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MORNING BID - EUROPE - Stocks calm down, continue record run
Kevin Buckland gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The global stock market's march to higher peaks shows no sign of slowing down. Tokyo, Taipei, and Seoul were among the markets that soared to new peaks on Tuesday. This was after the Dow made the same move overnight on Wall Street. Once trading begins, the FTSE 600, DAX 100 and STOXX will likely extend their record-breaking runs. The political turmoil in Venezuela has not slowed the market. Investors have been grabbing oil and defense shares with a risk-free attitude. Crude oil traders are still unsure of what all this means. The $1 per barrel gains made on Monday are not sustained. The U.S. has a continuing oil embargo against Venezuela, and the country is running out of storage. Reports indicate that President Trump is scheduled to meet with U.S. oil executives in the coming week to discuss increasing Venezuelan crude production. However, analysts believe it will be many years before meaningful increases in capacity are achieved. The currencies have been looking elsewhere, with the possible exception of the oil-linked Canadian Dollar and Norwegian Krone. After today's consumer inflation data from around Europe, the focus will shift to a series of U.S. job?data culminating in Friday's non farm payrolls report. After weaker than expected manufacturing data and a warning by Fed official Neel Kazhkari, the U.S. Dollar made a round trip on Monday. It rose to a four week?high before falling again. All of this serves to show how sensitive the markets are to the outlook on U.S. monetary policies. The following are the key developments that may influence Tuesday's markets: German and French CPI (both Dec). German, French and Italian PMIs, British, US, British, US, December
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Venezuelan oil output weighs the market as it faces a glut of supply
The oil prices dropped on Tuesday as the market anticipated a large global supply in the face of a weak demand and weighed the possibility of a higher Venezuelan crude production following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro by the U.S. Brent crude futures dropped?0.2% or 14 cents to $61.62 a barge by 0450 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was at $58.13 a barge, down 0.3%, or 19 cents. Priyanka sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova, said that the response of oil prices to major geopolitical issues, like the U.S. action in Venezuela or the ongoing strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, was surprisingly muted. This suggests fundamental factors such as demand and supply remained the main concern. From a supply standpoint, the oil complex is still 'full of barrels. She said that according to the most recent data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), and U.S. Energy Information Administration, global crude oil supply continues to 'outpace consumption, pushing inventories up and maintaining downward pressure on prices. In December, market participants polled said that they expect oil prices to be under pressure by 2026 because of the growing supply and weakening demand. The capture of Venezuela's leader by the U.S. on Saturday could exacerbate price pressure, increasing the chances that the U.S. will lift its embargo against Venezuelan oil. This could lead to an increase in production. Maduro, who was charged with narcotics in New York on Monday, pleaded no contest. A person with knowledge of the matter said that Donald Trump's administration plans to meet U.S. Oil executives this week in order to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said: "I believe that if Trump's playbook is even partially implemented, Venezuelan crude production will increase. Should it increase, more pressure will be placed on a market which has already been oversupplied." Venezuela, a founding member in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has the largest oil reserves on earth with 303 billion barrels. Venezuela's oil sector is in decline, largely due to U.S. and under-investment. Last year, its average production was 1.1 million barrels per day. Oil analysts predicted that Venezuelan production could rise to up to 500,000 barrels per day in the next two-year period, if political stability and U.S. investments are made. ANZ Research stated in a report that they believed that a more unstable political environment was the most likely scenario. They also said that a large injection of money would be needed to boost Venezuela's production beyond its current capacity. (Reporting from Anushree Chow and Emily Chow, both in Singapore; editing by Christopher Cushing & Kate Mayberry).
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Asian stocks continue record rally as oil and dollar drift
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high on Tuesday as oil companies and financials gained. The U.S. oil industry got a boost after the military raid that took place in the U.S. over the weekend, which captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Crude oil fell back $1 per barrel after it rose overnight as traders assessed possible impacts on crude oil flows from Venezuela. Venezuela is home to the largest oil reserves in the world. The events have had a limited impact on the risk sentiment. Equities are driven by momentum, while currencies are based on macroeconomic data. The U.S. Dollar was on the defensive Friday ahead of the monthly jobs data. The dollar surged in the previous session to a four week high, only to lose all its gains at the close after a gauge for manufacturing activity fell to a fourteen-month low. Copper reached a new record, and precious metals were not far behind. The Topix Index, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks, rose 1.6%, reaching a new record high. This was primarily due to the gains in Japanese stocks. Taiwan's Taiex rose 1%, and South Korea's KOSPI grew 0.7%. Both reached all-time records. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 1.8%, while mainland Chinese blue-chips jumped 1.2%. STOXX 600 futures in Europe were 0.2% higher on Monday after it closed at a record high. U.S. S&P futures rose 0.1% after a 0.6% increase in the cash index overnight. Chevron soared by more than 5%. U.S. President Donald Trump has said that he will put Venezuela under "temporary American Control" and could order another attack if Venezuela does not cooperate with U.S. attempts to open its oil industry and end drug trafficking. He also threatened to take military action in Colombia, Mexico and other countries. Trump will meet with executives of U.S. oil firms later this week to talk about boosting Venezuelan production. This was reported by a source familiar with the issue. In a client letter, Yusuke Matsuo wrote that Venezuela's "relatively smaller economy" has convinced investors the world's economy and financial markets will not be affected directly. However, increasing the country's production of oil "will take years to become a reality," Yusuke Matsuo said. Gold, which is considered a safe haven asset, will also perform well, according to our analysts. Brent crude futures fell 17 cents in the last session to $61.59 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas intermediate crude declined 21 cents to $58.11. After a 2.7% rise on Monday, gold rose by 0.4% to $4,466 an ounce. The gold price is less than $100 away from its previous record high of $4,548.92, which was reached last month. Silver and platinum both jumped 2.6%. Prices of copper in London and Shanghai reached record levels as concerns over supplies increased following a strike by a Chilean mining company. U.S. Comex Copper reached a record high on Monday. The dollar fell 0.1% against the euro to $1.1733 and 0.1% against sterling to $1.3558. It was unchanged at 156.47yen. The dollar index, which measures currency against a basket that includes these three rivals, as well as three other?major counterparts, fell 0.2% to 98.238. The dollar index had reached a high of 98.861 for the first day since December 10 The closely followed U.S. employment report due Friday will play a key role in determining the expectations regarding monetary policy. Neel Kahkari, the Minneapolis Fed president, warned in an interview with CNBC on Monday that the unemployment rate could "pop up" higher. LSEG futures calculations showed that traders expect two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2018. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; Kevin Buckland)
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GRAINS-Wheat Futures Posts Modest Gain on US Plains Dryness and Global Supply Weighs
Chicago wheat futures edged up on Tuesday, as a combination of dry conditions in the U.S. Plains region and increasing tensions in Black Sea export regions supported prices that were under pressure due to global?supplies. By 0415 GMT, the most active?wheat contracts on CBOT (Wv1) had risen 0.05% to $5.12-3/4 per bushel. Corn (Cv1) rose 0.17% to $5.12-3/4 a Bushel and soybeans (Sv1) gained 0.28 % to $10.65. Wheat, soybeans, and corn all extended gains in the second session of trading following traders' return from their?year-end holiday and assessment of crop weather. Last Friday, soybeans, wheat and corn reached their lowest levels since late October. Corn also hit a 2-week low. Josh Lawrence, IKON Commodities' advisory consultant, said that "Pockets" of dryness were present in the U.S. The?ample supply from major exporting nations limited the gains." The Black Sea export corridor was also closely monitored by traders. Ukraine officials reported that on Monday, Russia attacked a U.S. agricultural company Bunge's enterprise in Dnipro and launched five missile attacks against Kharkiv. The strikes damaged energy infrastructure. UGA, the traders' union, reported on Monday that exports in Ukraine of key agricultural products fell from 3.58 to 3.28 millions metric tons between November and December, due mainly to lower shipments of soybeans and wheat. The weekly U.S. demand for exports was mixed. U.S. Department of Agriculture reported net?U.S. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said net?U.S. On January 12, the agency will release key crop data, including U.S. grain stocks and soybean stock as of December 1. Traders reported that commodity funds were net purchasers of CBOT grain and soy products Monday. Reporting by Ella Cao and Daphne Zhang; Editing and proofreading by Rashmia Aich and Harikrishnan Nair
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HDFC Bank and Reliance weigh in on Indian share prices as they fall from record highs
Indian shares dropped on Tuesday. The 'heavyweight stocks HDFC Bank, and Reliance Industries were the main culprits. This was a day after the?Nifty 50 index retreated to record highs. The Sensex fell 0.21% as of 9:54 a.m. IST, and the?Nifty50 dropped 0.1% to 26231.40. Seven out of 16 major sectors fell. The small- and mid-caps both rose by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively. HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries and other major stocks in the benchmark indexes fell 1.6% and 3.3% respectively. Reliance denied a Bloomberg report that three vessels carrying Russian crude oil were heading to its Jamnagar refining facility. Reliance's move is a response to renewed concerns about trade after U.S. president Donald Trump warned on Monday that tariffs could be raised against India if New Delhi did not reduce its purchases of Russian crude oil. The Nifty 50 reached an intraday high on Monday, before falling 0.3% to close lower. Ajit Mishra is senior vice president and head of research at Religare Broking. He said that sentiment was subdued because of geopolitical tensions as well as concerns about potential trade frictions. These factors continued to influence risk appetite. Trent, a stock that is traded individually, fell 7.5%. Posting Multiple brokerages have flagged a slowing of growth and a decline in demand for their December quarter business update. Tata Motors? Passenger Vehicles After its unit JLR saw its third quarter volumes drop 43.3% as a result of production stops due to an?a cybersecurity incident. Private lenders Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 0.5%) and Axis Bank (up 1%), respectively, also rose after positive business updates for the December quarter. Emmvee Photovoltaic Power rose 5.1% after Jefferies initiated its coverage, recommending a "buy". Jefferies projected a 70% increase in the next twelve months.
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Gold reaches a new high in a week on Fed rate-cut betting and Venezuela turmoil
Gold prices rose again?on Tuesday, reaching a new high. The dovish remarks?of?Federal Reserve officials increased interest rate-cutting bets while Venezuelan tensions also boosted safe-haven demand. As of 0328 GMT spot gold was up 0.4% to $4,465.32 an ounce after rising by nearly 3% the previous session. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,549.71 in December and recorded its best performance ever since 1979 with a 64% jump. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery edged up 0.3% to $4,465.70 per ounce on Tuesday. "The comments by Fed officials certainly didn't harm but it doesn’t seem like the calculus has changed that much." "We have a busy week ahead with the release of Friday's jobs report," said Ilya Spivak. On Monday, Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, said that inflation was "slowly" easing. However, there was the risk that the unemployment rate would "pop", increasing the likelihood of rate cuts. Investors expect two rate cuts at least this year. They will be looking for additional monetary policy clues in the Friday nonfarm payrolls report. On Monday, the former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro denied narcotics-related charges. The arrest of Maduro by Donald Trump rattled leaders around the world and caused officials in Caracas to scramble to regroup. Spivak stated that "the capture of Maduro demonstrated this rupture between the U.S., China, and (the ongoing trend) de-globalisation." In a low interest rate environment, and in times of geopolitical uncertainty or economic instability, non-yielding investments tend to perform well. Silver spot?gained 2.9 % to $78.72 an ounce after reaching an all-time high of $83.62 per ounce on December 29. Silver's annual gains in 2025 were 147% higher than gold. This was the best year ever for silver. After reaching an all-time record of $2,478.50 on Monday, spot platinum rose 2.5% to $2,327.17. It rose by more than 5% in the morning session, reaching a new high. Palladium was 0.8% higher, at $1.721.74 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Phillips, Subhranshu Sahu, and Ishaan arora)
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HDFC Bank and Reliance drag down Indian share prices
India's equity benchmarks started Tuesday slightly lower, led by HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries, as investors booked profits near record highs. However, optimism about an earnings improvement before the results season persisted. The Nifty 50 dropped 0.23% to 26189.7. As of 9:15 a.m. IST, the Sensex was trading 0.13% lower at 85,331.14. The gains in nine of the 16 major sectors were marginal. The small-caps, mid-caps, and broader indexes all rose by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively. HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries - the two heaviest stocks on the benchmark index - each lost 2%. The Nifty 50 reached a record high intraday on Monday before falling 0.3%, due to losses in the information technology sector. The trade worries increased on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that tariffs could be raised on India if New Delhi didn't meet Washington’s demand to reduce?purchases? of Russian oil. Private lenders Kotak Mahindra Bank (private lender) and Axis Bank (private lender) each rose by about 1% after positive business updates for the quarter ending December.
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Four people are still missing after flash floods hit Indonesia's North Sulawesi
An official confirmed on Tuesday that at least 14 people had been killed by flash floods which swept through North Sulawesi in Indonesia. The search for those who are missing continues. Nuriadin Gumeleng is a local rescue agency spokesperson. He said that heavy rains early Monday morning caused 'flash floods' on the island Siau. Gumeleng said that 16 rescuers were deployed on Tuesday to find four people still missing. He added that 18 people have been injured. He said, "We will continue to collect data from the local residents in the event that there are still more missing persons." Gumeleneg reported that the main roads in affected areas are still covered with rocks, debris, and thick mud as of Tuesday. Abdul Muhari, spokesperson for the disaster mitigation agency of the country, said that at least 444 people were evacuated from their homes to local schools and churches following?the flash flooding. He said that excavators were used by authorities to clear the roads blocked by debris and mud. Yulius Selvanus, the governor of North?Sulawesi, said that hundreds of homes and government buildings were also destroyed by the floods. Indonesia's weather agency predicted that the flash floods occurred during the peak of wet season on the island of Sulawesi. Weather agency said that the islands of Java and Sulawesi will experience their peak rainy season in January and February of this year. This means more flood risks, according to the weather agency. In Sumatra, Borneo and other parts of Indonesia the rain peaked in November and December last year. In November last year, floods and landslides caused by cyclones killed over 1,000 people in Sumatra. Hundreds are still missing. Green groups claim that deforestation caused by mining and logging increased the impact of floods. (Reporting and editing by Ananda Terresia)
Power-hungry data centers spur United States talks with Big Tech, energy chief Granholm states
President Joe Biden's. administration is asking huge technology business to invest in. new climatefriendly power generation to cover their surging. need, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm informed .
The talks come as a surprising rise in electrical power need. has been driven by the adoption of technologies like generative. expert system that need power-hungry information centers. This development could complicate Biden's target of. decarbonizing the power sector by 2035 to fight climate change.
We've been talking with data companies. The large ones have. commitments to net-zero and wish to see tidy baseload. power, Granholm said in an interview with .
She said the administration had actually talked about the possibility. that companies might band together to make use of small modular. reactors for nuclear energy, and could concurrently put. orders to lower costs.
If the tech companies are coming in and are going to pull. clean power from the grid, they need to bring the power with. them, she stated.
And so a lot of that conversation is occurring today. amongst tech companies and energies, tech business and nuclear. business.
She did not name any of the companies included.
Data centers might use up to 9% of overall electrical energy. created in the U.S. by the end of the decade, more than. doubling their present intake, the Electric Power Research. Institute said in a report last week.
NuScale, the only small modular reactor business with a. license to build from U.S. regulators, needed to cancel its just. project in 2015 at the Energy Department's Idaho National. Laboratory.
Granholm said the NuScale did not have enough. contracts to buy power from the task. That's a lesson: If. you're going to have new nuclear you have to have clear offtake. of the power, Granholm said.
The White House last week announced new steps to spur. development of new U.S. nuclear reactor, a big capacity. source of carbon-free electrical energy the federal government states is required. to combat climate modification. But no new U.S. nuclear plants are. currently being developed.
The youngest U.S. nuclear power reactors, at the Vogtle. plant in Georgia, were years behind schedule and billions over. budget plan when they went into commercial operation in 2023 and 2024.
Granholm said tech companies were likewise looking into other. clean energy innovations, including geothermal.
(source: Reuters)