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Raw sugar prices fall to their lowest level in five years, and cocoa is also falling.

Raw sugar futures fell to their lowest level in five years on Wednesday, with the possibility of a large global surplus for the 2025/26 crop season pushing prices down.

Dealers say that the expected increase in sugar production in India, which is the second largest producer in the world, has added to the concerns about excess supplies. Forecasts are beginning to rise for the anticipated size of a global surplus during the 2025/26 harvest season.

Raw sugar futures fell 0.1% to 14.21 cents a lb at 1147 GMT, after hitting a low of 14.05cents.

This year's monsoon rainfall has contributed to the increase in production. However, it appears that less cane is being diverted for ethanol production than expected.

In a recent note, broker Czarnikow stated that "we now think India will produce more than sugar in 2025/26 with 32.8 million tonnes due to less sucrose going to ethanol."

India produced approximately 26.1 million metric tonnes in 2024/25.

Czarnikow increased its forecast of the global sugar surplus in 2025/26 by 1.2 millions tons to 8.7million tons.

White sugar increased 0.4%, to $415.10 per ton.

Futures cocoa prices eased due to concerns over a weakening demand after the price surge of last year.

Barry Callebaut announced on Wednesday that the company expects a decline of a single-digit percentage in sales for its next financial year due to high cocoa prices.

New York cocoa dropped 0.1%, to $6,594 per ton. London cocoa, however, was down 0.25%, at 4,837 pounds.

The price of Robusta coffee increased by 0.2%, to $4,689 per ton. The market is closely watching the progress and impact of Typhoon Kalmaegi, which could cause more rain in Vietnam's coffee growing regions, resulting in a slower harvest, or even quality problems.

Arabica coffee increased 0.7%, to $4.08 a lb. (Reporting and editing by Nigel Hunt)

(source: Reuters)