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The dollar gained, but US stocks were little changed following the US jobs data.
Dollar and Treasury yields increased, but U.S. stock prices lost their early gains, trading nearly flat, on Wednesday, after data showed that the U.S. created "far more jobs" than expected in the month of January. This could make it harder for the Federal Reserve's to continue cutting rates. Labor Department data shows that 130,000 new workers were added to the nonfarm payrolls during January. This is well above the forecast of 70,000. November and December have been revised downwards. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in January from 4.4%, which was below the forecast of 4.4%. In an email, Eric Merlis said that the January employment report had been a "blockbuster" with improvements?across-the-board. The Fed is looking for a lower unemployment rate, but without a significant wage increase. This should be enough to convince them that rates will remain unchanged in March. According to CME's FedWatch Tool, market expectations of a Fed cut at least of 25 basis points during the central bank meeting in March had increased to around 20% before the employment data. They were down to about 6% following the report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 53.20 points or 0.11% to 50,134.94. The S&P 500 rose 0.70 points or 0.01% to 6,942.51 while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 81.23 or 0.35% to 23,021.24. The S&P 500 saw a decline in financials. The fear of artificial intelligence disrupting the market dominated trading in Europe. This time, shares in asset management fell, after having affected the software and insurance sectors the previous week. The benchmark STOXX 600 Index in Europe hit a new record and was up by 0.34%. MSCI's global stock index rose 1.76 points (or 0.17%) to 1,056.48. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.11%, to 97.02; the euro fell 0.31%, to $1.1857. The dollar fell 0.59% against the Japanese yen to 153.47. The yen is up over the last few days. This could be a sign of a shift in investor thinking after Sunday's election win for Japan's prime minister Sanae Takaichi. The Australian dollar has reached a new three-year high. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser of the Reserve Bank of Australia said that inflation was too high, and policymakers would do whatever it took to bring it down. The Australian dollar rose 0.52% against the greenback, to $0.7111. The yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 3.5 basis point to 4.18% after hitting a high of 4.206% in the session. Brent crude rose 1.63% to $69.91 per barrel. U.S. Crude rose 1.77% to $55.09 per barrel. Spot gold increased by 0.68%, to $5057.04 per ounce.
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CME is looking into launching the first rare earth futures contract ever, according to sources
Three sources familiar with the matter have told us that CME Group has been working on a plan to launch the first futures contract for rare earths in the world. This would allow governments, companies, and banks to hedge their exposure to the 'China-controlled sector. Two sources claim that the rival Intercontinental Exchange also plans to offer rare earth futures but it is not as far along in its planning process as CME. CME declined comment, and ICE didn't immediately respond to a comment request. Banks are reluctant to finance Western projects, in an industry where volatile prices can be a major factor. Rare earths is a grouping of 17 essential elements for energy transition, electronics, and defence. Two of the most important rare artifacts The sources declined to give their names because the information had not been made public. Rare earths are needed to produce permanent magnets that are used for EV motors and wind turbines. They are also found in fighter jets?and drones. One of the sources stated, "It is such an important missing piece for the industry at this time." A final decision has not been made regarding a launch. Rare earths are not heavily traded, and their market is small compared to other metal futures. Rare earths play a key role in the West's effort to increase production. The U.S. launched a $12 billion stockpile and announced a preferential trading bloc with its allies last week. Washington's most prominent deal in the rare-earths sector was a multi-billion dollar package with MP Materials last July, which included a 15% stake as well as a price floor based on NdPr. PRICES SET IN CHINA The NdPr price is currently set in China. This can be seen in the indexes of price reporting agencies like Fastmarkets Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and Shanghai Metals Market. China has two exchanges that allow for spot trading of rare earths: Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange and Ganzhou Rare Metal Exchange. Guangzhou Futures Exchange said it plans to offer futures on rare?earths in the near future. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence also publishes rare earth prices in Europe and North America where volumes are low. SMM reports that NdPr prices in China are up 40% this year and have reached their highest level since July 2022. However, in a sign of the 'volatility', they fell by 50% in the 15 months leading up to May 2023. Without futures, many rare earth mines outside China and processing plants struggle to secure financing. This is because banks cannot forecast their "future revenues" and producers can't hedge against potential price declines. Futures could also help industrial magnet users, such as EV makers, hedge their exposure to magnet price. CME has successfully launched futures on lithium and cobalt - critical minerals used in EV battery technology. CME announced earlier this month that it had beaten Wall Street's estimates for the fourth quarter and that its average daily volume rose 7.5%, to a new record of 27,4 million contracts.
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Even as prices rise, platinum miners prefer payouts to projects
Platinum's record-high price will have to continue for miners to invest heavily in new projects. Executives are prioritising shareholder payouts at the moment, despite concerns about past mistakes and rising costs. After years of margin stress that forced deep cost cuts and massive layoffs, a rebound in the?platinum? prices -- spot platinum reaching a record 2,918.80 an ounce in January after surging by 127% in 2025 - has improved the fortunes of miners. Valterra Platinum, which is the largest platinum producer in the world by sales value and was spun-off from Anglo American last January, is expecting its annual profit to increase by up to 106%. Impala Platinum forecasts a profit increase of up to 392% in the first half of this year. This doesn't necessarily mean that a spending binge is on the way. Valterra CEO Craig Miller said on the sidelines a mining conference held in Cape Town: "We are still maintaining our discipline. We are really disciplined about executing within the business what we can control and then making sure that any additional value we create is returned to shareholders." Valterra intends to maintain its dividend policy of 40%. Zimplats is Zimbabwe's biggest platinum producer, and it's majority-owned by South Africa's Impala. The company will also reward its shareholders for supporting the $1.8 billion 10-year expansion plans that were announced in 2021. Alex Mhembere, CEO of Zimplats, said: "We look forward to the opportunity where we will be able to reward them in terms giving them a shareholder dividend." Zimplats declared its last dividend in the fiscal year ending June 2023. NEW OUTPUT CAUTION Mining executives are still hesitant to launch new projects despite the strong price of platinum group metals. Miller said that the current PGM prices aren't far from what he believes is the price at which you could earn a reasonable profit on a new mine project. He added that he'd prefer to see a period with consistently higher prices in order to encourage greenfield development. He noted that only two out of twenty projects initiated by the industry from 2005 to 2010 are still operational. Miller said that a range of sustained prices between $2,300 and $2,500 per ounce was a reasonable one for long-term planning. Hilton Ingram is Valterra's Executive Head of Marketing. He said that long-term price forecasts were only rising by 5% to 10%. This, he claimed, was not enough to stimulate greenfield production or to reopen assets which had been mothballed. Richard Stewart, CEO of Sibanye Stillwater, said that the decision to restart the Stillwater West mine, which was placed on care and maintenance in 2024, will depend on the long-term outlook for the palladium price, rather than on short-term movements. The price of platinum and palladium, both used in autocatalysts to reduce vehicle exhaust emissions, has risen since the second half 2025. This is due to a shortage that has offset the long-term effects of the switch to electric vehicles. COST PRESSURES The rising energy and labor costs in South Africa - the world's largest producer of PGMs - remain a major worry for miner. S&P Global's January report projected that all-in-sustaining costs (AISC),?for primary production of platinum, would increase 7.7% by 2026 to $1,006.14 an ounce. The report stated that "persistent inflation and higher energy and labor costs will continue to exert upwards pressure on the AISC." The South African utility, Eskom, has stabilized electricity supply following years of severe power outages. However, the soaring costs for?power continue to squeeze miner's pockets. According to the Minerals Council, electricity prices for large consumers have increased by more than 900% in just a few years. Stewart from Sibanye said that the growth constraint in the PGM sector is not due to incentive pricing. It's much more complicated than a simple trigger price to incentivise a new production. Nelson Banya contributed additional reporting. Writing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo. Mark Potter and Veronica Brown edited the text.
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Recent years have seen a number of major U-turns regarding corporate splits
Kraft Heinz halted its plans to split on Wednesday, joining a select group of companies that have retracted major corporate restructurings. It announced plans to split in two, one focusing on sauces and condiments and the other on groceries. Some major companies have cancelled plans to split. DUPONT DuPont, a manufacturer of industrial materials, announced in January 2025 that it would no longer'separate their water business and turn it into a publicly-traded company. Instead, they will'spin off its electronics business. VIRGIN O2 Marc Murtra, the CEO of Telefonica, announced that in July 2025 they had scrapped their plan to spin off Virgin Media O2’s fixed network. In March 2024 Bayer announced that it would delay plans to split the group by up to three year so that a new CEO can focus on debt and litigation. TECK RESOURCES In April 2023 Teck Resources withdrew their plan to separate their copper and coal businesses as the company sought a way to avoid a $22.5billion takeover bid from Glencore. EY will be launching its April 2023 audit in the United States. Calling off a Plan After facing opposition from some of its partners, the company decided to separate its audit and consultancy units. Gap scrapped its plan to spin off Old Navy in January 2020. Instead, it said that it would try to reverse the declining sales. (Reporting and editing by Pooja Deai in Bengaluru)
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Russia lacks equipment to safely restart Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Ukraine says
The head of Ukraine's nuclear power company said that the largest nuclear plant in Europe, which was seized by Russian forces during the initial days of the invasion of Ukraine, could only be restarted safely if the facility is returned to Ukrainian control. Since Russian forces seized the area, the six reactors of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant were shut down. Moscow announced in 2013 that it aimed to restart one reactor. The plant's Russian appointed boss stated it could start producing energy as early as 2027. Pavlo Kovtoniuk is the head of Ukrainian nuclear company Energoatom. He said that Russia lacks certain?equipment, spare parts and other components to operate this reactor and would risk a nuclear disaster if they tried. "Russia won't be able launch the station. Kovtoniuk stated that the main equipment, control and protection systems and monitoring system are all Ukrainian. This means it's a Ukrainian-funded project and spare parts are made by Ukrainian companies. The station cannot operate without spare parts or the project. Talks on the fate of power stations and peace One of the "key obstacles" in the peace talks between the warring nations under U.S. mediated mediation has been the fate of the station. It is capable of supplying a third the electricity needed by Ukraine when it's?fully operational. Washington has proposed that all three parties share power and run the plant together. Moscow claims that the area where the nuclear station is located now belongs to Russia and that it is owned by Rosatom, the operator of the plant. Rosatom has not responded to a request from the media for comment about Kovtoniuk’s remarks. Kovtoniuk, however, said that the plant was not fully compatible with modern technology in Russia. Rosatom will have to completely replace the American fuel in the reactors and the control system of the power units, which was designed to be used with this type of nuclear fuel. Rosatom said that it is ready to return American fuel to the United States. Kovtoniuk cited the 40-year-old Chornobyl nuclear disaster as an example of the dangers that could arise if Russia attempted to restart the plant without Ukrainian equipment or expertise. No one at the Chornobyl plant wanted to see a catastrophe happen. He said that this occurred because the equipment could not operate under the conditions it was in. "The situation is the same." He said that after the Kakhovka Dam was destroyed in 2023, the Kakhovka Reservoir, a large man-made lake, along which the plant is located, had been drained, the water available to cool one reactor would not be enough. (Reporting and editing by Peter Graff.)
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India's Oil Minister denies any wrongdoing with Epstein links
India's Oil Minister said that he met and communicated with the late financier, convicted sex offenders, and convicted sex-offender Jeffrey Epstein while he was in the United States. He said he has no connection to any wrongdoing or crimes. Hardeep Singh Puri, a career diplomat-turned-politician, said he was part of the International Peace Institute, a New York ?think tank headed by Norwegian diplomat and former cabinet minister ?Terje Roed-Larsen until 2020, and met Epstein "three or maximum four ?times" during his time there. Roed-Larsen has apologized for his connections to Epstein, and his wife Mona Juul resigned as a Norwegian Ambassador over her links to Epstein. Puri made his comments in response to questions raised by India's opposition Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday in the parliament. Gandhi claimed that Epstein's email contained Puri's information and asked the Prime Minister Narendra Modi government to explain what Puri had done with Epstein. Puri, India's former ambassador to the United Nations (2009-2013), became a?minister in Modi’s cabinet in 2017. He denied that he did anything wrong. Documents released by the U.S. Department of Justice show emails between Puri, Epstein and Reid Hoffman. Puri said he wanted Hoffman to visit India to explore India's internet business potential. Reporting by Shilpa jamkhandikar, Editing by YPrajesh and Ros Russel
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OPEC data show a small Q2 oil surplus ahead of OPEC+'s key decision about resuming production increases
OPEC forecasted Wednesday that world oil demand for the OPEC+ will fall by 400,000 barrels a day in the second half of the year. They also published data showing a slight surplus during the quarter before a crucial decision is made on whether or not to increase production. OPEC's monthly oil market report?on its website stated that the world demand for OPEC+ will average 42.20 millions bpd during the second quarter. This is down from 42.60million bpd during the first quarter. The two forecasts remained unchanged since last month's report. The OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC countries, Russia, and other allies began increasing output last year, after years of cutting back. However, production increases were halted in the first quarter of 2026 due to predictions of a glut. On March 1, eight OPEC+ member countries will meet to discuss whether or not to continue the production hikes. OPEC stated that 'world oil demand is gaining strength from air travel, road transport and a fall in the value of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of currencies. WEAKER DOLLAR HELPS OPEC stated in its report that "this decline has made dollar priced commodities, including crude oil, cheaper for the consumers and provided additional support for global consumption." OPEC has not changed its predictions that the world's oil demand will increase by 1,34 million bpd by 2027, and by 1,38 million bpd by this year. The forecast for 2026 is higher than other analysts such as International Energy Agency. OPEC+ increased production in the last year, but output has dropped in recent months. OPEC reported that the group pumped 42.45 millions bpd, down 439,000 bpd compared to December. This was due to reductions in Kazakhstan and Russia as well as Venezuela, Iran and Venezuela. Last month, Kazakhstan's production, which has been impacted by a number of setbacks and slowed down, dropped by 249,000 barrels per day, contributing the most to?the overall drop. SMALL Q2 SURPLUS, ?FULL-YEAR DEFICIT If OPEC+ kept pumping at the rate of January in the second quarter, and all other things remained equal, the production would be 250.000 bpd more than the demand for OPEC+ crude that quarter, according to a calculated based on the OPEC Report. OPEC data, however, indicates that the production will be lower than the demand over the entire of 2026. OPEC estimates that the demand for crude oil in 2026 will average?43million bpd – also unchanged from last month - or?550,000 bpd higher than OPEC+ produced in January. The IEA's latest figures indicate that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year by 3.69 million bpd – an amount equivalent to almost 4%. The next forecast update from the IEA is due Thursday. Alex Lawler is the reporter. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Stocks and dollar rise after US jobs data is beaten; AI concerns simmer beneath the surface
U.S. stocks futures and the dollar rose on Wednesday after data showed that the U.S. created more jobs in January than expected, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to 'keep cutting rates' this year. Labor Department data revealed that 130,000 new workers were added to the non-farm payrolls during January. This was well above expectations of a rise in 70,000. November and December have been revised downwards a little. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in January from 4.4%, which was below expectations for a reading 4.4%. Lindsay James, an investment strategist with Quilter, stated that this will likely lead to the Fed continuing to maintain?rates at their current levels until data indicates other remedies are needed. It also puts pressure on Kevin Warsh, the prospective Fed chair, as President Trump continues to call for rate cuts. Futures for the U.S. S&P500?and tech-dominated Nasdaq both rose by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively after trading 0.1% higher earlier. The dollar gained 0.21% against a basket major currencies on the day after trading down 0.17% before the payrolls report. Trading in Europe was dominated by jitters over artificial intelligence disruption. This?time, shares of asset managers were pushed lower. The same jitters had hit the software and insurance sectors the previous week. The benchmark STOXX 600 Index in Europe rose by 0.3%, reaching new records. Investors are shifting their focus to companies that they believe will be less negatively affected by AI. Derren Nathan is the head of equity analysis at Hargreaves-Lansdown. He said that large language models cannot simply replace medicines and raw materials. The soaring demand for rare earths and energy can be viewed as a positive by some industries. The dollar temporarily cut its losses on the currency market against the Japanese yen. This is a sign that investors' thinking may have changed since the landslide victory of Japan's Prime minister Sanae Takaichi in Sunday's election. The yen last rose nearly 0.5% for the day, trading at?153.4 a dollar. It had traded at 153.6 just before the U.S. employment report. Since Takaichi won on Sunday, the yen has risen by?2.5% against the dollar. This is contrary to expectations that her stimulus plan would continue to put pressure on the currency and bonds. The dollar climbed to $5,050 per ounce from $5,076 an ounce earlier in the day, and gold lost some of its gains. Bitcoin was down 1.8%, trading at $67.429 but still above the day's low of $66,360.
Italy's power users pay the rate for high reliance on gas: Maguire
Italy's average wholesale power prices have been the highest amongst significant European markets for the past 3 years, raised by a. substantially greater reliance on natural gas for electrical energy. generation than rival economies.
Wholesale power prices in Italy balanced 127 euros. ($ 137.80) per megawatt hour in 2023, according to LSEG, which. was a 3rd more than the typical power rates in Germany and. France last year, and over 50% greater than the typical rate in. Spain.
Italy's power expenses have actually climbed up even more above some key. competing economies up until now in 2024, with wholesale rates last month. balancing almost 40% above costs in France and 60% more than. wholesale costs in Spain.
Such a stiff power cost premium over regional counterparts. has hurt major power customers in Italy, specifically market and. big producers, a few of which have been required to cut. energy usage and production over the past year or so to avoid. racking up high monetary losses.
GAS DEPENDENCE
Italy's relatively higher reliance on natural gas for. electrical power generation was a key motorist behind the elevated. power expenses.
The share of natural gas in Italy's electrical power generation. mix in 2023 was simply over 45%, compared to 6% in France, 15% in. Germany and 23% in Spain, information from think tank Coal shows.
Such a high reliance on gas indicates Italy's. energies have actually had little scope to dispatch other forms of power. for generation, even with annual increases in sustainable power. production in the country.
This in turn has suggested that as regional gas rates. have skyrocketed because Russia's intrusion of Ukraine in 2022, and. replacement materials in the kind of liquefied natural gas (LNG). imports and alternate pipelines have also leapt in rate,. Italy's power firms have actually needed to pass on those higher expenses to. consumers.
Some big energy consumers, specifically industry, have. balked at paying greatly greater power expenses, and instead decreased. overall energy use - and organization output.
This in turn allowed power companies to cut electricity output. from natural gas-fired power plants to the lowest considering that 2015. in 2015, and coal-fired output to the most affordable in three years,. while lifting the percentage of renewables in the total. generation mix.
Moving forward, nevertheless, any sustained increase in total. electrical energy generation levels will need energies to burn. more gas in power stations, exposing them to potential even more. walkings in power costs.
BREAKING THE FOSSIL REPAIR
Fossil fuels have actually represented roughly 60% of total. electrical power generation in Italy over the previous decade, with. gas alone accounting for around 50% in the last few years.
Until 2019, thermal coal had represented an extra 12%. to 15% of electrical power output, but pollution decrease efforts. resulted in the closure of some dated coal plants which served to. push coal's share of the electricity generation mix to a record. low of 5.3% in 2023.
Lowered coal-fired output has actually required power companies to. even more boost their reliance on gas as the main pillar of the. nation's power system, even as gas costs climbed up in the wake. of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Italy's power firms have actually likewise tried to boost electricity. generation from other sources, with solar generation up by 37%. and wind generation up by 34% considering that 2018, Coal data programs.
Hydro centers likewise play a crucial function in clean power. generation in Italy, and in 2023 represented 15% of overall. electrical power output.
Hydro output levels can be volatile due to. dry spells, such as in 2022 when overall hydro generation dropped to. the most affordable in over 20 years and accounted for simply 10% of overall. electrical power output.
Such unforeseeable output from hydro plants, together with the. intermittent generation from solar and wind farms, indicates that. Italy's power companies are not likely to be able to cut their usage of. natural gas for baseload generation whenever quickly.
Which, in turn, suggests any additional boosts in local. gas prices might keep Italy's power rates greater than in. elsewhere in Europe.
<< The viewpoints revealed here are those of the author, a. writer .>> . ($ 1 = 0.9217 euros)
(source: Reuters)