic industries during times of national security. Trump invoked a law from the Korean War in March to boost domestic production of minerals that are critical for Washington's economic rival China. The law limits the president's power by requiring him to get congressional approval on projects exceeding $50 million dollars and limiting project completion dates to a one-year timeframe. According to a document seen, Trump will be expected to use these powers in an emergency. President Joe Biden used similar waivers during the COVID Pandemic to accelerate production of vaccines, medical equipment and other supplies. The White House didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. Reporting by Ernest Scheyder, Jarrett Renshaw and Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing and Chizu Nomiyama.
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Wall Street stocks rise on Nvidia and trade hopes
Investors awaited more clarity about Washington's tariff plans as they awaited potential negotiations between the United States with its trading partners. The White House announced on Monday that President Donald Trump will be speaking with Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week. This comes after Trump had accused China of breaking a Geneva accord to reduce tariffs and trade barriers. Beijing has said that it will protect its interests, and that this accusation is unfounded. According to a draft of a letter sent to the negotiating partners, the Trump administration is asking countries to submit their best offers on trade negotiations before Wednesday. Officials are trying to speed up talks with multiple partners in order to meet a deadline they set themselves. "The most important thing for investors is that the administration wasn't going to impose those much-larger-than-expected tariffs and just leave them on, which would have almost certainly led to a recession," said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management. The fact that the U.S. has so many trading partners, including China, Japan, UK, EU, etc., makes investors more optimistic about the possibility of avoiding a recession. Investors are feeling more confident that we won't be in a recession." In May, Trump's trade policies were softer, which allowed risky assets to recover. The benchmark S&P500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted their largest monthly percentage gains since November 2023. The preliminary data shows that the S&P 500 rose 34.59 points or 0.58% to 5,970.53 while the Nasdaq Composite increased 157.54 or 0.82% to 19,400.15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 219.19 points or 0.52% to 42,524.67. Nvidia's gains boosted the information technology sector. Broadcom, a chipmaker, hit a new record high following the announcement that it had begun shipping its latest networking chips designed to speed up AI. "Commentary about Trump and Xi speaking started yesterday, and chips will likely be a topic of discussion," Angelo Zino is a senior equity researcher at CFRA Research. "Given that Nivdia has been essentially locked out of China for the past few years, any discussion will tend to favor Nivdia or chips over anything else." The U.S. Labor Department reported that job openings increased, but layoffs increased, indicating a slower labor market due to tariffs impacting the economy outlook. Orders for Factory Products The April drop was sharp, as the initial boost from purchasing ahead of tariffs faded. Census Bureau data from the Commerce Department showed a drop of 3.7% after a jump unrevised by 3.4% in March. The release of the monthly jobs data will provide more information on how trade uncertainty affects the largest economy in the world. The day will be filled with speeches by central bank officials including Lisa Cook, President of the Fed Board, Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee, and Dallas President Lorie Logan. Kenvue shares fell, leading the declines in the benchmark S&P Index. The company, which produces consumer health products said at a Deutsche Bank Conference that retailers in China and the U.S. are destocking their products because of uncertainty about tariffs. Dollar General's shares surged after the discount retailer exceeded its quarterly sales expectations. JPMorgan upgraded the image-sharing platform Pinterest to overweight after it was rated neutral. Reddit shares fell on Tuesday after the social network platform was unavailable for more than 29,000 users, according to Downdetector.com. Reporting by Kanchana Chkravarty, Sukriti Gupta and Saeed Azhar from Bengaluru; editing by Devika Syamnath & Aurora Ellis
In India's northeast, heavy flooding has killed at least 34 people
Authorities and media reported on Monday that at least 34 people had died in India's Northeastern region following heavy floods and landslides during the past four days. The weather department also predicted further heavy rain.
A government statement stated that more than 1,000 tourists were evacuated from the Himalayan State of Sikkim on Monday. In Meghalaya, army rescue teams were deployed to save over 500 people who were trapped in flood-ravaged areas.
On Sunday, hundreds of shelters were opened in the hilly districts Rangamati and Bandarban in Bangladesh.
Authorities have warned that there could be more landslides or flash floods and urged residents to stay alert.
India's northeastern region and Bangladesh are both prone to torrential rainfall that can cause deadly flash floods and landslides, which affect millions of people each year.
Images from ANI news agency showed that the streets and houses of Assam’s Silchar were flooded. Fallen trees littered roads.
"We face a lot challenges. My child's bed is submerged under water. What would we do in this situation? Sonu Devi, a Silchar resident, told ANI that she kept herself awake all night.
(source: Reuters)