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Prices of copper remain near their multi-month highs due to supply constraints and US tariff fears
The London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) both held copper near its highest level since late March. This was due to concerns about a tight supply in the region and an increase in shipments to the U.S., as traders rush to avoid potential import tariffs. As of 0103 GMT the LME's three-month copper contract was unchanged at $10,05 per metric tonne, but it hovered close to its highest level since March 26. The SHFE's most traded copper contract gained 0.27%, to 80,840 Yuan ($11285.77). This is its highest level since March 27. The United States may decide to deal with the copper tariff later. This has given traders more time to transport copper to the United States, when prices are higher. U.S. Comex Copper Futures climbed 2% on Wednesday to $5.199 per pound, with a premium of 14% over the LME copper contracts. The total copper stock in LME registered warehouses is still near its lowest level since August 2023 despite a small rebound over the past two days. Stocks have fallen 76% since the middle of February, due to cargoes being rushed into the United States after its investigation on copper imports. SHFE lead rose 0.7%, to 17,290 Yuan per ton. Zinc was up 0.7%, at 22,370 Yuan. Nickel climbed 0.6%, to 121550 Yuan. Aluminium edged higher by 0.2%, to 20,710 Yan. LME lead rose 0.2% to $2.064.5 per ton. Nickel climbed 0.15% to $15.325, tin grew 0.15% to $33,765, aluminium slid 0.1% to $2.622.5 and zinc fell 0.11% at $2.754.5. Click or to see the latest news in metals, and other related stories. DATA/EVENTS - (GMT 0750 France HCOB Services Composite PMI 060755 Germany HCOB Services Composite Final pmi 060800 EU HCOB Services Composite Final pmi 0830 UK Reserve Assets June 0830 US Non Farm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Average Earnings YY Jun 1230 US International trade $ May 1400 US Factory orders MM May1400 US ISM N Manufacturing PMI june
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Investors wait for US payroll data to get Fed policy clues
Investors held off on making large bets as they awaited the U.S. Payroll data that would be released later in the day to get a better idea of the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. As of 0211 GMT spot gold fell 0.3% per ounce to $3346.47, while U.S. Gold Futures edged up 0.1% to $3357.20. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong stated that gold appears to be consolidating in the $3,320-$3,360 range. The market is waiting to see what happens with U.S. Non Farm Payroll data and ISM Services' PMI before taking any significant positions. ADP released data showing that private payrolls in the United States fell by 33,000 positions in June. This was the first drop in over two years as economic uncertainty hindered hiring. Low layoffs continue to stabilize the labour market. Investors await the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday. According to a survey, it is expected that 110,000 new jobs were added in June, compared to 139,000 in May. On Wednesday, Donald Trump, president of the United States, announced that the U.S. would impose a 20% tariff, which is lower than what was promised, on a variety of goods coming from Vietnam. The Southeast Asian country is the U.S. tenth largest trading partner. Wong stated that "the Vietnam trade deal is likely to have already been priced in the market. I think now the primary concern is the status other deals with major countries which are still in limbo," The U.S.-India negotiators worked to reach a deal that would reduce tariffs before Trump's deadline of July 9. Trump did not indicate that he would extend the deadline for negotiations despite stalled talks with Japan, another important trade partner. However, he expressed optimism regarding an India agreement. Gold that does not yield tends to do well in an environment of economic uncertainty or low interest rates. Silver spot fell by 0.6%, to $36.37 an ounce. Platinum lost 1.5%, to $1397.91, and palladium dropped 1.4%, to $1138.73. (Reporting and editing by Sumana Aich and Rashmi Nandy, Bengaluru)
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China's North and West on Alert after Deadly Floods Caused by Sweeping Rains
China's west and north were braced on Thursday for flash floods, as the annual "Plum Rains" left a path of destruction. This prompted thousands of rescue workers from across China to help pull people out of floodwaters. The red alerts traced the rains from the southwest province of Sichuan, through the northwestern provinces of Gansu and Liaoning to the northeast province. The state media reported that over 1,000 rescue workers had been dispatched on Wednesday to the town Taiping, in central China's Henan Province, after torrential rainfall caused a river nearby to burst it banks. Five people were killed in a flash flooding and three others are still missing. On Thursday morning, trains to the capital Beijing were suspended. Flight delays and cancellations occurred at one of the airports in the city late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. Meteorologists have linked climate change to extreme rainfall and severe floods. These events pose a major challenge to policymakers, as they threaten to overwhelm the ageing flood defences and displace millions. They also threaten to wreck havoc on China’s $2.8 trillion agriculture sector. Natural disasters caused economic losses of over $10 billion in July last year, during which the "Plum Rains" - so named because they coincide with plums maturing along China's Yangtze River at the time of the East Asia Monsoon – usually reach their peak. Local media reported that in China's southwest province of Guangxi several buildings have slid over the past two days as their foundations gave out due to waterlogged soil. The national meteorological center forecasts scorching heat along eastern coast of the country.
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Oil drops on signs of weak US Demand ahead of Key Jobs Report
On Thursday, oil prices fell, reversing the gains of the previous session. This was due to concerns about weak U.S. Demand after data from the government showed an unexpected build-up in inventories. Brent crude futures dropped 24 cents or 0.35% to $68.87 per barrel at 0044 GMT, after rising 3% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 24 cents or 0.36% to $67.21 per barrel, after previously rising 3.1%. Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that domestic crude stocks rose by 3.8 millions barrels, to 419,000,000 barrels. In a poll, analysts had predicted a drop of 1.8 millions barrels. The gasoline demand fell to 8,6 million barrels a day, causing concern about the consumption during peak summer driving in the United States. The benchmarks rose on Wednesday, after Iran passed a law that suspended cooperation with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog. This sparked fears the long-running dispute over Middle East producer Iran's nuclear program could once again escalate into an armed conflict. The U.S. reached a deal with Vietnam that imposes 20% tariffs on most of the Southeast Asian nation's exports. This gives investors a feeling of economic stability in international trade, which could lead to a higher demand for crude oil. Analysts said that the market will closely monitor the release of Thursday's key U.S. employment report to determine the timing and depth of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions in the second half this year. Lower interest rates may spur economic activity and, in turn, increase oil demand. Analysts cautioned that there was no correlation between the private payrolls report and government data. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger; Nicole Jao)
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Bunge and grain handler Viterra complete long-delayed mega merger
Bunge Global, a global agribusiness, announced that it had officially closed the long-delayed $34 billion mega deal with Glencore-backed Viterra. This announcement was made two years ago. The merger creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, at a time when slumping grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector. Bunge closed Wednesday's trading 1.4% higher. Bunge, based in Missouri, has experienced a dramatic turn-around since the deal was announced. In April 2019, Greg Heckman took over as CEO of the company after Soren Schroder was forced to resign by investors. The Chinese market regulator approved the merger on conditional terms last month, clearing the final hurdle. Bunge announced on Wednesday that Heckman would remain as CEO of the combined business, while Bunge's Chief Financial Officer John Neppl would also retain his position. Viterra CEO David Mattiske, and Bunge co-president Julio Garros will serve as co-chief operational officers. Analysts say that the merger with Netherlands' Viterra will enhance Bunge’s grain exporting business and its oilseed processing business in the United States. Bunge has a smaller US presence than rivals ADM or Cargill. Bunge will also be able to expand its export capacity, as well as their grain storage and handling capabilities in Canada and Australia. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed in Chicago, with Karl Plume reporting from Chicago)
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Former Jan. 6 defendant sentenced to life for plotting to kill FBI agents
According to court records and the U.S. Justice Department, a man who participated in the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 was sentenced on Wednesday to life imprisonment for conspiring to murder the FBI agents who were investigating him. Court records indicate that Edward Kelley, a former federal employee, was convicted of conspiring to murder federal workers, solicitation of a crime violent and influencing an official of the federal government by threats in November. The prosecution claimed that Kelley and another man planned to attack an FBI field office located in Knoxville, Tennessee using car bombs, incendiary devices, and drones. According to a Justice Department release, he was recorded discussing his plans to "take their office out" if arrested. The prosecution alleged that Kelley had compiled a "kill-list" of federal law enforcers based in the region and discussed assassinating FBI agents in their homes or in public places. Austin Carter, his co-defendant in the plot, has pleaded guilty and will be sentenced by August. Kelley was found guilty of several charges in a separate trial, including assaulting police officers, for his involvement in the storming of the Capitol. This case was dismissed in January, before Kelley was sentenced. It was part of the sweeping clemency granted by President Donald Trump to all 1,600 criminally charged individuals in connection with the attack. The attack on Capitol Hill was a failed effort by Trump supporters in order to prevent congressional certification that Trump had lost the 2020 presidential elections to Democrat Joe Biden. Kelley said that Trump's pardon of the Tennessee case should be extended because it related to his behavior at the Capitol. The Justice Department during Trump's second term opposed this effort, and a later judge rejected it.
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Greek firefighters fight wildfires on the island of Crete
Greek firefighters fought a fire that raged in the popular vacation destination Crete on Wednesday, burning forestland, threatening homes, and forcing the evacuation of tourists and residents from at least four settlements. The Greek fire brigade said that at least 155 firefighters were battling the flames along the southeast coast of the largest island of Greece, in the municipality Ierapetra. They were assisted by 38 engines, water trucks and other vehicles. The fire, which started in the afternoon was exacerbated by strong winds, which hampered efforts to fight it and reignited its fronts. The fire brigade reported that more reinforcements would be arriving by Athens via boat and plane. The fire is still burning and is very difficult to control, a fire brigade officer said under condition of anonymity. He attributed the difficulties of the operation the strong winds as well as the terrain. Local TV stations reported some houses had been damaged. No injuries have been reported so far. The authorities had ordered the evacuation earlier of Achlia, and three other settlements within the area. Local officials reported that 3,000 people who evacuated villages earlier were moved to temporary shelters. Greece, located at the southernmost tip of Europe, is frequently hit by wildfires, especially during its hot, dry summers. However, authorities blame a rapidly changing climate for the more destructive fires that have occurred in recent years. On Wednesday night, Greek firefighters also tried to control a wildfire that was raging uncontrollably in the northern Chalkidiki region and on the island Kythira. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Renee Maltezou)
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Stocks reach record highs, gilt yields soar on Finance Minister uncertainty
The global stock market rose to record levels on Wednesday, after U.S. labor data revealed an unexpectedly low reading. Meanwhile, British government bond yields soared amid speculation over the future of Britain's finance minister. ADP's National Employment Report shows that private payrolls fell by 33,000 last month, after a downwardly-revised 29,000 job increase in May. This is well below the 95,000 jobs expected by economists surveyed by. The data is released ahead of the government's payroll report on Thursday, but there is very little correlation between them. On Thursday, we will also see the weekly initial claims for unemployment. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, market expectations of a rate cut in July by the U.S. Federal Reserve increased to 27% following the release of the data. This is up from 20,7% the previous session. Jim Awad is the senior managing director of Clearstead Advisors LLC, New York. "An employment softening that induces the Fed to lower interest rates would be positive. But if it softens excessively, then this would be negative for growth and profit," he said. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow closed at record levels on Wall Street. This was boosted in part by a rebound in Tesla stock after it dropped 5.3% Tuesday. Tesla shares closed at 4.97% higher after the electric carmaker announced its quarterly deliveries. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 10.52 points or 0.02% to 44,484.42, while the S&P 500 rose by 29.41 points or 0.47% to 6,227.42, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 190.24 or 0.94% to 20,393.13. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 3.84 points or 0.42% to 921.24, after reaching an intraday high of 922.27. Meanwhile, the pan-European STOXX 600 closed with a 0.18% gain, boosted by renewable energy stocks and luxury stocks. The yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury notes rose. The benchmark U.S. 10 year note was up 3.4 basis point at 4.283%. British government bond rates surged at one point, jumping almost 23 basis points. This was the highest since October 2022. The jump came after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who appeared visibly upset in parliament a day after announcing a sharply reduced plan to cut benefits, spoke out. The yield of the 10-year government bonds, or gilts, last increased 16.8 basis points to 4.621%. The pound fell 0.83%, to $1.3631. It had dropped as high as 1.35%. This was the biggest percentage decline since June 17th. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currency) rose 0.13% to 96.7 and was on course to end a nine-day decline streak. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1801. Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that the U.S. will impose a tariff of 20% on Vietnam. This is lower than what was initially announced, as investors wait for progress in other deals. He said previously that he would not consider extending the deadline to negotiate with countries, despite negotiations with Japan failing to progress, but he still expected a deal to be reached with India. The Vietnam-U.S. deal announced today is a positive step in reducing uncertainty around trade. Not only does it have a direct impact on the market, but may also be viewed as indicating that more deals will follow over the next week. Investors also viewed Trump's massive spending and tax bill, which was expected to add $3.3 billion to the national debt and cut taxes. Republicans in the House of Representatives set up a vote that would reveal whether they have enough support to pass the bill out of Congress. U.S. crude rose 3.06%, to settle at $67.35 a barrel. Brent settled at $71.11 per barrel. This was up 2.98% for the day after Iran suspended its cooperation with the U.N. Nuclear Watchdog.
Why GM could suffer under Trump policies to 'save' Detroit car manufacturers
It may appear like U.S. Presidentelect Donald Trump's strategy to gut automotive emissions constraints and fuelefficiency requirements would be a boon to General Motors, America's leading purveyor of fullsized trucks and SUVs and its greatest tailpipe polluter.
Yet GM has emerged as Detroit's most significant prospective loser from Trump's expected automotive-policy shifts.
The car manufacturer may ultimately realize moderate benefits from eased contamination constraints. However GM deals with instant and serious dangers from the incoming administration's plans to end a $7,500. consumer electric-vehicle aid, initially reported ,. and to slap a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. GM. is amongst the most exposed business on both fronts because of. its aggressive EV investments and its substantial manufacturing of. U.S.-market vehicles in these surrounding nations.
GM did not comment on how Trump policies would impact its. company but stated in a statement that it would be a. positive partner on auto-industry concerns.
The automaker's plight underscores the more comprehensive industry. obstacle of tactical preparation for an existential clean-energy. transition-- in a capital-intensive business where item. advancement takes years-- while navigating regulative upheaval. from election to election.
Trump has actually argued that reducing pollution standards and. ending EV aids would conserve the U.S. market from a. job-killing EV mandate by Democratic President Joe Biden. But. allowing more emissions will not always make it possible for GM to offer more. of its most rewarding and polluting trucks, a mature company. it already fully makes use of: Full-sized trucks and SUVs accounted. for more than 40% of its shipments through the third quarter of. 2024, company data shows.
Neither can GM abandon its billions of dollars in. investments intending to completely electrify its fleet by 2035,. market experts said. Ending EV subsidies would come at a. especially bad time for GM due to the fact that it finally has a broad array. of electric offerings, from its high-end Cadillac Lyriq to its. mass-market Chevrolet Equinox, stated Morningstar Research. Solutions expert David Whiston.
It's too simplistic to say: 'They'll be fine to sell trucks. and SUVs,' he said. You can't simply shut off all the battery. plants and forget about EVs.
GM needs to likewise think about customer and regulative trends. worldwide, for example in China, where EVs and hybrids now. represent half of cars and trucks offered. GM and all other foreign. car manufacturers are rapidly losing sales worldwide's biggest car. market to homegrown EV makers that are greatly subsidized by. China's government. GM CEO Mary Barra stated in July that its. money-losing China business, once a profit engine, had actually ended up being. unsustainable without a restructuring.
Europe, a market GM just recently re-entered with an all-electric. lineup, likewise likely will continue policies promoting quick EV. adoption.
EV penetration is a long-lasting goal, GM CFO Paul. Jacobson stated at an auto conference just after Trump's election.
DOUBLE PROBLEM
GM's Equinox EV, its most inexpensive electric model,. beginning at $34,995, faces losing the $7,500 aid and also. getting struck with Trump's tax on imports. The car is built in. Mexico, in addition to the a little larger and pricier Chevrolet. Blazer EV.
GM's core truck service might likewise get greatly taxed: About. half of the more than 750,000 lorries GM expects to import this. year from Mexico and Canada are full-sized, gasoline-powered. pickups, according to business-analytics firm GlobalData.
GM's stock dropped 9% on Nov. 26, the day after Trump. posted his tariff threat on social media.
Detroit auto executives and analysts informed Reuters they do not. yet understand how seriously to take Trump's tariff threat, which he. described as retaliation for an intrusion of Unlawful Aliens. and drug traffickers.
Regardless of Trump's duplicated claims that foreign countries pay. U.S. tariffs, such taxes are paid by U.S. importers, including. car manufacturers. U.S. companies should either take in tariff expenses by. cutting profits or raising customer costs, or avoid them by. moving production to other countries.
The Trump transition group said in a statement that his. tariffs would produce jobs, raise wages and secure employees from. the unjust practices of foreign companies and foreign markets.. Trump's team did not discuss his auto-emissions and. electric-vehicle policies.
GM produces the most cars amongst Detroit car manufacturers in. Mexico and Canada, although the tariffs might also hit. Stellantis hard, according to a Barclays bank analysis. Both. automakers produce more than a third of their North American. fleets in the two countries, which are also significant suppliers of. U.S. lorry parts.
REGULATIVE REPRIEVE?
GM might get some regulatory relief if Trump eases emissions. constraints the Biden administration enacted last spring. Biden's rules would phase in stricter limits between 2027 and. 2032 to increase the EV shift.
Dropping those guidelines might potentially extend the life of. GM's gasoline-truck lineup and lower future compliance expenses;. the automaker has traditionally needed to buy regulative credits. from other manufacturers, consisting of Tesla, since its fleet has. surpassed emissions limitations.
However GM's regulative threats stay high. Future. administrations beyond Trump might crack down on pollution, and. California and more than a dozen other states already have. more stringent emissions requirements than the federal government. California prepares all light-duty automobiles to be EVs, plug-in. hybrids or hydrogen fueled by 2035.
This year, GM exceeded Stellantis as the automaker with the. highest average emissions per-vehicle-mile, according to. initial EPA information for the leading 14 manufacturers selling automobiles. in the United States.
Gas-powered trucks and SUVs drive GM's existing earnings. before interest and taxes, anticipated to strike more than $14 billion. this year, up from $12.4 billion in 2015. And big trucks are. amongst the most difficult designs to transform to battery power.
If you simply attempt to count on the golden goose, it works till it. no longer works, said Jeff Alson, a veteran former EPA engineer. who helped craft the Obama administration's vehicle-emissions. regulations.
UNCERTAIN ELECTRIC FUTURE
GM has traditionally invested more strongly in EVs than. its Detroit rivals. Yet EVs accounted for just 4% of GM sales. through the third quarter, compared to an 8% share for the U.S. market overall, up just somewhat from 7% throughout the same period. last year, according to Cox Automotive information.
GM assures investors that its huge bets will soon pay off. with its next-generation EVs. GM currently offers 10 U.S.-market. EVs, consisting of industrial vans, compared to Ford's three and. Stellantis' two.
GM CFO Jacobson acknowledged in October that GM has plowed. even more cash than some rivals into EV development. We dug a bigger hole very deliberately to build a foundation. in production and battery technology, he informed investors simply. before Trump's election.
Jacobson stated GM anticipated to narrow its EV losses next year. by $2 billion to $4 billion, without disclosing its overall annual. losses. Jacobson stuck by the prediction when questioned about. it after Trump's election at a conference, saying the wide variety. represented EV demand unpredictability.
GM wanted to ensure that we do not overpromise, Jacobson. said. Ultimately, the customer is going to identify our volume. of production..
(source: Reuters)