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Key data: Shares stable in the week following big central bank decisions

European shares rose on Monday, as Wall Street futures indicated a recovery after last week's sell-off. However, investor caution limited gains at the beginning of a week that will be dominated by important central bank decisions and economic reports. The benchmark STOXX index of 600 large European companies rose 0.8%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% after U.S. shares had fallen on Friday due to concerns about a bubble in artificial-intelligence stocks and lingering inflation.

Asia shares have been less buoyant due to renewed concerns in China's real estate market. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 1.2%. This was led by a fall of up to 2.7% on South Korean shares. South Korea is one of the best-performing markets in the world this year.

Marc Velan is the head of investments for Lucerne Asset Management, based in Singapore. He said that "the risk-off tone in Asia appears to be more a spillover effect from last Friday's sale in U.S. tech and momentum than a regional catalyst."

The unwinding of the AI-capex trade has weighed down on global risk appetite. And?in thin liquidity at year's end, these moves tend to spread quickly across regions." The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond last fell 3 basis points to 4.1626%, as investors awaited economic data releases and central bank decisions.

CHINA PROPERTY WORRIES The U.S. Dollar slipped by 0.1% against the Chinese Yuan traded offshore to reach 7.0486 yuan. This is the highest level it has been in over a year. Factory?output data and retail sales figures slowed down further in November. The official data released on Monday showed that the new home prices continued to decline in November. This indicates that the recovery of demand is still elusive, despite government promises to stabilize the sector. China Vanke announced that it would convene a second meeting of bondholders after the state-backed developer failed to obtain bondholder approval for an extension by one year to a bond payment due on Monday. This increased the risk of default and renewed concerns about the crisis hit property sector.

Jeff Zhang, Morningstar's equity analyst, said: "If Vanke ultimately defaults, the ramifications for the China property market can be significant." Investors are more likely to be concerned with the government's attitude toward bailouts, even for'safe' names.

CENTRAL BANK LOOM DECISIONS

The Bank of Japan, among the central banks that will make decisions this week is expected to increase rates by 25 basis point to 0.75%. Meanwhile, the Bank of England could cut rates to 3.75%.

Along with Sweden's Riksbank, and Norway's Norges Bank, the European Central Bank will likely hold interest rates. Investors can also catch up with economic data delayed by the U.S. shutdown. This includes the November jobs report and the consumer price index.

Ben Bennett, the head of investment strategy Asia for L&G Asset Management based in Hong Kong said: "It is worth treating this week's numbers with a grain of salt due to the difficulties of collecting data and the direct impact of the shutdown on the economy."

We'll need to wait until the year 2026 before we can get a better idea of how the U.S. economy is doing." economy." Stocks in Japan gained support on Monday after the BOJ’s closely-watched "tankan” survey revealed that the business sentiment of large?manufacturers had reached a four year high. This indicated the economy could be weathering the impact of higher U.S. Tariffs. The kiwi currency fell 0.4% to $0.5781 following comments by New Zealand's central bank governor Anna Breman, who warned that financial market conditions have tightened over the past few weeks. This has led investors to reduce their expectations of rate hikes next year.

Oil prices have been stable in commodities as investors balance supply disruptions due to escalating U.S. - Venezuelan tensions, oversupply fears and the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal.

Brent crude futures

At 1240 GMT the price of U.S. West Texas intermediate crude oil was down 0.52% to $60.79 per barrel.

The price of oil was $57.1 per barrel, a 0.6% decrease. Imperial Oil announced on Sunday that it had sent out a?fire alert at its 120,000 barrels per day refinery facility located in Ontario, Canada. Russia, meanwhile, said that a Ukrainian drone did not damage an oil refinery located in Afipsky. Steve Witkoff, the U.S. ambassador to Berlin said that "a lot of advances were made" on the geopolitical side in the peace talks in Berlin to end the Ukraine conflict. Gold's recent rally has now entered its fifth day, as it nears a record high price of $4381.21. Spot bullion was last up 1% to $4,344 Cryptocurrency prices snapped a 3-day losing streak with bitcoin up 1.4% to $89,711 and ether up 2.2% at $3,151. (Reporting and editing by Gregor Stuart Hunter, Sam Holmes, Louise Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama, and Shri Navaratnam)

(source: Reuters)