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Stocks fall as investors consider geopolitical data and US data.
Oil prices remained stable?on Thursday, after a recent decline. Stocks fell as investors assessed the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions. labour market data. Top U.S. officials stated on Wednesday that the country must control Venezuela's oil sales and revenue indefinitely in order to stabilize the economy of the latter, rebuild its oil industry, and ensure that it acts in America’s interest. As part of Donald Trump's aggressive campaign to control oil flows in America, the U.S. also seized on the same day two Venezuelan-linked oil tanks in the Atlantic Ocean, including one that was sailing under the Russian flag. The fall of Nicolas Maduro continues to dominate headlines, and the majority of the market's reaction has been in commodities. The price of oil has fallen this week due to the possibility of increased Venezuelan crude production. However, they have recovered on Thursday. U.S. crude rose 0.54% to $56.29 per barrel while Brent crude futures climbed 0.55% to $60.29. Daniel Hynes is ANZ's senior commodity strategist. He said that the market's reaction to Trump's comments about Venezuelan oil control was a bit misplaced. Oil prices would rise if the U.S. controlled oil sales continued to be restricted or sanctioned. I suspect this is the reason why prices have recovered this morning. Stocks traded mostly lower in Asia, after a strong start of the year that saw markets reach new highs, despite global geopolitical divisions. The Nikkei, Japan's stock market index, fell 1.2% while MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan dropped 0.6%. China's CSI300 blue chip index fell 0.8%. Nasdaq Futures declined 0.35% while S&P500 futures rose 0.22%. The EuroStoxx 50 futures fell 0.12%, while the FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. Geopolitical headlines have the upper hand. Investors are reducing their Japan "beta" due to China's export ban on dual-use products and the potential risk of rare earth. Stocks of Japanese chemical companies fell Thursday, while their Chinese counterparts rose. This was after China's Commerce Ministry announced that it would launch an anti-dumping investigation into the imports of chemicals for chipmaking. Tensions between China and Japan are escalating. U.S. No-Farm Payrolls are Up Next Investors also had their eyes on the U.S. Jobs report, due on Friday. This could provide more clarity about the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. Goldman Sachs analysts said that they expect a rise of 70,000 nonfarm payrolls above the consensus in December and are expecting the unemployment rate will edge down to 4.5 percent. Overnight, the release of a number of data released painted a mixed image of the U.S. labor market. It appears to be stuck in "no hire, no fire". The November JOLTS Report indicates that the labor turnover is still low. In a recent note, Wells Fargo economists said that the low churn has led to a fragile balance between labor supply and demand. We expect the job growth rate to be subdued, as firms are still hesitant to expand their headcount. The readings didn't change the market's expectations for two more Fed reductions this year, and kept currency movements muted on Friday. The euro was little changed at $1.1681 and sterling last purchased $1.3458. The dollar index was unchanged at 98.71, and the yen increased slightly to 156.67. Spot gold fell 0.71% to $4,420.43 per ounce. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; Rae Wee)
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Morning bid Europe-Trump's loud talk is not heard by investors
The day ahead for European and global markets on Thursday Donald Trump has been the subject of many headlines over the last 24 hours. He promised to stop defense contractors from paying dividends and buying back shares until weapons production increased. He supported a bipartisan bill that targeted countries doing business in Russia. The United States was also removed from dozens of U.N. and international organizations. His vice president said that the U.S. would exert "incredible" pressure on Venezuela by controlling its oil sales. Trump's plans for Greenland are also worth mentioning. But the markets don't seem to give a damn. Maybe there's just too much noise to get investors interested. Analysts said that while stocks were mixed during the Asian session of Thursday, a modest pullback is only natural following a "stellar" start to the new year and not an increasing sign of market alarm. Samsung Electronics' forecast of a record operating profit for the fourth quarter could give investors yet another reason to remain bullish about all things AI. The majority of market reactions to the recent developments in Venezuela have been concentrated in commodities. Other asset classes, however, remain largely driven by economic data and ignore the global geopolitical tensions. After two days of declines in oil prices, investors bought futures as the U.S. crude inventory draw was larger than expected. Sources have confirmed that Chevron has been in discussions with the U.S. Government to extend a license for its operations in Venezuela. This will allow it to increase crude exports into its refineries, and to sell to other buyers. Shares in Japanese chemical companies fell Thursday, while their Chinese competitors' shares jumped. This was after China’s Commerce Ministry announced that it would launch an anti-dumping investigation into the imports of chemicals for chipmaking. It is the latest indication of the strained bilateral relations between the two countries. Nikkei is not far away from a record high and has already risen 2% this year. After a flurry of data on the labour market, released Wednesday, little has changed in terms of Federal Reserve's expectations. Investors are currently pricing in a two-rate cut this year. The nonfarm payrolls data due out on Friday is expected to show that the unemployment rate dropped to 4.5% in December from 4.6% last November. This would support the theory that rates don't need to drop dramatically. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday. - German industrial orders (November) UK House Prices (December) - Euro zone producer prices (November) Weekly U.S. jobless claims
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Investors await important jobs data to see if gold will fall against the dollar
Gold prices fell 'on Thursday due to a strong dollar. Investors were preparing for a major jobs report that will be released later this week. This could give more insight into the U.S.'s monetary policy and they are also assessing U.S. pressure against Venezuela. As of 0344 GMT spot gold fell 0.3% to $4440.67 an ounce, dropping from a high reached in the previous session. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery also fell by 0.3%, to $4449.60. "Traders are weighing up heightened geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.'s intervention in Venezuela, and the prospect of Greenland becoming a flashpoint due to Trump's 'Donroe Doctrine,' against the?macroeconomic signal from the United States," Bernard Sin, Regional Director- Greater China, MKS PAMP. Sin said that despite the fact that investors are still cautious about volatility and potential profit-taking, they remain balanced. Bullion is only about $110 from the record-high of $4,549.71, which was hit on December 29. Gains have been curtailed by a strong dollar and profit taking. Data released on Wednesday revealed that U.S. employment opportunities dropped to their lowest level in 14 months, while hiring returned to its usual sluggish tone. This indicates a waning demand for workers. Investors will focus on U.S. Non-farm payrolls on Friday will provide more clues to monetary policy. As part of the aggressive efforts by President Donald Trump to control oil flows in America, the U.S. seizes two Venezuelan-linked oil tanks in the Atlantic Ocean, including one that was sailing under the Russian flag. Spot silver fell 0.4% from $83.62 to $77.85 an ounce after reaching a record high on December 29. HSBC predicted silver would trade between $58-$88 per ounce in 2026. This was due to tight physical supply and high gold prices. However, the bank warned that a correction could occur later in the year. After reaching a record high of $2,478.50 per ounce on Monday, spot platinum fell 0.8% to $2288.23. Palladium shed 0.5% to $1,756.42 per ounce. Ishaan arora, Bengaluru. Sumana Nandy & Janane Venkatraman edited the report.
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Iron ore prices fall after a four-day rally, as investors take profits
Iron ore futures fell on Thursday, after a four session rally, as investors booked profit on fears of a potential government intervention in China, the world's largest consumer. Prices were nearing the psychologically important level of $110 per ton. The most-traded contract for May iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange ended morning trade at 816 Yuan ($116.80), after reaching 831.5 Yuan earlier in session, which was the highest since July 22nd 2025. The benchmark iron ore for February?on Singapore Exchange fell by 0.78% at 0349 GMT to $108.2 per ton after reaching its highest level since September 30, 2024, $109.4. After China's central bank announced that it would ease its monetary policy, the persistent price rise was fueled by "hopes" of improved demand. The'sharp increase in prices' has caused investors to be cautious. They fear that Beijing may intervene in the future and'rein in the prices, as it did in 2023/ Analysts say that some steel mills have also resisted purchasing cargoes due to higher prices. According to data from the consultancy Mysteel, the volume of iron ore traded at China's major ports on Wednesday dropped by 54.9% when compared with a day before. The overall sentiment towards metals was also dampened by the fact that base metals such as copper and nickel fell from their Wednesday highs. Coking coal and coke, which are used to make steel, continued their rally on the DCE. According to Steelhome and two analysts who are familiar with this matter but have requested anonymity because they're not authorized to speak to the media, several major Chinese coke manufacturers considered a 15%-35% production cut, citing severe loss?at a Wednesday meeting. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mixed. Rebar gained 0.63%. Hot-rolled coils increased 0.51%. Wire rods lost 0.65%. Stainless steels dropped 0.29%. Reporting by Ruth Chai, Amy Lv and Sumana Nandy; editing by Sumana Niandy.
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Venezuela and oil prices are in focus after US inventory withdrawal
After two days of declining prices, oil prices increased on Thursday as the?U.S. Investors were encouraged to purchase futures as they watched Venezuela's developments. Brent crude futures rose 24 cents or 0.40% to $60.20 per barrel at 0343 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude crude was up 22 cents or 0.39%. The benchmarks for both oil and gas fell by more than 1% on Wednesday, with the market expecting plenty of supply in 2019. Morgan Stanley analysts, for example, estimate that there will be a surplus as high as 3,000,000 barrels a day during the first half 2026. Mitsuru Muraishi is an analyst with Fujitomi Securities. He said that the declines in prices on Thursday prompted some traders to purchase futures. Pullback buying has pushed prices a little higher, but persistent concerns about oversupply are limiting upside momentum. The downward trend will likely continue while markets watch developments in Venezuela," he said. He forecast that WTI would likely fall below $54. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude stockpiles fell by 3.8m barrels, to 419.1m barrels during the week ended January 2. This was in contrast with the analysts' expectation in a survey for a 447,000 barrel increase. As part of Donald Trump's aggressive campaign to control oil flows in America and force Venezuela to become an ally, the U.S. seizes two Venezuelan-linked oil tanks in the Atlantic Ocean, including one that was sailing under the Russian flag. Washington announced on Tuesday a deal to gain access to up $2 billion of Venezuelan crude. In a Tuesday social media post, Trump said that Venezuela would "turn over" between 30 million and fifty million barrels worth of "sanctioned" oil to the U.S. This would allow for the release of Venezuelan oil, which has been slowed down?due to a U.S. ban on tankers entering and leaving the country. ING analysts stated in a report that directing this oil to the U.S. could reduce the 'need for Venezuelan to cut production due to storage restrictions. Sources said that the deal could initially require a rerouting cargoes bound for 'China. Chinese independent refiners, which consume a large portion of Venezuelan oil imported by the country, could switch to Iranian oil in order to cover the shortfall. Trump and his advisors are planning to dominate Venezuela's oil industry for many years. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told his aides his initiative could lower oil prices as low as $50 per barrel. The report cited people who were familiar with the issue as saying that the U.S. was considering a plan to exert some control over Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA oil company, including purchasing and marketing the majority of its oil production.
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Vietnam seeks Russia agreement by January following Japan's withdrawal
The?government announced on Thursday that Vietnam's PM Pham Minh Chinh wanted talks with Russia about building a nuclear plant to be completed?this month. He also urged officials to seek out new?partners, after Japan pulled its support from a second project. Vietnam restarted its nuclear energy programme in 2017 after it was suspended in 2016. Hanoi has negotiated agreements with Russia and Japan for the construction of two power plants, each with a combined capacity between 4 and 6.4 gigawatts. The aim is to sign the agreements with Russia in September and the agreement with Japan by the end last year. According to an article posted on the website of the government news portal, Chinh informed officials that "progress had not been as anticipated, and many obstacles needed 'immediate attention. Such as the slow pace in negotiations on cooperation agreements which are heavily reliant on foreign 'partners. Naoki Ito, the ambassador of Japan to Vietnam in December, said that Japan had withdrawn from plans to build a nuclear power plant because of the ambitious goal set by the Vietnamese government to have it operational by 2035. The article stated that Chinh had instructed officials to finish talks with Russia by January and to find a partner to replace Japan in the second project. He also wanted to have the two nuclear power stations online "after 2030". The Russian embassy was not available to comment immediately. The country, which is home to major manufacturing operations of multinationals such as Samsung and Apple, has experienced many power outages due to the demand for electricity from its growing middle class and huge industrial sector. Power grids have also been affected by the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, like typhoons and droughts. The country is trying to increase its electricity production, mainly from renewables and natural gas. However, projects are being delayed and uncertain due to regulatory and price issues.
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Trump is considering taking control of Venezuela’s PDVSA and lowering oil prices to $50 a barrel, according to WSJ.
The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. president Donald Trump, along with his advisers, are planning to dominate the "Venezuelan Oil Industry" for many years. Trump told his aides that he believed his efforts could lower oil prices as low as $50 per barrel. The report cited people who were familiar with the situation as saying that the U.S. was considering a plan in which they would exert?some control? over Venezuela's PDVSA state-run oil firm, including purchasing and marketing the majority of its oil production. Could not confirm immediately the report. The White House didn't immediately respond to the?'?zeit imediat??'? a?? or?'???'??'? The?White House did not immediately respond to?' The U.S. is looking to gain control over PDVSA by negotiating a deal that would allow it to purchase and distribute oil from the company, as well as through joint ventures in the past with major oil companies like Chevron. PDVSA announced earlier on Wednesday that it was progressing in its negotiations with the United States regarding oil sales. A board member confirmed this. The U.S. must buy cargoes for international prices. Washington announced a deal on Tuesday with Caracas for?access to up to $ 2 billion in Venezuelan crude. This is a sign the Venezuelan government has responded to Trump's demands that they be open to U.S. companies and risk military intervention. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Christian Schmollinger, and Gnaneshwarrajan in Bengaluru)
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Stocks tremble as investors consider geopolitical data and US data, while oil prices rise
Oil prices stabilized on Thursday, after their recent decline. Stocks were off to a rough start as investors assessed implications of deepening?geopolitical tensions and mixed U.S. labor market data. The top U.S. officials stated on Wednesday that the country "needs" to control Venezuela's oil revenue and sales indefinitely in order to stabilize the economy of the country, rebuild its oil industry and ensure the nation acts in America's best interests. As part of Donald Trump's aggressive campaign to control oil flows in America, the U.S. also seized on the same day two Venezuelan-linked oil tanks in the Atlantic Ocean, including one that was sailing under the Russian flag. The fall of Nicolas Maduro continues to dominate headlines, and the majority of market reaction has been in commodities. The price of oil has fallen this week due to the possibility of increased Venezuelan crude production. However, they have recovered on Thursday. U.S. crude rose 0.7% to $56.38 per barrel while Brent crude futures increased 0.68% to $60.37. Daniel Hynes is ANZ's senior commodities strategist. He said that the market's reaction to Trump's comments about Venezuelan oil control "looks a bit misplaced". The U.S.'s control over oil sales may mean that sanctions or restrictions will remain in place for the short-term, which is a?booster for oil prices. "I suspect that's why the prices are rising this morning." Stocks were mixed elsewhere in the Asian session after a strong start of the New Year that brought markets to new highs, despite global geopolitical divisions. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fluctuated between gains and losses, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.74%. Nasdaq Futures declined 0.02% while S&P500 futures rose 0.05%. European futures were lower. Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. Geopolitical headlines will drive the market. Investors are trimming their "Japan beta" because of China's dual use export ban and the potential risk associated with rare earths. Japan called China's recent ban on exports of dual-use items for its military as "absolutely inacceptable", amid the threat of further restrictions on rare earths, which are vital to both economies. U.S. No-Farm Payrolls are Up Next Investors also had their eyes on the U.S. Jobs report, due on Friday. This could provide additional clarity on the Federal Reserve rate outlook. Goldman Sachs analysts said that they expect a rise of 70,000 nonfarm payrolls above the consensus in December and that the unemployment rate will edge down to 4.5%. A slew?of data?releases over the weekend painted a mixed image of the U.S. labor market. It appears to be stuck in a state of "no fire, no hire"?. The November JOLTS Report indicates that the labor turnover is still low. In a recent?note, Wells Fargo economists said that the low churn has led to a fragile balance between labor demand & labor supply. We expect the job growth rate to be subdued, as firms are still cautious about adding new employees. The readings didn't change the market expectations for two more Fed reductions this year, and kept currency movements muted on Friday. The euro was little changed at $1.1673, while sterling bought $1.3454 last. The dollar index was steady at 98.77, but the yen slipped to 156.91. Spot gold fell 0.11% to $4,448.20 per ounce.
US CPC predicts ENSO neutral conditions for June to August with 74% probability.
The United States Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday that El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions will be preferred in the Northern Hemisphere during summer 2025 (74% probability between June and August).
It added that the chances of ENSO neutrality will exceed 50% between August and October 2025.
Why is it important? La Nina is a part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO), which affects the water temperatures throughout the Pacific Ocean.
La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which increases the risk of droughts and floods. This can have an impact on crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to better weather and possibly higher crop yields.
CONTEXT Due to El Nino's adverse effects and the limited water resources available for irrigation, the sugar production estimate has been reduced to 28 million tonnes. This was revealed in a report released on May 5 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Post at New Delhi.
KEY QUOTES AccuWeather’s international forecaster Jason Nicholls, the lead for AccuWeather, said: "A neutral ENSO has no usual conditions as a neutren ENSO results in conditions influencing both local and global patterns."
The pattern of this spring has caused some concerns about dryness in the UK and Northern Europe, while southern Europe was wet. The pattern is changing heading into the summer, with more chances for rain in northern Europe. This could improve crop prospects. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)