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US CPC predicts ENSO neutral conditions for June to August with 74% probability.

The United States Climate Prediction Center announced on Thursday that El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions will be preferred in the Northern Hemisphere during summer 2025 (74% probability between June and August).

It added that the chances of ENSO neutrality will exceed 50% between August and October 2025.

Why is it important? La Nina is a part of the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO), which affects the water temperatures throughout the Pacific Ocean.

La Nina causes cooler water temperatures which increases the risk of droughts and floods. This can have an impact on crops. When ENSO neutral, water temperature stays around average, leading to better weather and possibly higher crop yields.

CONTEXT Due to El Nino's adverse effects and the limited water resources available for irrigation, the sugar production estimate has been reduced to 28 million tonnes. This was revealed in a report released on May 5 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Post at New Delhi.

KEY QUOTES AccuWeather’s international forecaster Jason Nicholls, the lead for AccuWeather, said: "A neutral ENSO has no usual conditions as a neutren ENSO results in conditions influencing both local and global patterns."

The pattern of this spring has caused some concerns about dryness in the UK and Northern Europe, while southern Europe was wet. The pattern is changing heading into the summer, with more chances for rain in northern Europe. This could improve crop prospects. (Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)