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Policymakers at the ECB warn of rising inflation risks

Policymakers at the ECB warn of rising inflation risks
Policymakers at the ECB warn of rising inflation risks

Three policymakers on Friday said that the European Central Bank might need to increase 'interest rates again.

The ECB kept rates the same on Thursday, and gave strong indications that a rate hike is likely in September as oil prices have returned to around $100 a barrel and natural gas prices continue to surge.

Even though policymakers' public comments were more measured, this has reinforced the expectation that the ECB would?pull the trigger? after the summer holiday.

Joachim Nagel, Bundesbank President, said in a press release that "we?are observing in the Middle East the situation remains extremely fragile." "We still face intense uncertainty."

Nagel said that the ECB was in a 'good position' to respond to a deterioration of the inflation outlook.

The ECB's June projection was based on a scenario where oil prices would be near "baseline". This assumption assumed that policy would tighten in the months to come.

Other people have expressed similar views.

In a recent blog post, Slovenian Central Bank Chief Primoz Dlenc stated that the risks remain high. He added that the developments surrounding the war in Iran exacerbate the risk.

The ECB stated on Thursday that the risks of economic growth are more negative than expected, while inflation is more positive.

Martin Kocher of the Austrian central banks said that a rate hike could be needed, but it was unclear if this would happen in September.

"I believe everyone knows that if inflation expectations, such as those for the medium term, are deteriorating, there is a need to act," he said on Bloomberg TV.

The financial markets expect at least 'two more rate increases from the ECB, with the first fully 'priced-in by October and second by February. However, market economists polled only expect a single rate hike in September. (Reporting and editing by Francosi Murphey and Balazs Coranyi; Kira Donovan, Jamie Freed and Kira Donovan)

(source: Reuters)