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FOREX Dollar gains as oil and yield increases raise inflation fears
The dollar gained on Tuesday, as renewed U.S. - Iran hostilities sent the oil prices higher. This fueled?inflation fears and sparked a global 'bond saleoff. After the first direct attack in a week, U.S. president Donald Trump has threatened to strike again against?Iran?. This has pushed oil prices over 2% higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached its highest level since January 2025. Karl Schamotta is the chief market strategist for Corpay. He said that the dollar was rising as a result of the hostilities between Iran and the U.S., which increased inflation risks and raised the possibility of rate hikes. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh had been seen as adopting a hawkish tone in his monetary policy. Warsh's first speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was his strongest hint to date that more rate hikes may be necessary to control price pressures. Fed funds futures trader now price in 68% odds that a rate hike will occur this September, up from 35% prior to Warsh's Friday comments. The Fed's meeting on September 15-16 will be largely determined by the August jobs and inflation data. Central bank increases next month. According to economists polled, the median estimate for Friday's employment report is that employers added 56,000 new jobs in January. Fed Governor Michael Barr stated on Tuesday that the U.S. Central Bank will have to raise interest rates if inflation doesn't cool down quickly. U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said, on the other hand, that U.S. Bond yields show that inflation expectations have "flattened to down", and that they reflect an accelerating U.S. economic growth. The dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.16%, to 99.57. Meanwhile, the euro fell 0.15%, to $1.1599. The dollar fell 0.07%, to $1.3538. The Yen WEAKENS The Japanese yen dropped 0.22%, to 160.08 dollars. Bessent, who believes that the Japanese government and central banks will take actions to make the yen stronger, said on Monday that he would support the Japanese currency. Bessent's remarks could effectively lock in the BOJ to raise rates this September. The dollar is still favored by the large?interest rate difference between the U.S. Joel Kruger is a market strategist with LMAX Group, London. He said that investors are still focused on Japan's "still-unfavorable" rate differential with the United States. They also have doubts about how aggressively Bank of Japan policy will be tightened. The rare joint 'intervention' by the U.S., Japan and other countries at the end of July was a short-lived boost for the fragile yen. It pushed it away from its 40-year-low of 163,99, but since then, the currency has lost around half of what it gained from this joint action. When asked by journalists about the increase in bond yields, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Catayama stated that the government would continue to have a close dialogue with the markets.
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Bessent: U.S. to announce Iran banking sanctions this week
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that the United States will likely announce sanctions against a bank in this week as part of its economic campaign against Iran. "We will probably announce a sanction against a bank this week and another the following week." Bessent stated that he was speaking with our allies in the area, who had all expressed their support. The treasury secretary said that the United States was targeting airline leasing companies and other entities who did business with the Islamic?Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at an event held on the sidelines of a meeting of 20 finance leaders hosted by the U.S. in Asheville, North Carolina. The treasury secretary said that the 'U.S. was also targeting airlines leasing companies and entities who did business with Islamic 'Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). It could be entities. We'll be checking out airline leasing companies. Anyone who has done business with the IRGC could be a suspect. Bessent stated that they were tracking down the IRGC assets. "We have zero tolerance. "We will economically asphyxiate the regime." Bessent said on Sunday that the U.S. Treasury would likely?unveil new secondary sanctions every week aimed at increasing economic tension on Iran with an initial emphasis on banks. He said that the next step could be to cut off an institution from the dollar-based financial system. Bessent, in a message aimed at the IRGC on Tuesday, said: "We know the locations of your trust companies accounts in the British Virgin Islands." We know where you keep your 100-million dollar homes around the globe, and we're going to freeze them. Bessent stated that the United States and China have privately discussed how to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, as well as how to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Chile's economy falls unexpectedly in the month of July, dragged down by the mining sector
The central bank of Chile released data on Tuesday showing that the economic activity in Chile declined in July. This was below market expectations because of a slowdown within the mining sector. Chile's economy declined by 1.5% in July compared to the same month a year ago. This was a decline of 0.4% from the economists polled and an improvement from last month, when it registered a revised annual growth rate of 2%. The sharpest drop in production was the goods, which fell 3.2% over the past year. The central bank stated that the result was "driven by the performance in the mining sector. Copper was particularly affected by low ore grades, maintenance and adverse weather conditions." In July, the mining sector of the world's biggest copper producer experienced a decline of 9.3% on a year-on-year basis. After a brief hiatus, the IMACEC Index, which represents about 90% of Andean countries' gross domestic product (GDP), returned to a negative state in June. The adverse weather conditions affected the manufacturing industry, too. It fell by 3.1% over the past year and saw a decrease in fuels and chemicals produced. Jorge Selaive is the chief economist of Scotiabank Chile. He said on X: "The stage is now set for a further seasonally adjusted decline in Q3 2026. August's performance is expected to be weak, and everything will depend on September." REVISIONS DOWNWARD Analysts revised their economic forecasts downwards after the release of the sluggish manufacturing data and copper production figures on Monday. The levels are now well below what the market had previously predicted. Analysts at Santander projected a drop of about 2% compared to the same month last year. However, analysts from Coopeuch and ClapesUC were a little less pessimistic. They predicted a?decline in IMACEC by around 1% or 0.9%. The central bank said that the IMACEC Index registered a decrease of 1.7% on a monthly basis.
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UN official warns that the Himalayas are at risk of severe glacial flooding in the years to come
A senior U.N. official has warned that the Himalayan region is at risk of future 'glacial floods'. This comes as the death toll in Nepal's 'last' week's' flood, which was triggered by an iceberg's collapse, exceeded 1,000. Hydroelectric power is not the only thing at risk. Riverbanks, where millions of people live, could become uninhabitable. Kanni Wignaraja is an assistant secretary general at the U.N. She told?prenezzeugsprach?sprachhnen in an interview, "Technology cannot keep up to date with the U. or the U.N. In an interview, Kanni Wignaraja, assistant secretary-general at the U.N. said: "Technology cannot move fast enough to prevent loss along these massive river systems that catch the overflow of glacier lakes." Researchers found 47 glacial lakes that could be dangerous in Nepal, China, and India by 2020. Since then, the real number has been estimated to have been significantly higher. Wignaraja who is also regional director for Asia and the Pacific of the United Nations Development Programme, said that the population at risk "goes up into the millions". She cited the latest data collected by UNDP and its partner organisations in June. The devastating flood in Nepal last week was caused by a glacier that collapsed near the Langtang Lirung peak and fell to the valley's floor. This triggered a landslide which sent a wave of water down the Trishuli River. Outbursts of glacier lakes are a different phenomenon. They occur when melting glacier waters build up behind a barrier. The pressure builds until it eventually causes a rupture or overflow, causing a flash flooding downstream. U.N. officials warn that both threats are increasing as climate change accelerates the melting of glaciers in the region. This loosens rocks and puts a greater pressure on the glacier lake barriers. Wignaraja added that the region's mountain ranges are relatively young and more susceptible to tectonic movements, which can cause sudden glacier or?lake?barrier collapses. NEPAL IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON GLACIERS Researchers have discovered potentially dangerous glacial ponds in large areas of the?Hindu Kush?region. Wignaraja stated that no country in this region relies more on the glaciers to provide water and generate income than Nepal. The country is now facing "some very,?hard decisions". Many people who live near rivers may find it difficult to move higher up. The critical infrastructure will remain vulnerable. Nepal's power loss could be greater than some estimates suggest. UNDP reported that the flood had 'taken out 15 major power plants?underconstruction, in addition those already in operation. Wignaraja said that new technology could make electrical networks and hydropower stations more resistant to flooding. The "mud and ice tsunami" of last week would have overcome all defences. She said that no amount of construction could have prevented this.
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Groupa Azoty informs the prosecutor of safety violations during the launch of its flagship project in 2023
The Polish chemicals group Grupa Azoty announced on Tuesday that it had informed prosecutors of alleged safety violations during the launch in 2023 of its flagship Polimery Police Project. State-controlled chemicals manufacturer said in a press release that the Polimery Police Plant, operated by an Azoty Unit, was built without the necessary permits and under conditions that could have put employees and residents at risk. The documentation cited by the company alleged that there were a number of defects, and that permits had only been issued in 2024 - months after the plant’s?ceremonial opening. Malgorzata Crolak, Deputy CEO, said: "Our opinion is that an irresponsible test was conducted, in which?the lives and health?of residents and employees... were at risk." The project was plagued with cost overruns, delays and other issues. This was just one of many investigations that the new management at Poland’s state-controlled companies launched into their predecessors’ activities. Azoty had notified the prosecutors of alleged damages related to gas procurement contracts in February. Today, we are not judging the responsibility of any particular individual. Krolak stated that the assessment was up to prosecutor's offices. Azoty is facing financial difficulties since?late 2022 due to high gas prices and competition from cheaper imports. In November 2025, it filed its first notification regarding the history of the investment. In April, the state-owned refiner Orlen signed a preliminary agreement to take over this project.
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Oil prices fuel inflation fears, which in turn intensifies the bond selloff and stock drop.
The global bond yields reached new highs as the renewed fighting in the Middle East pushed up oil prices. Traders were preparing for an interest rate increase, which put pressure on stock markets around the world. Investors were also worried about the ever-increasing public debt. The yield on Britain's 10-year bond hit its highest level since 2008, above 5.25%. Meanwhile, the German equivalent yield reached a 15-year record at 3.36%. Ryutaro kimura, senior strategist at BNPParibas Asset Management, Tokyo, said: "I think that there is now a sense -- tinged by helplessness -- of resignation about rising interest rates." The march upward in Japanese borrowing costs has been a reliable anchor on world markets for years. The rise in oil prices, and the renewed U.S. - Iran fighting, are causing investors to worry about inflation. Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh's speech last week has also led traders to increase their bets that U.S. interest rates will rise this year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which are used as a benchmark to compare prices of different asset classes, have risen to 4,8%, their highest level since early 2025. Andrew Lilley is the chief rates strategist for Barrenjoey in Sydney. "I believe the Fed will hike in September and that it is the beginning of a?three rate hike cycle, at least." Data released on Tuesday showed that euro zone inflation increased above 3% again in August, due to rising energy costs. This supports the argument for an increase in the rate of the European Central Bank's September rate. Stocks fall as borrowing costs rise The S&P 500 futures contract fell 0.6% as bond yields rose and oil prices increased. The STOXX 600, Europe's continental index, fell by 0.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1% on Monday, as the disappointing debut of Shein Global, a clothing retailer, set the tone. Shein Global's shares dropped as much as 10% before ending the day flat. Aneeka Gupta is a senior analyst at WisdomTree. She said that higher?yields may put pressure on tech firms who are borrowing heavily in the bond market to fund AI investment. She said that the higher the yields, the more strain they put on this sector which is one of the biggest growth drivers in equity markets. "I believe that's resulting in the spillover that's taking place today?in equity market." As renewed conflict in the Middle East dampened prospects for a reopening of Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices drove global bond yields up on Tuesday. Brent crude rose by 2% to $92.10 while Europe's benchmark natural gas price increased towards its highest level since early 2023. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, has warned of further strikes against Iran following the "first exchange in fire for a month." In the meantime, increased fighting between Russia Ukraine has driven wheat prices to near three-year-highs. As bonds and stocks dropped, the U.S. Dollar gained on Tuesday. The dollar grew 0.3% against yen and fell 0.2% against the euro. According to CME’s FedWatch tool traders?priced in a 65% probability of a Fed interest rate hike in September. This is up from 40% one week earlier. The money markets also priced in a second rate hike by the ECB for this month.
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Can the Middle East help with Asia's low refined fuel imports? Russell
In August, the crisis caused by the conflict in Iran in Asia's supply of refined fuels continued. The region that imports the most refined fuels dropped to its lowest level since the start of the war. According to data compiled by Kpler - a commodities analyst - Asia's imports for light and middle distillates in August were estimated at 5,10 million barrels a day (bpd), down from 5.61 millions bpd during July. Imports have dropped by about 2 million bpd from the 7.06 million bpd average in the three months prior to February 28, when Israel and the U.S. launched aerial attacks against Iran. The market has focused on crude oil supply since the beginning of the conflict, due to the dramatic drop in the shipments that passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway was the route through which 20% of global oil supplies were transported prior to hostilities. The movement of tankers through the strait remained restricted, but there was debate over how much oil made it through. Claims by the U.S. Energy secretary that up to 9,000,000?bpd were disputed by several tracking services who saw less than half this amount. The oil market shouldn't be focused on the debate about crude volume leaving the Middle East, at least not immediately. Asia, which is the final destination of 90% of Middle East oil, has adjusted its supply to lower prices, with China, as the top buyer, cutting imports by almost 4 million bpd, and also? by reducing inventories. The real pressure comes from the middle distillates, such as diesel and jet-fuel. The market has to cope with the loss in cargoes coming from the Middle East, as well as?from Russia which has cut back on fuel shipments following the successful attack by Ukraine on several of its refineries. Singapore gasoil ended Monday at $155.15 per barrel, up 70% compared to the $91.42 it was on February 27, just before the Iran War began. On Monday, the profit margin of a typical Singapore refinery producing a barrel gasoil was $67.93. This is three times higher than the $21.90 on February 27. Gasoline has a similar dynamic. The profit is the same. For making a barrel light motor fuel end last week at $27.47 - more than threefold the $8.00 price the day before conflict began. PRODUCT FLOWS The large margins of light and middle distillates raises some questions regarding the dynamics of the market. Why do Gulf producers risk their lives by shipping crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb when they could make more money by moving refined products instead? Kpler estimates that exports of middle and light distillates from the Middle East were 2.14 million barrels per day in August. This is down from 2.58 millions in July. The average of 4,49 million bpd for the last three months, ending in February, is also 55% lower. Asia's imports are down about 2 million bpd - almost the same as if they were coming from the Middle East. In the initial phases of the?Iran war, Tehran attacked refinery sites in the Gulf. However, most of the damage was repaired. Some capacity is still offline. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are likely to have the refinery capacity? to produce the fuels needed in Asia. It may be difficult to transfer fuel from one ship to another, and there are not enough vessels available for this. This is assuming that you don't get attacked by Iranian drones or missiles. The Iran conflict has shown that the oil markets are remarkably able to adapt in difficult circumstances. The Middle East's producers could reduce the pressure on the refined product markets by exporting more fuels. This would also help to mitigate the risks of economic damage due to high prices and a limited supply. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of a columnist, who is also an author.
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SoftBank-backed SB Energy is moving closer to the public markets through its US IPO.
SB Energy, a SoftBank-backed data center developer, disclosed on Tuesday that it had seen a 66.4% increase in revenue in the first half of 2026. This comes as AI infrastructure firms flock to public markets. The company reported a loss of $3.21billion on revenue of $138.7m in the six-month period ended June 30. This compares to a loss of $215.5m on revenue $83.3m a year ago. This year, companies involved in the AI buildout are increasingly turning to the IPO markets. Hyperscalers and tech firms have invested billions of dollars to expand data centers to keep up with the soaring computing demand. The listing is a test for investor appetite?for the AI Infrastructure trade. This has been under pressure over the past few weeks due to growing concerns about the sustainability and growth of AI spending. Nvidia announced last week a long-term revenue forecast of 70% growth next year. This helped ease fears that the AI boom was fading. According to S&P Global Ratings, AI infrastructure investment is expected to reach $1.3 trillion in 2027 by the world's biggest hyperscalers. SB Energy, based in Redwood City (California), plans to sell new stock shares. The company was reported to be aiming for a valuation in excess of $50 billion. This could happen as soon as September. SB Energy was founded in 2019 and focuses on combining power generation with data centres to address AI's increasing energy needs. The company is working with OpenAI, SoftBank and other companies on a $500 Billion multi-year project to build AI data centres for training and inference. SB Energy's backlog was approximately $439 billion. NVIDIA INVESTS $1.5 BILLION FOR PRIVATE PLACEMENT According to the prospectus, Nvidia has agreed to invest $1.5billion in SB Energy through a private placement priced at the IPO. The chipmaker announced earlier this month a $1.5 Billion investment in SB Energy. It also agreed to guarantee up to $105?billion for?OpenAI to lease a vast data center being built by SoftBank-backed firm in Ohio. According to SB Energy, OpenAI also issued warrants valued at approximately $5.5 billion. As concerns?mount about so-called circular agreements between Nvidia and its customers, the?latest investment has sharpened scrutiny surrounding Nvidia's financial connections across the AI sector. SB Energy's investor base has grown this year with new investments coming from Nvidia, OpenAI and other companies. Ares Management, a private capital?firm, has been a longtime?investor. OpenAI and SoftBank invested $500,000,000 each in SB Energy earlier this year as part of Stargate Initiative. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will be among the underwriters of the offering. SB Energy will be listed on Nasdaq Texas and Nasdaq under the symbol SBE.
Met Office reports that the UK summer was the hottest ever recorded, following severe heat and drought
Met Office statistics released on Tuesday show that Britain experienced its hottest summer in recorded history. This follows a year of extreme heat and drought, which has put infrastructure, food production, and wildfire fighting capacity to the test.
According to the agency, Britain experienced record heat for the second consecutive summer, according to statistics dating back to 1884.
Since 2003, the country has experienced five of its warmest summers.
The Met Office stated that the human-induced climate changes "made it around 130 times more probable" for this summer's 16.5 degree Celsius (61.7 degree Fahrenheit) average temperature.
Mark McCarthy, head of climate attribution at the agency, stated that the UK would only experience a summer similar to 2026 once every 1,000 years in a climate without human-generated greenhouse gases.
In a recent statement, he said that "in our current climate which is changing due to the burning of fossil fuels," we can expect it to happen roughly once every nine years.
SEVERE HEAT IS NOW COMMONPLACE
The consequences of heatwaves in Britain, when compared to those in Europe where they have caused hundreds of deaths and disrupted electricity supplies as well as shut down schools, are mild.
In Britain, wildfires have been raging for years, and in some cases, homes were destroyed.
Heat and drought has also affected agriculture, with Britain's?cereal harvest on track to become the worst since similar records began in 1984.
Met Office said extreme weather is becoming more common in July.
The peak temperature in London of 38.1 C (100.58 F), on August 13, this year, was the fifth-hottest ever recorded day for the UK.
(source: Reuters)