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Fuel prices in Europe are near record levels due to refinery attacks
This week, European refiners made bumper profits for producing fuels like gasoline and diesel. A wave of?attacks against oil refineries in Russia and the Middle East further tightened supplies and raised prices worldwide. Fuel prices are rising, which is affecting consumers and businesses around the world. Fuel prices continue to rise despite crude oil falling to $90 per barrel, well below the record $147 set in 2008. This is because attacks on refineries caused by wars in Iran and Ukraine has destroyed a number of major plants which make fuels from crude. The premium that European low-sulphur gasoline futures command on crude oil prices, which effectively captures refiners' profit margin from?processing oil into diesel The price of crude oil rose to a record high of $74,66 per barrel on Thursday. The Middle East and Russia both export a lot of diesel fuel, which is used in agriculture, industry and transportation. Refinery profits for diesel production jumped earlier in July to all-time highs and have continued to rise as long as the attacks continue. Jeffrey Baird said that the market signals that refinery capacity is as important a problem now as crude oil scarcity - if not more so. Saudi Arabia closed its Jizan oil refining facility, which produces 400,000 barrels per day, on July 27, following an attack from Yemen's Houthis. According to Kpler's data, the refinery has exported over 200,000 bpd in the last three months, mainly diesel and gasoil. Kuwait's Al-Zour refinery (another major diesel producer) has also been forced to shut down parts of its 615,000-bpd capacity due to an electrical outage. Ukraine's drone strikes have also continued to?hit Russian refinery capacity, forcing the Kremlin impose a gasoline and diesel export prohibition. Lukoil Perm refinery, with a capacity of 260,000 bpd was the latest to shut down a crude distillation unit on Thursday after a drone strike. In recent weeks, gasoline?refining profits have also reached multi-year highs. The premium of Eurobob gasoline to Brent futures on Wednesday was $42.21 per barrel, not far from the 4-year high of $44.94 that was reached on July 17. According to LSEG, the margins for European jet?fuel refineries remained over $80 per barrel at 29 July. However, they were still down from their previous high of nearly $109 per barrel in March. Data shows that the margin never exceeded $80 before 2026.
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Aperam CEO: Diversification has decreased dependence on Europe
Aperam, a Luxembourg-based steelmaker, no longer depends on Europe to earn most of its earnings, but it still stands to benefit from the region's resurgence in?steel?, said Sud Sivaji, chief executive of Aperam. "We did not stand still when Europe suffered. "We diversified and transformed ourselves into this high-value material company," Sivaji explained, referring, among other things, to the group’s?Brazilian and North American distribution businesses. He said that until 2020-2021, Europe would account for around 60%-70% Aperam's EBITDA. Sivaji stated, "If you take Europe out, we would still make 60-70% of EBITDA." Aperam?expects that despite this shift, it will benefit from improved conditions in Europe where?tighter restrictions on imports?and the gradual rolling out of the EU's border carbon levy has helped to lift stainless steel prices. Sivaji anticipates that stainless steel imports will fall from the current 22%-23% to 17%-18%, creating opportunities for European stainless steel producers to gain market share. Aperam announced a?adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of EUR130 millions on Thursday. This was slightly higher than analysts' expectations, which were EUR127.3 in a LSEG poll. The company's shares fell despite the fact that it forecasted lower earnings for the third quarter due to the seasonal slowdown. Sivaji stated that "the market in Europe doesn't accept seasonality." "I am confident that this should be fine if they realize it is seasonality during the day or over the next few days." By 1327 GMT, shares, which had fallen as much as 9.1% in the early trading session, were down only 1%.
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US inflation slows down in June but is likely to reverse amid Middle East conflict
The U.S. Inflation rate slowed down in June but it is only temporary as renewed hostilities are raising oil prices. The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 3.7% over the past 12 months, after advancing an unrevised 4.1% during May. This was the largest gain since April 2023. PCE inflation increased in line with expectations. The PCE Price Index fell 0.1% month-over-month, its lowest reading since April 2020. It had risen 0.5% in May. These data were also included in the government’s second-quarter?estimate gross domestic product. This was published by the government on Thursday. The decline in PCE inflation was due to a "retreat" in oil prices, which coincided with a fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Since then, the truce has broken down. Brent oil is hovering at just over $90 per barrel while U.S. average gasoline prices have returned to above $4 a gallon. PCE Price Index excluding volatile energy and food components rose 3.3% year-over-year in June, after rising 3.4% in May. It increased 0.1% in June, excluding food and energy. In May it had risen 0.3%. For its 2% inflation target, the Federal Reserve uses PCE measures. On Wednesday, the U.S. Central Bank left its overnight benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three members of the Fed's policy-setting committee dissented in favor of a quarter-percentage-point hike. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said to reporters that the central bank will not "waver" from its commitment to bring inflation back to target. He stressed "there is nothing soft about inflation, and there is nothing soft about implicit inflation,?not under this committee's supervision." Economists predict that the Fed will raise borrowing rates?as early as September. The impact of high inflation was softened this year by generous tax refunds, but now that cushion is diminishing, setting consumer spending up for a slowdown in the second half. Consumer spending, which makes up more than two thirds of economic activity, grew 0.3% in June, after a 0.9% increase in May. Consumer spending in June increased by 0.4% when adjusted for inflation. This is the same as in May. Personal income rose 0.2% in June after soaring by 0.7% in May. After inflation, the income available to households grew by 0.3% in May. Savings rate dropped to 2.7% from 2.8%, its lowest level since 2022. Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, and Paul Simao edited the report.
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Stocks rise on tech support and US 30-year yield near 2007 peak
Microsoft's?earnings quelled AI concerns, and U.S. inflation data for June met expectations. The borrowing cost has risen to its highest level since 2007. Commerce Department data showed that the Personal Consumption Spending Price Index fell by 0.1% in June. This was compared to a 0.1% drop expected by economists surveyed by. The annual rate was 3.7% in line with the 3.7% expected by economists. Futures for the Nasdaq 100, a tech-heavy index, rose by 1.51%. The Dow and S&P 500 futures also gained 0.60 and 0.35 percent, respectively. Investors are frightened by the steep drops in shares of some of the biggest AI winners. South Korea's KOSPI dropped 1.23%, ending its third consecutive day in the red. Microsoft's and Meta's earnings confirmed that investors are looking for signs of AI payoff. Sanjiv Tumkur is the head of equity research at Rathbones. Microsoft shares rose by 9.02% before the market opened after the tech giant said that it expected to continue generating cash until fiscal 2027. Meta shares fell 10.2% after earnings that showed the strain caused by its expensive AI bets. Jefferies analysts stated that Microsoft has "hit the jet stream" while Meta is still constructing the runway. Bonds continued to be under pressure. Bonds remained under pressure. Warsh's decision to refrain from providing 'forward guidance' made it even more difficult for traders to determine the Fed's next moves. Oscar Munoz is the head of US Economics at TD Securities. He said: "The aversion of?Warsh in providing forward guidance hurts a little credibility here." "He is pointing out that the'market does the job of the Fed. But at some point, there has to be some follow through." The benchmark STOXX 600 index in Europe rose by 0.65% while the FTSE 100 in Britain was close to a new record high. The Bank of England left?interest rates at the same level on Thursday. After two sessions of losses, the MSCI All Country World Price Index grew by 0.25%. Separate data showed that the U.S. economy slowed down in the second quarter due to a growing trade deficit. However, its underlying strength remained strong.
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Sizewell Nuclear Sites are not threatened by wildfires in eastern England
Fire officials and operators said on Thursday that a wildfire in Eastern England, which was one of the largest the region had ever seen, would not affect nearby nuclear facilities, and it was unlikely to spread toward them. Sizewell C is a new nuclear reactor under construction. The Sizewell B facility, owned by French utility EDF, generates electricity. Wildfires were raging a few miles to the north of these sites. Suffolk Fire and Rescue Service has increased its response to the Dunwich Heath fire on England's East Coast. They have described it as one of the biggest incidents in county history. Authorities have said that the fire is not a threat to nuclear sites, and they do not expect the wind to change to move it towards them. The chief fire officer of the local fire service, Jon Lacey, told reporters that the terrain and land between the fire and Sizewell B or C meant that there was no'significant' fire spreading concern. He added that both sites were being monitored, and authorities were consulting with their operators. Sizewell C stated that the fire was a low-risk project due to its distance and the intervening watercourses. EDF, however, said the blaze did not affect operations at Sizewell C, which is?separated from the 'fire by a body?of?water. Angela Rayner, the housing minister, said that the government is also watching the situation and stands ready to provide support. (Reporting and editing by James Davey; Sam Tabahriti)
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Document shows that Kuwait Petroleum is offering full-range of naphtha for delivery.
Kuwait Petroleum Corp. has bid 55,000 metric tonnes of full-range naphthalene?on a spot-tender basis. The company stated that the offer was made on a delivery basis based on a ship. The company 'tender for Asian markets' stated in its offer that the "product must be intended to East of Suez, and cannot be resold, or delivered elsewhere, without the seller’s written consent. This consent shall not be unreasonable. KPC offered?naphtha free-onboard?before the U.S. war with Iran started. The first time since February, it resumed offering cargo in June. The company stated that the cargo would be delivered by a tanker LV Estia or a suitable substitute, as agreed with the buyer. Kuwait exported an average of 200,000 'barrels of naphtha per day' in the first two months of 2014, but that number plummeted down to zero by April, according to data from shiptracker Kpler. Exports have been a tiny?fraction of what they were before the war. Oil companies do not usually comment on tenders. (Reporting from Mohi Nrayan in New Delhi and Ahmad Ghaddar, London; editing by Louise Heavens & Susan Fenton).
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Outokumpu CFO: EU steel measures are not bringing in the gains expected.
Outokumpu's finance chief said on Thursday that the European Union trade measures have boosted demand in the region for steelmakers. However, higher costs for scrap metal, fuel and freight are eating into this improvement. The 'Finnish' stainless steel maker reported an adjusted core loss of EUR13million in the first quarter of 2026, but was able to recover this by reporting a profit of EUR17million for the second. This is a slight improvement over the EUR16million it earned a year ago. Marc-Simon Schaar, Chief Financial Officer, said that the EU's measures had boosted the demand for European products, which in turn, has impacted the demand for scrap, which is the primary raw material used by local producers. Subdued demand from end users has also reduced scrap production, limiting supply and pushing raw material prices higher than last year. Schaar stated that the inflation in freight costs, fuel and transportation costs also weighed on the equation. State aids to assist with EU emission-trading cost, valued at around EUR35 to EUR40 millions annually, have ended. The immediate impact of the EU's measures might also have been underestimated. The CFO stated that imports made up 17% of European steel consumption between April and May, up from 15% during the first quarter. They are likely to increase further in June, as the new safeguards will take effect on July 1. He added that after distributors restocked during the first quarter, they became extremely cautious due to the Middle East conflict, and a weakening business climate. Schaar added that the order book for September was still "a little open". Outokumpu says it expects a decline in third-quarter volumes of up to 10%. However, realised prices and the raw-material cost should be able to offset this and maintain adjusted core earnings at a stable level. (Reporting and writing by Jagoda darlak, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak).
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As markets evaluate Fed stance and Middle East tensions, gold gains as the dollar softens
Gold prices rose on Thursday, as the U.S. Dollar weakened. Investors also weighed up the Federal Reserve's decision not to change interest rates and watched the escalating tensions that may have triggered inflationary pressures in the Middle East. By 1131 GMT, spot gold had risen 0.3% to $4.076.52 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for August Delivery rose 1% to $4074.30. The move for gold is "primarily driven" by the weaker U.S. Dollar, and markets are adjusting their expectations modestly on what next moves will be made by the Fed. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated. The U.S. Dollar Index has weakened by 0.2% making greenback priced bullion more affordable to buyers abroad. Kevin Warsh, the chief of the U.S. central bank, pledged to continue his unwavering commitment in bringing inflation down. After the decision, spot gold prices increased by about 2%. The U.S. Military said that it had struck dozens Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran in response to Tehran's firing of ballistic missiles on U.S. soldiers in Jordan, Wednesday. Brent crude prices rose by more than $1 per barrel on Thursday. Staunovo stated that "to see gold rise, we need to improve?in demand for investment and this requires market participants shifting expectations towards rate reductions." Due to its lack of yield, higher rates for longer tend to reduce the appeal of bullion. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now 'pricing-in' a 63% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, down from 77% prior to Wednesday's Fed meeting. Investors ?now await June U.S. Data on Personal Consumption Expenditures is due at 1230 GMT. The World Gold Council reported that India also saw a rise in "unofficial" gold imports after the government raised import tariffs earlier this year. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar)
The popular Swiss border lake that attracts tourists is almost completely drained by the drought
Lake 'Brenets', a large, winding, long lake on the Swiss-French frontier, has been drained and rendered unnavigable since more than a fortnight amid a severe drought that has affected waterways throughout Europe.
In the summer months, thousands of tourists are transported across the lake by three boat companies.
This year, however, it is almost deserted, as the water levels of the River Doubs that feeds the lake have dropped sharply after months of little rain and three consecutive heatwaves. The latest is still underway.
Dozens of 'boats have been stranded on cracked mud. "Jumbo", a vessel used as a tourist boat, is operated by Yvan durig, the owner of?Societe des Navigations Brenets.
He said, "It is hitting us hard as we are powerless to stop it."
He has already had to lay off some of his team, and is worried about losing money for the entire year. The water level in the lake is now 9 metres (30 feet), below average, and it's falling at a rate of 22 centimetres (nine inches) per day.
MeteoSuisse, a Swiss weather agency, says that with rainfall levels about half the normal since April, this year's dry spell is comparable to the worst droughts in 1976, 2003, and 2018. The MeteoSuisse weather agency says that this year's drought is comparable to some of the worst in 1976, 2003 and 2018.
Durig stated that the frequency of droughts has increased.
He said, "These droughts occur in rapid succession. This is something we have never seen before."
The remaining water in the lake is now a?brownish color and has been reduced to a thin ribbon. Fish are confined there and two swans can be seen paddling. Residents say that a nearby waterfall, the Saut de Doubs, which flows out of this lake, is almost dry.
It's beautiful when the water is flowing. Martial Beyeler (69) said that the place is idyllic and wonderful. It makes me sad seeing the place as it is. (Reporting and writing by Denis Balibouse and Cecile Mantovani; Additional reporting and writing by Emma Farge, Alex Richardson).
(source: Reuters)