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La Nina weather condition 60% likely to develop from June-August, says United States forecaster

A U.S. government weather condition forecaster expects an about 60% chance of the La Nina weather pattern characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean emerging in the 2nd half of 2024.

There is an 85% possibility that a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is most likely to occur by April-June, National Weather Condition Service's Climate Forecast Center (CPC) said in a regular monthly projection on Thursday.

The end of El Nino would eliminate the vertical wind shear that tends to minimize the variety of storms in the Atlantic basin. Even more, warm ocean temperature levels ought to help with the development of stronger storms, Citi Research said in a note.

India is expected to see a normal monsoon in 2024, personal weather forecasting agency Skymet stated, promising some respite after a forecast of more-than-normal heat wave days in the summertime preceding the June-September rainy season.

We are anticipating seasonal to slightly above typical rains for the Midwest, Delta, and main and northern Plains in the U.S., which ought to result in greater corn and soybean production, said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist at Maxar.

Southern Africa is reeling from its worst drought in years, owing to a mix of naturally occurring El Nino - when an unusual warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific radiates heat into the air leading to hotter weather condition throughout the world - and higher average temperatures produced by greenhouse gas emissions.

Meanwhile, Japan's weather condition bureau stated on Monday there was an 8% chance of the El Nino phenomenon ending during the northern hemisphere spring.

(source: Reuters)